Dow 2007

[midnight*trader]

still in work at the mo but went short at 13770 early afternoon , now i've just checked to see dow dipped to 13700, DAMN!i keep missing the points this week

 

[shortorlong]

Just a hunch.....13,900 cash tonight is a possibility if and when the big hitters wake up

If it does go...it be like a rocket

cv

a timely post CV .. thanks! .. helped me to stay in a long which was just gasping for air .. now flat having collected 48 points
.. hmm maybe I should get back in on this pullback .. or .. call it a day :cheesy:

 

[Atilla]

a timely post CV .. thanks! .. helped me to stay in a long which was just gasping for air .. now flat having collected 48 points
.. hmm maybe I should get back in on this pullback .. or .. call it a day :cheesy:

Well it had to happen. Down -110 at the mo. Wondering weather to go short at 13800 again but your posts have reminded me not to add to losing positions.

Once again at the prospect of facing ridicule I'm likey to hold pos over the weekend.

If it rises next Monday and Tuesday then I'm well and truly stuffed out.

Making pips makes me more riskpro...

 

[shortorlong]

Well it had to happen. Down -110 at the mo. Wondering weather to go short at 13800 again but your posts have reminded me not to add to losing positions.

Once again at the prospect of facing ridicule I'm likey to hold pos over the weekend.

If it rises next Monday and Tuesday then I'm well and truly stuffed out.

Making pips makes me more riskpro...

bad luck Atilla .. know the feeling only too well

the dow has bashed 13800 three times now .. shouldn't it have broken through by now? not trading it

 

[Atilla]

bad luck Atilla .. know the feeling only too well

the dow has bashed 13800 three times now .. shouldn't it have broken through by now? not trading it

With gold I'm well down on the week now. Still up on the month but never easy losing pips.

Going to watch Hot Fuzz now. Great film.

 

[bottomleyp]

Hi

Just shorted Dow cash at 13798, see what next week brings.
Good Night all, have a good weekend.

Peter

 

[Hook Shot]

It's A Funny Old Game...............

Dow topped at 14164.5 on closing basis on 9th October.. (5yrs to the day of the closing low of the bear market......what a coincidence!!!)

Since that high we have fallen around 643 on closing basis and so far regained +154 from last friday's swing lows (on a closing basis)........

Rocket scientists amongst you will realise this is a lame bounce so far (sub 25%) ... So I'm inclined to think we go up today closing at least 50pts in the green.... consequently I'll be look to buy the dip......crossing my fingers for the close

But who knows really ? I'll do anything to stop Atilla calling me Mr Dow ...

Mr Dow ? suppose if the cap fits .......
Incredible week both on an off the pitch ........
"......any better would be a sin..." Bud Fox/Charlie Sheen ...Wall St ..... when I were a lad .. :cheesy:

It's been Fun....Good Night

Hs

 

[rathcoole_exile]

The stock market is now entering what has historically been the strongest half of the year. Attached chart illustrates that investing in the S&P 500 from the last trading day in October (therefore referred to as the Halloween indicator) through the end of April accounted for the vast majority of S&P 500 gains since 1950. While there are some noteworthy periods in which the Halloween indicator didn't produce (i.e. 1973-74 & 2000-01), the overall out performance is compelling ?

 

[Atilla]

Mr Dow ? suppose if the cap fits .......
Incredible week both on an off the pitch ........
"......any better would be a sin..." Bud Fox/Charlie Sheen ...Wall St ..... when I were a lad .. :cheesy:

It's been Fun....Good Night

Hs

This last week HS you have been 100% spot on. I'll be like Robert De'Nero in Meet the Fockers, watching your bloggs with two eyes.

Well done mate. Exceptional.

 

[Atilla]

The stock market is now entering what has historically been the strongest half of the year. Attached chart illustrates that investing in the S&P 500 from the last trading day in October (therefore referred to as the Halloween indicator) through the end of April accounted for the vast majority of S&P 500 gains since 1950. While there are some noteworthy periods in which the Halloween indicator didn't produce (i.e. 1973-74 & 2000-01), the overall out performance is compelling ?

Some reasons I can think of are:

1. I think pension fund managers get their bonuses calculated based on indexes at the end of the year?

2. Not many people want to be seated in front of screens on sunny days outside...

3. People work harder to stay warm in the winter...

4. People take siesta times to stay cool in the summer...

Very interesting aspect to human behaviour...

 

[rathcoole_exile]

i suppose there must be dozens or even hundreds of fundamental or cyclical reasons too ?
New car sales, Xmas shopping, heating oils sales ? I guess the list could be almost endless. Just remains to be seen if 07/08 will be a typical year with superior winter performance, or will it be one of the periods of "exception"
I guess if we could all answer that prediction correctly now, we'll all be retiring as millioinaires next Spring

 

[Atilla]

i suppose there must be dozens or even hundreds of fundamental or cyclical reasons too ?
New car sales, Xmas shopping, heating oils sales ? I guess the list could be almost endless. Just remains to be seen if 07/08 will be a typical year with superior winter performance, or will it be one of the periods of "exception"
I guess if we could all answer that prediction correctly now, we'll all be retiring as millioinaires next Spring

I was wondering if this relationship might change or weaken with milder winters?

 

[hornblower]

i suppose there must be dozens or even hundreds of fundamental or cyclical reasons too ?
New car sales, Xmas shopping, heating oils sales ? I guess the list could be almost endless. Just remains to be seen if 07/08 will be a typical year with superior winter performance, or will it be one of the periods of "exception"
I guess if we could all answer that prediction correctly now, we'll all be retiring as millioinaires next Spring

I read in the new york times on friday that in most of the usa
sup prime loans account for 14% to 25% of all loans
this will drag the markets down

 

[ajaskey]

I read in the new york times on friday that in most of the usa
sup prime loans account for 14% to 25% of all loans
this will drag the markets down

I don't think that stat is correct and don't think sub-prime has much to do with the markets. Sub-prime is just a symptom. The real problem is much larger and has to do with many banks making all loans in the past couple years with two bad qualities.

1) Leveraged
2) Borrowing short term and lending long term - works great when you can borrow short term. But when you can't borrow short term anymore, the lenders tend to call in collateral. Then you gotta sell your long loans at a discount and the whole model falls apart. The 1) Leveraged part really compounds the problem.

Here is a better explanation than I can give:
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/C/index/a/14597

 

[rathcoole_exile]

I don't think that stat is correct and don't think sub-prime has much to do with the markets. Sub-prime is just a symptom. The real problem is much larger and has to do with many banks making all loans in the past couple years with two bad qualities.

1) Leveraged
2) Borrowing short term and lending long term - works great when you can borrow short term. But when you can't borrow short term anymore, the lenders tend to call in collateral. Then you gotta sell your long loans at a discount and the whole model falls apart. The 1) Leveraged part really compounds the problem.

Here is a better explanation than I can give:
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/C/index/a/14597

blow out of Carry-Trade has a significant impact too as traders who otherwise wouldn't be selling, are suddenly off-loading to unwind JPY positions

 

[2468steve]

I read in the new york times on friday that in most of the usa
sup prime loans account for 14% to 25% of all loans
this will drag the markets down

these guys sum it up well....

http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2007/10/market-sentiment-sivs-explained.html

 

[rathcoole_exile]

these guys sum it up well....

http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2007/10/market-sentiment-sivs-explained.html

"shall I jump out the window?"

Steve, it's brilliant, thanks ! Garry

 

[lurkerlurker]

Nonfarm Payrolls, FOMC, BST

Now that BST is over, and the US aren't adjusting until next week, does that mean that the FOMC will be at 6:15PM London time, and the NFP will be at 12:30 London time? I hope not, that would be a nuisance!

 

[shortorlong]

Now that BST is over, and the US aren't adjusting until next week, does that mean that the FOMC will be at 6:15PM London time, and the NFP will be at 12:30 London time? I hope not, that would be a nuisance!

the time here: http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php
has not synchronised yet .. which is a bit confusing

I believe your times are correct ..
... interest rate 6:15pm Wednesday
... Nonfarm Employment Change 12:30pm Friday .. is this the same as NFP?

 

[lurkerlurker]

the time here: http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php
has not synchronised yet .. which is a bit confusing

I believe your times are correct ..
... interest rate 6:15pm Wednesday
... Nonfarm Employment Change 12:30pm Friday .. is this the same as NFP?

Thanks - yes that is correct - nonfarm payrolls is the Nonfarm Employment change.

If someone could let me know the correct London time for tonights NZD Trade Balance figure I'd be very much obliged.