Don't want to be mauled by the bears on this thread but this is the dow daily chart for the last three month as the market stands now.
It doesn't look like the kind of market i'd be looking to get short of still.
There might be low tides but the level is still rising if you ask me.
I'd pencil in 13,200 on the Jun fut towards the close, only 45 points above here with 90 mins of trade left.
Stephen McCreedy
It doesn't look like the kind of market i'd be looking to get short of still.
There might be low tides but the level is still rising if you ask me.
I'd pencil in 13,200 on the Jun fut towards the close, only 45 points above here with 90 mins of trade left.
Stephen McCreedy
Attachments
hobby
Active member
- Messages
- 146
- Likes
- 10
Atilla,
this just about sums up the way the US stock market 'big swinging dicks' are managing the news flow at the minute, this market update just appeared on MSN money...
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/briefing/StockTicker.asp...
"Absent a catalyst throughout much of today's sluggish session, investors have finally found something to get excited about. Oil prices plunging 2.0% heading into the close of trading on the NYMEX have helped improved sentiment enough to inch the Nasdaq above the flat line for the first since the market opened. Crude for June delivery is at $64.40/bbl amid speculation tomorrow's weekly inventories report will show a build in oil supplies as some refineries were shut down for maintenance."
I touched upon this earlier...strange how the market never mentions oil until it starts falling!
this just about sums up the way the US stock market 'big swinging dicks' are managing the news flow at the minute, this market update just appeared on MSN money...
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/briefing/StockTicker.asp...
"Absent a catalyst throughout much of today's sluggish session, investors have finally found something to get excited about. Oil prices plunging 2.0% heading into the close of trading on the NYMEX have helped improved sentiment enough to inch the Nasdaq above the flat line for the first since the market opened. Crude for June delivery is at $64.40/bbl amid speculation tomorrow's weekly inventories report will show a build in oil supplies as some refineries were shut down for maintenance."
I touched upon this earlier...strange how the market never mentions oil until it starts falling!
Bears salvation?
Could it come in th form of a H&S reversal if 13,200 isn't surpassed today.
S&P looks like H&S forming although of course you wouldn't want to jump the gun.
If 13,100 was broken a new eventual target of the bottom of the island at 12,950 looks realistic.
Based on this and the dow falling back in to it's intraday megaphone range I've gone short at 13,167.
Stephen McCreedy
Could it come in th form of a H&S reversal if 13,200 isn't surpassed today.
S&P looks like H&S forming although of course you wouldn't want to jump the gun.
If 13,100 was broken a new eventual target of the bottom of the island at 12,950 looks realistic.
Based on this and the dow falling back in to it's intraday megaphone range I've gone short at 13,167.
Stephen McCreedy
Attachments
daytradingUK
Member
- Messages
- 72
- Likes
- 1
How in God's name did we end up back in the heady heights of the 13100s when the news for today has been utter hell for US economy and no one seems to have pulled out any super results today?
The DOW is going up for no reason again (or at least no reason us mortals can see).
I wouldn't be surprised if the DOW went up to 13200 soon the way its been going there just doesn't seem to be any bad sentiment left in the market to derail the big jumps, and when it has a wobble you don't have time to don a hard hat before its back up again - much like my other nemesis the UK mining stocks.
Hope no one got burned tonight I stayed well out of it, right am off back to watch the football with a JD.
Good luck out there
The DOW is going up for no reason again (or at least no reason us mortals can see).
I wouldn't be surprised if the DOW went up to 13200 soon the way its been going there just doesn't seem to be any bad sentiment left in the market to derail the big jumps, and when it has a wobble you don't have time to don a hard hat before its back up again - much like my other nemesis the UK mining stocks.
Hope no one got burned tonight I stayed well out of it, right am off back to watch the football with a JD.
Good luck out there
hobby
Active member
- Messages
- 146
- Likes
- 10
ok, crinkly lips here (again)...Dow is totally inpenetrable. Wo betide anyone who doesn't seize the chance to collect any slim pickings within the 30 millisecond timeframe it gives you.
It's gonna take a last major bit of good news to make it blow off ...ie a massive one day spike up, only then can the correction phase can begin in earnest .
Dow up 73 on a relatively bad news flow day (again)....impossible.
Bulls 23 Hobby 0.5.
It's gonna take a last major bit of good news to make it blow off ...ie a massive one day spike up, only then can the correction phase can begin in earnest .
Dow up 73 on a relatively bad news flow day (again)....impossible.
Bulls 23 Hobby 0.5.
Atilla
Legendary member
- Messages
- 20,848
- Likes
- 4,028
daytradingUK
Member
- Messages
- 72
- Likes
- 1
Fear not with sentences like this from instituitions "Even though earnings have been pretty good, this [ISM rise] should give people encouragement that there is still room for them to grow" and "People may think there are other corporations that are that undervalued," because of the DOW bid... so the fact News Corp are paying a massive amount may make M&A people think things are rosie.
Still the real good news is the US housing slump that so far has had minimal effect on the DOW should kick in again soon what with Citigroup and Bank of America being 'asked' to set up a $1bn fund to help bail out defaulting borrowers and protect lenders. Anyone wonder why if the housing market isn't a big threat to economy (as the yanks keep trying to say)? Well because independent sources reckon it will take about $1tr off the banks if they don't, these loans are being renegotiated for free from a 25 yr loan to a 40 yr loan to try and bail the banks out of the brown creek. Could make for interesting times ahead as the Fed haven't got a scoobie what to do.
Oh and almost forgot the ISM spike is linked to the earlier spike in the Chicago figures which has since well and truly died away so short term up = longer drop
Good hunting and stay safe
Still the real good news is the US housing slump that so far has had minimal effect on the DOW should kick in again soon what with Citigroup and Bank of America being 'asked' to set up a $1bn fund to help bail out defaulting borrowers and protect lenders. Anyone wonder why if the housing market isn't a big threat to economy (as the yanks keep trying to say)? Well because independent sources reckon it will take about $1tr off the banks if they don't, these loans are being renegotiated for free from a 25 yr loan to a 40 yr loan to try and bail the banks out of the brown creek. Could make for interesting times ahead as the Fed haven't got a scoobie what to do.
Oh and almost forgot the ISM spike is linked to the earlier spike in the Chicago figures which has since well and truly died away so short term up = longer drop
Good hunting and stay safe
I know it's suicide in the making but I'm really not buying this last rally.
I think anything above 13,200 on the Jun Fut is a chance to go short and as long as you don't go in to heavy be able to ride out any upside that I think will be short spikes if anything.
I'm not betting the ranch on this and don't have anything too technical to base it on but I feel getting short if we see some data related spike isn't too risky.
I think you can use the 70 premium the Jun holds over the cash as insurance over the next seven weeks or so.
We're in May now, not usually a great time for equities and over the next seven weeks as the future has to rise less to close the gap with the cash I reckon to the short the June Fut isn't a bad idea.
In a way I feel like shorting now only in a small way and leaving till exp. I don't think it will be out of the money come 15th June.
To do this with a SB company with no associated finance costs etc wouldn't be a bad idea.
Throw £5 a point at it, expect worse case of maybe -£2,000 and cross your fingers?
Trying to second guess these daily wiggles is only making the brokers richer.
Stephen McCreedy
I think anything above 13,200 on the Jun Fut is a chance to go short and as long as you don't go in to heavy be able to ride out any upside that I think will be short spikes if anything.
I'm not betting the ranch on this and don't have anything too technical to base it on but I feel getting short if we see some data related spike isn't too risky.
I think you can use the 70 premium the Jun holds over the cash as insurance over the next seven weeks or so.
We're in May now, not usually a great time for equities and over the next seven weeks as the future has to rise less to close the gap with the cash I reckon to the short the June Fut isn't a bad idea.
In a way I feel like shorting now only in a small way and leaving till exp. I don't think it will be out of the money come 15th June.
To do this with a SB company with no associated finance costs etc wouldn't be a bad idea.
Throw £5 a point at it, expect worse case of maybe -£2,000 and cross your fingers?
Trying to second guess these daily wiggles is only making the brokers richer.
Stephen McCreedy
brutusdog
Guest
- Messages
- 759
- Likes
- 194
hi all, can't get the short bias out of my head. got out a b/e yesterday so was very cheezed off when it dropped although it came back at the end of the day.
smcreedy, what you describe in your last post was exactly the play i had in place but bought my stop to b/e as im not used to trading over a longer time frame and did not want to take a loss in the current volatility.
dinos, hope you dont mind me asking but what macd settings have you got on?
have a good day in the markets.
smcreedy, what you describe in your last post was exactly the play i had in place but bought my stop to b/e as im not used to trading over a longer time frame and did not want to take a loss in the current volatility.
dinos, hope you dont mind me asking but what macd settings have you got on?
have a good day in the markets.
Dinos
Veteren member
- Messages
- 4,113
- Likes
- 714
Brutusdog, I use the MACD histogram to see possible change of direction, and use the MACD crossover and TRIX as a warning an entry may be available to me soon, I enter my trade when my ema 8 crosses my ema 21 and keep that position open until the ema 8 crosses the ema 21 again in the other direction. Rather simple really, works great on the DJIA and Nas, have used this for years and allows me stress free trading.
Dinos
Veteren member
- Messages
- 4,113
- Likes
- 714
Possible short opportunity building RSI O/B, MACD HIsto & crossover, Trix crossover. waiting now for the ema crossover, at that point I anticiapate entering short position.
I note there are 13 people viewing this thread, anybody care to add their thoughts?
Regards
I note there are 13 people viewing this thread, anybody care to add their thoughts?
Regards
brutusdog
Guest
- Messages
- 759
- Likes
- 194
hi dinos, thanks for that been playing around with something very similar but was a bit slower than that.
re the short, with you on that one. although as i type this its gone north again. waiting to see now.
have you done pivot calcs for today? i havent worked them out yet been to busy.
cheers bd.
re the short, with you on that one. although as i type this its gone north again. waiting to see now.
have you done pivot calcs for today? i havent worked them out yet been to busy.
cheers bd.
