Dow 2007

i'm off hope you all have a succesfull day. sure it will be more fun than going to see the accountant :-(

appologies to any acountants out there...
 
Thanks hornblower are the MAs you use simple or exponential?

A 'tunnel' is new to me, can you tell me a little more of what it is?

I'm going to go and plot that set up on my charts to see how it looks.

I'm TRYING not to go any closer than an hourly chart and at some point would like to never go closer than a daily. I reckon to catch the really big moves this is the way to go.

Big size, big stops, big trends.

Not enough patience at the mo but won't to try and head that way.

Scalping becomes demoralising in the end, even though I do quite well I'm always close to self destruct through boredom!

Stephen McCreedy
 
Hornblower,

This is my S&P tunnel.

Is this what you'd expect it to look like?

I guess the name gives you different idea in your head, more like boll bands perhaps.

I guess the idea is it doesn't trade too often but when it does you can make big and lose small.

Do you use this on YM?

Stephen McCreedy
 

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I don't know about you guys but I think the DOW and FTSE are doing a UK housing market at the minute and am coming round to the idea neither DOW nor FTSE are going to put in a decent correction anytime soon - too much money floating around.

Looks like I'll have to cancel shorting the DOW and sit and hope on my mining stocks
 
Lighter volume so far today, this thing feels false but being already 120 points in the wrong direction on 1 Jun YM contract you might want to take my thoughts with a pinch of salt!

Clutching at straws or not this doesn't seem that real to me at the moment despite it beating every level I thought it wouldn't.

The bear trap that was the sub 13,100 encounter yesterday will reverse when they're all squeezed out.

I hope no one on here as buy stops in place above the market to give them an excuse to gun for higher levels!

Stephen McCreedy
 
Dow Wow Wow

Couldn't resist.

Hi all - as my username implies I created this account to read the boards, and I never had any intention of participating. I have lurked around here for a wee while now, and I am quite impressed by the quality of other trader's insight.

Great boards!

My main platform is spreadbetting at the moment. I quite fancy an IB account, but am only prepared to commit the capital when I have a proven track record. Slow executions and wide spreads or not, it is my personal belief that if you can't perform consistently spreadbetting you have no business trading anything larger.

I mostly daytrade indices, (with a few equities if the TA is right - did well shorting Vedanta Resources and other miners last week). I would like to trade proper futures soon (as opposed to the "cash bets") - I don't have the margin or the guts yet though.

I started off with TradIndex - great customer service, no problems. Unfortunately, the spreads were rather wide, and I was looking around for a better platform after tiring of trying to trade with a website and all that that implies. (plain html / javascript) Good thing I did - I had done well on the Dow yesterday, and went to cover a short by limit order. I cancelled a limit order which would have got me out at a lower price, placed a limit order at a more reasonable profit a few tics up, as I had become unsure of my position on indicator divergences and had a healthy profit. My new limit gets triggered, then my old limit which I thought was cancelled gets triggered. Probably as much my own mistake as that of the platform.

Now have an unfunded IB account, and a CMC Markets account (by accident, I opened the account on the last day of the free £100 offer). Love MarketMaker, but unfortunately it still does not run on Linux (but my machine is powerful enough to handle running Win2k under VMWare).

Then I held the trade for hours, averaged down, broke my own rules, etc. Mostly out of frustration at having a bad trade I didn't intend to execute. Real problem with my psychology there. Anyway, I took a loss of £250 at EOD, when at one point I had been up £194. Very annoyed at myself. I am trying to trade consistently with minimum drawdowns at the moment, in order to slowly grow my account and also a proven track record. An unacceptably high loss given that I am trading a £500 account. I managed to make £488 on SB equities and indices last week (Tuesday through Friday). I wanted the extra £12, so I took what could only be described as a gamble on the Dow, which cost me £150. Bad drawdown then too. Now I have eaten into last weeks profits due to failure to cancel an accidental trade. The market had moved 10 against me with a 5 point spread at £5pp - I didn't want to bail immediately, but should have done.

Anyway, I am usually more sensible than this. I intend to end the week flat if I can, and have written several pages on my yellow trading pad admonishing myself for my mistakes.

Anyway, I have a method to trade the Dow - today, for the second day in a row, I traded against it and lost. My system told me to enter at 14:41 today at 13172 - I didn't take it. Instead, I went short at 13183 (3pm, just before the manufacturing announcement - I hadn't checked the economic calendar). Silly. Covered it at 13212 (17:41).

I think I should stay out today.

Getting back to my original points. Thanks to smccreedy for his index insight and comments on these boards. To him also, my sympathies on the short - I am sure many wiser traders than me would have shorted also. I am putting this down to classic American overconfidence...

Nervous about taking a contrary position in an uptrend before a reversal.

Thanks for your contributions to a great board. If anyone has any trading advice for me, (even cliches), they can feel free to let me know. I am fairly determined to succeed and I have done well when I have held my discipline. I need to work on defining a loss and not giving my profits back to the markets in short order.

And a general question: I am using 150 period CCI, and 14 period RSI for the Dow. These settings seem to work okay, however can anyone suggest complimentary indicators and settings - I still need to work on my entries more than exits.

Finally, I suppose we are stuck with 13200 resistance now....and weaker 13232 resistance also. Glad I am out of my sub-13200 short.
 
Lighter volume so far today, this thing feels false but being already 120 points in the wrong direction on 1 Jun YM contract you might want to take my thoughts with a pinch of salt!

Clutching at straws or not this doesn't seem that real to me at the moment despite it beating every level I thought it wouldn't.

The bear trap that was the sub 13,100 encounter yesterday will reverse when they're all squeezed out.

I hope no one on here as buy stops in place above the market to give them an excuse to gun for higher levels!

Stephen McCreedy

Sorry to hear that. I got out at a loss earlier. FWIW, the new highs of the Dow have hurt my account to a few hundred pounds worth of misplaced shorts. Yesterday it closed practically on the high.

Can I ask how long you have been trading indices?
 
For what it is worth, I am thinking of placing a sell limit on the June future at 13245...

My reasoning: "Well it can't go any higher"

And I'm thinking about the profits of a quick dip to 13080 again...

I should take a break from this...
 
Don't know about catching the top, as I've probably said before, I use the crossing of the ema8 as my entry point, allows for the trend to be be confirmed, will hold the position until the ema 8 crosses up across the ema 21.

Will be looking to add more on confirmation of the 5 and 10 minutes charts
 
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still long on the dow

Me too hornblower, been long since 12,571 so looking rosey. :p

Why are some of you guys wanting to short it here ??

Now, am I missing something here … if the markets going to drop I'd want confirmation, and as I'm an EOD trader I'd want it to drop probably about 100 points for it to break any support levels (maybe a little more) but then I've been long since 12,571 so 200 points is not a big deal.

I had tried to anticipate reversals in the past and some I predicted right and some wrong, mostly wrong. Anticipation almost killed my bank, so now I want confirmation every time. :cheesy:
 
Short from 13268 on the Dow (Weekly Future) - which is 13236 on the cash.

Hopefully this rally will die before then!
 
Because some of us aren't as smart as you? I don't see confirmation here, except a few divergences with indicators...

Fundamentally speaking, the US economy is probably too weak to justify this new high.

If we are bearish, its probably because we think that the market has moved too far, too fast.
 
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