Dow 2007

[Hook Shot]

Hi HS

Excuse my ignorance, is it going up or down by how many points ?

I think the next big move will be down after an 800pt rally at current prices (pre-mkt).
Pullback often retrace 25% of the move hence my 150-200pts decline

Timing Tool is the one though since we don't often get blazing streaks like 5ub in a row as is likely .... it does happen obviously but history teaches us it often leads to pbk.

My simple theory is the streak is unsustainable.. and we must expect a daily low to be taken out shortly ... today is unlikely (but possible ) but Friday is the first real candidate ?

 

[bottomleyp]

Thanks HS

Where has the 800 pt rally come from ?
Is it from the DOW Low (A week or so ago) to present
or present to the DOW High (About 2 months ago)

 

[fibonelli]

Naked Dow (1hr chart) showing bearish wedge and close to resistance trend channel. Fibonacci retracement levels working reasonably well too.

 

[Hook Shot]

No worries.....

Thanks HS

Where has the 800 pt rally come from ?
Is it from the DOW Low (A week or so ago) to present
or present to the DOW High (About 2 months ago)

Yep low a week ago around 500/520 zone and when I posted the Dow was quoted at 320 zone...hence 800

I have said that new daily low unlikely today because Wed lows were at 13088 and we are quoted now at around 290 that would be a significant turnaround and would be very profitable for me so I'm allowing for Sod's Law.... and expect my gratification to be postponed....... but yes it could happen today..

Sorry it's a bit simplistic but I'm a simple bloke at heart :cheesy:

 

[Hook Shot]

No worries.....

Thanks HS

Where has the 800 pt rally come from ?
Is it from the DOW Low (A week or so ago) to present
or present to the DOW High (About 2 months ago)

Yep low a week ago around 500/520 zone and when I posted the Dow was quoted at 320 zone...hence 800

I have said that new daily low unlikely today because Wed lows were at 13088 and we are quoted now at around 290 that would be a significant turnaround and would be very profitable for me so I'm allowing for Sod's Law.... and expect my gratification to be postponed....... but yes it could happen today..

EDIT: I am not calling a top here ...just saying daily streak of higher highs and lows are unlikely to continue for much longer ... currently @ 4 and may get 5 today in US

Ps Sorry it's a bit simplistic but I'm a simple bloke at heart :cheesy:

 

[lurkerlurker]

Data Feed Issues

It looks like the world and its wife are having data feed issues today! Even the all powerful ECBOT feed craps out on occasion, my otFeed seems to be running 30 seconds behind, and I keep getting requoted by CMC (looks like they are having problems too!)

Looks like I'm taking the rest of the day off!

 

[dcraig1]

It looks like the world and its wife are having data feed issues today! Even the all powerful ECBOT feed craps out on occasion, my otFeed seems to be running 30 seconds behind, and I keep getting requoted by CMC (looks like they are having problems too!)

Looks like I'm taking the rest of the day off!

CBOT is down.

 

[lurkerlurker]

CBOT is down.

Thanks for letting me know!

 

[dcraig1]

Thanks for letting me know!

IB bulletin says ECBOT are planning to be back up at 12:30 US EST.

 

[lurkerlurker]

IB bulletin says ECBOT are planning to be back up at 12:30 US EST.

Oh, the advantages of having a real broker - with bulletins! That would be about now. London time, yes?

Or is that in an hour?

 

[dcraig1]

Oh, the advantages of having a real broker - with bulletins! That would be about now. London time, yes?

Or is that in an hour?

Seems it has just come up.

 

[Kevin21]

Seems it has just come up.

haha i was short. Was only planning on taking 10pts

 

[lurkerlurker]

Looks like it is back up!

 

[lurkerlurker]

TradIndex have pulled their website.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Goodness! This is one of the few days I am glad I spreadbet - looking at that gap on the YM graph makes me feel sick. How many of you immediately hedged in the ES at CME the minute the CBOT went down?

Also, what a bad day to run a spreadbetting company! I wonder how many arbs came out of the woodwork today to trade £75 a point?

 

[frugi]

What advantage would an arb have in these conditions?

 

[lurkerlurker]

What advantage would an arb have in these conditions?

SB firms would have had to take their best guess as to the value of YM even when CBOT was down, or close their markets. They would have had to guess it by the ES, or by the cash Dow (which they can't hedge in). Naturally some would do better than others, and with spreads the size they are these days it is not unthinkable for the spread of one SB firm to fall outside the spread of another. Of course, you need deep enough pockets to hold both positions to the official settlement, but I am fairly certain it would have been possible today. I don't have £10k sitting in each SB account, nor am I gutsy enough to try and trade a market where the underlying is closed, but I'm sure there are some who pulled off some nice £75pp transactions.

 

[Atilla]

What advantage would an arb have in these conditions?

Going down to 12800 imo.

I'll change my mind if 13350 is breached.

 

[lurkerlurker]

I'm short from 13197 (cash price - Ick, I know, but I'm using CMC and they don't have a daily future - yet). Target down at 13150.

 

[lurkerlurker]

I'm short from 13197 (cash price - Ick, I know, but I'm using CMC and they don't have a daily future - yet). Target down at 13150.

Ouch - I had a +15 and it came back to my entry as I was typing this. I think I'll stay in for now.....