Thoughts
Yes, it looks like I called the bottom correctly live on these forums. There is no good reason why I shouldn't have at least +20 for that (or +40).
I'm going to respond to some of the points some of you have made. It is truly amazing how many people lurk here and know just the right time to chime in and say something interesting!
Charlton - what you just did was very effective. Believe it or not, I finished Trading in the Zone last week. Some parts were difficult to get through, but I managed in the end (the dog analogy went on for a bit). I am struggling to apply any of what I learned from that book because I still do not have a single system which I use to trade. I trade mostly on a discretionary basis, and because there are so many entry and exit rules I follow (or don't) from time to time, it is impossible to have complete faith in the statistical reliability of any trade I make. I don't have anything I can back or forward test - I just have me, and I don't perform consistently. I have tried a bunch of systems - firewalker99's breakout system barely broke even, and I couldn't tweak it enough to be profitable against SB commissions, Atilla's moving average system is pretty good, but it doesn't always give enough signals for th' way I like to trade, and it seems to get me in long at tops and short at bottoms. The Tick divergence 5m YM system I tried to develop was rightly described by another T2W member as "crap". I don't have a method, and therefore my edge is dependent on what I can read about supply and demand from price and the order book. This works, but doesn't give me consistency.
Atilla - intra day trading is not for everyone. It is especially stupid when spreadbetting. I intend to leave the Dow alone for the time being, and work on position trading forex from daily and 4h bars.
Jacinto - thanks for the advice. I will go through it. Even looking at my journal reminds me of the efforts I have made, the things I have learned, and how far I have come. I don't want to give up just yet, but if I blow the few hundred I have in my CMC account I will. I am a few k into profit, but I've also given the best part of a year to doing this, so I am not letting the market take my profits back. If I blow this account, I will stop. If I recall, I have around £700 in it and trade at £1pp. I'll need around £100 for the margin.
your advice if I recall was about overtrading and not sticking to the plan. I no longer have much of a plan - that needs to be addressed. As for the overtrading - using 4h and daily charts with a plan which prohibits day trading should help. Yes, I need a plan. Half an hour ago I didn't even know what was wrong!
I've also found the post you refer to, and am rather embarrassed that I have taken 2 steps forward and 3 steps back. I am including it in this message because I believe it is something every trader should be reminded of from time to time. The first trade that I lost the -14 on tonight was a profit for awhile, and I was too busy here to be nimble enough. However, everything that followed were trading mistakes. More will follow in my journal later - I need to have another think about my trading - everything from the markets upwards. I am seriously considering trading the Turtle system, as it is entirely mechanical. One of the Original Turtles published it for free after he realised that one of the failed turtles was selling it for $5k.
Lurker,
I have tried to think about the best thing to say. I really dont want to write something that tells you what to do, or what not to do, since, at the end of the day, it will really be up to you to decide. Anyway, instead, I will post several questions, and will answer some of them the way I would answer them myself.
1) I have a plan, do I follow it? Edit: how effective is your method is a different matter...see Edit note below
2) My plan has rules, do I break them?
yes, at times.
3) When I break rules, is there any sort of "enforcement of discipline"
yes. depending on the rule broken, enforcement goes from no trading during the day, to no trading during the week.
4) Do I have a set # of losing trades i can take? yes, if i get 2 losing trades in a row, i take a break. if i have a third losing trade, i stop for the day. if i have 2 losing days in a row, i take 1 day break. etc.
5) Do I have a % of capital I am willing to put at risk in one day (this is related to rule4)? yes. going beyond it implies that "rule enforcement" in rule 4 applies immediately and stop trading for the day.
whenever the "no more trades" applies, I go and have a think of what i am doing wrong.
Basically, there is a need to enforce self control.
1) never chase a profit you missed
2) never chase a loss
I dont know what is worse
a) the feeling of a loss
b) to have entered a trade, and let profit go.
anyway, just writing thoughts. I am not trying to write an essay, or recomendations. just some points to think about. I may be extremely wrong about what I am writing, but at the moment think it is a sensible thing to think of.
take care, and do take a break tomorrow.
j
Edit: The fact that your plan incorporates a method is crucial. If the method is good or not, that is a different matter. Only backtesting or forward testing will say. the key thing is self control and discipline. Firewalker has actually made this point. He is spot on.
Quite recently, I worried that despite my intentions, I would no longer be able to afford to continue trading. The market saves me from this possibility by providing large windfall profits which absorb my initial losses many times over. I try not to read into things like that, but it would be a real shame to stop now. At least I am now in the position where I have managed to make some money overall, so if I quit this (without giving it all back), there will be something to hold onto - it was an interesting and challenging experience which only cost my time.
Once again, thank you to everyone who has offered advice and assistance - it is most deeply appreciated.
