Dow 2007

my 1st tgt on dow 12783 and 2nd tgt 12094.

Stoped out of WFMI
 
Last edited:
Some FREE info

Short Term Dow

The Dow closed the day within a fairly tight range from 13,200 to 13,350, seen in the 5 Minute Chart. Watch this zone closely for early direction tomorrow morning.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we are out of the market and will watch 13,350 up, and 13,100 down; using 20 point stops.


BULLISH Probability - Intermediate trend possibly bullish, Mild uptrend.
Probability - Oversold, odds favor long trades.
Confirmation - Extreme 3 day distribution, but when the stock is oversold this is considered bullish.
Probability - Strong Down trend (1 month), may start to turn sideways.
Confirmation - at support


BEARISH Probability - Mild bearish 3 day chart pattern.


SUMMARY 3 bullish probability indicators. 3,
2 bullish confirmation indicators. Very Mild Outperform, short term (1-6 wks)

1 bearish probability indicators. 65%, Bullish
---- 35%, Bearish




RALLIES/PULLBACKS Typical: 3.8% (500.8 pts) stock price move occurs 25% of the time.
** Current price area Extreme: 4.9% (651.05 pts) stock price move occurs 5% of the time.
 
stock price move occurs 25% of the time.

Hi Pat -- Thanks for the info. Exactly what does the above mean please ?


Thanks ..........
 
Hi Guys and Gals,

Here's my weekend analysis of the DJ30.

Pluses
continual momentum and volume divergence (yellow markings)
still above uptrend channel
hammer/doji type formation on 10 Aug (thanks to the Fed!)

Minuses
downtrend channel formation
fib 61.8% rejection

My own view is of a test of the upper boundary of the downtrend channel with extreme volatility. If we use the Feb/Mar waterfall as a guide, note the hammer type candle in March07 (blue mark) which led to several up days.

enjoy

very unlikely.

very poor market action in the last 1 hr of trading last night and yuck today! :LOL:
 
good call :cool:

Thanks for that mate. I'm having a ****ty week. My SB trades on the Dow are all going to dealer intervention, which takes ages and only seems a wee bit biased (fill if price 20 points against, "invalid price" if price 20 points in my favour).

A lot of my trades are short term, and aside from a few hour long position trades this, and the uncertainty of not knowing if I am in a position for the best part of a minute is killing my bottom line. That looks like the only good trade I will make today.

I suppose it is okay if everyones index trades are going to dealer intervention, and it isn't just mine, but I don't know...I'm a natural cynic...

Dead cat bounce coming up, or will we see weakness below 13,100?
 
Thanks for that mate. I'm having a ****ty week. My SB trades on the Dow are all going to dealer intervention, which takes ages and only seems a wee bit biased (fill if price 20 points against, "invalid price" if price 20 points in my favour).

A lot of my trades are short term, and aside from a few hour long position trades this, and the uncertainty of not knowing if I am in a position for the best part of a minute is killing my bottom line. That looks like the only good trade I will make today.

I suppose it is okay if everyones index trades are going to dealer intervention, and it isn't just mine, but I don't know...I'm a natural cynic...

Dead cat bounce coming up, or will we see weakness below 13,100?

which s/b firm is that lurker?
 
Thanks for that mate. I'm having a ****ty week. My SB trades on the Dow are all going to dealer intervention, which takes ages and only seems a wee bit biased (fill if price 20 points against, "invalid price" if price 20 points in my favour).

A lot of my trades are short term, and aside from a few hour long position trades this, and the uncertainty of not knowing if I am in a position for the best part of a minute is killing my bottom line. That looks like the only good trade I will make today.

I suppose it is okay if everyones index trades are going to dealer intervention, and it isn't just mine, but I don't know...I'm a natural cynic...

Dead cat bounce coming up, or will we see weakness below 13,100?

Hi, are you using CMC? I've found over the last 6 weeks they have gone from filling within 5 seconds to anything up to 30-40 seconds, which as you say, they are using to their advantage.
 
CMC too!

Hi, are you using CMC? I've found over the last 6 weeks they have gone from filling within 5 seconds to anything up to 30-40 seconds, which as you say, they are using to their advantage.

You're joking! I've just wired some funds to them, and was about to use them for the Dow while the other bucket shop sorts themselves out.

I'm getting pretty sick of this. I decided to try telephone trading (I can buy or sell at a price, and I know I am getting that price) with that bucket shop instead, but that went pear shaped when the dealer made several mistakes with my order and I was on the phone for 15 minutes trying to sort it out as they were deciding to start opening and closing positions on my account. So, it looks like you get messed about with on Internet trading with dealer intervention, and phone trading is useless also. I would postulate that the dealers are making mistakes due to the ridiculously high volume of orders that they are having to deal with now that automatic fills have been disabled on index futures.

To be fair and balanced: usually, the dealers at the firm in question are very professional. I put todays mistake down to being too busy. Also, they have adjusted my account to what the balance should be had their dealer not made a mistake. I am awaiting further information as I have reported the issue in writing (due to the contract terms on disputed bets).

To be further fair and balanced, I've had an account with this lot for six weeks and it feels like I know half their staff personally. This is not necessarily a good thing, when you are having to call to complain about bad fills, sloppy quotes, phantom cash adjustments in your account (turns out they were having problems with their payment processing provider), trades reversed on bad price (turns out they were having problems with their pricing engines), etc etc.

I may name this bucket shop in due course, and am seriously considering closing my account. If I feel the need to do so, I will be starting a thread here, complete with dates, times, issues, screenshots, other verifiable stuff for your viewing pleasure (or to give the Direct Market "Masters of the Universe" something to laugh at).

Meanwhile, recommendations for a DMA broker who does the YM and offers accounts to British folk would be appreciated. Preferably one which does not require a deposit of $50k or evidence of $100k liquid funds.

Once again, I am reminded that I trade in a bucket shop.

bucket shop
n.
1. A fraudulent brokerage operation in which orders to buy and sell are accepted but no executions take place. Instead, the operators expect to profit when customers close out their positions at a loss.
 
You're joking! I've just wired some funds to them, and was about to use them for the Dow while the other bucket shop sorts themselves out.

I'm getting pretty sick of this. I decided to try telephone trading (I can buy or sell at a price, and I know I am getting that price) with that bucket shop instead, but that went pear shaped when the dealer made several mistakes with my order and I was on the phone for 15 minutes trying to sort it out as they were deciding to start opening and closing positions on my account. So, it looks like you get messed about with on Internet trading with dealer intervention, and phone trading is useless also. I would postulate that the dealers are making mistakes due to the ridiculously high volume of orders that they are having to deal with now that automatic fills have been disabled on index futures.

To be fair and balanced: usually, the dealers at the firm in question are very professional. I put todays mistake down to being too busy. Also, they have adjusted my account to what the balance should be had their dealer not made a mistake. I am awaiting further information as I have reported the issue in writing (due to the contract terms on disputed bets).

To be further fair and balanced, I've had an account with this lot for six weeks and it feels like I know half their staff personally. This is not necessarily a good thing, when you are having to call to complain about bad fills, sloppy quotes, phantom cash adjustments in your account (turns out they were having problems with their payment processing provider), trades reversed on bad price (turns out they were having problems with their pricing engines), etc etc.

I may name this bucket shop in due course, and am seriously considering closing my account. If I feel the need to do so, I will be starting a thread here, complete with dates, times, issues, screenshots, other verifiable stuff for your viewing pleasure (or to give the Direct Market "Masters of the Universe" something to laugh at).

Meanwhile, recommendations for a DMA broker who does the YM and offers accounts to British folk would be appreciated. Preferably one which does not require a deposit of $50k or evidence of $100k liquid funds.

Once again, I am reminded that I trade in a bucket shop.

bucket shop
n.
1. A fraudulent brokerage operation in which orders to buy and sell are accepted but no executions take place. Instead, the operators expect to profit when customers close out their positions at a loss.

THEY ALL THE SAME......Last one I traded with was Worldspreads....If you win money off them look out, THEY TAKE IT BACK OFF YOU WITH THEIR SILLY RULES & TRICKS

I will be taking them to court if I dont win my fight with FOS.
 
LL, Have you tried Interactive Brokers?

Not yet - last I heard they were wanting evidence of quite a bit of liquid funds ($100k USD) and a £10k deposit.....if this isn't the case, I'd be happy to try them out.

Any other suggestions?
 
THEY ALL THE SAME......Last one I traded with was Worldspreads....If you win money off them look out, THEY TAKE IT BACK OFF YOU WITH THEIR SILLY RULES & TRICKS

I will be taking them to court if I dont win my fight with FOS.

Laptop, would you care to tell us (or better yet start a seperate thread) what exactly WS did to you, and what points you are contesting with the FOS? Good going taking them to Court if they have really shafted you ... I think bucket shops rely on the fact that most people can't be bothered, and the amount in dispute is usually too small to be worth paying solicitors.
 
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