Dow 2007

Pretty serious stuff indeed

2468steve said:
too literally m8...was a lighthearted comment.....

On a serious note tho'......it's not sub-prime debt anymore...but how CDO's are structured and priced....AAA debt is being discovered to be no better than junk,where the riskier debt is being hidden in mezzanine tranches of AAA....this means that when the holders of such debt now mark to market at months end the bid is pulled making it all effectively worthless....there will be more horror stories towards each month end going forward as these CDO's have to be valued...problem is how can you value something for which there's no buyers...
Click to expand...

What was is Buffet called 'em Weapons of Financial Destruction.......:LOL:

Was meant to do some more homework in prep for tomorrow but the Stella won't let me continue I bid you good night and happy hunting.........
 
2468steve said:
LL,
what is it ...some sort of commodity fund ??
Click to expand...

Yes, a commodity fund. The first issue, CED I, (CED.L), did rather well. More information from the blurb:

Fund Objective

The objective of the Close Enhanced Commodities Fund II("the Fund") is to provide a geared exposure to any increase in the value of a notional portfolio of commodities, combined with full capital protection on redemption.

The Fund has a six year life and provides a capital amount of 100 pence per Share on the Redemption Date as well as a growth amount equal to two times any percentage increase in the End Value of the Commodity Portfolio relative to its Start Value. The End Value will be the average value of the Commodity Portfolio over the one year period ending on 31 May 2013.

The Commodity Portfolio is a notional portfolio of commodities equally split by value on the Start Date between oil, copper, aluminium, zinc, nickel, sugar, corn and wheat​

It looked a good buy at the time, it has some institutional interest, and the shares went up 5% when they floated. I should have taken my profit then I guess, but I did get this with the expectation of holding it for 6 years. However, perhaps I would be better just to trade the futures (or options on futures) myself....
 
Hook Shot said:
What was is Buffet called 'em Weapons of Financial Destruction.......:LOL:

Was meant to do some more homework in prep for tomorrow but the Stella won't let me continue I bid you good night and happy hunting.........
Click to expand...

Yes, he was referring to credit derivatives. I am quite sure he is considering buying some "cheap" blue chips right now. "Be greedy when others are fearful". Truly a great investor...

Oh, and no laptops in bed!
 
2468steve said:
LL,
what is it ...some sort of commodity fund ??
Click to expand...

freezing funds just prevents redemptions...bit like a run on the bank....the funds claim this is to protect investors so that their assets are fairly valued and will achieve a true price when sold...in reality no one wants the stuff unless at maybe 10c on the dollar which effectively makes the funds bust and the investors potless....
 
out of interest I'll have a closer look at that fund 2row LL,.....bed for me too now.....I think we're all gonna need to be sharp 2row....

nite guys...
 
Yes, indeed. I think I will sleep a little later than usual, although I'll then miss some of the Euro movement on the Dow. However, there will be enough pips in the cash I do believe....
 
The top is in

I think we've seen a top in the Dow now. The best it will manage are a few failed tests of 14,100, and more bouncing about in this range before making a lower low. See attached weekly charts of Dow (and S&P). Note the similarities in the price action preceding the top in mid 1999.
 

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firewalker99 said:
my guess is 13200 (fut) will get smashed tomorrow...
possibly even premarket

and if it doesn't, I'll just repeat this post at a later date lol
Click to expand...

just having a look over lunch and I see we are at 13180
my crystal ball still works like a charm :cheesy:
 
Out of the GBPJPY trade for +71 pips net of spread. BE on the Dow short unfortunately - stop was at 13207 - BE - and the top tick. Dow has since gone down over 60 points. Livid. I've used up one of my five Dow trades today - better make the rest count. I did move the stop to BE at +20, and the market settled around 80. At that point, I thought I would be wrong if the market came up 30 odd points. We live and learn I guess.
 
The silence is defining....How you guy are ok,, how about you Kev I be you made over a 1000 points today.
 
Right. This belongs in my journal, but 4/5ths of this is Dow related. I made my 5 trades today. 3 premarket, 2 in the cash session. I did the Yen trade I put the order in for at 2am, but I had to manually enter it as I had cancelled the order. Got out at 236.70 for +80. Exit signal was failure to break below the last 5m bar, and gut instinct that a 4 month low had been made and the market had not responded to the price. I got out within 30 tics of the LOD.

Dow - Short 13207 premarket, stopped for BE. Took the entry again, was wrong, out for -22. Took another Short at around 8pm, covered for +4 (this was before it broke 200 up and rallied before the close).

I more short from 13323 in the last few minutes, covered at 13280 (time limit), even though I thought it would break more. +42.

+106 for the day
Trades: 5 (kept my discipline)
Wins: 3
Losses: 2 (including 1 BE, Win> Losses)
Average win: 42
Average loss: 22 (I'm even getting that right.
Net: +106

Have a great weekend all!

Those of you who saw my recent posts regarding discipline and overtrading will be as pleased with my results today as I am. I am going to read some trading books over the weekend, and be positive about my trading today!
 
laptop1 said:
The silence is defining....How you guy are ok,, how about you Kev I be you made over a 1000 points today.
Click to expand...

Hi guys,

I am still eyeballing this thread and in the closing bit of the session managed a mega +29
That's after almost being down by same amount as got move wrong at the start.

Really enjoying the turbulance.

Disagree with BoE perspective on sub-prime market impact. Housing market as I have said before is the biggest multiplier in economy. To say, whether in US or UK will not effect economy is nonsense, or irresponsible underestimation of it's impact. Long over due and necessary imo.

Time will tell.
 
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