Dow 2007

[jacinto]

That's the problem with the DOW. It always looks like a downer and then it comes back up like those horror movies or scary thrillers where the bady always comes back from the dead for one more lethal attack.

Watching it and it's already at 13440. It's making a ladder to 13500 already and we are only 20mins into the session.

oops, went back up. there goes the yen pips from the morning.

 

[Atilla]

Hi Atilla, my "longs only" days are officially over, but I'm still looking to a secondary high or lower top next month. Anyway, let's focus on the short term, how do you calculate that 61% pullback? If I measure the distance from highest point to low from the fall I think we just about retraced 50% from the move (we need about +/- 25 points higher for that)?

Hi FW, I wouldn't give up on the longs just yet. I felt so strong about going long around 13300 levels last week and now wish I had. I know it dropped to 13220+ etc I should have jumped on board at the rebound. Head case that I am. Like a moth to the flame I'm drawn to a position that I know is going to burn me. Dope!

 

[2468steve]

Hi FW, I wouldn't give up on the longs just yet. I felt so strong about going long around 13300 levels last week and now wish I had. I know it dropped to 13220+ etc I should have jumped on board at the rebound. Head case that I am. Like a moth to the flame I'm drawn to a position that I know is going to burn me. Dope!

I'd expect a retest of those lows..... when is the hard bit

 

[Atilla]

I'd expect a retest of those lows..... when is the hard bit

Perhaps today will be trending sideways and tomorrow or Wednesday may see some action.

I'm sitting out. I haven't a clue at the mo.

 

[2468steve]

Perhaps today will be trending sideways and tomorrow or Wednesday may see some action.

I'm sitting out. I haven't a clue at the mo.

sitting out also.......380 - 440 is the range to break either way

 

[firewalker99]

long 13510 fut

 

[2468steve]

George Dubya is told by his Chief of Staff that 3 Brazillian soldiers have been killed in Iraq......Dubya paces around the White House,head held in his hands,looking gutted.
He turns to his Chief of Staff and asks..."3 Brazillian,how many is that exactly ?"

 

[barjon]

long 13510 fut

bold move, mon ami

 

[Atilla]

bold move, mon ami

I think last week we had the EW 1-2-3-4-5 wave down.

This week we'll see A-B-C pull back to 61% or less - guessing max of 13500.

Then next week we'll know which way direction will be and extent of it.

If we have any EW chartists your views would be much appreciated.

Has anyone heard from our friend Bez as he hasn't posted for quite some time?

 

[firewalker99]

bold move, mon ami

hi there barjon
didn't know you were interested in dow too, welcome
btw, stop & first target are respectively 10 and 20 pts

 

[firewalker99]

long 13510 fut

there you go, target hit, out with +20

 

[barjon]

hi there barjon
didn't know you were interested in dow too, welcome
btw, stop & first target are respectively 10 and 20 pts

fire

oh, i like to keep a surreptitious eye on what you guys are up to - i've finished for the day

good trading - oops boom and out, nice one fire

jon

 

[firewalker99]

fire

oh, i like to keep a surreptitious eye on what you guys are up to - i've finished for the day

good trading - oops boom and out, nice one fire

jon

hope you had a good day on ftse, looks like a pretty narrow range today

ps: I hope you like what you're seeing then on this thread

 

[firewalker99]

there you go, target hit, out with +20

second target out at 13540, +30, = +50
be back later

 

[shortorlong]

Firewalker, you were long 13510 fut at 3:20 .. CMC's US 30 was 13410 approx @3:20 .. and capitalspread's Wall Street rolling daily was about the same, that's a big difference .. I thought that the US30 and the Wall street rolling daily was based on a value for the real index which followed the futures .. is this wrong? I guess you may not know the answer to this as you may not have used those instruments .. maybe someone who has access to capital spreads or CMC can elucidate this point.

 

[firewalker99]

Firewalker, you were long 13510 fut at 3:20 .. CMC's US 30 was 13410 approx @3:20 .. and capitalspread's Wall Street rolling daily was about the same, that's a big difference .. I thought that the US30 and the Wall street rolling daily was based on a value for the real index which followed the futures .. is this wrong? I guess you may not know the answer to this as you may not have used those instruments .. maybe someone who has access to capital spreads or CMC can elucidate this point.

hi shortorlong, don't think your quotes are wrong

We just rolled over to the september futures contract and there's always a big discrepancy at first. When the expiration date comes closer, cash & futures price converge (as you will have noticed by the June fut prices last week that were much closer to cash than is the case with Sep).

 

[barjon]

hope you had a good day on ftse, looks like a pretty narrow range today

ps: I hope you like what you're seeing then on this thread

fire

yeah, ok - some decent individual moves in the constituent shares suited me.

you still got part running or did you close the lot?

jon

 

[2468steve]

Firewalker, you were long 13510 fut at 3:20 .. CMC's US 30 was 13410 approx @3:20 .. and capitalspread's Wall Street rolling daily was about the same, that's a big difference .. I thought that the US30 and the Wall street rolling daily was based on a value for the real index which followed the futures .. is this wrong? I guess you may not know the answer to this as you may not have used those instruments .. maybe someone who has access to capital spreads or CMC can elucidate this point.

apologies if pre-empt FW,but we now trading Sept.....so cost of carry reflected in price.

cheers

 

[firewalker99]

fire

yeah, ok - some decent individual moves in the constituent shares suited me.

you still got part running or did you close the lot?

jon

glad to hear

I closed second part about 10min ago, see post #3214
did not leave anything open... you think I should have? perhaps split exits in 3?

flat now

 

[barjon]

glad to hear

I closed second part about 10min ago, see post #3214
did not leave anything open... you think I should have? perhaps split exits in 3?

flat now

yeah, sorry didn't spot the earlier post. nice going, fire.

no, just interested. i stick to two as well, lifting stop on the second to at least breakeven but usually better than that.

jon