Dow 2007

[tricks]

That's on the cash, engulfing candle on the 5 min. Are we going for 700 or not? Stop 95.
I hope not. I'm nervous about this one!

Out for +3.7. Should have taken the 'futures'! Ah well, a profit is a profit!

 

[Kevin21]

I'm pretty chuffed that i got out nearly bang on at the right time...

 

[lurkerlurker]

I'm glad I made those points from the opening, but since then I've stayed out, just to narrow to trade, and no much volume neither.

You're up +80 in a single session!? Impressive!

It appears I will eventually find a system which appears good based on the last few weeks and general bullishness which will stop working the minute this market tops! I've seen a few long entries on my system today also - looking forward to finally paper trading it.

Will post more later this evening.

 

[firewalker99]

SL kicked in. -20.

Do you think long @ 680 is a good price on CMC Cash SBet? Given my target would be 700 might not risk it. Especially with half an hour to close.

Will save bet for tomorrow.

You are right FW the volatility was just right coupled with the narrow range today. Could see it like crystal clear water but failed to take the opportunities.

I almost went long at 635 after it started rising but the head obstructed the eye and finger coordination.

Had some internet connection issues last hour... webpages wouldn't load hmm.

Anyway, 680 cash would've been rather late long imo, so close to resistance.
I usually don't trade last half hour, or make sure I exit my positions. Price sometimes tends to act "strange" in the closing stages, although it's more noticeable on NQ and ER2 than on the YM.

 

[firewalker99]

W D Firewalker, I see you have perfect understanding of the phase of market we are in..The shame is, we are less than convincing in our arguments as to why shorts are a no no.....ah well ...there we are

C V

Thanks cv, yes once again longs were pretty much the name of the game again today.
I think the shorters will turn around once the market has started to decline

 

[lurkerlurker]

Had some internet connection issues last hour... webpages wouldn't load hmm.

Has that cleared up, or would you like some help with it?

 

[firewalker99]

You're up +80 in a single session!? Impressive!

It appears I will eventually find a system which appears good based on the last few weeks and general bullishness which will stop working the minute this market tops! I've seen a few long entries on my system today also - looking forward to finally paper trading it.

Will post more later this evening.

Thanks, I got some good longs at the open. I also did a "single entry, single exit" today, because I've been tweaking my system a bit and found out that a lot of my trades in the first hour return back to my entrypoint. Some don't and today I could have left a small position on till the end of the session.

Be careful when optimizing your system not to suit it to the last couple of weeks alone. You need to backtest under different circumstances. And if you've found something that works reasonable well, there's no reason why the same principles wouldn't work in a bear market. Basically you will want to have something that works good in ranging days and in trending days. Good luck on that papertrading.

 

[firewalker99]

Has that cleared up, or would you like some help with it?

No it's okay thx, as you can see I'm posting again

 

[lurkerlurker]

Thanks, I got some good longs at the open. I also did a "single entry, single exit" today, because I've been tweaking my system a bit and found out that a lot of my trades in the first hour return back to my entrypoint. Some don't and today I could have left a small position on till the end of the session.

Be careful when optimizing your system not to suit it to the last couple of weeks alone. You need to backtest under different circumstances. And if you've found something that works reasonable well, there's no reason why the same principles wouldn't work in a bear market. Basically you will want to have something that works good in ranging days and in trending days. Good luck on that papertrading.

I seem to be introducing too much complexity. I can see me sitting here still slaving over the detail of this system three weeks from now.

Would it be worthwhile to add some sort of filter for determining between ranging days and trending days, and use different rules accordingly? What form could this filter take? For example, if there is an opening gap of >30 tics, and NYSE Tick remains positive (negative) for the first hour, it is a bullish (bearish) trending day?

 

[firewalker99]

First of all, good analysis lurker.

Is the 1500 lot bar just after eight PM on the 1 minute chart what firewalker refers to as a stopping bar in the volume thread?

I think you typed a mistake there somewhere because I see only 1 1500 lot bar on the YM 1-minute chart and that's around 20:23.

The "stopping bar" at 19:35, combined with the failure of the ES to challenge resistance and the divergence on Tick would have made for another nice long from 650.

Yes, very clear bar, look at the long wick and much more volume than any of the previous bars. Best thing to do is wait for the next bar for confirmation and if you look at the 1-min chart you still had a couple of minutes to get a nice and early long entry before the moving began.

 

[firewalker99]

I seem to be introducing too much complexity. I can see me sitting here still slaving over the detail of this system three weeks from now.

Would it be worthwhile to add some sort of filter for determining between ranging days and trending days, and use different rules accordingly? What form could this filter take? For example, if there is an opening gap of >30 tics, and NYSE Tick remains positive (negative) for the first hour, it is a bullish (bearish) trending day?

Difficult to say... If you could tell before what kind of day it was going to be, it would be all too easy

Today was basically an uptrending day, but with pretty small swings.

What I look for is a breakout of an important resistance area. If that happens, price is most likely going to pull away and never look back. It might do one pullback and then you have your high probability long, but after that focusing on longs can do the trick. In ranging days you are more stuck between two price levels, although they can be quite flexible... My weakness is leaving a lot of points on the table in trending days, while trying to squeeze out too much sometimes in ranging days.

 

[lurkerlurker]

First of all, good analysis lurker.



I think you typed a mistake there somewhere because I see only 1 1500 lot bar on the YM 1-minute chart and that's around 20:23.

No, that is the bar I refer to - I don't suppose saying "after eight" was terribly clear though - sorry - you can see the bar on the 1 min chart at 20:23 on the chart I posted. Sorry.

 

[firewalker99]

No, that is the bar I refer to - I don't suppose saying "after eight" was terribly clear though - sorry - you can see the bar on the 1 min chart at 20:23 on the chart I posted. Sorry.

Oh I see. In that case, I'd have to say no, it's not a stopping bar. The first one isn't a very clear stopping bar neither although the price & volume action does indicate more or less a shake-out.

For me (but you can have or use your own specific definitions) a stopping volume bar occurs in a downmove, not in an up- or sideways ranging market. By nature the bar "stops" the downmove or at least puts heavy braking on it.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Oh I see. In that case, I'd have to say no, it's not a stopping bar. The first one isn't a very clear stopping bar neither although the price & volume action does indicate more or less a shake-out.

For me (but you can have or use your own specific definitions) a stopping volume bar occurs in a downmove, not in an up- or sideways ranging market. By nature the bar "stops" the downmove or at least puts heavy braking on it.

Okay, thanks. Next area for discussion: "Stopping Bars as Long Signals" (okay, bad joke).

Sorry if this sounds a little silly, but do you have a specific definition of "important resistance area"? Are we just talking about round numbers here? I find it difficult to call any area as resistance this high up.

Do you just rely on price and volume of the YM? I am leaning towards a system whereby I use the ES chart as well as the YM chart, and keep an eye on NYSE Tick to confirm moves (or signal early reversals). Settings etc are in the widescreen image in my earlier post. Am I on totally the wrong path with this?

 

[firewalker99]

Okay, thanks. Next area for discussion: "Stopping Bars as Long Signals" (okay, bad joke).

Not at all, if you focus on stopping volume bars alone, you might already have yourself a system. I didn't say they would work most of the time, but if you have rigid rules about stops & targets, I think you could turn it into a profitable system. Like I said, it can be simple. Really simple.

Sorry if this sounds a little silly, but do you have a specific definition of "important resistance area"? Are we just talking about round numbers here? I find it difficult to call any area as resistance this high up.

What's "Important" to one trader might not be so important to another. It all depends... if you see price going up to a specific price level but see a very strong reaction off that level on high volume you should take note of this. A lot of orders are set there. However the whole principle of support, resistance and resistance becoming support & viceversa is best treated elsewhere or we could go on about this for hours But in the current market phase it's probably more important to focus on buying from support rather selling from resistance.

There's a good thread on these concepts:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=20336
Especially post #5 and the charts from the beginning of the thread.

Do you just rely on price and volume of the YM? I am leaning towards a system whereby I use the ES chart as well as the YM chart, and keep an eye on NYSE Tick to confirm moves (or signal early reversals). Settings etc are in the widescreen image in my earlier post. Am I on totally the wrong path with this?

Yes I use only PV.
Whether you are on the right path is something only you can know. It looks promising, but you need to backtest and papertrade it. Otherwise you won't have the necessary confidence to trade it live using real money.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Not at all, if you focus on stopping volume bars alone, you might already have yourself a system. I didn't say they would work most of the time, but if you have rigid rules about stops & targets, I think you could turn it into a profitable system. Like I said, it can be simple. Really simple.



What's "Important" to one trader might not be so important to another. It all depends... if you see price going up to a specific price level but see a very strong reaction off that level on high volume you should take note of this. A lot of orders are set there. However the whole principle of support, resistance and resistance becoming support & viceversa is best treated elsewhere or we could go on about this for hours But in the current market phase it's probably more important to focus on buying from support rather selling from resistance.

There's a good thread on these concepts:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=20336
Especially post #5 and the charts from the beginning of the thread.



Yes I use only PV.
Whether you are on the right path is something only you can know. It looks promising, but you need to backtest and papertrade it. Otherwise you won't have the necessary confidence to trade it live using real money.

That last part is very important, especially for me. I'm sitting on a tiny account with 80% drawdowns from the highs, no rigid strategy, and only 6 months trading experience. I'm not fond of paper trading, however I think that may be the only way to achieve confidence in a system. (The system is still unfinished)

I've been reading an interesting series of articles by Brett Steenbarger entitled Blueprint for an Uncompromised Life. This may make interesting reading for some traders here.

A quick thought. I've noticed some pained shorts on this thread of late. I would refer everyone back to my first ever thread. I held this bearish view when I made that post around 1 month ago. I have learned a lot in that time, and the most important lesson has been to discount fundamentals. I'm always amused by firewalkers responses to news. For example, to paraphrase a recent post: "China what? Long on the Dow futures" and "....out, +40".

I am sure the shorts will be vindicated eventually, but why deny yourselves opportunities to profit from longs before the markets actually turn? (I wonder if Icahn is still short USG) My apologies if this sounds preachy, and especially from a backseat trader, but there is nothing to be gained by trying to pick the top.

This week we've seen a new trader here take a £2pp short on the September futures to allow himself more time to let a losing trade run. Nobody is perfect, but suffice to say some losses are easier to explain than others. Okay, the Dow could drop to 12000 by September, but that would not retroactively justify the decision to take a long term short at this point in the market.

Firewalker - thanks for the comments and the links.

Good trading all.

 

[Atilla]

Short @ 13627, SL @ 13657.

Target - below 13600 - 13550 looks good.

 

[firewalker99]

Short @ 13627, SL @ 13657.

Target - below 13600 - 13550 looks good.

dax is on support, the obvious target from a pullback...
strong reaction of 7900

so I am not expecting dow to break this support level
obviously you never know, but I'm be on the trigger for longs again

 

[Atilla]

dax is on support, the obvious target from a pullback...
strong reaction of 7900

so I am not expecting dow to break this support level
obviously you never know, but I'm be on the trigger for longs again

Based on my 15m charts just reversed position to long at 13633.

Remembered from yesterday it picked up support at this 630 level and now that Bernanke's had his speech about credit tightening regarding loans to home buyers, market will interpret this as no rate rise and rage forward.

SL @ 13610 just got blown.

Will watch it to see if 13600 holds.

 

[2468steve]

$/yen will be the key today.....if it breaks 121.20 or rebounds back above 121.45