DB an Geo's Smallcap Smorgasbord

[Geofract]

GBP JPY continues to get hammered - so no trade there, despite my comments yesterday - £CHF worked ok for a good few pips if you managed to get in in.

Looking at FTSE now for possible shorts, but lots of retrace required - 5272 or thereabouts could be a lovely area to short. This would also be a 61.8 fib of todays low and yesterdays high and SR level, presuming current low holds. 5250 is possible short area too imho.

 

[dr.blix]

btw mr. geofractus me owld china...

could you explain your confirmation strat for me again?!!

is it as simple as looking for a bias pattern on, say, a 1m TF at a fib retracement on a move AFTER the 4H biasa has been confirmed?

 

[Geofract]

btw mr. geofractus me owld china...

could you explain your confirmation strat for me again?!!

is it as simple as looking for a bias pattern on, say, a 1m TF at a fib retracement on a move AFTER the 4H biasa has been confirmed?

Aye lad, that be it pretty much. 1m is super aggressive, so you may prefer 2m for a little more sanity.

 

[dr.blix]

i hate these FTSE dips when all i can do is go long on equities.

i might make this IGmarkets CFD account a real one.

 

[dr.blix]

read an interesting post by timsk geo.

he was talking about scaling out of exits...turns out he concluded that he was losing money from closing a portion of the trade and letting the rest run with a stop @ BE.

the exit still remains the tricksiest nut to crack...

 

[Geofract]

in ref to BE trades Dr.B - personally I think it's all about managing risk - since your E$ trade was anti 4H trend, and followed quite a bearish day, I would say getting stopped at BE is a bonus tbh... all imho, no offence.

A strategy I have used for managing risk is to scale out my position for a zero risk trade. For example, a trade with a 20 pip SL, scale out 50% of your position at +20 pips... if the trade goes against you, your break even point is 20 pips beyond your entry, and with no risk.

 

[Geofract]

read an interesting post by timsk geo.

he was talking about scaling out of exits...turns out he concluded that he was losing money from closing a portion of the trade and letting the rest run with a stop @ BE.

the exit still remains the tricksiest nut to crack...

The Lap and I spent ages chatting about that very point - scale out or not!? - on paper it makes sense, and it is something I do quite often. But I can appreciate the rationale for not scaling out.

Exit rules aren't too bad imho, well at least if you're prepared to accept fairly manual rules.

 

[Geofract]

DB, look where we are now on E$ - 50% fib of yesterdays swing - this where I would look for a 1m/2m bias change for short entry typically.

edit: this also coincides with the low of the 7th dec.

 

[Geofract]

The trouble is the euro looks pretty over extended to the down side.

Really I need to learn PN's counter trend strategy to find more trading opportunities.

 

[dr.blix]

aah...ok, bring out the 2min charts!

this price feels a little like no mans land though...i'd feel more comfortable at 780 or 798, but this is becasue i have a load of old channel lines on my chart (and not a nice clean 'dark-side' chart like yours )

 

[dr.blix]

actually the 2min chart is fascinating...a series of balanced 15-20 pip retracements...

 

[dr.blix]

with a channel drawn on the 2min TF you can def see the buying power is waining...but has it stopped? harder to say.

i'm going with my 798 level, the 38% fib is there too.

 

[dr.blix]

E$ 2min

red lines are my old channel levels.

would you take a confirmed channel breakout as a confirmation to enter geo?

or is that too low a grade signal as compared to bias change?

2 min shows buyers are struggling, but nothing clear yet.


EDIT:

780 breached, but i'm still holding out for 795 area...even if this isn't a longer TF trade, there would still be a 15-20 pip scalp.

EDIT EDIT:

where've you gone mr. geosophagus?!! come back here at once and converse with me regarding the Euro versus Dollar conundrum... :cheesy:

 

[dr.blix]

still respecting this channel..i've just added a second outer channel floor to coincide with the 8.40 and 9.10 drops.

 

[Geofract]

Ok, will be back in half hour Dr. B - stuff to sort out with clients - oh joy!

 

[dr.blix]

Ok, will be back in half hour Dr. B - stuff to sort out with clients - oh joy!

eheh...k mate..no dubt i'll be penniless by the time you get back :cheesy:

 

[dr.blix]

short 763...target 10 pip scalp at first...if it blasts through 10 pips i'll move my stop to BE and see what happens

EDIT:

i took the 10 pips, didn't fire through 753

 

[dr.blix]

short again 751

EDIT:


as per i dived right in...there's a real skirmish going on at this price...

EDIT:

stop moved to 759

EDIT:

key points are

747
742
728

EDIT:

FTSE is rallying which i don't like whilst being in a E short.

 

[dr.blix]

closed manually @ BE.

 

[minch]

FTSE at an interesting level....Found support at 5190 this morning,

50% Fib from swing low 3 Nov....confluence with 61.8% Fib from swing low 27 Nov,

Rbs from Sept High's.......Daily 50 ema,

Im long from 5207.