DAX Analysis

Again unsure where we are going here........I cant see a 180 pip overshoot coming from anywhere anytime soon, and any further delay over Greek bailout is pushing them further to the Abyss, which quite frankly I believe they actually prefer sadly......

I have layered in short positions at 6850/70/90 and will hold over weekend
 
First short has activated and market closed 6863 mid price....

I'm going to stick my head on the block here and only my opinion but Greece is going to default and not because the ECB and others wont stump up the bailout, but more the fact the Greeks dont really care......A rather startling statement but one I've harboured for some time. Make no mistake the Greeks and creditors totally realise this is just a temporary reprieve, and they will indeed default at a later date.......

This is backed up by headlines in the FT online where the headline proclaims " Athens rehearses nightmare of Default"

Form your own opinions because I may be totally wrong in the short term, but long term they are gone..............
 
I agree, they will short-term (6mths) resign or be ejected form the Euro, revert to the Drachma, and probably further devalue that currency in the mid-term to re-ignite their tourism industry, and encourage inflation to degrade their debts.

This will make the Euro stronger in the mid- to long-term, and, as its Germany's currency, will surely be positive for the DAX? The issue for DAX traders is how to survive the ultra-short-term catastrophic price falls when Greece splits off?
 
for me it’s still 6800 cash as the key, boring I know but there you go. It may come back to test this area before heading higher with targets at 7000+ but a close below would knock my long bias on the head for a while.

I would not be surprised if any negative news fell upon a significant price area such as the 7000 area. i see any major declines re greece as a possible buying opportunity at the mo.....depends on how the world markets look at it, but it's been going that long it' s lost the element of surprise... maybe that was the idea.
 
Tint's t/a appears to be spot on.........All 3 of my shorts hit stop loss but am still not convinced that this deal will complete today, if at all......!

On sidelines awaiting.
 
Dax was always the worst to short of the big indices IMO because it was so oversold in the summer. Really DAX ought to be back to 7500 right now.

It'll be a good short if the general market pulls back, which judging by current trends, we're due to have a red day sometime in September.
 
DAX Analysis 02/22/2012

The DAX found good resistance already at 6975 yesterday before plunging again below 6900 finding strong support at 6872. The drop formed a negative outside day with 6985 – 6862 the levels to follow. Today’s session started with a small gap up and an hourly closing above 6925 will already confirm a small double bottom re-launching the move up for a possible 7000 overshooting. The indicators of the daily chart are still well positive and start forming bearish divergences. Those of the s/t ones are instead mixed suggesting further consolidation/ correction. We suggest keeping the long position but move again the stop to 6865; we sell a 7020 overshooting while going short in case of a 7050 overshooting.
Read more Stock Market News
 
DAX Analysis 02/23/2012

The DAX confirmed a weak closing last night well below the low of the previous session, that was already a negative outside day, and also below the support of it at 6862 suggesting further weakness, especially in case of a possible closing tonight below 6821!! The indicators of the daily chart are still well positive but still showing overbought conditions and potential negative reversals!! Those of the s/t ones are below the line this morning supporting further consolidation/correction. An hourly closing below 6821 will support an extension of the retracement toward the 200 hours line at 6787 if not even a little lower toward the support line at 6760 where we suggest going long! Only an hourly closing above 6895 will resume the move up. In the hourly chart we have already a small s/t bottom especially in case of an hourly closing above 6853 at 9.00 CET. Read more Stock Market News
 
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We got the test of 6800 today so I would hope this now gives a platform for more upside with targets still around 7000+. The other major indices all seem a bit jittery so it’s a case of proceed with caution for me.
 
DAX Analysis 02/24/2012

The DAX confirmed even a test of the 6730 level before bouncing higher forming a positive day reversal. A daily closing tonight above 6908 will confirm a bottom supporting higher levels and a firm overshooting of the 7000 level!! The indicators of the daily chart are still positive but those of the s/t ones closed below the line last night. In the hourly chart we have however a new positive reversal suggesting a s/t target at 7021. We stay on the sideline for now waiting for stronger signals! Read more Stock Market News
 
Dax appears very much in no mans land latter part of the week. Managed to scalp a fair few pips and off the FTSE as well so not a bad week pip wise.

As Tints says awaiting direction and stronger signals
 
DAX Analysis 02/28/2012

The DAX confirmed yesterday an undershooting of the suggested neck line of a possible S_H_S formation before however propelling higher breaking this morning the resistance line and suggesting further upside potential especially in case of a firm hourly closing above 6895!! The indicators of the daily chart are still positive while those of the s/t ones are mixed this morning with the indicators of the hourly chart however in positive territory supporting higher levels. The s/t scenery is turning to positive but we suggest waiting for further confirmations and an hourly closing above 6895 will support higher levels aborting the suggested S_H_S formation! Read more Stock Market News
 
DAX Analysis 02/29/2012

The DAX confirmed a strong closing last night suggesting further strength toward a possible retest of the previous top at 6975 with a possible extension later toward our s/t target!! The indicators of the daily chart are still positive and this morning also those of the s/t ones turend above the line supporting further strength. An hourly closing above 6908 will support further strength.
Read more Stock Market News
 
DAX Analysis 03/02/2012

The DAX failed to confirm the negative day reversal confirming instead a strong closing, at the top of yesterday’s session suggesting further upside potential. Only a clear break above 6975 will however support higher levels suggesting a rally toward 7080 if not even 7170!! The indicators of the daily chart are still in positive territory and this morning also those of the s/t ones are above the line supporting higher levels. We expect a break above 6975!! We remain on the sideline waiting for stronger signals.
Read more Stock Market News
 
I wouldn't short the dax as its too unpredictable but hopefully with a sell off coming soon (perhaps November?) then the DAX will do its usual collapse (is the DAX the most volatile market?).
 
Re: DAX Analysis 03/02/2012

Tint said:
The DAX failed to confirm the negative day reversal confirming instead a strong closing, at the top of yesterday’s session suggesting further upside potential. Only a clear break above 6975 will however support higher levels suggesting a rally toward 7080 if not even 7170!! The indicators of the daily chart are still in positive territory and this morning also those of the s/t ones are above the line supporting higher levels. We expect a break above 6975!! We remain on the sideline waiting for stronger signals.
Read more Stock Market News
Click to expand...

Tint I enjoy your daily analysis but I don't quite understand how much stronger signals you want or actually what they are ??

All your indicators are good to go, but you still sit on the sidelines ??
 
DAX Analysis 03/05/2012

The DAX failed again to confirm a break above 6975 despite the strong opening on Friday. We have now a potential triple top but only a break below 6815 will start supporting this formation. Instead, the key level is only at 6732. The indicators of the daily chart are now starting to turn below the line and also those of the s/t ones are in negative territory supporting a possible decline. In the daily chart we have a potential S_H_S formation with the neck line at 6800!! We suggest waiting for further confirmations. Too many time in the last weeks we had selling signals but at the end of the day the DAX was higher!! Read more Stock Market News
 
DAX Analysis 03/07/2012

The DAX confirmed finally a clear break that confirming a further weak closing supporting lower levels. Possible rebounds even important, should find resistance at the 6732 former key level!! The indicators of the daily chart are well negative this morning and also those of the s/t ones are well below the line suggesting further weakness. While below 6660 we expect a direct extension of the decline below 6600 toward the fisrt support at 6575 but the target is still only at 6489!! Read more Stock Market News
 
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