DAX Analysis

Re: DAX Analysis 02/01/2012

Tint said:
The DAX failed to confirm an hourly closing above 6526 plunging instead lower. In the s/t charts we have now a potential S_H_S formation with the neck line at 6440. A break below this line will support lower levels, probably toward a target at 6250!!The indicators of the daily chart are still well positive but also still showing overbought conditions and potential negative reversals. Those of the s/t ones are instead negative supporting lower levels with already s/t target at 6418. We shorted the DAX this morning at 6481 for a test lower putting an initial stop at 6539 that we want to lower a.s.a.p. Read more Stock Market News
Click to expand...


As this has piled past your stop has your view changed or are we extremely ripe for a reversal here ??
 
dax is not "independant"

it follows dow like a dog on the string

and dow follows the dollar

why it is easy to be wrong

would be nice if daily dow analysis is added

regards.........
 
DAX Analysis 02/02/2012

The DAX is well bid since our call yesterday for a correction. Possible a test of the 6700 area even 6800. The indicators of the daily chart are still well positive but now also overbought and showing potential negative reversals. Those of the s/t ones are also positive this morning supporting higher levels. The move up did not only abort the suggested S_H_S formation but confirmed also a positive reversal suggesting a s/t target at 6861. We remain the sideline.
Read more Stock Market News
 
Re: DAX Analysis 02/02/2012

Tint said:
The DAX is well bid since our call yesterday for a correction. Possible a test of the 6700 area even 6800. The indicators of the daily chart are still well positive but now also overbought and showing potential negative reversals. Those of the s/t ones are also positive this morning supporting higher levels. The move up did not only abort the suggested S_H_S formation but confirmed also a positive reversal suggesting a s/t target at 6861. We remain the sideline.
Read more Stock Market News
Click to expand...

Hope you don't mind me quoting yourselves ??

I to am sidelined after massive profit yesterday (pip wise) of 152 combined FTSE and Dax...

Markets flat at the moment but would suggest a short tonight if Greece issues remain unresolved.....

Meanwhile the sidelines await...
 
If the Greece deal doesn't close today/tonight before market opening I can see Dax and FTSE tumbling overnight and tomorrow.....

Am short over weekend at@3 Dax and @3 Ftse...
 
Interesting thread. Tint, it looks like jungerns is getting well ahead. I'm mystfied by your readiness to sell into a rising market. Uptrend suggested by rising swing lows 04/10, 25/11 and 20/12 was confirmed by breach of 6179, high of 03/01, on 10/01. With opening gap 17/01 still unbroken, we have not yet looked back. I agree, indicators have been clicking overbought, but price is the main indicator surely?
 
may be we can place our bets for this week?

my take 6680 to be touched

regards.........
 
nothing is adding up for me on the ftse at the mo ( just started looking at the dax) except up up up. so i admire jugerns brave move. 6000 on the ftse will come in my opinion but i suspect many others like me are looking for the magic retracement...ho ho ho we need it soooo.
i got a little gap on the ftse chart that is bothering me at the mo around 5880 cash so it's keeping me out ....but it'll be hard not to jump in if it hops on that lift again:)
 
Als said:
may be we can place our bets for this week?

my take 6680 to be touched

regards.........
Click to expand...


I don't ever treat myself to price level predictions any more, I just mark the direction and ride with it. Usually this is to a fixed target but I am now experimenting with trailing stops, using ATR5 as initial stop. My chart's last entry point long on the DAX would have been 10/01, no viable retracements since then for second chance. ATR5 trailing stop would probably have seen me taken out as soon as the 13th: not good considering the index has gone a further 600+pts since then.
 
mrblonde - are you sure you haven't called up the FTSE chart?
I haven't traded the DAX but have traded the FTSE using HL bars in the past, and using that system to trade FTSE100 members now. It requires at least three bars with lower highs and lower lows to make a retracement in an uptrend, so the last sequence that fits was 04/01 to 09/01: entry then would have been breach of high formed on 09/01, 6076.6.
Entries are easy, poor exits are killing me.
 
Hi mrblonde - I'm having a Scotch now but your pic is surely a spreadbetting tick chart? My SB account chart also shows 27/10 slightly highetr than 28th but that's not what the underlying index did. For confirmation, look at current DAX level - the underlying index actually closed on Friday at 6766.67 (see http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/): your chart shows 6783, my SB chart shows 6785.5. I don't trust SB charts for TA decisions.
 
tomorton said:
Hi mrblonde - I'm having a Scotch now but your pic is surely a spreadbetting tick chart? My SB account chart also shows 27/10 slightly highetr than 28th but that's not what the underlying index did. For confirmation, look at current DAX level - the underlying index actually closed on Friday at 6766.67 (see http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/): your chart shows 6783, my SB chart shows 6785.5. I don't trust SB charts for TA decisions.
Click to expand...

that's interesting i have noticed a dif of approx 2 points between finspreads and capital spreads, each time the market looks bullish/bearish finspreads change their price up or down by 2 points. i have both sb charts running at the same time ..price is the same then it changes just as the next market move starts...a good indicator:LOL:
 
Dick Lexic said:
that's interesting i have noticed a dif of approx 2 points between finspreads and capital spreads, each time the market looks bullish/bearish finspreads change their price up or down by 2 points. i have both sb charts running at the same time ..price is the same then it changes just as the next market move starts...a good indicator:LOL:
Click to expand...


Hi Dick - Actually, the Caps and Fins tick charts are showing different things. Caps' charts show the bid (sell) price of their market on the DAX, Fins' charts show the mid-price between their bid and offer on the DAX. Neither firms' bid and offer is necessarily the same as the other's and neither shows the underlying index. It's like asking Tesco and Sainsbury's the price of baked beans - they will both give different answers and both be wrong if you're shopping at the other, or at Asda: the only people who really know are Heinz.
 
ok i'll just have the sausage never mind the beans:)

what i was meaning was the fluctuation in price as the day goes on ...i have both charts open and they both show the same price but then they change and finspreads goes up/down 2 points. usually this happens when the market is likely to make a big move ...anyone else confirm?
 
Closed out short trades held over weekends at +41@3 on Ftse and +50@3 on Dax for no other reason that I cant see where we are going over next 2 days or so....

Taken profit and sit on sidelines for now.
 
DAX Analysis 02/06/2012

(6756) The DAX confirmed the expected direct overshooting of the 6700 level on the way toward our target. The closing was again very strong on Friday supporting further strength! The indicators of the daily chart are still well positive but also still overbought and showing potential negative reversals. Those of the s/t ones are also still positive, but an hourly closing below 6750 will start turning negative those of the hourly chart supporting a correction. We still remain on the sideline while waiting for a sensible correction or a possible extreme overshooting to sell.
Read more Stock Market News
 
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