Best Thread Correlation Trading - Basic Ideas and Strategies

[NVP]

well well well

xmas came finally yesterday and I hope you were in the market and making money

more later
N

 

[NVP]

RULE BRITANNIA :cheesy:

Please excuse this jingoistic rant - as it does not happen much :innocent:

The GBP.....the pound...the Quid.....

In case you missed things recently the GBP is flying high off a wave of Austerity measures where the true GBP (Great British Public) have not yet caught onto the habits of the Latin blooded Europeans and decided to riot in the streets.....(well some did - but that wasnt really due to Austerity measures)

Here is the FXcorrelator X-men indicator (left chart)...on a monthly TF and set on 12 ma ....so it is showing annualised strength/weakness

and where is the GBP (RED) X-man ? .....top of the pile :clap:
with CAD and USD following behind

and then look at the right chart.........dont worry to much but I threw every other currency I could find on my FXCM platform ....into a FXCorrelator indicator and came up with the same message on an annualised 12ma setting !

Red is at the top and thats a Brown singaore dollar just below it and gold in orange (relative Gold not Gold/USD) then USD...so all being creamed by the GBP !

I cant see this before anywhere frankly on the historic charts so take a picture........and get that holiday money out now Brits .....as sure as eggs is eggs We cannot stay on-top forever**

N

*(as the actress said to the bishop )

 

[NVP]

heres a 900ma setting showing the daily moves for that year .......showing that
in 2012 the GBP has been unstoppable :smart:

N

 

[NVP]

GOLD....GOLD....GOLD !

Jees.....its hard enough trading the G8 currencies..... but everyone still asks me about Gold and what I do

well I mainly find Gold useful as it gives me an idea of how the G8 are running in relation to Gold and if the world is loving or hating Paper "Fiat" money

heres an FXcorrelator where I've loaded Gold in and rebased it so its like every other "Currency" ...ie its a GOLD INDEX vs the other currencies shown (usual Colours)

oh yeah.......and on a 200ma .....(not another MA NVP !)

c,mon you all know the 200ma is a respected longer term Trend indicator and I use it the same way as you would in any normal chart

and GOLD is in VIOLET

so what do I see ?.........

Gold for me was an interesting punt in 2011 whenever it got above all the other G8 currencies ....why ?

well because its telling us people dont want paper money and perhaps Gold is a good haven to put it for a while

you can see that even though USD (and Yen) were also flying high at times the gold/USD price (right chart) still shot up for nice buys .........so imagine if you had bought Gold valued in those lower (falling) currencies !

for some reason Gold has now come off those 2011 highs and is now way below value of all the G8 currencies.....It would have been of interest to me SELLING Gold once it was below the Zero line and I saw Currencies that were potentially getting stronger .......All together now

GBP ! (look up gold/GBP chart - sell of the year so far)

so that what I do GOLDWISE .........sure theres a few other things thrown in but thats the nuts and bolts and generally Its a secondary game to my forex stuff

predictions ..........well Gold cant stay bottom forever so watch for situations where (some) paper currencies start to fall out of favour again and people get bored buying equities and other instruments

N

Note - theres companies out there charging a lot of dollars for this simple approach....so dont be sold down the river ....its simple logic of you follow relative strength to trade the markets

 

[NVP]

THE EURCHF "PEG"

heres an interesting thread

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/for...1-2-minimum-exchange-rate-11.html#post1846936

My take on the peg from a trading perspective has been pretty simple.....I stopped trading the pair

sure I now have the comfort that whatever the Euro does I can rely on the CHF to back it up (?) but aside from that I was never a big fan of trading the pair anyway

heres my FXCorrelator strengthmeter on a 200ma setting over last year or so ...

Blue Euro
Grey CHF
Lime USD for the Benchmark currency

That Sep announcement really started to bring them "tight" and eventually stopped the speculation once traders realized it was gonna be for for real during that Q4 glide path honeymoon period down to 1.20 ...

we can see since then in 2012 they are bosom buddies and perhaps note the Euro being more volatile (as expected) and the CHF played catch up to re-align the peg

shame as we've lost the need for any CHF pair trading currently.....as whats the point ?

N

 

[NVP]

Bank holiday in the UK…other global
regions are ok I think !

some nice current early scalps selling yen and USD…will have to see what market says later as Europe wakes up to the big falls last week

suspect carnage may continue on weak volumes today

N

 

[NVP]

slowly scalping away on the Dows retrace buy selling YEN and USD

and on 5min and 15m charts remember it is a retrace only.... based on the higher charts so keep it tight as Dow could turn and run south at any time which would spook Yen and USD north again

N

 

[NVP]

hey all

been a retrace day so plenty of short term trading against the big daddie trend

Nothing wrong with this strategy...just keep it tight and
dont expect miracles :smart:

N

 

[NVP]

hey all

long Weekend in the uk but now we are back !

well well …the Dow holds the 13,000 overnight…so is it now time for a strong week of gains ?

if so i am in a quandary…as I’m not sure what currencies to buy into the falling USD and YEN

GBP looks like it has a ceiling level and everyone is saying no more (?)

Euro is hardly the buy prediction this week…and CHF will as usual buckle up on the peg

AUD and NZD under huge pressure

so perhaps just perhaps I may be interested in the CAD this week …whatever Crude is doing

Whenever I trade my system – I’m generally already 50% right on USD and Yen direction – so that means my Exposure to losses will be minimal – which is why I trade this system/approach

anyway the Market will tell me if/when it all happens

Good trading and dont believe the hype out there…

Trade what you see …..the rest is all Advertising,PR,marketing and the experts trying to justify their bloated salaries to their Employers and of course the subscribers and purchasers of their Trading systems

N

 

[NVP]

i'm travelling this week on business but will pick up any messages here and at my home website and linked-in (blah blah) so to all current collaborators and students at this moment - dont worry - I will get back to you !

N

 

[NVP]

naturally if Dow folds today then I 'm probably looking at Eurosell heaven .....

 

[robbert]

naturally if Dow folds today then I 'm probably looking at Eurosell heaven .....

so it seems...!! with the turbulence thats happening in Europe euro will go even lower

 

[angelnish]

Hello everyone, I'm the newest member to reach this thread,though it looks great,I need months to go through the whole thread. Is there any exact short manual (pdf) of this whole system. I'd be glad to know the performance of last 2-3months.

 

[NVP]

Hello everyone, I'm the newest member to reach this thread,though it looks great,I need months to go through the whole thread. Is there any exact short manual (pdf) of this whole system. I'd be glad to know the performance of last 2-3months.

hey there

Try my website (see vendor button) for an intro..there may be a few PDF's around on the older posts here

I have an archive file of 6m of training and coaching data we may release at some point (I need my admin and IT support back to help me though :innocent

i'm not currently teaching or running any courses but will let everyone know if I do....

I will at some point do a post with all the links to what I think are the most useful posts out of the 2000 million here

regards
N

 

[NVP]

so it seems...!! with the turbulence thats happening in Europe euro will go even lower

NOT !!!

Dow falls
USD and Yen rise
Euro doesnt fall (but GBP and AUD do)

Go figure..............!
N

 

[NVP]

Hey all

This is a good thread..

Pete and Flash get there a lot and they and others try to call things as they see it

N

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/gen...ding-general-chat-lounge-703.html#post1848962

 

[NVP]

stay buying USD and Yen...that Dow retrace north was a fake play.....

 

[NVP]

hey all travelling on business now next few days .......talk when I can

 

[NVP]

hey all

no access to charts for next 2 days.....think of the money i will save !

watching bloomberg this morning ......I like that Chris Walker from UBS re Forex commentary ........plenty of knowledge and no Ego at all......

N

 

[NVP]

back in uk tomorrow .....if customs are open later that is !