Concept FX

[Scanjet]

You were stopped out by high-impact news items from the US. This is a problem at the moment for systems such as Concept IMHO. Bad news is rife at present and the pros have itchy fingers on their triggers.....
It's your money, but if it were me, I'd sit on the fence for a couple of months and just watch. £500 a year for membership? So 2 months is £85 worth. How much could you lose on just 1 trade in comparison? If, at the end of 2 months the account is up re-enter with renewed hope. If it's down extend the fence-sit for another 2 months....

 

[gamma]

bbbbbb

 

[gamma]

Or you guys could simply stop looking for the holy grail learn to trade and stop relying on signals from companies that really have no magic formula they probably have less knowledge than some of the posters on this thread.

The above suggestion is not meant to belittle or insult anyone.

 

[sean uk]

Hi Phil...not sure why you got entered into that trade...I'm with Capital spreads and didn't get entered...you must have got in by the narowest of margins...sods law...but you've had two bad trades purely from being with IG Index as I recall...

 

[bigphil22]

Hi Phil...not sure why you got entered into that trade...I'm with Capital spreads and didn't get entered...you must have got in by the narowest of margins...sods law...but you've had two bad trades purely from being with IG Index as I recall...

By 3 pips. An expensive 3 pips. Time to change my SB co perchance?

Phil

 

[pvisser]

By 3 pips. An expensive 3 pips. Time to change my SB co perchance?

Phil

I spoke to Concept and they said that they only reccomend IG Index because its user friendly. Since some of the customers that buy concept don't know anything about spreadbetting IG is the best choice for them. I am switching over to capital spreads on Monday, because they have tighter spreads.

 

[bigphil22]

I spoke to Concept and they said that they only reccomend IG Index because its user friendly. Since some of the customers that buy concept don't know anything about spreadbetting IG is the best choice for them. I am switching over to capital spreads on Monday, because they have tighter spreads.

I have just applied to Capital, not that it will make much real difference if Concept carries on the way it's going. I'm now 31% down on my bank.

 

[Lee Shepherd]

pvisser and bigphil22,

Tighter spreads will enhance profits, not turn losing trades profitable, if you're losing consistantly then tighter spreads wont help you notice any returns, they may just be able to drag out your floundering career by one trade...maybe.

Also, changing SB companies, always blame the company you're with, this helps in your mind but does not get to the route of the matter. If we're comparing IG index against Capital spreads, you could say they're are both SB co's so exhibit the same behaviour but out of the two, surely IG is more befitting as Concept recommends them.

I think the real problem here is with the company you are allowing to tell you when to trade and when not to, the results are poor and you are spunking money up the wall. Have you heard of paper trading, try this and when you can believe in their results, throw money on the line, if not, cancel your subscription and I would ask for my money back in full with compensation as they have failed to deliver what they claimed......although they'll have some disclaimer about past performance blah blah, if it ain't working, cancel it.

 

[bigphil22]

I agree. Changing cos won't make loosing trades profitable, won't make bad info good. No question. As for the subscription, I'm not paying one. But I am down a fair bit on my bank, as are the other concept users that don't manage their trades. I'm also down the initial cost of the "programme".

Interesting psychology, I feel I'm close to the mind set that says "the next trade will go well, the next trade must go well", typical gamblers thinking. But given that there are only 2 ways each trade can go it's amazing that Concept's loosing run has been so consistently bad. I'm almost to the stage where when they signal a short that I go for a long. If we'd all reversed the last 10 trades that concept signalled we'd all be laughing. But of course we didn't and we're not.

As for money back, well there are all sorts of disclaimers in the small print on their site and other than sending the boys round there's no way that they're going to pay anything back.

Phil

pvisser and bigphil22,

Tighter spreads will enhance profits, not turn losing trades profitable, if you're losing consistantly then tighter spreads wont help you notice any returns, they may just be able to drag out your floundering career by one trade...maybe.

Also, changing SB companies, always blame the company you're with, this helps in your mind but does not get to the route of the matter. If we're comparing IG index against Capital spreads, you could say they're are both SB co's so exhibit the same behaviour but out of the two, surely IG is more befitting as Concept recommends them.

I think the real problem here is with the company you are allowing to tell you when to trade and when not to, the results are poor and you are spunking money up the wall. Have you heard of paper trading, try this and when you can believe in their results, throw money on the line, if not, cancel your subscription and I would ask for my money back in full with compensation as they have failed to deliver what they claimed......although they'll have some disclaimer about past performance blah blah, if it ain't working, cancel it.

 

[Lee Shepherd]

:!:given that there are only 2 ways each trade can go it's amazing that Concept's loosing run has been so consistently bad. I'm almost to the stage where when they signal a short that I go for a long. If we'd all reversed the last 10 trades that concept signalled we'd all be laughing. But of course we didn't and we're not.:!:


Phil

Hi bigphil,

Its this line in particular you have to throw out of your mind, (the markets can only go one of two ways). Get rid of it.

Although true, the markets dont just go one of two ways as such, they go both directions at the same time, if that makes sense.
Even if you had of reversed the trades you may have found you were stopped out quickly or the profit didn't make up for the losses ect. Same goes for losing trades. Set the stops, set the targets, set the risk, set the money management and off ya go.

Theres this conception with new traders and people not in the know that believe 'if only I had of done the opposite' things would have been different, not necessarily true as the outcome is based purely on that one single trade and only valid all the time the trader is holding. Holding is totally different as this is where your mind kicks in and spots reversals that aren't there or strong enough or see's a possible pull back or a support or resistance on a different time frame on a loosing trade so holds some more or a winning trade and cuts short.

Hindsight is something that is totally useless in trading as it's always perfect, this is what also makes backtesting a fruitless excercise and should only ever be carried out in live time to avoid curve fitting ect.

 

[bongofury]

this is a fascinating thread. i use trend signal which i find very helpful but at the moment have little time to devote to trading so was thinking about this system. i know all the arguments about doing it yourself but not everyone has the time. i think andy has been very honest thoroughout this thread and some of the negative guys should just find another thread.

if one believes the historicals this has done well over the years but has now hit a bad patch. the prob is several people have bought since july and have been hosed ! obviously the timing was bad but it doesnt mean the system is crap. it may be but not because of what has happened over last 2 months. one thing i have wondered is have you guys cut down your size as your bank has shrunk. it sounds as you have still been doing 5% of your original bank all the time which is wrong. not trying to be smart jsut view from the outside.the only other thing i would say is forget about money back as that wont happen. i looked at their get outs and they are pretty good.

despite recent events i am still thinking about buying but maybe will wait till recent mayhem subsides. good luck all

ps just read trader dante's thread which is great.

 

[bigphil22]

SNIP
if one believes the historicals this has done well over the years but has now hit a bad patch. the prob is several people have bought since july and have been hosed ! SNIP

And there's the rub, I'm one of those people and have been well and truly hosed, with cold water, with sand it

 

[anddy26]

bongo thanks for the mention.....the pound 1.76v the dollar.....havnt seen that for quite a while...and maybe concept worked out their systems on a rising market right enough..well woohoo its rising again..............isnt it?.lol....im as despondent as lots of u guys..even my own trades have went against me.....dante works on price action then takes s/r into consideration..i belive concept only work on s/r levels...once it settles down it will come back as im sure many 'proper traders' took the same alerts as concept took...heck even the bankers have been red faced..if they get it wrong who can get it right?......concept is still a great learning tool!!..i repeat..tool...i can now see s/r levels which are obvious to seasoned traders but for hobbyist and would be traders never saw them before...ok 4k is a steep lesson..but if invest 4k into learning then not a bad lesson top take.............i can say the last 12 trades have been wrenching but again if 2 of them had of came off it would have made things easier to swallow...a fool and his money? u tell me..

 

[bongofury]

listen...lehman has just gone belly up so even the realy smart guys screw up. i used to be a bondtrader and believe me there is no holy grail. just hard work and a bit of luck. trend signal helps pick the timing but still gets taken over by events and markets that...guess what...dont do what the programme says! still might buy concept but that will just be an extra tool.

 

[bongofury]

just pressed the wrong button so mised part of my message ! doh ! i think the only thing i agree with the sceptics about is that you cant blame the tool like some people are now trying to. if you read books like "reminiscneses of a stock operator" you have to take responsibility for your trades. early in this thread one or two guys were saying they liked the idea of making money for nothing and it would be nice to do this no the beach. i remember sitting with some guys at salomon the the early 90's and taling about how much you would need to reitre. we thought $10mn but all decided that by having this conversation we had shown we would never achieve this. the guys who would wanted 10 and then 10 more etc. i worked with alan howard, now brevan howard (woth £250mn). he will carry on till he drops. there is no easy answer but maybe things like trensd signal and concept can help give you a small advantage

 

[pvisser]

pvisser and bigphil22,

Tighter spreads will enhance profits, not turn losing trades profitable, if you're losing consistantly then tighter spreads wont help you notice any returns, they may just be able to drag out your floundering career by one trade...maybe.

Also, changing SB companies, always blame the company you're with, this helps in your mind but does not get to the route of the matter. If we're comparing IG index against Capital spreads, you could say they're are both SB co's so exhibit the same behaviour but out of the two, surely IG is more befitting as Concept recommends them.

I think the real problem here is with the company you are allowing to tell you when to trade and when not to, the results are poor and you are spunking money up the wall. Have you heard of paper trading, try this and when you can believe in their results, throw money on the line, if not, cancel your subscription and I would ask for my money back in full with compensation as they have failed to deliver what they claimed......although they'll have some disclaimer about past performance blah blah, if it ain't working, cancel it.

So far the system has done exactly what they have said. This losing run is not the worste one they have had. You can look in their past results. They do not hide the fact of bad losing runs at all! I must admit that the last trade as soon as I got stopped out I took it short and gained 180 pips, but thats only because of the news that came out. You can always slgithly amend it but you don't have to.

You have to wait at least a year and see how much profit you make. If your bank grows by anything like 50% thats amazing! Where are you going to find a bank which gives you that interest rate? So far this year concept have made a massive percentage increase on their bank. Have a look on this thread in about 8 months time, then you can start criticising.

 

[bongofury]

i wasnt criticising, on the contrary i understand why people would buy this pvisser, but would add one caveat. no one on this thread seems to have run this system in 05/06/07 when the bank was building. is there anyone out there who has been using it this long. i just worry that the past performance could be (only could be) curve fitted to show great results. i think it would help everyone on this thread if someone popped up who had been with concept for a while.

 

[SandyW]

i wasnt criticising, on the contrary i understand why people would buy this pvisser, but would add one caveat. no one on this thread seems to have run this system in 05/06/07 when the bank was building. is there anyone out there who has been using it this long. i just worry that the past performance could be (only could be) curve fitted to show great results. i think it would help everyone on this thread if someone popped up who had been with concept for a while.

There is certainly reason to doubt that anyone was using this system much before April/May 2008, when it was first marketed (as far as I can see), and it is a doubt I entertained when I bought in, but was prepared to leave unproven, because the growth graph sparked my greed (shall we say). There is no question that the "results" in the first half of 2008, and in particular in the first two months, were spectacular. The apparent profit factor had averaged around 2.5% until late 2007, but jumped at the start of 2008 to more like 6%. This was a very sudden step up, just as we are now seeing a sudden step down. I still think there is a key flaw in the algorithm, masked by a backtest, curve fitted when the system was about to be marketed, which has been exposed by the present market conditions.

As Scanjet suggests (although he is not a user), the wisest thing to do now is to just watch, and take no trades. Those who hope for the best, and wish to continue blindly following the signals, and take comfort from the "history", should think again. If Concept were a trade on a currency pair, you would have cut your losses by now, rather than just hope it would go back up. Think about it.

 

[timaru69]

There is certainly reason to doubt that anyone was using this system much before April/May 2008, when it was first marketed (as far as I can see), and it is a doubt I entertained when I bought in, but was prepared to leave unproven, because the growth graph sparked my greed (shall we say). There is no question that the "results" in the first half of 2008, and in particular in the first two months, were spectacular. The apparent profit factor had averaged around 2.5% until late 2007, but jumped at the start of 2008 to more like 6%. This was a very sudden step up, just as we are now seeing a sudden step down. I still think there is a key flaw in the algorithm, masked by a backtest, curve fitted when the system was about to be marketed, which has been exposed by the present market conditions.

As Scanjet suggests (although he is not a user), the wisest thing to do now is to just watch, and take no trades. Those who hope for the best, and wish to continue blindly following the signals, and take comfort from the "history", should think again. If Concept were a trade on a currency pair, you would have cut your losses by now, rather than just hope it would go back up. Think about it.

If you do trade it trade a smaller position size, not the 5% of starting bank!!!!

 

[ceydababy]

pvisser and bigphil22,

Tighter spreads will enhance profits, not turn losing trades profitable, if you're losing consistantly then tighter spreads wont help you notice any returns, they may just be able to drag out your floundering career by one trade...maybe.

Also, changing SB companies, always blame the company you're with, this helps in your mind but does not get to the route of the matter. If we're comparing IG index against Capital spreads, you could say they're are both SB co's so exhibit the same behaviour but out of the two, surely IG is more befitting as Concept recommends them.

I think the real problem here is with the company you are allowing to tell you when to trade and when not to, the results are poor and you are spunking money up the wall. Have you heard of paper trading, try this and when you can believe in their results, throw money on the line, if not, cancel your subscription and I would ask for my money back in full with compensation as they have failed to deliver what they claimed......although they'll have some disclaimer about past performance blah blah, if it ain't working, cancel it.

Enough Said ! Only just reading the tale end of this thread. But can I assume people have parted with a large lump of dough for some crappy out of the box trading system ??

I'm certainly no expert but wouldn't it be better to take the large amount of dough parted with for said system and learn to trade yourselves rather than follow some system blindly that from what I have read seems you'd do better on a coin toss.

Quoting someone on the thread "fools and their money..." Case in point here I believe.

OH well it's not my cash but think about it...if it was the holy grail why would they sell it ???