All Concept Users
I just spoke with Jeran, so thought I'd pass on my conclusions for what it's worth.
The system is based on reading classic support/resistance as we suspected and also uses Fibonnacci levels. Most of the set ups do look right if you check, apart from the ones where there is a clear trend in opposite direction. For these Concept simply sees an opportunity to reverse...we have information which it cannot read such as News events so it's probably wise to use discretion. The same goes for profit targets and stop losses. We can either follow it blindly or use some technical levels to make judgement calls and alter amount per trade as long as your still risking same %.
There is no 'holy grail'. All systems will have good trades and bad trades and it is up to each trader to take responsibilty for each trade. If the set up looks wrong don't enter. If you use good money management and know you can stomach that % loss per trade then you can keep trading without fear. Concept has had bad runs before and come back and had amazing runs too.
Jeran uses it to trade and is still confident in the system. He mentioned a really interesting point...he know of users who have used the system since beginning of 2008 but have not made the profits on the web site...this is due to traders either exhibiting fear or greed after good/bad runs...
I think anybody that's been trading a while will know that the past 8 weeks have been very unusual with the unwinding of carry trade and hedge funds and many big time traders bailing out of the gbp and eur...all this has caused massive volatility and unpredictability.
Personally...i bought Concept to use as an additional tool to confirm my own trade set ups. I also trade using technical levels and Bank Flow information so will simply continue to use all of these things to make high probability calls. I will stick with Concept as it appears to have sound thinking behind it. As for money mangemnent etc...these are for each trader to decide on level of risk versus set up and Bank size.
In reality the biggest enemy to succesful trading is not the markets or systems but ourselves...use good money management and take responsibilty and keep learning.
And Sandy...I've been where you've been before...don't get cynical...use the knowledge you have and also use Concept to your advantage.
Despite using the system since mid August...it hasn't effected my bank because I've either managed the trades or made othe succesful trades to cover losses....I'm just waiting for Concept to come good which I think it will.
I just spoke with Jeran, so thought I'd pass on my conclusions for what it's worth.
The system is based on reading classic support/resistance as we suspected and also uses Fibonnacci levels. Most of the set ups do look right if you check, apart from the ones where there is a clear trend in opposite direction. For these Concept simply sees an opportunity to reverse...we have information which it cannot read such as News events so it's probably wise to use discretion. The same goes for profit targets and stop losses. We can either follow it blindly or use some technical levels to make judgement calls and alter amount per trade as long as your still risking same %.
There is no 'holy grail'. All systems will have good trades and bad trades and it is up to each trader to take responsibilty for each trade. If the set up looks wrong don't enter. If you use good money management and know you can stomach that % loss per trade then you can keep trading without fear. Concept has had bad runs before and come back and had amazing runs too.
Jeran uses it to trade and is still confident in the system. He mentioned a really interesting point...he know of users who have used the system since beginning of 2008 but have not made the profits on the web site...this is due to traders either exhibiting fear or greed after good/bad runs...
I think anybody that's been trading a while will know that the past 8 weeks have been very unusual with the unwinding of carry trade and hedge funds and many big time traders bailing out of the gbp and eur...all this has caused massive volatility and unpredictability.
Personally...i bought Concept to use as an additional tool to confirm my own trade set ups. I also trade using technical levels and Bank Flow information so will simply continue to use all of these things to make high probability calls. I will stick with Concept as it appears to have sound thinking behind it. As for money mangemnent etc...these are for each trader to decide on level of risk versus set up and Bank size.
In reality the biggest enemy to succesful trading is not the markets or systems but ourselves...use good money management and take responsibilty and keep learning.
And Sandy...I've been where you've been before...don't get cynical...use the knowledge you have and also use Concept to your advantage.
Despite using the system since mid August...it hasn't effected my bank because I've either managed the trades or made othe succesful trades to cover losses....I'm just waiting for Concept to come good which I think it will.
anddy26
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sean thank you for taking the trouble to go and ask and to report back to us..Im sure u knew the answers before you had to ask them. I have myself followed concept to the letter on a bigger account
but medled on a smaller account..both are down the same because the TA for minor swing trading int there..this is a bears market for the trendies..the trend is ur friend i always like to try and buck it to my cost!
looking at the charts today id say things have been up and down but i think there is a clear range now ..although one days charts dont support this...but watch this space concept users and those who follow this thread..
but medled on a smaller account..both are down the same because the TA for minor swing trading int there..this is a bears market for the trendies..the trend is ur friend i always like to try and buck it to my cost!
looking at the charts today id say things have been up and down but i think there is a clear range now ..although one days charts dont support this...but watch this space concept users and those who follow this thread..
Hi all
Interested to know how much you guys look at fundamentals for FX? I am not a big fan of trading FX because I don't understand the fundamentals which (seems to me anyway) to have a huge impact on where FX rates end up, more so than stocks (IMHO of course).
A friend of mine has been short since about 1.98 and all on the back of the fundamentals as opposed to the technicals.
anddy26
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hi sean nothing else other than ressitance..its a typical setup id say..it actually slightly higher coz concept usually go above the ressistance and once it triggers expect the reversal...and if u now look it does look like its found its range of about a 400 pip spread..forget about the last 3 yrs..i think this is the range for a while..but i know nowt..lol..my humble opinion
puregold24carat
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Nah Andy......not a sell most probably a buy from them....which will again lose!!
Andy from what I see...there's a much bigger range than that on gbp...1.7500-1.8000 is the immediate range but we need to hold above 1.7000 or we will be into very different territory......I would expect to begin to see some kind of retracement from the july/august move soon hopefully back into the mid 1.8000's again ...but the gbp is very weak...so anybodies guess right now...would heklp if Mr Darling zipped it for a bit too...
anddy26
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here here....pure gold ..im going short at my figure then..coz u think concept will buy...cheers mate who do i pass the 4k onto now?.lol..
oh i hate this game..lol.u wouldnt think it would be that hard..it can only go up or down! a 2 horse race...
At the moment I'm getting most joy from using support/resistance levels and simply watching usd/jpy gbp/jpy and gbp/usd///snipers useful in this regard and the gbp/jpy pair can really move so if you're patient and judge it right...can make good pips on this pair...certainly made up for Concept losses since mid last week...
Hi Sean,
All well said and very reasonable. The same sort of thing was being said when Tradewin was falling apart. I wasn't going to bang on any more, but you addressed me, and got me going again!!
First, re cynicism. Sorry if I have appeared to be getting cynical. I'm not really. I hate cynicism so much. But you can get to a point with Concept, where you are taking so much personal responsibility for entering the trades and managing them, and trading on the side to make up for Concept losses, that the whole point of the system is lost. It is supposed to be relaxed end of day stuff, but I have only stemmed my losses by monitoring intra-day and being poised constantly to take decisions. Anything but relaxed. It is a cop-out for Concept guys to say it is the responsibility of each trader to take responsibility for managing his trades. Sure, it is, and I have done exactly that, but that is NOT in the rules for trading Concept, which is supposed to be set and forget. It is supposed to be suitable for novices. What novice trader has a clue about managing trades, which have been entered for "black box" reasons? If you don't know what is behind the trade, or have the knowledge to see that something is perverse, it is hardly reasonable to try to manage it. You just follow the rules, and you lose or win. Simple.
It is being said that the last 8 weeks etc etc etc........and when it settles down all will be well. Maybe, but who says the markets will settle down? Wishful thinking is no basis for trading. Trade what you see, not what you hope.
If I lose confidence for logical reasons of my own (not fear, not greed, not indiscipline), then I may as well just get on and trade myself, not bothering with Concept which just increases my risk, consumes margin and, even worse, distracts me from thinking clearly about my own trades.
Hi Sandy....the comments made in my last post are my thoughts...not what Jeran thinks...he just told me what Concept bases it's decisions on...he also mentioned that there have been big losing streaks before so his point was that anybody using it should be aware of this and ready...to take responsibility...my interpretation...which is exactly right...trading currencies is extremely risky...end of ...so do it with a cool head...regardless of wether youre a novice or not...each trader needs to take the psychology of losing into account and how it effects your confidence...if it was easy Concept would be huge...pay your money and print more money using Concept..there are 400 users apparently...not huge in the grand scheme of things.
I know what you are saying...I just made £1200 on gbp/gpy today...then took a signal based on Bank Flow information...and just lost half of my profits...the Bank flow has been awful for 8 weeks too...but before that was profitable...so my point again is...take responsibility... I had a great day doing my own trades...then took another trade by a signal provider and lost half...didn't have to do it...the set up was against the trend...swing trading...but he's got such agreat track record prior to the crazyness of last 8 weeks...sounds familiar...
At the end of the day...trading is about probabilities/money management and psychology...we're all just battling to get all 3 working at the same time.
I know what you are saying...I just made £1200 on gbp/gpy today...then took a signal based on Bank Flow information...and just lost half of my profits...the Bank flow has been awful for 8 weeks too...but before that was profitable...so my point again is...take responsibility... I had a great day doing my own trades...then took another trade by a signal provider and lost half...didn't have to do it...the set up was against the trend...swing trading...but he's got such agreat track record prior to the crazyness of last 8 weeks...sounds familiar...
At the end of the day...trading is about probabilities/money management and psychology...we're all just battling to get all 3 working at the same time.
Hi All
Would like to add my thoughts to this thread. I'm a Concept FX subscriber. Like many others, particularly SandyW, I too was full of anger and feeling really down at the recent losses, and was blaming concept for giving such obviously (in hindsight) risky trades. The cable one on 14/8 I didn't take because it seemed so mad to go long at the time, so saved myself a bit there. As I placed the order on the 27/8 signal (Eur/Gbp) I just 'felt' it was going to be a loser, but I put it on anyway. Then finally the Eur/Usd buy signal on 3/9, I felt uneasy putting this on, but I did anyway because I'd already had a word with my brother, who is a forex trader for a major American Investment Bank in London, couple of days earlier when it was around 1.46-ish, and he said, to paraphrase, 'the whole desk is of the view that the Euro will find a floor at or near the 1.45 level'.
So a few days after the last trade and having had time to digest the losses and think about it all, here's my view on things for what it's worth. No system could possibly have predicted such a dramatic move in the market. I've looked back at historical charts and the only event I could find to match the move we've just seen was in 1992 (ERM debacle) on cable. Perhaps you could criticise Concept for attempting to effectively call the bottom of Eur/Usd instead of staying on the sidelines, but don't forget the likes of my brother (who gets paid a fortune by the way) and his colleagues were also calling a floor on the euro 50 points or so higher than the concept entry level. There's a lot of red-faced bank traders scratching their heads right now. So my view is that perhaps we are being a little harsh on the concept guys.
I started trading with concept signals the latter half of May. Even with the recent losses, I am still in profit overall, only by 2k (I am trading full size with 25k notional bank) but better than a loss. We've had a terrible run, 8 losses out of last 10 trades, but when I signed up I knew that the system had previously had 7 losses in a row. Yet the by the end of that year there was a healthy profit. We haven't had 7 losers in a row yet, but 8 out of 10 is pretty bad. Before I signed up I asked myself if I could psychologically take seven losses in a row, and would I be able to put on the next trade after 7 straight losses. I decided that I could. nobody else who signed up should be too surprised at such a run of losers - was bound to happen at some point. The current run is very worrying but what concerns me more is the fact that the wins have been comparatively small compared to the past record. The last decent winner was the Eur/Jpy (25/6 to 1/7) 250 point move (£3250).
Overall, I still just about have faith in the system, but I think they need to ride out this storm and park it for a while (which they appear to be doing right now). The dollar rally can't last forever, not at this rate of acceleration anyway and volatility will eventually decrease. Besides it's going to take a much longer losing run to wipe out my bank from this point. Anyone who started this thing should have been trading with money they were prepared to lose.
Would like to add my thoughts to this thread. I'm a Concept FX subscriber. Like many others, particularly SandyW, I too was full of anger and feeling really down at the recent losses, and was blaming concept for giving such obviously (in hindsight) risky trades. The cable one on 14/8 I didn't take because it seemed so mad to go long at the time, so saved myself a bit there. As I placed the order on the 27/8 signal (Eur/Gbp) I just 'felt' it was going to be a loser, but I put it on anyway. Then finally the Eur/Usd buy signal on 3/9, I felt uneasy putting this on, but I did anyway because I'd already had a word with my brother, who is a forex trader for a major American Investment Bank in London, couple of days earlier when it was around 1.46-ish, and he said, to paraphrase, 'the whole desk is of the view that the Euro will find a floor at or near the 1.45 level'.
So a few days after the last trade and having had time to digest the losses and think about it all, here's my view on things for what it's worth. No system could possibly have predicted such a dramatic move in the market. I've looked back at historical charts and the only event I could find to match the move we've just seen was in 1992 (ERM debacle) on cable. Perhaps you could criticise Concept for attempting to effectively call the bottom of Eur/Usd instead of staying on the sidelines, but don't forget the likes of my brother (who gets paid a fortune by the way) and his colleagues were also calling a floor on the euro 50 points or so higher than the concept entry level. There's a lot of red-faced bank traders scratching their heads right now. So my view is that perhaps we are being a little harsh on the concept guys.
I started trading with concept signals the latter half of May. Even with the recent losses, I am still in profit overall, only by 2k (I am trading full size with 25k notional bank) but better than a loss. We've had a terrible run, 8 losses out of last 10 trades, but when I signed up I knew that the system had previously had 7 losses in a row. Yet the by the end of that year there was a healthy profit. We haven't had 7 losers in a row yet, but 8 out of 10 is pretty bad. Before I signed up I asked myself if I could psychologically take seven losses in a row, and would I be able to put on the next trade after 7 straight losses. I decided that I could. nobody else who signed up should be too surprised at such a run of losers - was bound to happen at some point. The current run is very worrying but what concerns me more is the fact that the wins have been comparatively small compared to the past record. The last decent winner was the Eur/Jpy (25/6 to 1/7) 250 point move (£3250).
Overall, I still just about have faith in the system, but I think they need to ride out this storm and park it for a while (which they appear to be doing right now). The dollar rally can't last forever, not at this rate of acceleration anyway and volatility will eventually decrease. Besides it's going to take a much longer losing run to wipe out my bank from this point. Anyone who started this thing should have been trading with money they were prepared to lose.
Risk %
Hi
Based on the last 12 trades (as per Concept FX) I have shown the drawdown assuming 5% of original start balance of £10k vs x% of account balance.
The point is that regardless of what system you use ,unless you manage your risk then large drawdowns will occurr.
Good luck
T
Hi
Based on the last 12 trades (as per Concept FX) I have shown the drawdown assuming 5% of original start balance of £10k vs x% of account balance.
The point is that regardless of what system you use ,unless you manage your risk then large drawdowns will occurr.
Good luck
T
That this evening's trade I have JUST placed will have stopped out by the time I get up tomorrow?
Any takers? :cheesy:
Phil
Well ok, it took a bit longer than expected but stopped out a little while ago.
It would be nice with just a LITTLE win.
Phil
