Concept FX

[SandyW]

1. Why are stops fixed at levels they are as opposed to underlying volatility

2. Are news days factored into the trading signals (non farm payroll's, interest rate announcements etc) i.e don't take signal on news day

3. Given you have paid for the product i think you have a right to know what drives the signals, if Support and Resistance then what confirmation rules are in place before signal generated, get hm to talk you through the cable trades in August for example.

4. What's to stop Concept FX going the same way as Tradewin (the other system?)

5. Assuming a 45% drawdown in account (historically worst drawdown) what are his recomendations with regard to % risk per trade? 5% of new balance?

6.er...............can i have my money back please

Guys,

Let's be clear about this! Concept is sold quite specifically as an EDUCATIONAL system! Strictly speaking it is not supposed to be treated as giving trading or investment advice. The idea that you might get your money back because you are losing based on following the signals, is as logical as suggesting you would give Concept a cut if you were winning!

That said, we all know it is trading advice, that the Concept guys know full well that their clients are putting their money where Concept's mouth is, and they do nothing to encourage the idea that it is just education or that people should just papertrade, with no money involved. We have a moral right (but no legal fallback) to ask what is being done to rectify the present bad trading record.

But do you imagine they are doing nothing behind the scenes? You know they have a fantastic business model, and have never given any guarantees as to longevity of their current system. Tradewin just DIED. My PURE GUESS is that another system is in gestation. It too will seem to work for a time.

As regards acceptable answers, let alone solutions.....don't hold your breath!

Every day I feel more foolish, not least at having advocated the system to others, but then I have to say it was actually quite EDUCATIONAL in a very unexpected way.

May be I'll feel better after the weekend. TGIF and all that.

 

[pvisser]

I went up to concept today and talked to them about the current situation and I think I can answer some of the questions above.
1. Why are stops fixed at levels they are as opposed to underlying volatility

I asked him this question and he said that the stops are determined by the computer based on the historical data but they may change in time, as the system adapts. It reads signals and then compares them to historical data and decides to base a trade on that. Obviously they don't exactly say it in those words but that's what I lead on to believe from what they explained.

2. Are news days factored into the trading signals (non farm payroll's, interest rate announcements etc) i.e don't take signal on news day.

The answer is no. News is not factored it. It is based on historical data that a computer system analyses then produces entry levels and stops. He did say that for this reason if the market stays volalite it will adapt to the current situation, but it takes time.

 

[SandyW]

Calling all users

............stops are determined by the computer based on the historical data but they may change in time, as the system adapts..............

I doubt very much that "the computer" is sensitive to volatility. The stops at entry are set in the original printed instructions, and have never varied as far as I know. It maybe that someone sometime used a computer to determine ADR volatility or whatever. It maybe that sometime someone with a computer will revisit the question.

There is no integrity to the stops policy during the trade. If there were you would not get a situation where a trade made 1200 pips in 4 weeks then fell back 500 over two weeks before closing! A 500 pips stop on a profitable trade which at entry had a 100 pip stop? C'mon. The stop should be tightening not widening with so much floating profit.

Stops and volatility notwithstanding, we need an explanation as to why Concept gambles on the reversal when there is a clear downtrend, rather than wait for reversal confirmation, which is conventional trading wisdom.

The algorithms have basic flaws.

Please, all users email Concept on this issue, don't just leave it to the few.

 

[timaru69]

12 months of cable

Have attched 12 months of cable signals for FX Concept

Seems to be trying to pick turning points based on previous support/resistance although must be some logic to filter out some of the potential trades

Seems to me to be trying to p*ss against the wind rather than going with the flow.

Also note 14 day ATR running more at 180 than 150 pips

May need to cleck on the gif again to get it to blow up

 

[SandyW]

Seems to me to be trying to p*ss against the wind rather than going with the flow.

Timaru,

Many thanks for the graphic illustration. Says it all really.

 

[london_investor]

Hi man

I will talk to them on Monday...I am using SNiper as well and I don`t undertand why Concept could gave us so many tips against the trend

But anyway... is it possible to cliam money back as a group...lets say 30 or 40 Concept customers will go to the court with them and try get money back... It may help to work together?

li

I doubt very much that "the computer" is sensitive to volatility. The stops at entry are set in the original printed instructions, and have never varied as far as I know. It maybe that someone sometime used a computer to determine ADR volatility or whatever. It maybe that sometime someone with a computer will revisit the question.

There is no integrity to the stops policy during the trade. If there were you would not get a situation where a trade made 1200 pips in 4 weeks then fell back 500 over two weeks before closing! A 500 pips stop on a profitable trade which at entry had a 100 pip stop? C'mon. The stop should be tightening not widening with so much floating profit.

Stops and volatility notwithstanding, we need an explanation as to why Concept gambles on the reversal when there is a clear downtrend, rather than wait for reversal confirmation, which is conventional trading wisdom.

The algorithms have basic flaws.

Please, all users email Concept on this issue, don't just leave it to the few.

 

[SandyW]

Hi man

I will talk to them on Monday...I am using SNiper as well and I don`t undertand why Concept could gave us so many tips against the trend

But anyway... is it possible to cliam money back as a group...lets say 30 or 40 Concept customers will go to the court with them and try get money back... It may help to work together?

li

Hi London Investor,

Talk to them certainly. Every customer should. But dream on about some sort of legal action! Read my post at #1123 above. Also read the Concept terms and conditions small print if you don't believe me. You would have no case whatsoever except a moral argument, and even that would fail because they can legitimately argue that the system was provided in good faith as an educational tool, not as trading advice. It is entirely at your own risk if you treat the signals as trading advice!!! It is also specifically said that Concept are not regulated by the FSA.

 

[timaru69]

Get yer money back - fat chance

Hi London Investor,

Talk to them certainly. Every customer should. But dream on about some sort of legal action! Read my post at #1123 above. Also read the Concept terms and conditions small print if you don't believe me. You would have no case whatsoever except a moral argument, and even that would fail because they can legitimately argue that the system was provided in good faith as an educational tool, not as trading advice. It is entirely at your own risk if you treat the signals as trading advice!!! It is also specifically said that Concept are not regulated by the FSA.

I agree with Sandy

Besides look at the facts. Ok you have to assume the results are actual, but returns have been consistent over time , at least a 100% return each year (without reinvesting profits)

In fact 2008 has been a great year, greater than a 200% return even with those crap trades in August.

The fact is you cannot have the large returns without the risk of large drawdowns. Too many people get starry eyed on the results and think that they can take a 45% drawdown when the truth is they can't.

Greed and Fear are strong emotions and guess which is the strongest??

These conclusions could have been drawn by anybody taking the time to do a detailed analysis of the posted results, I did it in a couple of hours. How many of you did the same?

As the first spreadsheets quite clearly shows , 30% + drawdowns have happened before and a 42% drawdown has occurred previously, however drop the risk per trade to 2% and drawdown drops to 17%, oh yes returns drop as well but hey, I can live with 40 - 60% return p.a. how many businesses have generated that return over a 4 year period??? (maybe the guys who sell the software?)

I can also live with a 17% drawdown, 30%+ I can't stomache.

But what's easier to market? a system showing 3k to 85k in 4 half years or a system showing 3k to 20k in 4 half years? especially when the punters in that market want fast easy returns.

By their very nature mechanical systems will have poor trades as well as good, some will even look like crazy trades but that's the double edged sword you have to live with if you can't do the work.

To those that have suffered the drawdowns, maybe you should take a good hard look at the facts before you blame the vendors, all they are doing is supplying a market need.

The individual who places the trades is responsible for those trades.

And no I won't be buying the system

Good luck

p.s small typo in RR spreadsheet "2% of bank profits not reinvested"

Position size at 2% per trade on a 10K account, profits not reinvested

GBPUSD 150 1
EURCHF 85 2
EURJPY 100 2
EURUSD 75 2
USDCHF 120 1
EURGBP 40 5

 

[SandyW]

Teach a man to fish...........

These conclusions could have been drawn by anybody taking the time to do a detailed analysis of the posted results, I did it in a couple of hours. How many of you did the same?

Timaru,

All solid thinking.

I did do a very detailed analysis not just to check on draw down etc, but to get a feel for the general integrity of the posted results. I could see that the future would present threatening times, and did some mental dummy runs on how it would be to trade the sytem in real time. Both threatening times and the fear thing are certainly now here, no more dummy runs needed.

In fact I have been fortunate in that during the time that other recent purchasers have been suffering, I started with a loss then had two reasonable wins. But as those who have been following this thread will know, I have also been managing some of the trades to protect my position, and as a result I am breaking even. Had I taken the last two trades I would now have an overall loss.

My problem really, is not the fact of a bad run as such, but rather that I have seen the perverse entry into some trades, which go against basic trading wisdom, and appear to be gambles. It is this which has shaken my confidence in the system. To maintain discipline, you do have to have confidence in the sytem. Discipline is about following a good system, not about letting yourself be lead over a cliff in blind faith with fingers crossed.

The good thing, and it is a good outcome, is that I have gained confidence in my own trading knowledge and judgment. I do feel the Concept exercise has been worth that alone. Though there is much still to learn, and many mistakes still lie ahead no doubt. The icing on the cake would be some profit!!. But that may not have yielded the lessons. Teach a man to fish............

 

[jfgao]

gist

can somebody wrap up this thread in one line??

Can't be stuff reading 114 pages.:whistling

 

[anddy26]

Jfgao
simple...concept is great when its wining and crap when its losing
sandy and others im getting frustrated at reading how all these bad trades are perverse...i think ur having a negative attitude because they are on a loosing run(which i fully understand being downmyself now!)....concept is an end of day system and close to swing trading...zoom out of ur 1hr time zones and u can see where concept get their entries from. i nearly commented about a week ago at the maturity reached by all of us as traders till sniper came along!..i am using it as well as another system but its a SCALPIng system..and two very different trading styles...im sure real traders use both types of systems even if just to hedge. can u imagine the chat we would be having right now if the eurjpy trigger hit..we missed it by 9 pips then fell like a stone for the next cpl of days.i think we would have made at least 500 pips out of that trade..even tho it went about 900 pips. even the last 2 trades worked till news came out..who could have predicted alistar dalling saying the uk is bust..not sniper! sniper just reacted to the price action....
im sticking with concept and learning my own systems like many others but i do not feel foolish in any shape or form for buying and following concept.

Jfgao...in short its not a get rich quick scheme.

 

[wilmer55]

Andy

I've got to agree with you. I maybe 697 pips down but just look at the results 2 trades could turn that position to a small profit. $ positive trades (based on previous results) could put me very easily 697 pips up.

I've paid my money, I've taken my losses so now I hope it is time to make some profit. Time will tell. The money I put in at the beginning I could take as a loss. I never put anything into it unless I can afford to lose it. Don't get me wrong I don't like losing but in this game it is very much a part of life.

I am shall continue to go with the trades and wait for those big 300 - 500 pip wins.

Jfgao
simple...concept is great when its wining and crap when its losing
sandy and others im getting frustrated at reading how all these bad trades are perverse...i think ur having a negative attitude because they are on a loosing run(which i fully understand being downmyself now!)....concept is an end of day system and close to swing trading...zoom out of ur 1hr time zones and u can see where concept get their entries from. i nearly commented about a week ago at the maturity reached by all of us as traders till sniper came along!..i am using it as well as another system but its a SCALPIng system..and two very different trading styles...im sure real traders use both types of systems even if just to hedge. can u imagine the chat we would be having right now if the eurjpy trigger hit..we missed it by 9 pips then fell like a stone for the next cpl of days.i think we would have made at least 500 pips out of that trade..even tho it went about 900 pips. even the last 2 trades worked till news came out..who could have predicted alistar dalling saying the uk is bust..not sniper! sniper just reacted to the price action....
im sticking with concept and learning my own systems like many others but i do not feel foolish in any shape or form for buying and following concept.

Jfgao...in short its not a get rich quick scheme.

 

[puregold24carat]

As i said before : its in the name : CON -cept.

 

[SandyW]

Cut your losses

Sorry guys,

I absolutely refuse to be lead over a cliff with my eyes shut. I hung in with Tradewin in the manner you are now advocating. When it started failing they blamed the market. In the end they pulled the plug, because they had no solution to the problem. Their published account balance stagnated in 2007, and in early 2008 with the published balance dropping significantly, they stopped publishing results. I had seen the writing on the wall 11 months earlier, and stopped trading, after having had the system only 6 months, and made nothing. There was no refund. So I lost my outlay on the system, but not my trading money. It will be the same now, I'm pretty sure.

Here are the last published trades for Tradewin, look familiar?

http://tradewin.co.uk/software/2008.htm

As a former Tradewin client I was offered a substanial discount on Concept, which sucked me in. Although I did a lot of analysis of the results, I simply did not have the ability to determine whether the system would fail in different market conditions. I judged that forex was "different", being such a huge liquid market etc etc. Now I do at least have a little insight.

I always anticipated how it would be to handle losses, and was well prepared for them. I was also one of the people saying stay cool. And I am still cool, and it is a cool deliberate decision to pull the plug. As I said before I cannot possibly open trades which are clearly little more than gambles. I just sidestepped the last two completely, and just as well, as we didn't even get time to manage the loss.

The fact that you have paid so much gives you an exaggerated sense that the only way to get your money back is to hang in. There is a saying, don't throw good money after bad. Cut your losses. But if you can afford it, and it is just a sport or hobby, just let your account dwindle to nothing (if it does). I hope for those of you who decide to do that, that it all turns around. But I won't be looking back.

And anyone is welcome to say I am talking through my hat, or that I am a subversive, or that I have changed my tune!

 

[puregold24carat]

As you laready know: Tradewin/Concept/Asset are perhaps from the same stable.
The selection process they use is BASED upon markets going UP and thus whenever markets turn ( as Ozzies subcribers will confirm ) and volatility increases it tends to throw these methods out of sync and thereby massive losses occur.Its time to ABANDON this SHIP.

 

[wilmer55]

I have to say I am swinging from one position to another at present. I have just looked at some of the historical results and I think what is interesting here is the fact that this is not necessarily Concepts worst performance on a win loss ratio but if you look at the average pip win and loss it probably is. If you look at the results between 11th August 2006 and 27th December there were 28 trades with 20 losses and 8 wins. However the points were net positive 340. What happened there is that the trades went on for longer and all the losses didn't hit the stop losses, infact 3 of the losses were 0 points bringing the average loss at 74 points per losing trade. Since 24th July the average loss has been 101.7 pips per trade. During the 2006 drought the average win was 227.5 pips per trade. Since 24th July it has been 106.67 pips per trade.

This has been brought about by the fact that of the 13 losses we have had 8 have stopped out within the day or the next day. During 2006 this did not happened 4 times.

So if there is anyone here who is looking to purchase this system my advise to you, as a customer and user, is wait. Wait to see the results turn. Not necessarily the win loss ratio but the average pip per win and pip per loss.

Sorry guys,

I absolutely refuse to be lead over a cliff with my eyes shut. I hung in with Tradewin in the manner you are now advocating. When it started failing they blamed the market. In the end they pulled the plug, because they had no solution to the problem. Their published account balance stagnated in 2007, and in early 2008 with the published balance dropping significantly, they stopped publishing results. I had seen the writing on the wall 11 months earlier, and stopped trading, after having had the system only 6 months, and made nothing. There was no refund. So I lost my outlay on the system, but not my trading money. It will be the same now, I'm pretty sure.

Here are the last published trades for Tradewin, look familiar?

http://tradewin.co.uk/software/2008.htm

As a former Tradewin client I was offered a substanial discount on Concept, which sucked me in. Although I did a lot of analysis of the results, I simply did not have the ability to determine whether the system would fail in different market conditions. I judged that forex was "different", being such a huge liquid market etc etc. Now I do at least have a little insight.

I always anticipated how it would be to handle losses, and was well prepared for them. I was also one of the people saying stay cool. And I am still cool, and it is a cool deliberate decision to pull the plug. As I said before I cannot possibly open trades which are clearly little more than gambles. I just sidestepped the last two completely, and just as well, as we didn't even get time to manage the loss.

The fact that you have paid so much gives you an exaggerated sense that the only way to get your money back is to hang in. There is a saying, don't throw good money after bad. Cut your losses. But if you can afford it, and it is just a sport or hobby, just let your account dwindle to nothing (if it does). I hope for those of you who decide to do that, that it all turns around. But I won't be looking back.

And anyone is welcome to say I am talking through my hat, or that I am a subversive, or that I have changed my tune!

 

[SandyW]

Analysis Paralysis

Wilmer,

I think we can get into "analysis paralysis" here. We must remember that the results are almost certainly backtests, at least for much of the time before Concept was marketed. There is a likelihood (and we are carefully never given evidence, just assurances to the contary) that there has been some curve fitting to ensure the system looks good. But we can certainly look at the backtest (be it backtest or real), and look for precedents in the pattern of trades.

But my precedent is my experience with Tradewin, and I just use my sense of smell. And I am smelling a familiar smell. I didn't mention that when the market started failing with Tradewin, they started filtering out trades with a volatility filter. Otherwise no change of algorithm.

That will be the next step with Concept. So the trades will be less frequent, and then the results will start looking bad, and the sales will dry up. And then a new system, with duly curve fitted "results", will lo-and-behold, be being marketed. This could take a year to play out. What misery for everyone! Especially those for whom it is serious business, and not a hobby. Even if it were my hobby, I think it would be more interesting to try trading independently, rather than gamble my money away with someone else's system.

I am ready to eat my words in a year's time, and say "if only", but not before!

Best if I say no more. Give someone else a chance.

 

[pvisser]

As you laready know: Tradewin/Concept/Asset are perhaps from the same stable.
The selection process they use is BASED upon markets going UP and thus whenever markets turn ( as Ozzies subcribers will confirm ) and volatility increases it tends to throw these methods out of sync and thereby massive losses occur.Its time to ABANDON this SHIP.

Yes we all know that Tradewin and Concept are from the same company. You say that they are based on markets going up? Forex trading is not to do with markets going up or down its to do with currency pairs and how they are valued against each other. So I'm not sure what you are actually saying?

 

[puregold24carat]

Trends .All about trends.Think they use MAs ( possibly 5 emas/ 8 emas )crossing onto UPSIDE mostly without checking the OVERALL trend which may be down wherby they tend to have more losses than wins.

 

[timaru69]

have there been any recent signals? (sept)

Trends .All about trends.Think they use MAs ( possibly 5 emas/ 8 emas )crossing onto UPSIDE mostly without checking the OVERALL trend which may be down wherby they tend to have more losses than wins.

Whatever the method (MA or Support Resistance) lower the risk to max of 2% of account rather than 5%, and 2% on cash balance as opposed to starting bank.

At least you'll stay in the game longer