Exactly, I agree. I'm sticking with it and watching the current trade that, judging by the way the chart has gone today will kick in later on this PM, and hopefully not carry on down
Exactly, I agree. I'm sticking with it and watching the current trade that, judging by the way the chart has gone today will kick in later on this PM, and hopefully not carry on down
Hi Andy...that's how I work it out ...fixed fractional...5% of current bank....just got a little thrown by your previous post...incidently it was you're general positive attitude towards Concept that got me looking into it... the system seems robust, but like all systems will have drawdowns...as long as the better trades are big enough it will always win in the end...been using it since beginning of August...and a mixed bag so far...but historically this has been the case...then suddenly one or two huge months...so as you say if a trader were to reduce the risk...the good trades would not really put up the profits that the system can deliver...everybody just hold on to your hats and the big wins will come...
Sean,
You should start by risking 5% of your bank. If the bank increases, you risk 5% of the new level. You then always risk 5% of that, even if the bank subsequently goes lower. If it goes higher again, then your risk is 5% of that higher level. In other words you ratchet up. Never calculate your 5% against a reduced bank. If you do that you are making it harder to recover from losses. If you stake against a reducing bank you may prolong life during a bad run, but you may make recovery near impossible. This is conventional thinking, nothing fancy.
You should start by risking 5% of your bank. If the bank increases, you risk 5% of the new level. You then always risk 5% of that, even if the bank subsequently goes lower. If it goes higher again, then your risk is 5% of that higher level. In other words you ratchet up. Never calculate your 5% against a reduced bank. If you do that you are making it harder to recover from losses. If you stake against a reducing bank you may prolong life during a bad run, but you may make recovery near impossible. This is conventional thinking, nothing fancy.
Hi Sandy...never really looked at it like that as my feeling is 5% per trade is a big risk by conventional standards so I was measuring this against the current size of bank. But what you say makes sense re: recovering from losses. Are there any articles...calculations you could suggest in this regard as I know thatt money management is absolutely crucial to making real profits on any system.
Hi Sandy...never really looked at it like that as my feeling is 5% per trade is a big risk by conventional standards so I was measuring this against the current size of bank. But what you say makes sense re: recovering from losses. Are there any articles...calculations you could suggest in this regard as I know thatt money management is absolutely crucial to making real profits on any system.
Sean,
You are right 5% is high. Some people think you should only risk 1 or 2%.
The only calc I can give you is by way of illustration. If you are 33% down, you need to make 50% to recover. That is difficult. If you are 50% down you need to double your money to recover. How often do you dream of doubling your money!? If you reduce your stakes (this is fear at play in your mind), the prospect of gaining 50%, let alone 100% is diminished considerably, as you have realised.
The moral is to start with small risks. Maybe increase them later if you feel confident. But if you rush into increasing stakes (this is greed at play in your mind), you have to realise you cannot reasonably backtrack (fear kicking in again), when you start having losses.
BTW, I have been in all these places, to my cost. And I still struggle.
You are right 5% is high. Some people think you should only risk 1 or 2%.
The only calc I can give you is by way of illustration. If you are 33% down, you need to make 50% to recover. That is difficult. If you are 50% down you need to double your money to recover. How often do you dream of doubling your money!? If you reduce your stakes (this is fear at play in your mind), the prospect of gaining 50%, let alone 100% is diminished considerably, as you have realised.
The moral is to start with small risks. Maybe increase them later if you feel confident. But if you rush into increasing stakes (this is greed at play in your mind), you have to realise you cannot reasonably backtrack (fear kicking in again), when you start having losses.
BTW, I have been in all these places, to my cost. And I still struggle.
Hi Sandy.. I hear whatyou're saying...I still think it is wiser to meausre your risk against your current bank size...but I know there's a lot of different opinions about this as it all relates to probabilities an dthis in turn effects you bank size...if you get a good run of wins ...early on...you would be better off than if you got a good run of wins later (with a diminished bank)...although when ou get a run of bad trades will also effect the equity curve...
Changing the subject...did you get triggered in the eur/usd trade...I took my trade off until after Trichet and ECB as was concerned about volatility? Waiting for speech to finish then may enter the trade manually if eur looks like strenghthening...
Changing the subject...did you get triggered in the eur/usd trade...I took my trade off until after Trichet and ECB as was concerned about volatility? Waiting for speech to finish then may enter the trade manually if eur looks like strenghthening...
Sean,
Every respect for your opinion. But if you go that route, better to reduce your stake strictly in line with bank, not in a single hit when you are 30% or 50% down!
I have stayed out of the current trade which triggered, so that I can watch. I think this trade does have a good chance, IF it doesn't break through support instead! I'm seeing it as still in a down trend, and that's what makes me nervous. Conventional wisdom with a reversal entry is that you should wait for confirmation of the turn. Concept doesn't do that, and that is a gamble I think.
First off, Listen to Sandy re money management and trading strategy - he's correct. Next, read the last two lines of sean uk's post. He's trading what he sees and should go far. Concept may be ok if you really can't be on here except for a few minutes each evening but, if you're gonna spend the day watching evry pip squeak on the screen, then trade what you see........
Results analysis to date
I suspect somebody has done this but thought I might show results since inception and grapically using a £10k account and Max £3 a pip regardless of CCY pair, I also analysed using £ per pip based on ther recommendations.
A real BLTR of an equity curve, although be interesting to see results in current environment
I am surprised that they do not adjust their stops based on underlying volatility.
Any comments welcome
Cheers
I suspect somebody has done this but thought I might show results since inception and grapically using a £10k account and Max £3 a pip regardless of CCY pair, I also analysed using £ per pip based on ther recommendations.
A real BLTR of an equity curve, although be interesting to see results in current environment
I am surprised that they do not adjust their stops based on underlying volatility.
Any comments welcome
Cheers
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Thanks Timaru. The backtest results are very impressive. However, your second paragraph sums it up nicely. Unfortunately, the future rarely equates to the past. During the backtest period virtually the entire world was going thru a pleasant growth phase and nasty shocks were few and far between. Is the same true now? Volatility has increase markedly. What worked before may not work now....
I seem to recall Tradewin worked really well for many years during this period and then when market conditions changed emptied quite a few trading accounts.
Remember, trade what you see.........
Sorry.
I seem to recall Tradewin worked really well for many years during this period and then when market conditions changed emptied quite a few trading accounts.
Remember, trade what you see.........
Sorry.
No need to be sorry mate I have no intention of buying, was just curious.
Also note that results are not based on a reinvested cumulative "Bank" as doing this distorts the true drawdown i.e bet size is kept the same
One or two on here have expressed horror at the thought that Concept could be a 'Guru' looking at charts etc and not simply automated trading software. Well, let's hope the former is the case, as the Guru may read the news and take note of sentiment and market conditions etc and not simply get you into a trade that the entire trading world can see is wrong.....
Just my thoughts..... Sorry.
Just my thoughts..... Sorry.
stevespray
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It's 100% mechanical in nature.
Ouch..decided not to enter eur/usd because of Trichet's speech...when all seemed done and dusted...then long based on Bank Flow I knew about...Inside knowledge/concept/all the same...probabilities and so 'trade what you see' wins again as the downtrend was still clear and no obvious sign of a bottom...although it's way due now...just undid 3 great days of my own trades by going long eur/usd an dlong gbp/usd!!!!!!!!
