Charts, charts and more charts

Close - Fri 2 Aug 2024
TSM - 5 yrs
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Screenshot from 2024-08-04 10-48-05.png

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source: https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators#:~:text=The LEI is a predictive,cycle by around seven months.

Leading Economic Indicators​

6 months ago (current - 04 Aug 2024)

10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity (T10Y3M)
fred.stlouisfed.org

10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity

View the spread between 10-Year and 3-month Treasury Constant Maturities, which is used to predict recession probabilities.
fred.stlouisfed.org

10 Year-3 Month Treasury Yield Spread (I:10Y3MTS)

10 Year-3 Month Treasury Yield Spread Market Daily Insights: Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates | YCharts

In depth view into 10 Year-3 Month Treasury Yield Spread including historical data from 1962 to 2024, charts and stats.
ycharts.com ycharts.com

The CME FedWatch Tool Aggregated Enhancement, Explained​


FedWatch: Stay up-to-date with the latest probabilities of FOMC rate moves.​

 
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Screenshot from 2024-08-04 22-10-31.png

Stock Markets Crashing | Too Late To Sell? | Chris Vermeulen and Jimmy Connor​

04 Aug 20234

2024 Global Market Outlook: Q3 update​

Is the U.S. economy headed for a soft landing or a recession?​

The main debate is between a soft landing or a recession. The economic data aren’t much help as the slowdown signs can be read as either a healthy rebalancing that allows inflation to cool without triggering negative growth, or the pathway toward a mild recession beginning later this year or early 2025.

The case for a soft landing is that this cycle is so different that the normal rules do not apply. The inflation spike was mostly due to demand recovering more quickly than supply following the Covid-19 pandemic. In contrast to previous Fed tightening episodes, households and the corporate sector did not overborrow, and have been protected from Fed rate hikes by locking in low rates on 30-year mortgages and longer-term corporate bonds. Tight Fed policy has been less painful than usual, which has allowed the economy to slow gradually and bring down inflation without triggering a recession.

But it could also be a case of this time is longer rather than this time is different. The soft landing could overshoot into at least a mild recession. In fact, the resilience of the economy potentially makes the hard-landing more likely by delaying the timing of Fed rate cuts.

 

Fears US is heading for recession triggers global stock market plunge with Japan's Nikkei experiencing worst sell-off since 'Black Monday'​

www.dailymail.co.uk

Fears US is heading for recession triggers global stock market plunge

Experts at investment bank Goldman Sachs said they now believed there was a staggering 25 per cent chance of a recession in the US - up ten percent from their previous estimate of 15 per cent.
www.dailymail.co.uk www.dailymail.co.uk

Reuters: Japan's Nikkei sees biggest rout since 1987 Black Monday​

By Ankur Banerjee and Junko Fujita
August 5, 20249:55 AM GMT+1Updated 3 hours ago
View attachment 336905

5 Yrs
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GOLD
Range indicator - chart bottom:

W1: Hi-Lo range current or last closed week.
W2: Hi-Lo range week 2
W3: Hi-Lo range week 3
W4: Hi-Lo range week 4
W5: Hi-Lo range week 5
HL: Hi-Lo range 5 weeks

5 weeks Hi - 5 Weeks Lo
2483.62 - 2349.38 = 134.23 = 13,423 points range

H4 - weekly divisions
Screenshot from 2024-08-13 17-55-51.png

M30 - daily divisions
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Note: Chart candy is not Ichimoku Cloud.
Kijun-sen ~ Tenkan-sen cloud coding (periods 100-150) by Phylo, aka File45
Indicators downloads >>> https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/280525-kijun-sen-line-indicator

BTW: Kijun-sen and Tenkan-sen are one and the same indicator
Proof:
1. Attach Ichimoku indicator to chart. (note: Ichimoku was designed as a Daily period indicator).
2. Set Kijun-sen and Tenkan-Sen to same period (say, both 26) and set both lines to thickest.
3. Set all other line colors to 'None' - only KS & TS should have colors.
4. Only one indicator appears on the chart - the blue Kijun-sen is overlaid the red Tenkan-sen.
5. Change one indicator to, say 20 - two indicators now appear on the chart.

Nike M15
Screenshot from 2024-08-16 19-44-09.png
 
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