Charts, charts and more charts
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source: https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators#:~:text=The LEI is a predictive,cycle by around seven months.
Leading Economic Indicators
6 months ago (current - 04 Aug 2024)10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity (T10Y3M)
10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity
View the spread between 10-Year and 3-month Treasury Constant Maturities, which is used to predict recession probabilities.
fred.stlouisfed.org
10 Year-3 Month Treasury Yield Spread (I:10Y3MTS)
10 Year-3 Month Treasury Yield Spread Market Daily Insights: Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates | YCharts
In depth view into 10 Year-3 Month Treasury Yield Spread including historical data from 1962 to 2024, charts and stats.
ycharts.com
The CME FedWatch Tool Aggregated Enhancement, Explained
FedWatch: Stay up-to-date with the latest probabilities of FOMC rate moves.
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Stock Markets Crashing | Too Late To Sell? | Chris Vermeulen and Jimmy Connor
04 Aug 202342024 Global Market Outlook: Q3 update
Is the U.S. economy headed for a soft landing or a recession?
The main debate is between a soft landing or a recession. The economic data aren’t much help as the slowdown signs can be read as either a healthy rebalancing that allows inflation to cool without triggering negative growth, or the pathway toward a mild recession beginning later this year or early 2025.The case for a soft landing is that this cycle is so different that the normal rules do not apply. The inflation spike was mostly due to demand recovering more quickly than supply following the Covid-19 pandemic. In contrast to previous Fed tightening episodes, households and the corporate sector did not overborrow, and have been protected from Fed rate hikes by locking in low rates on 30-year mortgages and longer-term corporate bonds. Tight Fed policy has been less painful than usual, which has allowed the economy to slow gradually and bring down inflation without triggering a recession.
But it could also be a case of this time is longer rather than this time is different. The soft landing could overshoot into at least a mild recession. In fact, the resilience of the economy potentially makes the hard-landing more likely by delaying the timing of Fed rate cuts.
Fears US is heading for recession triggers global stock market plunge with Japan's Nikkei experiencing worst sell-off since 'Black Monday'
Fears US is heading for recession triggers global stock market plunge
Experts at investment bank Goldman Sachs said they now believed there was a staggering 25 per cent chance of a recession in the US - up ten percent from their previous estimate of 15 per cent.
www.dailymail.co.uk
Fears US is heading for recession triggers global stock market plunge
Experts at investment bank Goldman Sachs said they now believed there was a staggering 25 per cent chance of a recession in the US - up ten percent from their previous estimate of 15 per cent.
Reuters: Japan's Nikkei sees biggest rout since 1987 Black Monday
By Ankur Banerjee and Junko FujitaAugust 5, 20249:55 AM GMT+1Updated 3 hours ago
View attachment 336905
5 Yrs
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GOLD
Range indicator - chart bottom:
W1: Hi-Lo range current or last closed week.
W2: Hi-Lo range week 2
W3: Hi-Lo range week 3
W4: Hi-Lo range week 4
W5: Hi-Lo range week 5
HL: Hi-Lo range 5 weeks
5 weeks Hi - 5 Weeks Lo
2483.62 - 2349.38 = 134.23 = 13,423 points range
H4 - weekly divisions
M30 - daily divisions
Range indicator - chart bottom:
W1: Hi-Lo range current or last closed week.
W2: Hi-Lo range week 2
W3: Hi-Lo range week 3
W4: Hi-Lo range week 4
W5: Hi-Lo range week 5
HL: Hi-Lo range 5 weeks
5 weeks Hi - 5 Weeks Lo
2483.62 - 2349.38 = 134.23 = 13,423 points range
H4 - weekly divisions
M30 - daily divisions
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