Stock Markets Crashing | Too Late To Sell? | Chris Vermeulen and Jimmy Connor
04 Aug 20234
2024 Global Market Outlook: Q3 update
Is the U.S. economy headed for a soft landing or a recession?
The main debate is between a soft landing or a recession. The economic data aren’t much help as the slowdown signs can be read as either a healthy rebalancing that allows inflation to cool without triggering negative growth, or the pathway toward a mild recession beginning later this year or early 2025.
The case for a soft landing is that this cycle is so different that the normal rules do not apply. The inflation spike was mostly due to demand recovering more quickly than supply following the Covid-19 pandemic. In contrast to previous Fed tightening episodes, households and the corporate sector did not overborrow, and have been protected from Fed rate hikes by locking in low rates on 30-year mortgages and longer-term corporate bonds. Tight Fed policy has been less painful than usual, which has allowed the economy to slow gradually and bring down inflation without triggering a recession.
But it could also be a case of this time is longer rather than this time is different. The soft landing could overshoot into at least a mild recession. In fact, the resilience of the economy potentially makes the hard-landing more likely by delaying the timing of Fed rate cuts.
Experts at investment bank Goldman Sachs said they now believed there was a staggering 25 per cent chance of a recession in the US - up ten percent from their previous estimate of 15 per cent.
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Reuters: Japan's Nikkei sees biggest rout since 1987 Black Monday
W1: Hi-Lo range current or last closed week.
W2: Hi-Lo range week 2
W3: Hi-Lo range week 3
W4: Hi-Lo range week 4
W5: Hi-Lo range week 5
HL: Hi-Lo range 5 weeks
5 weeks Hi - 5 Weeks Lo
2483.62 - 2349.38 = 134.23 = 13,423 points range
BTW: Kijun-sen and Tenkan-sen are one and the same indicator
Proof:
1. Put Ichimoku on chart. (note: Ichimoku was designed as a Daily period indicator).
2. Set Kijun-sen and Tenkan-Sen to same period (say, both 26) and set both lines to thickest.
3. Set all other line colors to 'None' - only KS & TS should have colors.
4. Only one indicator appears on the chart - the blue Kijun-sen is overlaid the red Tenkan-sen.
5. Change one indicator to, say 20 - two indicators now appear on the chart.