Chart Patterns - tosh?

Don't give up old chap. It just takes experience, hours of dedication and effort and unceasing focus and concentration. Keep at it. You'll get there.

Many give up at the first hurdle. Some stumble at the last fence. Those who have the right character will always cross the line. (Hey! I'm getting into this analogising...fun isn't it).

It's just the same with TA - you'll find price & volume will augment it nicely. But you'll need to put in the hours. Start with basic chart patterns (Jiler is good) and then find examples in real-time.

Post them on the boards and others can give their critique of your interpretations. That way, you get to learn far more quickly than you will doing it all by yourself.
 
Salty Gibbon said:
Re - wives: Yeah, you gotta keep them chained up in the kitchen pal.
Now Hang On A Minute There Salty. This is my spot. I've got my knee deep manure pile just the way I like it, and there is only room for one of us in this pen. You'll have to move along.
JO
 
pttrader said:
P-L-E-A-S-E tell me what my wife is going to do next!

pttrader

Do you really want to know? What if she's on the other side of town? How would you stop her?
You wouldn't be able to concentrate on your trading.

Split
 
Well Tony,
I used to have a sort of solid lumpen model that Mum said you needed to heat on the gas ring, but after we turned to electric for cooking shoving the iron into the electric ring got a bit exciting, so we had to stop. I currently have two models, almost identical, except for power rating. I've asked the local paper shop to save me copies of 'Soldering On', a magazine for ex-armed forces types who enjoy a good spot of tinning. I sent for a trial copy of a US mag called 'Solder of Fortune' but after 3 months in Nicaragua following up an advert it seems I misread the title on that one.

Boddingtons would be better.
Dave
 
all,

Why don't you add something useful to this thread instead of always cutting down the way others trade. No matter who it is or what they say if it is TA you are going to cut on it. Why don't you just go to some investor site (not a traders site) and stay there instead of stiring up stuff with your nonsense. I am begining to wonder if you have ever bought a stock or futures in your entire life. Or maybe you have and had some bitter experience and need to take revenge by harrasing others who are trying to learn something. For my part we don't need people like you on this thread. You are not adding anything of use that I can see.

Add something of use, interesting, what I have added is an alternate viewpoint. This viewpoint does not gell with the majority viewpoint, and that seems to be a major problem for some, yourself included.

As yet no-one has put forward a rational argument for charts or technicals, apart from the usual .....look at me, I can do it, well mabe yes, mabe no, but can the toiling mass of average traders ever turn a profit, the general evidence from studies would seem to be a deafining no.

The reasons for this I have previously detailed. One would have thought that people on this board would want to discuss how to monitor the fluctuating success rate of the "PROBABILITY SETUPS" that they trade.

Go to an investors site.........unfortunately they are quite rare, and I haven't found one, mabe I need to look harder.

Nonsense.......what nonsense might that be? You have yet to be able to repudiate a single assertion that I have made. Likewise for a number of others.

If I have ever traded a stock or future, ........on the evidence so far, you look by far the best bet by a long shot, your lack of knowledge has been exposed numerous times.

A bitter experience, and revenge taking.........An alternate viewpoint does not by definition indicate a negative stance due to misfortune, but even assuming that it did, would you not like to balance all the positive posts with some negative? Surely when undertaking research, as our erstwhile PhD in physics, you need a hypothesis, and a null-hypothesis?

He's honest enough to admit that not every trade is a winner. Has he not demonstrated in these trades great skill by 'cutting his losses short and letting the winner run'?

timsk,.......That is the problem, He has been guilty of perpetuating a myth of infallibility around Level2. This is just not the case. It is as fallible as any other technical method out there. The big winner that was experienced could have been caught with a trailing stop. The fallibility is clearly demonstrated with the 2 losses, and 1 small winner. If Level2 was as superior as claimed, then those 2 losses would never have been entered in the first place, as level2 would have ILLUMINATED to micro-analysis, that these trades were traps for the unwary.

The reason for this of course is that there was no pullback intra-day of any significance. This would have allowed a number of strategies to return the winner. On any number of trades posted, you see, out with $0.24 profit etc. These numbers are achievable with standard technicals.........he himself utilised a fib ratio, .....combine with a stoploss, trailing, and ergo, trade winner.

Your quite right. But in the context in which Mr. Charts uses it, he means the exacty opposite from what I suspect you think he means. To clarify, if I've understood Mr. Charts' position correctly on the subject of R:R, he prefers to work on probability rather than pure R:R because the latter is too subjective and involves too much guesswork.

Thats fine, and I can accept that at face value. But why not discuss what constitutes a high probability R/R, and WHY it is a high probability, more importantly, do these probabilities change over time, conditions, or both?

This is a very odd remark. I've been reading these boards for quite a while now and, in my experience, probability is seldom mentioned. In fact, I started a thread to discuss this very subject and it petered out quite quickly

I agree, I was being sarcastic. There is little or no discussion of the reasons as to why (generally) people lose money, and how to stop losing money. These boards are dominated by a number of posters who for their own reasons stiffle discussion.

"As to your reading of the tape, why did your tape reading skills not inform you in your losing trades that it was a no momentum day here?"
Perhaps it did, which is why his losses were so small

I don't think so. His skills, while better than many, are still subject to the general failure and logical weakness of T/A. Contrary to popular opinion, while I do not use T/A myself, neither do I condemn it out of hand, but if you use it, at least use it with your eyes open.

"Useful for what. This is simply a propaganda piece for Level2. You do teach Level2 I believe"?
find it very useful to have the input of a very experienced full time pro trader who is generous enough to devote his time for free so that less experienced traders like myself may learn. For the record, Mr. Charts does indeed teach - but level2 is not the core subject of his coaching. Perhaps you are confusing Mr. Charts with Naz, who is a very well known and highly regarded Nasdaq Level2 trader

Fair comment, however, I still find (this is obviously just myself) that his posts promote level2 far in excess of its usefulness. However I am quite prepared to be proven wrong.

On a general note D998, whilst pttraders comments are perhaps a tad harsh, your general tone is discourteous and unnecessarily beligerant - for no obvious reason. That is to say, no one treats you in the way that you treat them. Please show a little more respect!

On this point I beg to differ. The attemts to kill off the thread by dimwits inc displays extremely discourteous and rude behaviour. Now, if they disagree, then by logical argument prove me wrong, if unable to do so, which to date is the case, then either concede or just abstain. However there is just a concerted effort to post gibberish and thereby kill off the thread.

They will probably succeed, however who are the real losers? The people who actually use these boards to learn something. As I stated previously, you obviously don't like what I have to say, but if I am so wrong, then logically it should be an easy matter to prove me wrong. That this has not happened, would seem to indicate that what I espouse should at least be considered.

Cheers d998
 
No sunshine,
what happens is people disagree with you, you tell them they're incorrect, and despite not proving anything yourself (you theorise a lot, which I believe you mistake for proof) you castigate others for not proving what they say. You don't actually get to make the 'rules to argue by' up, it isn't up to you to decide what constitutes proof of a technique or otherwise, and your insistence that absolutely everyone other than yourself is wrong is crashingly boring. Fundamentals are not only discussed but positively drooled over on countless threads on The Motley Fool website, amongst others... go check.

Now kindly leave me and Tony to discuss soldering and a touch of light brazing in peace.
Dave
 
JB,
Without dredging up numerous examples of refutation, and factual responses, while I may well theorise, most are backed with factual information.

I castigate you particularly, as a self claimed physicist, with a possible research background you offer an example with a sample of 4 of your own trades. Not terribly impressive.

You don't actually get to make the 'rules to argue by' up, it isn't up to you to decide what constitutes proof of a technique or otherwise, and your insistence that absolutely everyone other than yourself is wrong is crashingly boring

True, and if I am wrong, it should be very easy for the collective and combined intellect to show me the error in my thinking. That it has yet to happen should tell you something.
If its too boring for you, well abstain. But thats not your way is it......boring for you means it just must be boring for everyone, therefore you elect yourself as a spoiler.

As it has obviously escaped your notice, I was discussing technicals, not fundamentals.
 
self claimed physicist,
can't even get that right pal.
Good luck, you aren't discussing Fundamentals - you are continually challenging Technical analysis users to 'prove' what they are already happy with, as if we have some duty to meet your criteria for proof - which we do not. Discussion is a two way process. Have fun,
Dave
 
Add something of use, interesting, what I have added is an alternate viewpoint.
What viewpoint? I have yet to see you say anything useful for trading muchless investing.

Go to an investors site.........unfortunately they are quite rare, and I haven't found one, mabe I need to look harder.
So you aren't trader that uses TA nor are you an investor? Surely you would know about some investors sites if you were. Or did your brain cook up all your strategies for trading? And if you were a trader you wouldn't spit out such venom against all TA ideas. So I must be right. You must never have traded stock or futures. Or of you did you must have lost your shirt and have become bitter. Maybe you buy real estate??

Thats fine, and I can accept that at face value. But why not discuss what constitutes a high probability R/R, and WHY it is a high probability, more importantly, do these probabilities change over time, conditions, or both?
All probabilities change over time and so do conditions. Simply because the conditions change the probabilities change. Your talk is meaningless.

I don't think so. His skills, while better than many, are still subject to the general failure and logical weakness of T/A. Contrary to popular opinion, while I do not use T/A myself, neither do I condemn it out of hand, but if you use it, at least use it with your eyes open.
Hey how about something constructive. I am sure all of us would like to hear YOUR plan for trading/investing that is not "I'm sure" subject to general failure and logical weakness as Mr. Charts is according to you. You analize ours, so let us see YOURS. How about subjecting your plan to the board? What's wrong? You don't have a plan? Are you afraid to have it picked apart? Come on be a good sport let us know how you trade..that is..if you trade.

The attemts to kill off the thread by dimwits inc displays extremely discourteous and rude behaviour.
Well, well, you finally got around to describing yourself!

would seem to indicate that what I espouse should at least be considered.
The problem is you haven't espoused anything? Please espouse something for us so we can see what your spouse looks like! Thank you!

use these boards to learn something.
What will they learn from you? How to trash TA? Maybe how to argue? Maybe how to add nothing of consequence to a thread? Please give us your plan for trading/investing. What is good in your books? We need to know since nothing we do is any good. Hopefully you can lift us up out of our miserable condition ad grant us the knowledge to make 1000% instead of 100% - 300% per year. We desperately need your plan. Please post it rapidly so we too can trash TA in the rubbish.
 
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Salty,
my wife's not really a prediction, more a sort of elemental force.Mind you, I've half a mind to go find one of them welders she occasionally goes on about, a 'brazing hussy' I think she calls them, they sound AWFULLY good fun.
Dave
 
pttrader said:
What viewpoint? I have yet to see you say anything useful for trading muchless investing.



So you aren't trader that uses TA nor are you an investor? Surely you would know about some investors sites if you were. Or did your brain cook up all your strategies for trading? And if you were a trader you wouldn't spit out such venom against all TA ideas. So I must be right. You must never have traded stock or futures. Or of you did you must have lost your shirt and have become bitter. Maybe you buy real estate??

Hi pttrader,

I don't post often but do read the thread. Dubatti gets skipped as soon as I see his name.
All I ask you and the others is...... Please Don't Quote Him So Much! :LOL:

Split
 
JB,

I think we disagree fairly fundamentally on the value of TA, which is fine.... it would be a dull world indeed if all were to operate in agreement all the time. As a physicist (however) I feel compelled to argue against your statement:-

Oh, from page 4 of this rapidly degenerating thread, JB claiming to be a physicist, so what exactly did I get incorrect. That you cannot even remember your own postings hardly fills me with confidence in any musings you may have about the stock market. I think you have found your intellectual level discussing that thrilling hobby of yours.

pttrader,
If you stopped frothing so indignantly, you might remember some of the lessons you learned. Remember that one about the Company director that wanted a car or somesuch, some lame example that you dreamt up to try and make a point..........except that you didn't know what you were talking about.

trading/investing that is not "I'm sure" subject to general failure and logical weakness as Mr. Charts is according to you. You analize ours, so let us see YOURS. How about subjecting your plan to the board? What's wrong? You don't have a plan? Are you afraid to have it picked apart? Come on be a good sport let us know how you trade..that is..if you trade.

ANALYSE.....Yes I have analysed your technical position, and what makes technical traders tick, so to speak. It is in my interests to do so, I after all wish to maximise my investments. Am I afraid to have it picked apart............by the likes of you?....I doubt you could pick apart a chicken bone much less my strategy, however, for the sake of fairness, lets give it a try.

My strategy involves investing in bankruptcies......Lets see what you have.

The problem is you haven't espoused anything? Please espouse something for us so we can see what your spouse looks like! Thank you!

Well pttrader, I await your elucidation with bated breath.

Cheers d998
 
Please make it stop!

d998,

Roughly ~

80% of day traders are losing.
About another 10% are breaking even
The remaining 10% are profitable.

Nobody disagrees with this!

The profitable 10% may be using any combination of TA tools: Level 2, market depth, tape reading, geometry, market profile, pattern recognition, Gann etc. Sometimes one tool is better than another, at other times they may use almost all at once. They may even add a dash of FA into the mix.

Regardless, it is a fact that a small proportion of traders, using skill, knowledge, discipline, sound money management and the tool(s) of their choice are making excellent returns week in week out. Odd that they can do this despite having tools that you say only offer 50% expectancy.

As I'm sure DaveJB and others have already said:

The trader creates his/her own expectancy, it is not a percentage determined independently in advance by the tools (s)he uses.

Agreed?
 
My strategy involves investing in bankruptcies......Lets see what you have.
So, now we know what DUCATI does. I don't in particular like the title. Sounds like it might lead to bankruptcy! But what kind of bancruptcies? You didn't tell us DUCATI. Personal, businesses,...chicken farms (since you like to pick bones). How do you know a chicken farm is going bankrupt? Do the chickens lose their feathers first?

Anyway, Ducati I have never had any dealings with bancruptcies so I will be the first to admit "I am ignorant" of this field. However, bankruptcies could be profitable. I don't know. I just don't like the name! I guess I won't be picking any bones apart on this one! But also I imagine others might need more info as to what kind of bankrupties you are talking about and how you go about it. Otherwise, they may not be able to pick any bones either!

I might add that at least for me now that we "know" what you do you have invalidated all your comments about TA. Why? Because you have now shown us you what you do and it has nothing to do with TA! Or am I wrong in making that asumption. Ducati please don't tell me you use TA in bankruptcies! Surely you wouldn't use TA behind our backs would you? Thank you for supplying that piece of information to all of us in this thread. Now we "know" we can "safely: ignore all your comments on TA as you have publicly stated what you do, and it obviousely must have nothing to do with TA, unless, of course Ducati does indeed, in some mysterious way, use TA in bankruptcies.

Ducati this will probally be my last conversation via post with you. I am getting some feedback from others in the thread and I think we might be irritating some of them with our spirited verbal exchanges. I must consider the thinking of others on this matter and respect them too so I must refrain from allowing this thread to be a battle between you and me over the feasabilities of TA. I can at least control what I do in the matter.

I realize that at times I may have been harsh and to close out in a good spirit about matters I now publicly appologize if I caused offense to you in my posts. I also appologize for what may have been seen to be personal attacks against you. I hope you did not take them in that way. Some of the things I said could be taken that away. What I was really attacking was your attitude not you as a person. I am sure you have your manner of making money as I do. To each his own. I might add it has been fun talking you and I wish you the best in your investments. Hope you feel the same about me! But enough is enough and I think we are getting on the nerves of others. Have a great day DUCATI! Please don't go bankrupt!

pttrader
 
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frugi,

80% of day traders are losing.
About another 10% are breaking even
The remaining 10% are profitable.

Well it seemed everyone was disagreeing with this. However, the question that I was raising is WHY?

Is it as some would have it, purely an individual, experience, psychological, technical expertise, ie. within the domain of the individual?
Or, is it an intrinsic failure of T/A itself?

My position has been that while the individual traits are important, and will make a difference, that the hidden culprit lies within a failure of the philosophy and methodology of T/A itself.

Now, if I argued that point on a Fundamentals forum, all would be in agreement (I hope), therefore it must be argued on a technical forum to generate a negative response, and logical reasons as to why I am sadly misinformed. However no-one as yet has shown any convincing evidence of T/A being a successful strategy..........and now FRUGI confirms that the numbers look bad.

Why would anyone take up T/A when the numbers are so stacked against you.
Part of the answer seems to be embedded in belief systems. That is to say, I believe with hard work study, I can enter the magical 10%. This belief is so entrenched that all the points I have raised have not been discussed in a rational manner, rather I am just a belligerant looking for a fight.

Regardless, it is a fact that a small proportion of traders, using skill, knowledge, discipline, sound money management and the tool(s) of their choice are making excellent returns week in week out. Odd that they can do this despite having tools that you say only offer 50% expectancy.

I have never questioned that a small proportion will be profitable. What about the LARGE proportion? Unfortunately, 50% expectancy is an accurate figure.

pttrader,
So, now we know what the great DUCATI does. I don't in particular like the title. Sounds like it might lead to bankruptcy!

What is the daytraders great fear? That the stock he is trading is suspended while he has a position, and the news is adverse to his position.

Now with a bankruptcy, what is the only direction it can go? Well actually it can still go both ways, but guess what.........the judge will tell you legally the only way it can go. Therefore, my expectancy is 100% when I place a position.

I might add that at least for me now that we "know" what you do you have invalidated all your comments about TA. Why? Because you have now shown us you what you do and it has nothing to do with TA! Or am I wrong in making that asumption. Ducati please don't tell me you use TA in bankruptcies! Thank you for supplying that piece of information to all of us in this thread. Now we "know" we can "safely: ignore all your comments on TA as you have publicly stated what you do and it obviousely must have nothing to do with TA unless of course Ducati does indeed in some mysterious way use TA in bankruptcies

How does my non-useage invalidate my having any knowledge of it?
You were free to ignore my comments from any point. The issue should be, has anyone actually answered to any satisfaction the concerns raised with T/A. I don't believe they have been answered, however I do have a bias.

I very rarely take it personally, and enjoy the battle of personal opinion, and wish you every success.

cheers d998
 
Hi Ducatti,
sorry, I didn't realise I had to explain logical processes to this extent - 'DaveJB' (not JB)
JB claiming to be a physicist,
- I haven't forgotten what I said at all, I AM a physicist pal, my point was I'm not a
self claimed physicist,
'm the sort with degrees in the subject, membership in the relevant professional institution, and I'm also head of a department of Physicists... there's no 'self claimed' in that, I consider it pretty well accepted by the scientific community that I'm the genuine article old boy, and I therefore take exception to the suggestion that I'm only a physicist in my own delusional existence. For what it's worth I consider it rather uncivilised to snipe at my professional standing as if that somehow casts some sort of light on my trading ability - I haven't attacked you personally in this, other than to say I think you're talking b****ks, I'm more than slightly amazed that almost 200 posts into this thread, with not a single post in support of your ranting, you haven't begun to wonder if you are the odd one out here?

You invest in bankruptcies - WOW, and you poke fun at chart users? So you put money into companies that have a proven track record of being unable to function within their budget... keep taking the dried frog pills old chap, and I hope you grow out of it in time.

Tony, I was talking to our technician earlier and he put in for a replacement for his soldering iron (fumes, no extractor fan, a wonderful example of H&S legislation put to good use) and the council bought him... wait for it... a brand new iron, soldering stand, and it has a (drumroll) built in extractor fan! How neat is that? Let me know if I should upload a JPG, a delay may be encountered as we're on hols until Tuesday.
What are you views re seperate flux or multicore, by the way?

Dave
 
Part of the answer seems to be embedded in belief systems. That is to say, I believe with hard work study, I can enter the magical 10%. This belief is so entrenched that all the points I have raised have not been discussed in a rational manner, rather I am just a belligerant looking for a fight.

Yes, because you cannot logically argue that because only 10% of people using a system win, the system is invalid. That human beings are capricious creatures prone to joining non-existent dots is well known. People have been 'given' trading rules to follow in the past, done passably at it (this is how a trainer would seek to advertise their method - take genuine newbies and teach them to win over X weeks), then they get cocky, deviate from the plan, and screw up... mistaking their gains for competence they decide they know better than to follow the rules that are showing a profit.

TA is bloody difficult to get right, that does nor invalidate TA, it just means that as 90% of the population are too preoccupied to devote the required time to it they fail. Approximately 10% of aircrew applicants to the Airforce failed initial selection when I went through the mill - this did not 'prove' man couldn't fly, it proved that the majority could not hack it in one form or another. You are 'proving' the wrong thing, we KNOW TA is difficult and that many fail, we also know that of those who work hard at it a much higher percentage go on to do well with it. Many of the 90% failures are people who think you can read one book over a weekend and extract money from the market for the rest of creation and jack their jobs in.

NOBODY is arguing here that TA is 'the way' for the majority - the majority are going to lose using ANY methodology. Nobedy is claiming it works for anyone outside the small number who work at it, some of them will also fail. That does NOT invalidate TA, it means that the hard working section who fail need to look for an alternative investing method, and the other 85% should try working for a living.

I offer this in the faint hope you will stop haranguing TA users who are doing okay, and (particularly) stop playing silly games where you twist what people say to suit your own agenda. I still genuinely believe you came onto this board purely to argue the toss, and I doubt I'm alone in that idea.

Dave
 
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