Chart Patterns - tosh?

"This applies equally well to stock market trading, working out what your wife is going to do next or building a rocket launcher in your back garden".

Salty, if you can work out what my wife is going to do next - or anyone elses wife for that matter - then I suggest you stop trading immediately and market your wife prediction service. Mr Buffett's bank balance is a mere drop in the ocean compared to the fortune you stand to make!
:cheesy:
Tim.
 
Great idea Tim

I could sell wife prediction kits and market them online.

Absolutely excellent idea.

I will cease trading immediately and become a professional wife predictor..
 
Wife predictions - tosh?

Do you have any proof that the expectancy of your wife prediction is above 50/50? :LOL:
 
"Random chaotic momentum cannot be accurately predicted."

Time and Sales tend to be an excellent predictor, but stop losses are difficult to enforce with significant slippage.
Resistance is minimal, however ;-0
Richard
 
Yes Richard, Time and Sales.

The Time the wife spends at the Sales can be accurately predicted but it is very difficult to place a stop loss on her credit card and the result is slippage in one's bank account.

Resistance to one's efforts to prevent this type of slippage is very high indeed and not minimal in my experience.
 
pttrader,

So don't tell me the numbers without the "why" are a waste of time. I simply DO NOT care to know the "why"! Don't need to!

No, all you have to do is do your best to factor in the manipulation. It can be seen in tape reading and in price action apparently something you do not do too often. But enough. Keep your noggin buried in the sand. Keep on with your so called "safe" trading methods.

There is only one of us with our head buried. I am always willing to learn anything that improves my ability to safely make money, alas, the same could not be said of yourself.

Naz,

Lets remember a $1 move in a stock can be a day's money for a day trader.I can make that in 1-5 mins with Google at times.If anyone out there can let me know a better way of taking and managing my position,please let me see it in action and if its better i'll gladly change.

But lets put this in context, GOOG is currently a $200 stock. Even $4 of movement represents a 2% price move, now unless you are trading your WHOLE ACCOUNT on this 1 position, what in reality is your ROC?
The only way people will build wealth is to return as high a CONSISTENT % on their whole account, preferably leaving in all or most of their profit.
As a daytrader I appreciate that this in addition to teaching traders is how you earn your living, and thus need to remove money for living expenses.

Consider this;
The maxim of daytrading follows somewhat as this, cut your losses quickly, keep losses small, trade only favourable risk/reward ratios, let your profitable trades run.

Now, assuming all daytraders are disciplined, and adhere to these basic tenets, then by definition for every winning daytrader who shows a $1 profit, there will be 10 losing daytraders cutting their losses at $0.10, or any multiple you care to work with.
Now in reality this is inaccurate, but the point has relevance none the less.......daytraders compete with daytraders in the majority, and more must lose to allow the few to win.

trendie,

patterns, s/r, retractements can be found on different time-frames, because traders with different time-frames act in their particular time-frame.

This is true, but still does not tell the whole truth.

Mr Charts,

This is not some magic method, but is a skills set which can be learnt but then which requires considerable experience to master.

And the greater the number of people who do learn it, and utilise the method, the less effective that it will become. This must be true as the greater numbers will force the average price you pay to enter up, and the average price you pay to exit down.
This is why that when a profitable method is found, people will try to minimise the spread of information, or even provide mis-information.
Having said that, it still relies on the individual skill and tempermant to such a large degree, that many will never master the skills even should they understand the methodology, as it is so subjective.

Cheers d998
 
roguetrader said:
Do you have any proof that the expectancy of your wife prediction is above 50/50? :LOL:

50/50 is not good enough. Do you realise the damage my wife can do with a 50% success rate? I might just as well let her have a free rein, I still wouldn't sleep well at night.

Split
 
50/50 is not good enough. Do you realise the damage my wife can do with a 50% success rate? I might just as well let her have a free rein, I still wouldn't sleep well at night.

Yeah, you gotta keep them chained up in the kitchen pal.
 
Salty Gibbon said:
Great idea Tim

I could sell wife prediction kits and market them online.

Absolutely excellent idea.

I will cease trading immediately and become a professional wife predictor..
Salty I will become your first customer. Hey I would settle for an 80% system. P-L-E-A-S-E tell me what my wife is going to do next! Hey man you could do a muti-level marketing with these wife prediction kits. You could return manhood to it rightful place in a liberated world. I would hope your kit includes a section on women and their emotions.

pttrader
 
I predict my wife will exceed 50% with ease.
Primarily, but not exclusively, at 'doing as she pleases'.
I spent 2 hours looking for a soldering iron yesterday, mainly because our garage is full of her junk (2 fairly expensive cars sit on the drive while she stores 30 yr old lampshades inside - 'expensive' -hey, we're talking the Highlands here, "lowering the suspension and boosting the sound system" are accomplished by shoving a noisy Ram on the back of the ex army 1973 Land Rover).

My wife is a descending triangle, or is she an above average P/E with a low NAV? I'm confused now... what was the thread about again?

Dave
 
Mr Charts

Price gapped up and ran to $75, had a few attempts to breach it, failed,came back to the Fibonacci 50% retracement at 74.77 (good stuff Naz !). Looking at the chart all you can see is the price falling....... However charts are not the whole story and my micro analysis of the detailed price action showed buying support building at this level so I went long as shown on the first chart. A pure chartist would be horrified at going long there ;-) I do think you have to see the whole picture, not just one piece in the mosaic

Looking at the chart what you actually see is a bullish gap, and then some price weakness, but as you state, falling to a Fib level. Chartists use these levels as well, so there is every possibility that they would draw the same conclusions, and be no more horrified than anyone else going long at that level. Do you seriously think that you see the "whole picture" from level2, I am amazed at your misinformation.

It was very unlikely that support at that level was going to fail and it didn't. Had it done so I would have been out for a loss of, at worst, a few cents as on today's two losing trades.

Why was it unlikely? What objective reason was there that made it unlikely? Or was it a purely subjective call? After all your micro-analysis of the other trades had you with 2 losses and a small gain today. Level2 had already failed twice today, what had changed the probabilities in your favour on this trade? (showing a 50% probability on the day)

That was my risk. The reward was unpredictable so the R/R could not be guessed at.
Theres that word "guess" again

Again the actual probability of failure was low and the probability of success high - factors most people do not even consider when they think about R/R - they tend to believe it's 50/50......

Probability calculated how? Based on what evidence? Or are we talking subjective experience again? I suspect everyone would consider the probabilities, after all, little else is discussed when T/A is the subject. No, not the probabilities being 50/50, they are variable, the EXPECTANCY is 50% (give or take) obviously not paying attention.

did not run this trade as a quick scalp type move because I could see from the micro analysis of trades printing off, buy and sell pressures, and the behaviour of the market participants that there was probably more momentum left

If some poor chartist had run a trailing stop, they also would have caught the whole move. It was simply one of those lucky days where no pullbacks of any significance allow a decent profit. As to your reading of the tape, why did your tape reading skills not inform you in your losing trades that it was a no momentum day here?

hope someone finds the above useful.

Useful for what. This is simply a propaganda piece for Level2. You do teach Level2 I believe?
Cheers d998
 
DaveJB said:
I predict my wife will exceed 50% with ease.
Primarily, but not exclusively, at 'doing as she pleases'.
I spent 2 hours looking for a soldering iron yesterday, mainly because our garage is full of her junk (2 fairly expensive cars sit on the drive while she stores 30 yr old lampshades inside - 'expensive' -hey, we're talking the Highlands here, "lowering the suspension and boosting the sound system" are accomplished by shoving a noisy Ram on the back of the ex army 1973 Land Rover).

My wife is a descending triangle, or is she an above average P/E with a low NAV? I'm confused now... what was the thread about again?

Dave

Does your wife know that she isnt the only stock in your portfolio ! :LOL: :LOL:
 
Useful for what. This is simply a propaganda piece for Level2. You do teach Level2 I believe?
Why don't you add something useful to this thread instead of always cutting down the way others trade. No matter who it is or what they say if it is TA you are going to cut on it. Why don't you just go to some investor site (not a traders site) and stay there instead of stiring up stuff with your nonsense. I am begining to wonder if you have ever bought a stock or futures in your entire life. Or maybe you have and had some bitter experience and need to take revenge by harrasing others who are trying to learn something. For my part we don't need people like you on this thread. You are not adding anything of use that I can see.

Adios

pttrader
 
d998,
"Do you seriously think that you see the "whole picture" from level2, I am amazed at your misinformation".
I suspect you are the one who is misinformed. Mr. Charts refers to his analysis of price action, which isn't necessarily level2. He could be refering to his tape reading or chart reading skills.

"After all your micro-analysis of the other trades had you with 2 losses and a small gain today. Level2 had already failed twice today, what had changed the probabilities in your favour on this trade?"
Even if Mr. Charts was using level2 to make his entries and exits, why has it failed? He's honest enough to admit that not every trade is a winner. Has he not demonstrated in these trades great skill by 'cutting his losses short and letting the winner run'?

"Theres that word "guess" again".
Your quite right. But in the context in which Mr. Charts uses it, he means the exacty opposite from what I suspect you think he means. To clarify, if I've understood Mr. Charts' position correctly on the subject of R:R, he prefers to work on probability rather than pure R:R because the latter is too subjective and involves too much guesswork.

"I suspect everyone would consider the probabilities, after all, little else is discussed when T/A is the subject".
This is a very odd remark. I've been reading these boards for quite a while now and, in my experience, probability is seldom mentioned. In fact, I started a thread to discuss this very subject and it petered out quite quickly!

"As to your reading of the tape, why did your tape reading skills not inform you in your losing trades that it was a no momentum day here?"
Perhaps it did, which is why his losses were so small.

"Useful for what. This is simply a propaganda piece for Level2. You do teach Level2 I believe"?
I find it very useful to have the input of a very experienced full time pro trader who is generous enough to devote his time for free so that less experienced traders like myself may learn. For the record, Mr. Charts does indeed teach - but level2 is not the core subject of his coaching. Perhaps you are confusing Mr. Charts with Naz, who is a very well known and highly regarded Nasdaq Level2 trader.

On a general note D998, whilst pttraders comments are perhaps a tad harsh, your general tone is discourteous and unnecessarily beligerant - for no obvious reason. That is to say, no one treats you in the way that you treat them. Please show a little more respect!

Tim.
 
...anyway, would you believe it, but I found the original soldering iron yesterday!
Tony, as I'm sure this would fascinate you no end, any time you are nearby DO drop in to view my soldering iron collection. (Bring beer).

Trendie - as I tell the wife, I'm too old to play around with wimmin any more. (Only I know I'm including her in the cull).

PTT/Timsk - pointless, hence even I gave up... save yourselves a bit of stress guys, you can't change a fanatic... and only a fanatic looking for an argument would join a TA board to post 'TA sucks' messages, which isn't inviting debate, it's no better than turning up at a classical recital wearing a Def Leppard T shirt and complaining the music's boring.

Chartman posted some decent stuff, which I'm sure the majority took in the spirit it was given - I wish I was consistently as bad as he is!
Dave
 
DaveJB said:
...anyway, would you believe it, but I found the original soldering iron yesterday!
Tony, as I'm sure this would fascinate you no end, any time you are nearby DO drop in to view my soldering iron collection. (Bring beer).

Trendie - as I tell the wife, I'm too old to play around with wimmin any more. (Only I know I'm including her in the cull).

PTT/Timsk - pointless, hence even I gave up... save yourselves a bit of stress guys, you can't change a fanatic... and only a fanatic looking for an argument would join a TA board to post 'TA sucks' messages, which isn't inviting debate, it's no better than turning up at a classical recital wearing a Def Leppard T shirt and complaining the music's boring.

Chartman posted some decent stuff, which I'm sure the majority took in the spirit it was given - I wish I was consistently as bad as he is!
Dave
Thanks DaveJB for the advice.

I think you are right. Waste of time talking to "el fanatico".

Have a great day!

pttrader
 
DaveJB said:
...anyway, would you believe it, but I found the original soldering iron yesterday!
Tony, as I'm sure this would fascinate you no end, any time you are nearby DO drop in to view my soldering iron collection. (Bring beer).
WOW! Really! Like, how many do you have Dave? Are they mounted or just loose, in a box? How long have you been collecting? Do you belong to a club? Have you ever used one in anger? Are they electric, gas or externally heated (in a fire) - or do you have all types? Do you find many people to do swapsies with? Do you lay awake at night thinking about that hard to find model?

Try:-

www.solderingand weldingworld.com

Next time I'm North of Surf City I'll drop by. Molsen OK?
 
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