Cable opinions...

[Tickdoc]

A couple of small breakouts north and south, but both have rapidly returned to the range, still waiting for the big move out of the decreasing range identified on the daily...

 

[Tickdoc]

Bearish RSI div leading me to a short, but let's see what NFP brings tomorrow!

 

[alan5616]

Bearish RSI div leading me to a short, but let's see what NFP brings tomorrow!

I hope you managed to get some of the down move.

 

[Tickdoc]

Yup! Went short 16410 after the initial pullback after the breakout, stop at the ma100=16500. Took profit at 16170 once it looked like rallying again. Pretty sweet

 

[Tickdoc]

For this week, to be honest I should have kept my short open because the original reason for my trade is still in place with a downtrend in place but didn't have the nerve. It will be back to watching for a bit a think. G8 might bring up some news about dollar's future as a reserve currency and there's a massive hammer on the daily...

 

[Tickdoc]

The daily...The breakout is there but what with the hammer that has formed and the fact that it only broke the diminishing range and not the former recent lows, as I said, I'm watching...

 

[alan5616]

The daily...The breakout is there but what with the hammer that has formed and the fact that it only broke the diminishing range and not the former recent lows, as I said, I'm watching...

Couldn't have a much better day for trading £/$. Sell signal when it broke short term support level @ 1.6265. All the way down to bounce off the major support at 1.61 and rebound right back to the previous short term support level. Potential to have taken 300 pts out of the two trades. I didn't, but had a fairly good slice out of both of them.

 

[alan5616]

The daily...The breakout is there but what with the hammer that has formed and the fact that it only broke the diminishing range and not the former recent lows, as I said, I'm watching...

Hi Ticdoc,

As you can tell by the above post, my preference is for day trading as opposed to taking a longer term view. I've done longer term trading but, all too frequently, after being in a trade for a week or more, the price came right back to where it was when I entered.

Imho, shorter tf trading is more profitable because it allows the flexibility of trading price action on that day and taking advantage of substantial swings in either direction. Often, like today, there will be good moves in both directions.

Have you considered day trading or are you a confirmed long term trader? Day trading gets a bad press, unjustifiably in my opinion. Just because there is a particular pattern on the daily chart doesn't mean that this will not be broken. If a Central Bank wants to intervene in the fx market, or people start selling equities to raise cash, this will be reflected in the price action on the day in question.

 

[Tickdoc]

I often day trade and let it roll over if the original premise for the trade is still in place at the end of day and there is no big news or so on, with amended stops of course. As I spreadbet mostly I also have a relatively short-term trading strategy and often close profits (and losses!) on the same day. I suppose most of the moves I catch are intraday, but now and again I leave something open on a swing. It's just a mixed way of looking at it. Often when the trades run longer it is just a matter of letting winners run for as long as possible...

 

[alan5616]

I often day trade and let it roll over if the original premise for the trade is still in place at the end of day and there is no big news or so on, with amended stops of course. As I spreadbet mostly I also have a relatively short-term trading strategy and often close profits (and losses!) on the same day. I suppose most of the moves I catch are intraday, but now and again I leave something open on a swing. It's just a mixed way of looking at it. Often when the trades run longer it is just a matter of letting winners run for as long as possible...

I spread bet, as well, especially as some of the SB companies now have spreads that rival the specialist FX brokers.

I think personal experience prejudices our view. The two really big hits I've taken, in my trading career, were from holding long term positions. I'm going back a few years but, one was on a statement by Alan Greenspan, then chairman of the Fed (lost £10k + £15k accumulated profit!!) and the other on a NFP figure that was dire. These days I'm out of the market when important figures are due for release.

 

[DavieG]

all too frequently, after being in a trade for a week or more, the price came right back to where it was when I entered.

This is exactly the problem I am trying to battle with at the moment.

I look to trade longer term in search of the bigger moves. Truth is, my entry into trades is actually ok, my original stop losses I am happy with, (I am prepared to lose money). Once the market goes my way I will move the stop to break even, the market moves in my favour again and I think this is going my way, then in the next couple of days, the move slows, reverses and hit my break even stop. I need help in setting realistic price targets.

This is a reaccuring problem for me. Any advice would be appreciated.

I have a day job. Jobbing the markets daily would prove tricky.

 

[tony_snowball]

DavieG - have you thought about setting stop profits at predetermined levels and splitting your position so that you can run half and take half a profit at a target level?

Alternatively split possy in three - set longer term level for stop profit, run one third and ona shorter time frame take a third of profit when you move your stop up to break even level.

 

[alan5616]

This is exactly the problem I am trying to battle with at the moment.

I look to trade longer term in search of the bigger moves. Truth is, my entry into trades is actually ok, my original stop losses I am happy with, (I am prepared to lose money). Once the market goes my way I will move the stop to break even, the market moves in my favour again and I think this is going my way, then in the next couple of days, the move slows, reverses and hit my break even stop. I need help in setting realistic price targets.

This is a reaccuring problem for me. Any advice would be appreciated.

I have a day job. Jobbing the markets daily would prove tricky.

One common mistake that inexperienced traders make, when attempting to trade longer term, is to place a stop that is too close. The longer the tf, the wider the stop needs to be.

 

[Tickdoc]

After my fear-based exit of the original short I got back in short at 16240 and got out a hundred ticks down...What a week for my cable trading! Chuffed! Time to sit out of it and take stock...no pun intended!

We didn't break the recent low again so looks like some resistance there. Dollar being moved by some bizarre lone risk aversion it seems and there hasn't been any discussion yet about its possible "past-it" status as THE reserve currency at the G8...anyone trading this now?

 

[Tickdoc]

Thinking of a short around 16175...will wait for confirmation...ie, a drop back below the MA at the level on the hourly...

 

[bbmac]

gbpusd

0734 GMT [Dow Jones] The technical outlook for GBP/USD remains negative, says Commerzbank analyst Karen Jones. Looks for the move below channel support at 1.6240 to extend to the June low at 1.5800. Suggests selling rallies to 1.6220/50 and 1.6345, while maintaining a stop-loss at 1.6425. Looks to partially cover shorts at 1.5900, then the remainder at 1.5830. GBP/USD currently trades at 1.6130, from around 1.6128 in NY Tuesday. (KJE)

The above is just one of the generally £ negative commentaries circulating at the moment and repeated again this morning.

Rate broke below that previous 4hr swing hi=prev res=pot sbr zone that turned into a 1hr and 4hr previous swing lo zone=prev supp=potential supp having it's lower extreme around 6090, finding supporrt in early trading today at 6045 area for tech reasons I know not. The recovery off those lows has found resistance at a previous 1hr swing lo=prev supp=potential sbr zone with the confluence of the 23.6% 6426-6045 [6134] and 38.2% 6294-6045[6139.]

Some obvious 1hr support now in the 6060/40 area and below here look to the 4hr chart and the previous swing lo=prev supp=potential support zone 6023-5984 that is sandwiched by the 76.4% 5799-6745 @ 6023 and 61.8% 5507-6745 @ 5976. 38.2% 4389-6745 resides around 5840. Below here and there is a previous demand zone on both the 4hr and daily chart , the 4hr extending 5816-5755, with the 76.4% of the 5507-6745 in there at 5796.

23.6% 3639-6745 and 23.6% 3505-6745 reside above there at 6012 and 5973 respectively. The previous daily zone of demand/supply imbalance extends 5940-5795.

Potential resistance to the upside above the area discussed above is best viewed on the 1hr chart.

 

[DavieG]

tony_snowball

Thank you. I will experiment with both these ideas. I'll let you know how I fair.

alan5616

Thank you. I have started moving my stops to break even sooner as I can't bear to see profits turn into a loss. Although I seem to stare at them turn into nothing more than break even.

 

[meanreversion]

I'm developing a trailing stop algorithm based on volatility. I don't see many references to volatility on these boards (e.g. Bollinger bands) but they are integral to trading (in my opinion).

Depending on the force of the trend, I target either 2 to 3 times my initial stop (which is usually 1 ATR on the 4hr chart away, about 70-80 pips in cable right now). However, I can't stand to see profit turn to loss either, so I ratchet the stop to breakeven once spot has moved at least 2 ATR in my favour. This is 150 pips or so.. I've found that raising stop to breakeven too soon simply invites the position to be stopped before the move pans out the way you want it to.

 

[meanreversion]

I don't recommend scaling out of a position as it moves in your favour, this is the quickest way to minimise your profits, although I accept it is tempting. Logically, if you scale out when the position moves in your favour, wouldn't it make sense to scale out as it moves AGAINST you as well? But I don't know a single person who does this.

 

[Jason Rogers]

I don't recommend scaling out of a position as it moves in your favour, this is the quickest way to minimise your profits, although I accept it is tempting. Logically, if you scale out when the position moves in your favour, wouldn't it make sense to scale out as it moves AGAINST you as well? But I don't know a single person who does this.

This is one of the hardest things that I learned. Instead I'm starting to scale into positions as they move in my favor, using less leverage of course.