Brexit - in or out

[counter_violent]

"Why did Britain join? For various reasons. Because De Gaulle left, the Commonwealth could not compete, Heath defeated Wilson, the free trade area integration model sunk. But above all, Britain joined because joining the European project was perceived to be a way to stop its relative economic decline. In 1950, UK’s per capita GDP was almost a third larger than the EU6 average; in 1973, it was about 10% below; it has been comparatively stable ever since. On this basis, joining the EU worked – it helped to halt Britain’s relative economic decline vis-à-vis the EU6. "

The above are not my words, but it is common knowledge that the UK was in decline before she joined the EU. No one, reading the history, can doubt the facts. We were known as the sick man of Europe and, I remember well. we were in a mess.

That the EU has gone seriously off course is not disputed by me and requires serious reform, but UK has had a stable economy since she joined and, now, a few charlatans are trying to take her out. The Commonwealth wishes us well but, let us face it, the member states have gone their own way and made their own pacts since then.

Anyway, as I said earlier, those who want Brexit will not be convinced, no matter what is said in its favour

You can lead a horse to water, etc.

As far as migrants are concerned, whether we are in, or out, makes no difference. There are billions of foreigners out there seeking a better form of existence for their families. They will find other ways to enter. They are coming. Perhaps, you do not realise it in UK, but they are dying in their hundreds all the time in their desperation to get across the Med.

I dont know what the future holds for UK, but leaving the EU is not the solution to its present problems.

I think you will find that joining the EU was only part of the story. A far bigger impact was made by Thatcher with her reform agenda. If she hadn't had the balls to see it through and to embrace competition, then we could have ended up in a much darker place.
De-regulation and a message to the youthful entrepreneurs that they could succeed did more to change the culture of Britain than any other event.

Britain was known as the sick man of Europe.

Nowadays, Europe is the sick man of Europe.

They refuse to embrace competition.
They refuse to reform.
They refuse to de-regulate.
As a result, they are going nowhere.

 

[counter_violent]

I knew there was something else.

Europe is becoming less important to our trade. A very good reason why Europe needs us more than we need them.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...g-importance-to-UK-trade-in-three-charts.html

 

[Splitlink]

I knew there was something else.

Europe is becoming less important to our trade. A very good reason why Europe needs us more than we need them.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...g-importance-to-UK-trade-in-three-charts.html

you may be right. I'm staying here, though.

 

[Atilla]

You gave it all up a long time ago when we joined the EU so in reality you not giving anything up, you have nothing more to give. Take it back... Vote leave

Remind me please why we joined the EU again? :cheesy:

 

[Atilla]

I knew there was something else.

Europe is becoming less important to our trade. A very good reason why Europe needs us more than we need them.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...g-importance-to-UK-trade-in-three-charts.html

Dear all,

Anyone - can you come up with any feasible explanation for these 3 stats which aim to distort true perspective?

Apply simple rational with a pinch of logic. Don't accept what is presented as fact but challenge and question!!!

Damn statistics and lies.


1. Share of global GDP is falling.

Well ofcourse it would do. In the last 20 years emerging economies of Latin America, Africa, India and China has grown tremendously. In comparisons pretty much everybodies global GDP has fallen against the rise of the BRIC states.

However, since 1995 pretty much everybody's has grown in absolute terms. China, Brazil Russia and India stand out in % terms.

Be fair ref !!!


2. British dependency on EU trade is at record low.

Well ofcourse it would do if one is just looking at last 15 years as before BRIC countries have grown and EU has endured 9/11, Afghan and Iraq and now so called Arab Spring Rising coupled with Syrian drama. So on one hand there is the growing emerging market who pretty much all dislike US in some form or another and then there is the US strong ally EU suffering close to one of the most severe recessions since 1929 whilst BRIC countries doing well.

Remember, recessions and booms don't last forever. When emerging market go bust EU will be a safe haven with stable disposable incomes & expenditure against falling emerging markets. However, India's and China's stall likely to be equally short lived - 5 years or less.

Question is, we want to be in a place to trade with all of these trading blocks and markets. Why cut off your markets to spite ones self.


3. Possibly true for the same reason above re economic climate and development of BRICs and other emerging & developing countries. EU has massive disposable income. It would be absolutely foolish to turn our backs on a market just outside on our back yard.


So all three stats are cloaked in deception. Without looking at fundamentals beneath adn given the short time frame of 15 years - it's crafted to deceive in delivery.

Bad bad, very naughty journalist. Tell it like it is. Don't bleeding sexit up for the brexiters!!!


Yours truly,

 

[counter_violent]

Dear all,

Anyone - can you come up with any feasible explanation for these 3 stats which aim to distort true perspective?

Apply simple rational with a pinch of logic. Don't accept what is presented as fact but challenge and question!!!

Damn statistics and lies.

No, can you enlighten us ? Is there something wrong with these facts ?
Did the leave campaign commission this article ? Does anyone have the foggiest idea what you are talking about ?

The fact is, Europe, in terms of global trade is losing market share. Now can you hazard a guess as to why this is the case?

 

[darktrade]

Out may be the only rational decision. In means surrendering to a cult.

 

[forker]

"The Labour government intervened in the running of the economy to an unprecedented extent. It nationalised the coal mines, the railways, the inland waterways, gas and electricity, the airways, the Bank of England and the iron and steel industry. By the early 1950s, state owned industries employed over two million people"

Growth and living standards continued to rise. The thing is world was getting over war and everyone was building and recovering. The problem is due to the scale nationalisation and resulting unions, and legislation with high post debt payback (which prevented infrastructure development). Ultimately the UK lost its competitiveness. This is why things fell to crap because the government at the time tried to control everything.
Germany powered ahead and when the EU came into existence, the need for regulation seemed appropriate to make trade and business work in an efficient way. The problem is it isn't that efficient is it. When regulation started to make EU uncompetitive then they had to introduce protectionism as crazy as it is to somehow preserve business.
Now look at where the EU is. Again uncompetitive and as a result low growth and innovation and higher costs. Why does the EU slap foreign trade with all sorts of red tape - to protect its internal trade which is madness.

Labour got the UK into the mess in the first place through nationalisation and regulation. The EU is a good idea implemented completely wrong. They should have cut trade costs, introduced bodies that create standards(not restrictive regulation) and allow innovation to flourish.

I can see people's point on the status quo relative to the hardship post war. Those times were difficult but wrong decisions were made that led to the EU being the grass on the other side. All it did in reality was include the UK for regional benefit and not global.

 

[Atilla]

Hi Inquisitor,

I can see this is a deep and very meaningful post and I do not wish to sway your opinion in any way other than just attempt to explain some points as observations based on my experiences and studies.

The comments here are interesting on both sides but at the end of the day my decision will be based on what has happened and what I am seeing for my family, friends and myself and so this is what has happened so far.

1) I have seen an ongoing number of vastly rich people telling me that I should stay in the EU There are always losers and winners. Effectively a distribution of income is taking place with every second of economic activity.
2) I have seen my costs continuously rise and all my friends pay remain static over the last 10 years If the UK is to compete with competition then our costs must fall to maintain jobs whilst emerging market labour costs such as in China has been rising. This will continue.

Bringing in cheap migrant labour is a deliberate government policy to suppress wages.
3) A large number of people I know have lost their jobs over the last 20 years Well UK has an imbalanced economy with very poor level of manufacturing. Some people should look at the lack of investment and good management along with Thatchers policies. Instead of fixing she basically decimated it all. Arguable I agree but you should seriously consider what her grreatest fans now recommending with a pinch of salt imho. I studied her policies and they are a mess.

Blame unions for all of UK demise. Management always come out squeaky clean. Blame weeakest in society.
4) My pension has been continuously depleted by more and more taxesUK along with other advanced nations have declining birth rates. This is a serious problem. This is why good breeding migrants from friendly states are invited. In fact migrants and increase in demand and economic activity adds to GDP growth.

Otherwise with an aging population and looking after people who live so long in a decrepid vegetative state is not possible.

British and other mass public simply do not understand this. Biddies complain about bleeding foreigners and then expect top draw performance in care.


5) My children are unable to get on the housing ladder and so when the head of the IMF says house prices will collapse then it is a good reason to leave.
There are plenty of cheap housing in the UK. It depends on location. Where the foreigners and work are is where the expensive properties are. So housing and cost of housing is not necessarily the problem. It is one of green belt and planning rules implemented by UK government after the war that maintains land prices at unaffordable rates. Planning laws are a night mare too.

Europe does not have this problem. We fell off our chair when Gary showed us a **** hole in Harlow a one bed flat and compared it to a Chateur in France for the same price. Why do you think that is?

6) My ability to see my GP and get quick treatment on the NHS has disappeared over the last 20 years
Aging population living longer.

7) I have seen in the last 10 years more rights removed by the EU than added and this is all a precursor the implementing the TTIP and making the EU a place for the rich to get ever more rich and a place where all that matters is big business.Don't think so. It's just business as it has always been. The same people supporting Brexit here was arguing against me about having a fairer distribution of income and would defend fat cat pays 1000x those of lower paid workers.

This average is about 150x in the EU. UK income distribution is severely skewed in favour of fat cats and management who do very little.

None of the above is positive and could not have been worse outside the EU and yet I have been told by the rich people that I am better off (which is a joke) and it is better for me to hand over democratic control of my country to unelected people in a foreign country who are not accountable to anyone.

The idea that I am better off economically in the EU is utter nonsense for the reasons listed above. The reality is that the EU is Germany and in the event that the German economy falters the whole of the EU will be in a disastrous situation. If we stay in we will be expected to bail out the others at staggering costs to all of us and where will the faltering nations head to when it all happens? Here of course just as the Turks are planning on doing when their visa free travel comes in which again is a German way of getting them into the EU through the back door even though "technically" they are still at war with Greece over Cyprus.

As things stand, the UK would have to build a new house every 7 minutes to cater for the existing population and is something the government has admitted defeat on being able to action. If we get even more people arriving here it will ramp house prices and rents up even more which is the exact opposite of what I want for my children and their whole generation.

Professional bodies expect a negative impact on House buidling in the UK in the event of a Brexit. Life is not simple as stopping immigration and they'll continue building more houses which will become available to you at lower prices. I'm afaid life is not that simple. You will see an opposite effect.

Sterling will drop.
Imports will drop.
Exports should rise with a time lag.
Food and fuel will rise.
UK runs a negative current account Balance of Payments
Wages will rise for builders.
Interest rates may have to rise to protect the pound
Effectively devaluing sterling will raise inflation
Rise in unemployment will put further pressure on wages

I am not B****ting you. Any economists can validate this.

They'll tell you yes but our exports will become more competitive and will sell more. Maybe and maybe not. There is a time lag involved. During that time there will be much pain. The end result is not conclusive.

The Brexiters have vested interests too like Boris wanting to be PM so beware.

When idiots like Major, Blair, Cameron start lecturing me with ludicrous threats of what will happen if we leave it further increases my resolve to get out and is also doing the same to most of my associates. I don’t hear every day people who are not rich trying in desperation to threaten me with why I have to vote to stay in.
Most people don't understand the issues.
I don’t doubt that there will be uncertainty if we leave but so what that is not a reason to stay. What is certain is that staying in will see changes of biblical proportions to our sovereign nation that we have no ability to control. The UK has been a pioneer in almost every area of its involvement with the world and will continue to do so outside the EU. We have the most innovative nation to address world issues and will continue to so do. It is almost insulting to presume that we are not capable of doing this outside the EU and the same economists who said we cannot survive by keeping the GBP are the same ones saying we cannot survive outside the EU. They were wrong then and it is well known that economists and so called experts are more often wrong than right. This is why we should take no notice of any of them as they just don’t know what will happen but I have faith that the UK are capable of addressing most issues even when told by others that we face disaster. We did it twice during the last two wars and we can continue to do it again.

UK lost both WWars. It was the down fall of the empire. Rise of the US and fall of the UK were one and the same.
Some of the views that Scotland will go for independence again if we leave are seriously flawed. The Scots would have to reapply to join the EU if they leave the UK and have to show fiscal responsibility over an extended timeframe to be allowed in. So far they have been totally incapable of doing this and that is with the fortune they already get from the rest of the UK. If that is gone they have no chance at all of meeting this (since the Greece crisis) now crucial requirement. If they were admitted they would be in the same position as Latvia with no influence to do anything.

The message is simple, ignore the rich doomsayers and don’t underestimate the extraordinary ability of the British to take on and handle pretty much anything that comes our way.

Yes I'm sure UK will continue to exist but at what level. We are on par with Germany and France right now so I don't understand this doomsayers business.

UK is doing really well along with Germany. I may consider what you say as a plausible offering if we were in the **** like the PIGS but we are not. So this rocking the boat business based on one trick ponies who other than stop the migrants coming in have nothing else to offer.

Regulation and new trades they are selling you is utter rubbish. They are selling a simple story the average layman can understand.

Crafted for the simple man. I may be saying the wrong things but I'm not interested in pleasing people. Tell it as it is. They are lying to you in those videos.


It's the wind and the tree story.

1. Some used to say there is wind because trees sway left to right and create wind.

2. Some learnt trees sway blown by the wind.

3. Truth of the matter is a lot more complex.
The sun heats up an area, causing hot air to rise and cold air to flow in, filling the void left below. This process is called wind


Personally, 1 makes most sense to me because on a hot day I can keep my self cool by wafting a Chinese fan about my face. So from experience I know 2 and 3 may sound plausible and complex but not likely to be true, I'll stick to what I know with option 1.


Either way all the best

 

[Atilla]

No, can you enlighten us ? Is there something wrong with these facts ?
Did the leave campaign commission this article ? Does anyone have the foggiest idea what you are talking about ?

The fact is, Europe, in terms of global trade is losing market share. Now can you hazard a guess as to why this is the case?

Fact is statistically, when you bring in BRIC countries into equation every country including US is losing global share.

You capiche

 

[Atilla]

"The Labour government intervened in the running of the economy to an unprecedented extent. It nationalised the coal mines, the railways, the inland waterways, gas and electricity, the airways, the Bank of England and the iron and steel industry. By the early 1950s, state owned industries employed over two million people"

Growth and living standards continued to rise. The thing is world was getting over war and everyone was building and recovering. The problem is due to the scale nationalisation and resulting unions, and legislation with high post debt payback (which prevented infrastructure development). Ultimately the UK lost its competitiveness. This is why things fell to crap because the government at the time tried to control everything.
Germany powered ahead and when the EU came into existence, the need for regulation seemed appropriate to make trade and business work in an efficient way. The problem is it isn't that efficient is it. When regulation started to make EU uncompetitive then they had to introduce protectionism as crazy as it is to somehow preserve business.
Now look at where the EU is. Again uncompetitive and as a result low growth and innovation and higher costs. Why does the EU slap foreign trade with all sorts of red tape - to protect its internal trade which is madness.

Labour got the UK into the mess in the first place through nationalisation and regulation. The EU is a good idea implemented completely wrong. They should have cut trade costs, introduced bodies that create standards(not restrictive regulation) and allow innovation to flourish.

I can see people's point on the status quo relative to the hardship post war. Those times were difficult but wrong decisions were made that led to the EU being the grass on the other side. All it did in reality was include the UK for regional benefit and not global.

To make it clear for people like me, which regulations can we scrap?

What or where or with whom are the trade deals that are much talked about that we can't enter now? Assuming we don't already trade with these parties.

Burberry's expecting China to revert back to growth in a couple of years and are hoping to increase their market share and margins on hand bags and other luxury goods.

Where are these new markets?

 

[counter_violent]

Fact is statistically, when you bring in BRIC countries into equation every country including US is losing global share.

You capiche

Regardless of every country losing market share to the BRIC's, EU is losing more than anyone else and it is a trend, not an anomaly.

Now if you would like to answer the question !

 

[Atilla]

Regardless of every country losing market share to the BRIC's, EU is losing more than anyone else and it is a trend, not an anomaly.

Where does it say more than anyone else???

Now if you would like to answer the question !

Now read carefully some facts from your very link.

The EU was formed in 1993, and since then has become the world's largest individual economy, if you combine the GDP of its members. Taken from your article.




The ONS said: "This is because growth in non-EU economies has outpaced growth of EU economies, mainly driven by strong growth in the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) economies."

But China is on track to become number one in nominal GDP terms, and may be there already on a purchasing power parity basis.

As a result, the proportion of UK exports destined for the EU has dropped from 54.8pc in 1999 to 44.6pc in 2014.

Are you seriously prepared to turn your back on 44% of UK's trade to an established market place that is even bigger than USAs????


So EU along with the rest of the world enters a recession and you try and make capital out of remarkable numbers as if it's bad. Please please apply some common sense and decent scrutiny.


Please read article again with a new perspective instead of trying to abstract something to fit your argument.


Martin Beck, an economist at Oxford Economics, said: "The latest trade data showed a further decline in the EU's importance as a market for UK exports.


But he also said.
"The EU remains by far the UK's single most important export market," said Mr Beck. However, he added that "a consistent drop in the importance of the continental market should embolden David Cameron's hand in renegotiating the UK's membership".


Are you reading these carefully. You are extracting what suits you argument and totally blanking anything else.

You are not looking at the numbers and asking why? It's all there.

You are being led like a bull with a ring round it's nose. The journalist is doing the leading by making his points in big bold writing.

Eyes and ears reads the letters but brains not freaking processing any comprehension.


You are now making up stories.

Please show where in the blurb it says EU is losing more than anyone else???

 

[counter_violent]

Now read carefully some facts from your very link.

The EU was formed in 1993, and since then has become the world's largest individual economy, if you combine the GDP of its members. Taken from your article.




The ONS said: "This is because growth in non-EU economies has outpaced growth of EU economies, mainly driven by strong growth in the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) economies."

But China is on track to become number one in nominal GDP terms, and may be there already on a purchasing power parity basis.

As a result, the proportion of UK exports destined for the EU has dropped from 54.8pc in 1999 to 44.6pc in 2014.

Are you seriously prepared to turn your back on 44% of UK's trade to an established market place that is even bigger than USAs????


So EU along with the rest of the world enters a recession and you try and make capital out of remarkable numbers as if it's bad. Please please apply some common sense and decent scrutiny.


Please read article again with a new perspective instead of trying to abstract something to fit your argument.


Martin Beck, an economist at Oxford Economics, said: "The latest trade data showed a further decline in the EU's importance as a market for UK exports.


But he also said.
"The EU remains by far the UK's single most important export market," said Mr Beck. However, he added that "a consistent drop in the importance of the continental market should embolden David Cameron's hand in renegotiating the UK's membership".


Are you reading these carefully. You are extracting what suits you argument and totally blanking anything else.

You are not looking at the numbers and asking why? It's all there.

You are being led like a bull with a ring round it's nose. The journalist is doing the leading by making his points in big bold writing.

Eyes and ears reads the letters but brains not freaking processing any comprehension.


You are now making up stories.

Please show where in the blurb it says EU is losing more than anyone else???

You can work it out if you look at the charts and ongoing trend.

It's also worth noting that those figures refer to 2014.
In 2016 the figure is down to 40%
Go figure.

 

[counter_violent]

Just watched an interesting programme hosted by Paxman.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b07c6n58/paxman-in-brussels-who-really-rules-us

 

[counter_violent]

This non story put out at 1am

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36338220

Honestly, I could write the script !

....errr, yeah us celebs are dead successful like...cos we're part of the EU, top of our game and sought after the world over cos of our talent....and it's ALL cos we're part of the EU

What a bunch of tripe....if voters are falling for this, they need their heads examined. It's totally embarrassing that remain feels the need to get a bunch of minor celebs to endorse their campaign.

 

[Atilla]

This non story put out at 1am

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36338220

Honestly, I could write the script !

....errr, yeah us celebs are dead successful like...cos we're part of the EU, top of our game and sought after the world over cos of our talent....and it's ALL cos we're part of the EU

What a bunch of tripe....if voters are falling for this, they need their heads examined. It's totally embarrassing that remain feels the need to get a bunch of minor celebs to endorse their campaign.

Let's do a roll call...

1. US, Chinese and Indian premiers state publicly they prefer us to be in the EU and not to leave. This is the top level.

2. Good many business leaders as well as City of London institutions state publicly they prefer to be in the EU

3. Key politicians currently in and as well as likes of established ones like Heseltine, Clarke and Sir Geoffrey Howe, state it is in the countries best interest to stay in the EU

4. Opposition parties Labour and Liberal state our interests lie in the EU

5. Scientists say the same

6. Global celebrities and actors say the same

7. Building industry professionals state the same

8. BoE advises of potential risks of leaving

9. Good number of professional bodies such as IMF & BoE and UK Chamber of Commerce - the majority would like to stay in


Then on the other hand we have;

1. Wannabee politicians like Boris (not fit for PM) running effectively for PM role doing a U-Turn on his past beliefs.

2. Some one-trick pony opposition leader, leading the charge

3. Some businesses who may have more to gain from leaving the EU.

4. I heard this morning few housewives questioned who simply said we don't want to be in the EU. Period. No arguments she simply doesn't want it.



For what ever argument is put forward we have;

Those in favour are fear mongering doom sayers.
We are British.
We will cut regulation and we can make more and better trade deals else where
Once we leave EU everything will be the same for another 2 years and so much better soon after...


Waddaya guys fink of this summari den????


Either way chaps, wishing you all the best

 

[Sonicscooter]

Morning Atilla, just a slight change in points.........no matter in or out, the whole subject has become very sad and somewhat creepy, when a population really needs hard facts, the whole episode is swamped with what Obama or some celebrity thinks, it's become a circus, it has rapidly gone down to the lowest possible level.

The whole political system is a sick joke, as for politicians themselves, well they are as usual just out for what they can get, i haven't voted Conservative for a number of years, but as of this fiasco i will never vote for them again.

Regards old chap, Shane.....

 

[forker]

To make it clear for people like me, which regulations can we scrap?

What or where or with whom are the trade deals that are much talked about that we can't enter now? Assuming we don't already trade with these parties.

Burberry's expecting China to revert back to growth in a couple of years and are hoping to increase their market share and margins on hand bags and other luxury goods.

Where are these new markets?

Well without diving into all areas how about the 12000+ applied to milk

 

[forker]

http://www.theguardian.com/commenti...nswer-to-dying-eurozone-eu-undemocratic-elite