Brexit and the Consequences

[tar]

Posen born in 1966 and raised in the US.

What exactly is his experience of 1970's Britain That's right.....zero !

And what of his qualifications.....oh he went to Harvard and read a few books....well whoop de diddley do.

Another useless expert best ignored !

Sat on the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee from 2009 to 2012 .

 

[counter_violent]

Sat on the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee from 2009 to 2012 .

I rest my case m'lod.

President of PIIE
He certainly has a sense of humour.

PIE in the sky economics.

 

[tomorton]

Okay, I give in. I hereby formally tender my scalp to the remain camp!

I voted Leave and now I regret it: I made a mistake. Not because I 'didn't think it through' or because I'm racist or xenophobic - or for any other of the false accusations made against us Brexiteers. No, the reason is that I just can't live with the thought that the woman I went on marches as a student to protest against, and whose policies I loathed then and loathe now, appears to have been bang on the money regarding this issue. I was all for the EU back then and didn't understand Maggie's opposition to it. Now I have the prospect of having to re-evaluate everything else she said and consider the previously unthinkable possibility that she might have been right on other issues too. And that prospect is just too ghastly to contemplate. I can't do it. I realise this is a case of closing the stable door after the horse has bolted but, even so, for this reason and this reason alone, the only solution to my conundrum is to switch my allegiance to the Remain camp.

Tim! Good grief!

But also, there is now no Remain camp. The French police moved in with bulldozers and broke it all up.

Boris Johnson's alright though - as an unaccompanied idiot he's been offered asylum.

 

[Atilla]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...pain-adam-posen-bank-of-england-a7384336.html

Brexit will 'take Britain back to the 1970s', says former Bank of England expert

Mr Posen said Britain faces stagflation, a situation of stagnant economic growth with rapidly rising prices faced in the late 1970s. The spiral of increasing prices reduced the value of people’s wages

Very true and as a non qualified economist I agree.

This is a must watch clip imo. Especially towards the end when there is great clarity with no waffle where Adam Posen the former BoE Policy Maker states his clear opinion.

Must watch - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ed-by-fear-of-the-future-shrugs-off-good-news

 

[Atilla]

Here is a gem from Posen in 2007

https://piie.com/commentary/op-eds/dont-worry-about-us-mortgages

Few financial developments have the drama of property busts. Accordingly, a great deal of attention is being paid lately to developments in the US real estate market and to the seemingly dangerous fate of residential mortgages there following the recent housing boom. While understandable, this attention is misplaced. Problems in either the so-called sub-prime mortgage market (of loans to borrowers with poor credit histories or limited assets) or the US real estate market more broadly are not going to have a major impact on the US economic outlook.

Similar stuff can be said about Nigel Lawson and Boris Johnson :idea:

 

[counter_violent]

Very true and as a non qualified economist I agree.

This is a must watch clip imo. Especially towards the end when there is great clarity with no waffle where Adam Posen the former BoE Policy Maker states his clear opinion.

Must watch - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ed-by-fear-of-the-future-shrugs-off-good-news

Notice how Posen doesn't expand on the rise of anti establishment sentiment across the EU and why it will ensure the EU's collapse.

He wouldn't like to be interviewed by me, that's for sure. I'd tie him in knots !

 

[Atilla]

Notice how Posen doesn't expand on the rise of anti establishment sentiment across the EU and why it will ensure the EU's collapse.

He wouldn't like to be interviewed by me, that's for sure. I'd tie him in knots !

He did acknowledge should the EU fail then that would be a positive for the UK !

 

[forker]

He did acknowledge should the EU fail then that would be a positive for the UK !

If the eu fails its probably going to be chaos.

 

[Oscar Reed]

Notice how Posen doesn't expand on the rise of anti establishment sentiment across the EU and why it will ensure the EU's collapse.

He wouldn't like to be interviewed by me, that's for sure. I'd tie him in knots !

Did you catch Boris at the game on Saturday or was that you.

http://www.manchestereveningnews.co...s-johnson-lookalike-rochdale-steward-12100504

 

[counter_violent]

If the eu fails its probably going to be chaos.

If Trump gets in, it's game set and match

 

[mike.]

If the eu fails its probably going to be chaos.

But at least their accounts will be in order.....Ohh, hang on.....:whistling


https://fullfact.org/europe/did-auditors-sign-eu-budget/

 

[counter_violent]

But at least their accounts will be in order.....Ohh, hang on.....:whistling


https://fullfact.org/europe/did-auditors-sign-eu-budget/

Absolutely brilliant :clap:

Here's what the court says.

The Court explains:

“Our estimate of the level of error is not a measure of fraud, inefficiency or waste. It is an estimate of the money that should not have been paid out because it was not used in accordance with the applicable rules and regulations.”

The most common type of error is when people claim for costs they’re ineligible for, followed by procurement errors like the one discussed above.


I think that's fraud then

 

[Atilla]

If international banks start switching reserves out of sterling into others, this will have further impact on Sterling, compounding UK Brexit issues.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-sterling-reserves-idUKKBN12W4LN

All very risky and precarious waiting for EU to fail so we can sort our selves out.


RATINGS WARNING

Bank of England data this week showed that foreign investors bought a net 13.27 billion pounds of UK government bonds in September, the most in almost a year.

But that was before UK Prime Minister Theresa May's speech at her Conservative Party's annual conference in early October, which investors interpreted as a sign that a 'hard Brexit" of prioritising immigration control over economic concerns was much more likely than not.

The pound slumped to a 31-year low against the dollar and a near-record low on a trade-weighted basis. Crucially, the latest slide has been accompanied by a selloff in gilts, breaking a link that had held firm for the past year.

This shows that investors are now turning their back on sterling and UK bonds, a potential nightmare scenario for UK policymakers if it persists.

For a country that relies on "the kindness of strangers", in the words of BoE governor Mark Carney, to balance its books, even the hint that capital inflows might dry up could have serious consequences.

S&P's fellow rating agency Moody's has also said downward pressure on sterling from "substantial and persistent" capital outflows would raise fundamental doubts about its reserve currency status and could lead to a UK sovereign credit downgrade.

Perhaps counter-intuitively, central banks often increase purchases of a particular currency when it declines in value. This is because they may have longer-term investment horizons and so ignore shorter-term fluctuations, they need to maintain FX reserves in line with broader trade flows, or they wish to keep the composition of their reserves stable.

Central banks aren't spooked into action by daily, weekly or even monthly exchange rate fluctuations. But they can gradually tweak their portfolios via passive management.

This could mean buying less of a certain currency over time, or the same nominal amounts but less as an overall share of reserves.

"I don't think too many central banks will be rushing out to buy sterling now because they think it's cheap," Setser at the CFR said.

 

[forker]

protectionism at it's best. So instead of having firms decide for themselves the EU has decided it wants to pass law that limits EU clearing outside the EU and thereby forcing the clearing business to move from the UK.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...-clearing-london-stock-exchange-a7394341.html

i say we should pass a few laws of our own. in any case the media flaunts it as being 440BLN worth but ultimately that only represents about 700 jobs and total revenue for these firms being about 200 million of which a small portion goes to the government.

 

[forker]

i see uk loses vote on article 50

 

[tar]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...ead-of-brexit-high-court-verdict-and-bank-of/

Pound spikes above $1.24 after High Court rules government cannot trigger Article 50 without parliamentary approval

 

[tomorton]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...ead-of-brexit-high-court-verdict-and-bank-of/

Pound spikes above $1.24 after High Court rules government cannot trigger Article 50 without parliamentary approval

Maybe the government had not abided by its legal duties in ruling out Parliamentary approval - though that would be surprising - but bringing this case is no way to prepare for tough negotiations with the EU.

 

[Atilla]

protectionism at it's best. So instead of having firms decide for themselves the EU has decided it wants to pass law that limits EU clearing outside the EU and thereby forcing the clearing business to move from the UK.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...-clearing-london-stock-exchange-a7394341.html

i say we should pass a few laws of our own. in any case the media flaunts it as being 440BLN worth but ultimately that only represents about 700 jobs and total revenue for these firms being about 200 million of which a small portion goes to the government.

This is no surprise and quite expected.

Said it all along and the same will follow with Airbus industries soon enough and others.

Nissan has partnership with Renault and obviously France will carry favour in new location deals. Words have been spoken and announced but no netotiations or agreements have been entered into.

We are in competitive mode now. No cooperation so to expect deals is just silly. Brexiters have had their moment in the lime light. Nothing has started yet. All we've had is give aways from the BoE and Fed and cheap oil.

Shed storm heading our way for sure. I do hope Parliament stops the hooligans in their tracks. Our hope lies with the Chancellor, Liberals and back bencher Tories and Parliament. Labour may get a look in if they get their finger out.

 

[forker]

Court ruling today was an easy 50 pips. Hope you all took advantage of the situation.

 

[tar]

That changes everything re the pound. ..