Brexit and the Consequences

[Atilla]

It’s academic for the EU what deal the UK decides anyway. The collapse is already underway, everything the EU does from this point forward is either trying to accelerate their already plans, put a veneer on it all or just save what it can.

Although a fair amount will depend on the US, UK, French, Mid East coalition, the EU project has been derailed and they only have themselves to blame for that, socialism just can’t work long term.

UK departure does not signal EU collapse imo.

It will simply strengthen core members. fwiw they are playing a far superior game with boots in each camp.

France is taking over UK role cosying up to US in terms of special relationship whilst Germany is in bed with Russia. Link up with China and the new silk road all under way. EU is aloof from all the mess in the ME as well whilst standing to benefit should Syria fall and gas and oil pipelines make their way through one way or another.

EU is not a socialist regime. It is a mixed economy and still remains Worlds largest trading continent by GDP.

As for the petty countries like Hungary or Poland they are hardly likely to make a dent in the EU. As before much like UK they'll separate wheat from chaff.

Time will tell. :whistling

 

[timsk]

UK departure does not signal EU collapse imo. . .

Atilla,
Regardless of whether we're in or out of the EU - it'll collapse anyway. Our departure probably just speeds up its inevitable demise. You know as well as anyone that all Ponzi schemes collapse sooner or later. Therefore, it's a 100% certainty that the EU will do just that - it's simply a question of time.

Everyone knows that markets move in cycles and that economic boom is followed by bust. One day, one or more of the governments that are net contributors to the EU (regardless of political hue) will be in a position when it can't (or its people won't allow it) continue to shovel money down a bottomless pit. The'll call a halt to it. Then the EU will run out of money and, when that happens, it won't be able to prop up its net beneficiaries. And like all Ponzi schemes that can't pay out and can't attract new money in - it will collapse. No 'ifs' or 'buts' about it - it will definitely happen.
Tim.

 

[barjon]

Atilla,
Regardless of whether we're in or out of the EU - it'll collapse anyway. Our departure probably just speeds up its inevitable demise. You know as well as anyone that all Ponzi schemes collapse sooner or later. Therefore, it's a 100% certainty that the EU will do just that - it's simply a question of time.

Everyone knows that markets move in cycles and that economic boom is followed by bust. One day, one or more of the governments that are net contributors to the EU (regardless of political hue) will be in a position when it can't (or its people won't allow it) continue to shovel money down a bottomless pit. The'll call a halt to it. Then the EU will run out of money and, when that happens, it won't be able to prop up its net beneficiaries. And like all Ponzi schemes that can't pay out and can't attract new money in - it will collapse. No 'ifs' or 'buts' about it - it will definitely happen.
Tim.

Whilst the main players, particularly Germany, gain such an advantage by having an artificially low currency because of the euro (imagine what the Deutschmark/Drachma exchange rate would be - certainly not parity as the euro makes it, or the DM/USD rate) being net contributors doesn’t hurt too much.

How you can equate the EU to a Ponzi scheme is beyond me. Nor how you can so certain that it will collapse. On the contrary I see little to stop it going from strength to strength. Certainly, economic growth in the EU is outstripping most at the moment and is much better than here at home.

Mind you, I suppose you have to be a doomsayer to justify taking us out. I suspect your great grandchildren will curse the day

 

[Splitlink]

No, they are not Doomsdayers, Jon. They have been sucked in by one, or two, who want to be at the top of the heap. Being out of EU is in the interests of those few. Isn't that always the case?

 

[Atilla]

Atilla,
Regardless of whether we're in or out of the EU - it'll collapse anyway. Our departure probably just speeds up its inevitable demise. You know as well as anyone that all Ponzi schemes collapse sooner or later. Therefore, it's a 100% certainty that the EU will do just that - it's simply a question of time.

Everyone knows that markets move in cycles and that economic boom is followed by bust. One day, one or more of the governments that are net contributors to the EU (regardless of political hue) will be in a position when it can't (or its people won't allow it) continue to shovel money down a bottomless pit. The'll call a halt to it. Then the EU will run out of money and, when that happens, it won't be able to prop up its net beneficiaries. And like all Ponzi schemes that can't pay out and can't attract new money in - it will collapse. No 'ifs' or 'buts' about it - it will definitely happen.
Tim.

Your email is full of false assertions.

This is similar to that other false assertion, EU is in decline, contrary to additional members and even more wanting to join. As Barjon points out economies recovering. Unlike US and UK speed of recovery is not as fast or the recessions as deep. Points to better consistency and stability smoothing out the peaks and the troughs imo.

PIGS ran out of money where are they now? UK / US deficit hardly exemplary but no bother there.

As often it is pointed out that when people vote to leave, re-votes are held until the right decision is reached. On the contrary when people look at the alternative option on the table they have a re-think and say I think we may have got this wrong?

Anyhow, coming back to Brexiteers arguments, this is just so TOTALLY wrong. Brexit argument should be based on what will benefit UK. Our USP that is. What are we selling again? Let's establish that.

Whether we are in or out EU disintegration is neither here or there. In fact as we are out of single currency, I would expect UK to benefit in many ways if we were in.

Moving on - we have falling police, teacher and NHS personnel numbers. Public transport and railway system that is inefficient, over priced and lagging in technology. World leading institutions leaving to setup HQs in a disintegrating EU. Brain drain that's thinking about departure already. Applications for EU citizenship from UK increasing.

There was a lot of talk about elections in France, Germany, Italy, Austria and Holland about the far right on the march to take back sovereignty and all that. How has that worked out for all you excitedly hopping mad hatters? Where is Farage or the UKIP now? Reason why he couldn't establish continuity as we have all seen is UKIP make up not one of sound reason or rational but mad hatters when one looks below the surface all full of unruly wannabee somethings.


Contrary to all evidence you point out "EU disintegration will definitely happen"!


G1 matey. I hope it works out for you. I really do

 

[tomorton]

There's no way the EU will collapse, at least in the political sense of a united Europe. Some temporary crisis banking arrangements might be necessary for some members, possibly a client "associate" membership, possibly even a subsidiary "Southern EU" until they're back on their feet.

But as the EU is a political process, not a trading destination, nothing will derail it. The rationale is that the damn thing was actually born out of a world war. If a world war started the process, even another world war (spare the thought!) would do nothing more than underline how right the EU founders were when they started down this road and how vital it is for the survivors to achieve political unity.

Even if the EU went bankrupt, we could see very quickly some pairs and groupings of countries undergoing their own political unity as a recovery plan and within 10 years a new EU initiative. With a third world war to back them up, this would be even more potent than the current misguided shower.

Actually, if WW3 triggered in Europe, primarily between continental powers, maybe the USofE people would be proven right and all us nationalist patriots will be shown to be dangerously naive idiots?..................

 

[Signalcalc]

UK departure does not signal EU collapse imo.

I never said it did! The EU seems to be managing to do that on it's own, Brexit may have inspired others to accelerate whatever plans they may have already had, but as recent events across Europe have shown, they really haven't needed much help to get their opposition organised and into action.

It will simply strengthen core members. fwiw they are playing a far superior game with boots in each camp.

I agree, there will always be a hardcore socialist membership working for benefit of themselves.

EU is not a socialist regime. It is a mixed economy and still remains Worlds largest trading continent by GDP.

So what ideology are you ascribing to the EU? I quite like the sound of 'mixed economy', I doubt if that term has a recognised definition though, maybe you are the first person to introduce this wonderful ideology to the world

As for the petty countries like Hungary or Poland they are hardly likely to make a dent in the EU. As before much like UK they'll separate wheat from chaff.

Then the EU won't miss their membership, just as it is not going to miss ours :cheesy:

 

[Atilla]

I never said it did! The EU seems to be managing to do that on it's own, Brexit may have inspired others to accelerate whatever plans they may have already had, but as recent events across Europe have shown, they really haven't needed much help to get their opposition organised and into action.

So when you say decline is already underway what do you base that on? Which events?

I agree, there will always be a hardcore socialist membership working for benefit of themselves.

Do we still have hardcore socialists? News to me


So what ideology are you ascribing to the EU? I quite like the sound of 'mixed economy', I doubt if that term has a recognised definition though, maybe you are the first person to introduce this wonderful ideology to the world

Wish it was mine but it is not. Predominantly what we have in the West. Read about it all back in the 80s so not new and well known reference. Command based communism is at one extreme end - and then a total liberal free market on the other. Neither really exist and most countries have a mix of state sponsored services as well as free market with various emphasise on one side or the other. Thus all economies are now largely mixed.


Then the EU won't miss their membership, just as it is not going to miss ours :cheesy:

I reckon EU will miss UK as we'll miss their cooperative partnership and many advantages it gave the UK. UK leads in good standards and institutions that are world leading. That's why EMA and EBA were based in UK. Also, scientific research R&D. UK and US represents vast bulk of research all produced in the English language and thus makes good sense.


Said this before, we will be moving from cooperative unified team work to competitive and at times combative footing with the EU on various disagreements and disputes as issues arise in the future. They will not have our guidance and we will not have their cooperation. Compared to savings, losses will be greater imo.

Let's hope we can build the Commonwealth up to match and rival the EU. That is the dream and only course open to UK if and when Brexit is written into history.

 

[Signalcalc]

Your email is full of false assertions.

This is similar to that other false assertion, EU is in decline, contrary to additional members and even more wanting to join. As Barjon points out economies recovering. Unlike US and UK speed of recovery is not as fast or the recessions as deep. Points to better consistency and stability smoothing out the peaks and the troughs imo.

PIGS ran out of money where are they now? UK / US deficit hardly exemplary but no bother there.

As often it is pointed out that when people vote to leave, re-votes are held until the right decision is reached. On the contrary when people look at the alternative option on the table they have a re-think and say I think we may have got this wrong?

Anyhow, coming back to Brexiteers arguments, this is just so TOTALLY wrong. Brexit argument should be based on what will benefit UK. Our USP that is. What are we selling again? Let's establish that.

Whether we are in or out EU disintegration is neither here or there. In fact as we are out of single currency, I would expect UK to benefit in many ways if we were in.

Moving on - we have falling police, teacher and NHS personnel numbers. Public transport and railway system that is inefficient, over priced and lagging in technology. World leading institutions leaving to setup HQs in a disintegrating EU. Brain drain that's thinking about departure already. Applications for EU citizenship from UK increasing.

There was a lot of talk about elections in France, Germany, Italy, Austria and Holland about the far right on the march to take back sovereignty and all that. How has that worked out for all you excitedly hopping mad hatters? Where is Farage or the UKIP now? Reason why he couldn't establish continuity as we have all seen is UKIP make up not one of sound reason or rational but mad hatters when one looks below the surface all full of unruly wannabee somethings.


Contrary to all evidence you point out "EU disintegration will definitely happen"!


G1 matey. I hope it works out for you. I really do

Another view would say that the EU project has already failed. None of them banked on a Brexit, or any other meaningful opposition, so the EU has failed already in keeping a cohesive membership and reducing opposition in member states.

The Utopia that was to be, post-WW2, never really got going. I'm not sure that peace in Europe was it's major aim either, I would argue that the powers following WW2 were as clueless then, as they are now, and that the route they took was a reaction to the situation rather than a long-term plan for the future. The long term plan evolved out of a long held desire for a socialist Europe, which was voiced a long time before WW2.

However, world events have overtaken the original EU thinking and all the EU has done is to react with continued cluelessness and lack of vision and we are where we are now (this is mostly from a social cohesion POV).

What you see the EU doing now is upping the rhetoric, increasing the pace of military integration and other plans they had ready to launch on EU member states before Brexit occurred, they are forewarning of the costs which have reached astronomical levels. I don't believe anyone has yet explained the real reasons behind the mass migration programme that continues and has made a major contribution to rising dissatisfaction.

So I would argue that the EU project has already failed, what you are seeing now is a reaction to failure, progressing just as it did post-WW2, with no long term vision that has been communicated to member states or the populace.

Unless anyone can tell me the ideals the EU has/had communicated to us for the next 5, 10, 20, 50, 100 years in a meaningful and transparent form?

 

[barjon]

Another view would say that the EU project has already failed. None of them banked on a Brexit, or any other meaningful opposition, so the EU has failed already in keeping a cohesive membership and reducing opposition in member states.

The Utopia that was to be, post-WW2, never really got going. I'm not sure that peace in Europe was it's major aim either, I would argue that the powers following WW2 were as clueless then, as they are now, and that the route they took was a reaction to the situation rather than a long-term plan for the future. The long term plan evolved out of a long held desire for a socialist Europe, which was voiced a long time before WW2.

However, world events have overtaken the original EU thinking and all the EU has done is to react with continued cluelessness and lack of vision and we are where we are now (this is mostly from a social cohesion POV).

What you see the EU doing now is upping the rhetoric, increasing the pace of military integration and other plans they had ready to launch on EU member states before Brexit occurred, they are forewarning of the costs which have reached astronomical levels. I don't believe anyone has yet explained the real reasons behind the mass migration programme that continues and has made a major contribution to rising dissatisfaction.

So I would argue that the EU project has already failed, what you are seeing now is a reaction to failure, progressing just as it did post-WW2, with no long term vision that has been communicated to member states or the populace.

Unless anyone can tell me the ideals the EU has/had communicated to us for the next 5, 10, 20, 50, 100 years in a meaningful and transparent form?

The EU is the member states so the long term vision is theirs to have and to determine if they want. Conspiracy theorists, of course, have a secret cabal of power brokers working behind the scenes towards a United States of Europe. That, indeed, maybe an ultimate aim of many people but it’s pretty clear that the member nation states are nowhere near ready for it and may never be. Whatever, it’s the member nation states that will decide whether or not to take that step and no-one else. In the meantime all governments sees value for them in belonging to the EU bar us - even the vast majority of our leaders believed we should remain but what do they know the benighted idiots.

 

[Atilla]

Another view would say that the EU project has already failed. None of them banked on a Brexit, or any other meaningful opposition, so the EU has failed already in keeping a cohesive membership and reducing opposition in member states.

The Utopia that was to be, post-WW2, never really got going. I'm not sure that peace in Europe was it's major aim either, I would argue that the powers following WW2 were as clueless then, as they are now, and that the route they took was a reaction to the situation rather than a long-term plan for the future. The long term plan evolved out of a long held desire for a socialist Europe, which was voiced a long time before WW2.

However, world events have overtaken the original EU thinking and all the EU has done is to react with continued cluelessness and lack of vision and we are where we are now (this is mostly from a social cohesion POV).

What you see the EU doing now is upping the rhetoric, increasing the pace of military integration and other plans they had ready to launch on EU member states before Brexit occurred, they are forewarning of the costs which have reached astronomical levels. I don't believe anyone has yet explained the real reasons behind the mass migration programme that continues and has made a major contribution to rising dissatisfaction.

So I would argue that the EU project has already failed, what you are seeing now is a reaction to failure, progressing just as it did post-WW2, with no long term vision that has been communicated to member states or the populace.

Unless anyone can tell me the ideals the EU has/had communicated to us for the next 5, 10, 20, 50, 100 years in a meaningful and transparent form?

To be clear, what would constitute failure or success of the EU?

To elaborate I feel it is already successful but here are some items on my list...

Peace
Prosperity - high living standards
Healthy citizens
Happy citizens

Unity only good if members happy. UK I feel falls in this category. Not happy thus leaving.

 

[Signalcalc]

To be clear, what would constitute failure or success of the EU?

That is a good question. By what baseline do the EU themselves measure success or failure, if they even do?

To my mind the baseline should be based on the political ideology, I don't believe they have succeeded in transforming the nation states to meet the same ideology, therefore hasn't yet achieved success. When the dust settles, those member states that ultimately remain should all be subscribed to the central policies that govern the EU, with very little political dissatisfaction amongst the electorate, that would be success.

To elaborate I feel it is already successful but here are some items on my list...

Peace

I'll give them that to a certain extent, I believe we would have had peace regardless of the EU, Nazism was crushed and would have stayed crushed, NATO was setup to defend the West against rising communism from the East. And the UN steps in when commanded to do so.

Prosperity - high living standards

But what about equality of properity? When you have countries in financial crisis and most of the Southern Eurozone with mass high unemployment, then it seems they have not succeeded here.

Healthy citizens
Happy citizens

Why attributable to the EU? Would people not be healthy and happy without big government intervention? There is no doubt we are healthier through rising standards, technology and medical advances, but are we happier? Rising prescription ant-depressants usage, long working hours, unhealthy diets, social media and consumerism pressures suggest we may not be. I don't think the EU has a massive influence here.

 

[Signalcalc]

The EU is the member states so the long term vision is theirs to have and to determine if they want. Conspiracy theorists, of course, have a secret cabal of power brokers working behind the scenes towards a United States of Europe. That, indeed, maybe an ultimate aim of many people but it’s pretty clear that the member nation states are nowhere near ready for it and may never be. Whatever, it’s the member nation states that will decide whether or not to take that step and no-one else. In the meantime all governments sees value for them in belonging to the EU bar us - even the vast majority of our leaders believed we should remain but what do they know the benighted idiots.

Indeed, there are quite a number of member states with visible opposition to the EU now and it's growing. It will be interesting in 10-20 years to see what the next generation does, the youngsters on the continent appear to be quite anti-EU compared to the youngsters in the UK, if the media is to be believed.

 

[Atilla]

That is a good question. By what baseline do the EU themselves measure success or failure, if they even do?

To my mind the baseline should be based on the political ideology, I don't believe they have succeeded in transforming the nation states to meet the same ideology, therefore hasn't yet achieved success. When the dust settles, those member states that ultimately remain should all be subscribed to the central policies that govern the EU, with very little political dissatisfaction amongst the electorate, that would be success.

WHAT???? REALLY??? I'm absolutely shocked and stunned.


Weren't you the one saying Politics is boring? Politics add absolute zilch to the recipee. Economics and Politics is simply the allocation of scarce resources and distribution of rewards to a large extent and their use.

Well being, happiness and prosperity is the outcome imo So you don't want to look at the end product just simply what the process is.

People all over the world live and breath. 7bn of them. Forgive me but I fail to see your perspective as being a productive one.


I'll give them that to a certain extent, I believe we would have had peace regardless of the EU, Nazism was crushed and would have stayed crushed, NATO was setup to defend the West against rising communism from the East. And the UN steps in when commanded to do so.

Maybe and maybe not? Tough one to call that.

But what about equality of properity? When you have countries in financial crisis and most of the Southern Eurozone with mass high unemployment, then it seems they have not succeeded here.

Who's or what standards are you comparing this too? Very narrow perspective. Alternatively which countries do you feel have been successful that you wish to emulate?

Why attributable to the EU? Would people not be healthy and happy without big government intervention? There is no doubt we are healthier through rising standards, technology and medical advances, but are we happier? Rising prescription ant-depressants usage, long working hours, unhealthy diets, social media and consumerism pressures suggest we may not be. I don't think the EU has a massive influence here.

Yes it does. EU countries have super excellent health facilities. Look at premature baby deaths or average life expectancy around the world.


Strongly disagree with your success criteria SC. Can't see us reaching a consensus with just politics.

Solution is easy though. If politcal process is most important to you just emigrate to country of your choice

 

[Pat494]

Each wave of immigrants and wannabee immigrants from Africa and the ME will be greater than the last.
At least we won't be bossed by Merkel anymore with her open door policies.

 

[timsk]

Hi Jon,

. . . How you can equate the EU to a Ponzi scheme is beyond me. Nor how you can so certain that it will collapse. . .

If one (not you, obviously!) accepts the former, then the latter is inevitable, so I needn't say much more about that. As to how I - or anyone else - can equate the EU to a Ponzi scheme - that 's easy - 'coz it is one!

In all seriousness, the EU is exactly like a Ponzi scheme in all key respects bar one, and it's for this reason that Bernie Madoff is languishing in jail while Barnier & Junker et al swan around in chauffeur driven limos. Namely, that Madoff didn't tell anyone that he was running a Ponzi scheme - making him guilty of fraud - which is why he was sentenced to 125 years bird. Everyone knows that the EU is a giant Ponzi scheme - so while those that run it are guilty of all manner of things (misguided U.S. of E. political agenda and incompetence being top of the list) - they are not guilty of fraud.

It will fail when - not if - one of the major net contributors pulls the plug on its financial commitments to the EU. They can patch up the financial black hole left by the UK's departure but, if say, France were to pull out, then it would be game over IMO. And that's very possible as there's a growing dissatisfaction with the EU in France. And now that the honeymoon period is all but over for Macron (he's a political one hit wonder) - all it takes is for a centre or center left party to adopt a Frexit agenda and France could soon be having its own EU referendum.

Even if this doesn't happen, the EU will collapse anyway for the reason I sited in my last post, namely that one or other of the big net contributors will go into recession and simply won't be able to meet their financial obligations to the EU. Even if they do (meet their financial obligations), it'll be political suicide as the people simply won't accept cuts in funding to education, infrastructure and hospitals etc. so that billions can be paid to the EU so that they can then prop up crippled economies like Greece and all the blowins* from eastern Europe. So the EU's demise is simply a question of time - nothing more.
Tim.

*A Devon expression referring to people who move into a village or town who weren't born there.

 

[tomorton]

Hard to see France or any big EU member exiting on economic recession grounds - the smaller members would have been bankrupted long before France etc. But even this would be a process, not a sudden event, and financial issues will simply bind the weaker economies, especially the smaller EUR economies, all the more tightly to the EU for support. Where else would they go for help? - back to Russia?

A movement towards exit on political grounds, a la Brexit, is a possibility, but that's not going to happen overnight with any major member either. And its popular support will be influenced by finances. Between now and then, there is plenty of time to see how exit from the EU affects the UK economy. To convince anyone that exit is a financially good idea, the UK is going to have to outperform every other economy in terms of GDP growth in the next 5 years. Not just that, we're going to have to outperform our own performance when we were recently in the EU pre-Brexit, and that's impossible to even imagine.

Without a financial incentive, politically based Frexit withers on the vine.

 

[tomorton]

In fact, I suppose the Brexit process wins the EU some breathing space from the continental Euro-sceptics - why would anyone else take a financial risk by following the UK out of the EU, when they could simply wait a few years and see how we do?

 

[barjon]

Hi Jon,

If one (not you, obviously!) accepts the former, then the latter is inevitable, so I needn't say much more about that. As to how I - or anyone else - can equate the EU to a Ponzi scheme - that 's easy - 'coz it is one!

In all seriousness, the EU is exactly like a Ponzi scheme in all key respects bar one, and it's for this reason that Bernie Madoff is languishing in jail while Barnier & Junker et al swan around in chauffeur driven limos. Namely, that Madoff didn't tell anyone that he was running a Ponzi scheme - making him guilty of fraud - which is why he was sentenced to 125 years bird. Everyone knows that the EU is a giant Ponzi scheme - so while those that run it are guilty of all manner of things (misguided U.S. of E. political agenda and incompetence being top of the list) - they are not guilty of fraud.

It will fail when - not if - one of the major net contributors pulls the plug on its financial commitments to the EU. They can patch up the financial black hole left by the UK's departure but, if say, France were to pull out, then it would be game over IMO. And that's very possible as there's a growing dissatisfaction with the EU in France. And now that the honeymoon period is all but over for Macron (he's a political one hit wonder) - all it takes is for a centre or center left party to adopt a Frexit agenda and France could soon be having its own EU referendum.

Even if this doesn't happen, the EU will collapse anyway for the reason I sited in my last post, namely that one or other of the big net contributors will go into recession and simply won't be able to meet their financial obligations to the EU. Even if they do (meet their financial obligations), it'll be political suicide as the people simply won't accept cuts in funding to education, infrastructure and hospitals etc. so that billions can be paid to the EU so that they can then prop up crippled economies like Greece and all the blowins* from eastern Europe. So the EU's demise is simply a question of time - nothing more.
Tim.

*A Devon expression referring to people who move into a village or town who weren't born there.

If the EU is a Ponzi scheme then so is UK and those who contribute to keep the likes of you idle Devonians happy will eventually rebel and the union will crumble.

 

[Pat494]

The tragedy is that the EU will probably wait until after Brexit before introducing some much needed reforms.
It will be disastrous for some exporters if their old EU market is closed by the stupid EU leadership unwilling to upgrade.