Brexit and the Consequences

Wall Street banks want Theresa May to delay Brexit for as long as possible

Same again. Request to the government to allow for adjustment...


Some interesting notes which are now hitting home.

May told National Public Radio in the US, as per The Sun, that: "One of the purposes of my meeting with US investors, and that included US banks, was to hear from them what their concerns are and what their key issues are as we go forward with our negotiations.

"I hope the message they took was that I recognise the importance of financial services and the City of London as an important international financial centre."

May also signalled in that interview that Article 50, which officially begins the process of Britain leaving the European Union, would be triggered by a letter.

Once Article 50 is triggered, Britain will have a two-year window to negotiate its exit. It is unclear if this will satisfy the bank's calls for a "long runway" to prepare.

Financial institutions are concerned Britain will lose its passporting rights, which allow them to operate across the European Union using a single British licence.

The EU has said that Britain must accept free movement of people if it wants to keep passporting rights but Theresa May has signalled she is determined to curb migration, saying as much to Wall Street chiefs according to the FT.

The European Union is signalling it won't cut a special deal with the City of London if the UK leaves the European single market and banks such as JPMorgan and UBS have already warned of potential post-Brexit job losses. Deutsche Bank has also prepared a secret briefing paper looking at where banks may want to relocated to, obtained by Business Insider.

The Financial Conduct Authority revealed earlier this week that 5,500 companies in Britain with a collective revenue of £9 billion ($11.7 billion) that benefit from passporting rights.
 
Isnt it strange that Tories who were anti Brexit are now coming out with quite strong rhetoric about wanting a hard Brexit . May and Rudd were against Brexit if i recall correctly. Its almost like they are trying to make the public reconsider and hope for a second referendum. But that wouldnt make sense as their political careers would be over if that happened
 
Its all now about getting the best deal from the EU. The tougher we talk now, maybe, they hope, the easier will be the negotiations after Article 50 is triggered. Also, if it looks like we're over the moon with the Brexit result and can't wait to get out to be able to grow our newly unfettered economy, it might strengthen the hands of the other really (or ostensibly) Euro-sceptic governments and oppositions - this weakens the unanimity of the EU negotiating position.

Of course, the better the post-Brexit trade deal we get, the more it encourages others to leave, so the higher the stakes for the EU, so they have no choice but to dig in and fight us every inch (centimetre) of the way.
 
tomorton said:
Its all now about getting the best deal from the EU. The tougher we talk now, maybe, they hope, the easier will be the negotiations after Article 50 is triggered. Also, if it looks like we're over the moon with the Brexit result and can't wait to get out to be able to grow our newly unfettered economy, it might strengthen the hands of the other really (or ostensibly) Euro-sceptic governments and oppositions - this weakens the unanimity of the EU negotiating position.

Of course, the better the post-Brexit trade deal we get, the more it encourages others to leave, so the higher the stakes for the EU, so they have no choice but to dig in and fight us every inch (centimetre) of the way.
Click to expand...


Tough talk and uncertainty will cause businesses to leave. As we've seen last week markets response to Conservative party conference.

Businesses may already start to wonder what they are doing in London or the UK with an already high or increasing cost base with falling asset valuations in London. DB is already doing this. Japan has written a letter. Others building contingency plans asking for an extension period for adjustment so they can implement them.

Why bother with the uncertainty, just move now and reduce costs and cut risks. Once they realise advantages to being in EU they'll wonder what they were doing in London and the UK.

This is Boris's vision, we can get a better deal from the EU! Really?
We don't need the EU! Ok...
We can do better without the EU! Ok...

Merkel will not even engage in pre-article 50 discussions so how far you'll get with this kind of amateur approach remains to be seen. Difficult woman Theresa May indeed, but EU don't see it that way.

Right now EU is seeing opportunities from UK departure. I see UK playing into EU hands not negotiating anything.

I guess it depends on your perspective as to whether EU is weak and GDP and growth is faltering or not. Time will tell as all lies will come home to roost.

Theresa May started off well but is in danger of entering a quagmire of political sewage. Moreover, invoking article 50 just before majore EU elections, how much quality time does the UK expect?


All going horribly wrong imo. :(
 
Horribly wrong, yes. But we are where we are.

Best we can hope for now is a politically weak EU that stays around just long enough for us to squeeze a good deal for trade. As a bonus, EU then breaks up and the 24 ex-EU states that are smaller than us and getting smaller come knocking cap in hand on our door. But I don't see it as likely.

More likely we have just surrendered Europe to Germany, who will go ahead and do whatever to keep the EU together. After a century and a half of trying, they could be about to succeed in creating their own mainland European empire.
 
tomorton said:
Its all now about getting the best deal from the EU. The tougher we talk now, maybe, they hope, the easier will be the negotiations after Article 50 is triggered. Also, if it looks like we're over the moon with the Brexit result and can't wait to get out to be able to grow our newly unfettered economy, it might strengthen the hands of the other really (or ostensibly) Euro-sceptic governments and oppositions - this weakens the unanimity of the EU negotiating position.

Of course, the better the post-Brexit trade deal we get, the more it encourages others to leave, so the higher the stakes for the EU, so they have no choice but to dig in and fight us every inch (centimetre) of the way.
Click to expand...

What have we got to be tough about? The EU hold all the aces. We're leaving the club and trying to retain the benefits without accepting any of the responsibilities. It's not the strongest negotiating position in the world :LOL:
 
The EU is a failing economy. Maybe some of its member state's economies have effectively already crashed if not for the ECB's (and Germany's) financial efforts. The UK is the fastest growing economy in the G7 and the largest economy by far in Europe still retaining its own sovereign currency. In certain strategic sectors, not least finance, we hold key position.

I think we will find the EU needs us quite a bit.
 
tomorton said:
The EU is a failing economy. Maybe some of its member state's economies have effectively already crashed if not for the ECB's (and Germany's) financial efforts. The UK is the fastest growing economy in the G7 and the largest economy by far in Europe still retaining its own sovereign currency. In certain strategic sectors, not least finance, we hold key position.

I think we will find the EU needs us quite a bit.
Click to expand...

The fastest growing economy in the G7 despite the EU millstone round our necks :) Wonder how much of that success is down to heavyweights who rely on our EU membership to operate within our shores.
 
People don't seem to understand the economics of it all either.

When calculating growth one can use;

1. GD Product
2. GD Expenditure or
3. GD Income

Each of these measure's is impacted by population growth. As UK has a declining birth rate along with an ageing population net positive migration flows help with these GDP stat and obviously growth. So much so other countries are doing the same. Even Japan has opened gates to economic migration because their aged pops and birth rates far worse then other countries.

So what's heading UK's way...

1. Reduce economic migration.
2. Increase in baby boomers retiring.
3. Loss of skill sets need to be replenished.

Just wondering if anyone here believes our growth is purely due to endogenous productivity improvements because UK is a great manufacturing power house?

I have real trouble understanding how people can say ignore experts listen to numpties instead, who state EU is in decline contrary to growth by simply comparing it to other faster growth rates of the BRIC nations. :-0:eek::-0:eek:

The mind boggles???
 
I'm not convinced we're going to see European economic migration to the UK cut off like UKIP (apparently) thought it should be, its way too helpful to us economically.
 
tomorton said:
The EU is a failing economy. Maybe some of its member state's economies have effectively already crashed if not for the ECB's (and Germany's) financial efforts. The UK is the fastest growing economy in the G7 and the largest economy by far in Europe still retaining its own sovereign currency. In certain strategic sectors, not least finance, we hold key position.

I think we will find the EU needs us quite a bit.
Click to expand...
Blimey Tom,
For a moment there, I had to double check whose post I was reading. Was I reading a post by your good self who I thought was in the remain camp or, perhaps, a post of my own or one by c_v, or someone else from the leave camp!!!

Either way, absolutely spot on!
:LOL:
Tim.
 
timsk said:
Blimey Tom,
For a moment there, I had to double check whose post I was reading. Was I reading a post by your good self who I thought was in the remain camp or, perhaps, a post of my own or one by c_v, or someone else from the leave camp!!!

Either way, absolutely spot on!
:LOL:
Tim.
Click to expand...


I was very definitely in the remain camp Tim, but that battle has been fought and lost. The objective now is best possible deal for the UK and though I wish we were not here, yet here we are.

Worst possible outcome from the current political evolution would be threat of second Brexit referendum. Next worst would be Labour government. Pretty bad would be early general election leading to hung parliament. Not good would be stretching out the Article 50 exit period beyond 2 years.
 
Hmm all the bleating by the finance sector feels like a repeat of pre- Brexit project fear, sounds like the elite are up to their old tricks and now look at old new labour joining in wanting another go at a legal challenge of some sort!
 
‘Complete Outrage’
“It would be a complete outrage if May were to determine the terms of Brexit without a mandate from parliament,” Miliband told The Observer. “There is no mandate for hard Brexit.”

Keir Starmer, Labour’s spokesman for Brexit, said on Sunday that it could be a “disaster” if lawmakers weren’t able to have a say on the terms of Britain’s departure from the EU.

“The terms on which we are going to negotiate absolutely have to be put to a vote in the House, because if we can’t get the opening terms right, we’ll never get the right result,” he said on the “Andrew Marr Show” on the BBC. “Nobody, whether they voted to leave or remain, voted for the government to take an ax to the economy, and the prime minister’s stance on the single market is making it nigh on impossible to have access to the single market, and that is a huge risk to the economy, jobs and working people.”
Former Conservative Education Secretary Nicky Morgan, in an interview on Sky News on Sunday, also called for parliament to have a vote on Brexit negotiations, saying it would be “extraordinary” for that not to happen.
 
Blimey Atilla, don't you ever sleep? I guess that's how you make 13,000 posts, just never go to bed.

I've heard of no legal obligation on the government to put the EU's terms after Article 50 negotiations to a Parliament vote of approval or the voters via a referendum. But the pro-vote MPs can always force such action - if they can raise enough MPs to require it - that's called parliamentary democracy.

But this is a slippery slope. What if the EU deal is rejected by parliament? Would that allow a referendum? If so, what's the point of having MPs who dump the key decisions onto the people? And what if the referendum accepted the deal? Would parliament acquiesce? And what if the commons like the deal but the lords don't?

And if the EU deal is not successfully challenged by parliament because they couldn't get the votes, would MP's nevertheless support a vote for a new referendum?

And don't forget, not everyone in parliament is committed to the well-being of the 4 united nations as a United Kingdom.
 
tomorton said:
Blimey Atilla, don't you ever sleep? I guess that's how you make 13,000 posts, just never go to bed.

I've heard of no legal obligation on the government to put the EU's terms after Article 50 negotiations to a Parliament vote of approval or the voters via a referendum. But the pro-vote MPs can always force such action - if they can raise enough MPs to require it - that's called parliamentary democracy.

But this is a slippery slope. What if the EU deal is rejected by parliament? Would that allow a referendum? If so, what's the point of having MPs who dump the key decisions onto the people? And what if the referendum accepted the deal? Would parliament acquiesce? And what if the commons like the deal but the lords don't?

And if the EU deal is not successfully challenged by parliament because they couldn't get the votes, would MP's nevertheless support a vote for a new referendum?

And don't forget, not everyone in parliament is committed to the well-being of the 4 united nations as a United Kingdom.
Click to expand...


Watched the US debate, so boring started reading up on BBG and on the Asian session. I sleep well at the drop of a hat, anywhere, anytime, anyway :)

Hear what you are saying but the way this hard brexit is going due South not a pleasant thought.

Glad Theresa is going to apply some charm. How does a difficult woman apply charm :whistling
 
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