Brexit and the Consequences

[Sonicscooter]

You forgot that cable is at the lows and hence uk shares are priced in pounds then the ftse is not at the highs , its below pre brexit levels . Inverse correlation much like the yen and the Nekkei.

It really is amazing, on a forum like this, how negative people are and quick to jump on the negative band wagon............it's simple, like most things in life......Nothing negative is happening or will happen.

The less time i spend on this forum, the better my trading matures.

 

[tar]

Calm down lol

Its not my business but from a trading perspective your assumptions re the ftse are wrong just saying .

I tell you from now the ftse will go even higher and cable lower .


GL

 

[ffsear]

The way I see it is the Eur and JPY are where they should be, Is this run on cable more about the US fed then it is about Brexit?

 

[Sonicscooter]

Calm down lol

Its not my business but from a trading perspective your assumptions re the ftse is wrong just saying .

I tell you from now the ftse will go even higher and cable lower .


GL

So the only people who bought British companies shares after June 23rd are from other countries....if life was so so simple.

 

[tomorton]

Calm down lol

Its not my business but from trading perspective your assumptions re the ftse is wrong just saying .

I tell you from now the ftse will go even higher and cable lower .


GL

That's right tar. We're in for a what I see as a decade of pain from the referendum result. After that we will probably see our economy start to climb past where it would have been harnessed to the EU, after another 5-10 years. I believe the UK will be pronounced stronger out of the EU in 15-20 years than it would have been, but its not certain and even then, the price to be paid, which we haven't even seen yet, might be very very high.

 

[Sonicscooter]

The way I see it is the Eur and JPY are where they should be, Is this run on cable more about the US fed then it is about Brexit?

Not got a clue, never look at Forex....i'm just amazed that the remainers have been consistently wrong for six month.....six months...and still bleat on like lost sheep.............well at least i know who is losing on here....lol.

 

[tar]

The way I see it is the Eur and JPY are where they should be, Is this run on cable more about the US fed then it is about Brexit?

Brexit

 

[forker]

The way I see it is the Eur and JPY are where they should be, Is this run on cable more about the US fed then it is about Brexit?

i think so. rake hike on the cards and the data is supporting it

 

[tar]

Cable keeps pushing lower despite the jump in the euro ...

 

[Pat494]

The pound is wobbling. The guru on Bloomberg reckons it will be at 1.22 in a few months. He is predicting a hard exit.

 

[Sonicscooter]

The pound is wobbling. The guru on Bloomberg reckons it will be at 1.22 in a few months. He is predicting a hard exit.

You watch Bloomberg..........lol....lol.....lol..................WHY....:?:

 

[ffsear]

 

[forker]

This drop today is off the back of May's speech. Its a short term blip that has zero fundamental basis which is why it sat in a range for the rest of the day.


Regarding the massive uncertainty published everywhere. Lets look at some data:

current exports to EU = 15 billion$
current GDP = 2.8 trillion$

% of GDP exports to EU = 0.5%

offset cost of member5hit(p) = 8 billion$

Net loss of GDP = 0.2% (Every man for himself, the ship is sinking)

-----------------------------------------
using an example of an expensive tariff (cars) we looking at an additional 10%

cost of medium car 40k£
add 10% 44k£

offset over the payment lifetime (3 years) probably an extra 50£ a month. (GOD please save me the pain and suffering)

---------------------------
Not a train smash, certainly nothing we will lose sleep over. i should point out that EUGBP has been here before (2013)

 

[Atilla]

Hey guys, I've given up on Brexit but we haven't seen anything yet about how it may progress or any of the fall out just yet. Outcome will take literally 10-20-30 years to become clear that's for sure. Don't count your chickens just yet. However, if Parliament sees it through then I'll certainly put my back into it.

Re outcomes, Tar is correct and irrespective of winners and gainers and the share punters in the FTSE100, one should judge the indeces and FX capital flows correctly.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...e-100-rally-no-cause-for-joy-to-u-s-investors

While the equity benchmark has surged 14 percent this year in local currency, it has declined about 1.4 percent in dollar terms, the biggest underperformance since the global financial crisis.


Heard some positive noises about trainging NHS nurses and doctors in teh UK. In fact raising the numbers too which sound all well and good but the caveat in all this will be current doctors and nurses also retiring. The numbers are just marginally up assuming the take up materialises based on poor salaries on offer.

In some respects I always felt the finance industry was pampered whilst manufacturing decimated in the past. It would seem letting the pound drop and not fighting Finance Industries corner will benefit engineering & manufacturing firms if Govie also helps out with massive building and infrastructure projects u.p and down the country. This remains to be seen however.

As for those of you saying the World hasn't caved in, well nothing has happened just yet other than intention and words been spoken coupled with rate drop, pound drop and more QE.

I did hear the speech from the Tory party but if anybody noticed they only mentioned controlling migration from outside of the EU. This could and should have been done years before but for lack of will and effort.


I'm not down on Brexit but I am very sad as I still perceive it to be an ill judged decision which will not bear well for the UK, even after 10 years. In fact I feel it will get worse with passage of time. Time will tell...

So far the drop in the pound can be perceived as good helping exports and importing inflation to help pay off debt. Raising rates or TB yields however, will increase cost of servicing debt which is not good at all for tax payers.

Re: the future, I had a strange notion that if it goes tits up, the Tories will get the blame, with Liberals and Labour coming in with further disastrous policies to really feck up industry and hard working MC with higher taxes. Rich fat cats will leave taking earnings and capital with them. Out of the pan and into the fire as they say. Hope it doesn't happen but the thought does scare me.

Anyhow, preparing for the great escape. As it happens it's likely to coincide with Brexit and be around 2018-20 for me. :whistling


I'm trying to think of a clever way to carry out some financial crime so I can get HMG to pay for my deportation to Australia :cheesy:

 

[Splitlink]

That's right tar. We're in for a what I see as a decade of pain from the referendum result. After that we will probably see our economy start to climb past where it would have been harnessed to the EU, after another 5-10 years. I believe the UK will be pronounced stronger out of the EU in 15-20 years than it would have been, but its not certain and even then, the price to be paid, which we haven't even seen yet, might be very very high.

You may be right about UK, Tom, but this week I am not optimistic about EU. Hungary, Germany, France....their citizens are not happy. Spain is having serious political problems.

The right wing , what is a caretaker government under Rajoy, needs 10 seats to make a majority. Try as it might, it can't seem to get them. It is not, only, about the economy. There are millions of, really, brassed off people who are forming new left wing parties. Catalunya and the Basques ae pressing for independence referendums.

In addition, in one week, they have picked up 6,500 boat people from Libya.

Maybe I'll be happier next week!

 

[forker]

I reckon at least one more country will want to exit the group over the next couple of years

 

[Atilla]

I reckon at least one more country will want to exit the group over the next couple of years

I think it will be more than one. Good hand full. I don't like the leadership in some of the new small states.

I suspect some countries will come closer together, culminating in a European Parliament with a unified currency, bank and laws including taxation and expenditure. Ultimately with a single border, police, security and military.

Whilst the laggards can drop out. All this separation of areas and tribalism is sooo yesterday. It may take another 50 years but I can see Brexit accelerating that movement.

 

[tomorton]

You may be right about UK, Tom, but this week I am not optimistic about EU. Hungary, Germany, France....their citizens are not happy. Spain is having serious political problems.

The right wing , what is a caretaker government under Rajoy, needs 10 seats to make a majority. Try as it might, it can't seem to get them. It is not, only, about the economy. There are millions of, really, brassed off people who are forming new left wing parties. Catalunya and the Basques ae pressing for independence referendums.

In addition, in one week, they have picked up 6,500 boat people from Libya.

Maybe I'll be happier next week!

The weaker the EU, the better the UK should be able to do in Brexit trade negotiations.

 

[Atilla]

Europe isn't weak.

Italy has had about 50 governments since 1950. Nothing new there.

I see opportunities for Europe to consolidate and grab market share. Everything else will continue as before.


Addenda: http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2013/04/economist-explains-8
The problem is not new. Ever since Italy reconstituted itself as a republic in 1946, a year after the fall of Benito Mussolini, it has churned through governments. In the 67 years since Italians have had 61 governments (or 62, if you count Mr Letta’s), each one lasting for a little more than a year on average.

 

[counter_violent]

Europe isn't weak.

Italy has had about 50 governments since 1950. Nothing new there.

I see opportunities for Europe to consolidate and grab market share. Everything else will continue as before.


Addenda: http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2013/04/economist-explains-8
The problem is not new. Ever since Italy reconstituted itself as a republic in 1946, a year after the fall of Benito Mussolini, it has churned through governments. In the 67 years since Italians have had 61 governments (or 62, if you count Mr Letta’s), each one lasting for a little more than a year on average.

Of course Europe is weak, that's why we voted to leave. Whilst they have out of touch leadership following protectionist policies, the only direction they can go is down. That's the optimistic view point. I think it will all fall apart in the next few years.