Atilla
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http://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...rd-quarter-gdp-france-eu-brexit-a8028891.html
Considering UK was leading EU growth data before Brexit, this is a serious slow down in contrast to global growth which has been gathering pace.
Considering BoE cut rates after Brexit referendum and the pound gave up 20% at one time whilst manufacturing has done a little better, service industries even less so.
Brexiteers like to point out UK doing well whilst lagging behind Global and EU growth. These are facts that are being ignored. We haven't left the EU yet either. It will get considerably worse.
No ryhme or reason to Brexiteers rational. Big flaw in their plans is the end vision of an economy supporting safe haven for tax and money laundering with low corporation taxes only suitable for small countries with small populations. We are not Switzerland and if we attempt to become one, few will gain even more (like Moggy) whilst the many will lose so much more.
The eurozone’s economy once again grew faster than the UK’s in the third quarter of 2017, according to the latest data, confirming the divergence in economic fortunes between Britain and the continent as Brexit approaches in 2019.
Eurostat estimated on Tuesday that the collective GDP of the 19 states of the single currency area grew by 0.6 per cent in the three months to September, faster than the 0.4 per cent growth registered by the UK over the same period.
Read more
The truth about whether we should expect another recession
This follows eurozone GDP growth of 0.7 per cent in the second quarter, when the UK grew by just 0.3 per cent, also the weakest rate in the G7.
On an annual basis the GDP growth divergence was even more stark, with the eurozone expanding by 2.5 per cent in the third quarter while UK growth was just 1.5 per cent.
The eurozone is experiencing a cyclical recovery, after years of rolling financial crisis, while the UK has been hit this year by a rise in inflation stemming from the slump in sterling in the wake of last year’s Brexit vote.
Business investment has also been weak in the UK due to firms’ concerns about trade arrangements after March 2019.
France’s GDP grew by 0.5 per cent in the third quarter, its national statistics agency reported on Tuesday.
The annual rate of growth in the eurozone’s second largest economy was 2.2 per cent, the highest since 2011, driven by consumer spending and business investment.
Meanwhile, eurozone unemployment declined to 8.9 per cent in September, the lowest since January 2009, although still well above the UK’s current rate of 4.3 per cent.
Considering UK was leading EU growth data before Brexit, this is a serious slow down in contrast to global growth which has been gathering pace.
Considering BoE cut rates after Brexit referendum and the pound gave up 20% at one time whilst manufacturing has done a little better, service industries even less so.
Brexiteers like to point out UK doing well whilst lagging behind Global and EU growth. These are facts that are being ignored. We haven't left the EU yet either. It will get considerably worse.
No ryhme or reason to Brexiteers rational. Big flaw in their plans is the end vision of an economy supporting safe haven for tax and money laundering with low corporation taxes only suitable for small countries with small populations. We are not Switzerland and if we attempt to become one, few will gain even more (like Moggy) whilst the many will lose so much more.
The eurozone’s economy once again grew faster than the UK’s in the third quarter of 2017, according to the latest data, confirming the divergence in economic fortunes between Britain and the continent as Brexit approaches in 2019.
Eurostat estimated on Tuesday that the collective GDP of the 19 states of the single currency area grew by 0.6 per cent in the three months to September, faster than the 0.4 per cent growth registered by the UK over the same period.
Read more
The truth about whether we should expect another recession
This follows eurozone GDP growth of 0.7 per cent in the second quarter, when the UK grew by just 0.3 per cent, also the weakest rate in the G7.
On an annual basis the GDP growth divergence was even more stark, with the eurozone expanding by 2.5 per cent in the third quarter while UK growth was just 1.5 per cent.
The eurozone is experiencing a cyclical recovery, after years of rolling financial crisis, while the UK has been hit this year by a rise in inflation stemming from the slump in sterling in the wake of last year’s Brexit vote.
Business investment has also been weak in the UK due to firms’ concerns about trade arrangements after March 2019.
France’s GDP grew by 0.5 per cent in the third quarter, its national statistics agency reported on Tuesday.
The annual rate of growth in the eurozone’s second largest economy was 2.2 per cent, the highest since 2011, driven by consumer spending and business investment.
Meanwhile, eurozone unemployment declined to 8.9 per cent in September, the lowest since January 2009, although still well above the UK’s current rate of 4.3 per cent.
timsk
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Hi Jon,
Tim.
Actually, that's not quite true. Behind the rationale that I outlined in my last post, I did do a sort 'factual analysis of the future' based on what has happened thus far. And I concluded that if we stayed in the EU we'll all be bu88ered. And I arrived at that conclusion pretty easily and quickly just by looking at how well the whole project is going and how much the U.K. benefits from it. The trend is clear and it points downhill. By way of example, check out episode 3 of this recent channel 4 doc': The Channel: The World's Busiest Waterway The sickening scene circa 14 minutes in sums it up for me.
Fair play, I was being a bit mischievous and I'm sure I don't have your grasp on how the EU functions. Bravo - you've got me on both counts! Nonetheless, it's logical to me that if we - dare I say it - take back control of our own laws, then the outrageous spectacle in the documentary above will become a thing of the past.
Well, my understanding is that civil servants do what the government of the day tells them to do. So, if we elect politicians on a platform that they will put an end to the craziness endured by our fisherman (just to stick to the current example), then the mandarins in Whitehall will make it happen.
Tim.
barjon
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Atilla
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You are an academic Tim, so here is a question for you?
Look up the size of the UK economy and compare it to the fishing industry?
Would you not say it would be reasonable act to carry out the same due consideration on the other areas?
Alternatively, if you feel fishing industry is a typical and sufficient representation of the UK economy in it's totality then fair dos.
There was some talk of 56 sectors or papers but that's all we hear. I agree fishing industry would benefit from Brexit. https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/uk/pdf/2017/03/brexit-the-sector-impact.pdf
All the best
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counter_violent
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You are an academic Tim, so here is a question for you?
Look up the size of the UK economy and compare it to the fishing industry?
Would you not say it would be reasonable act to carry out the same due consideration on the other areas?
Alternatively, if you feel fishing industry is a typical and sufficient representation of the UK economy in it's totality then fair dos.
There was some talk of 56 sectors or papers but that's all we hear. I agree fishing industry would benefit from Brexit. https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/uk/pdf/2017/03/brexit-the-sector-impact.pdf
All the best
What is the point in singling out any One industry or sector when it is obvious that the UK needs to move towards a more balanced economy .
We have seen the result of 45 yrs EU membership thank you very much, where we paid a net contribution to the system then watched as the central planners exported all our high skill, high pay, honest jobs, disappearing off to the next backwater country where the peasants were only too happy to quit scratching about in the dirt.
Only bean counters would think of this as a great idea!
Truth is, nobody is listening to you guys anymore. The evidence is as clear over here as it is in the US. Brexit and Trump are not accidental.
So, you just watch what happens to the rest of Europe over the coming months.
timsk
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Hi Atilla,
The reason I highlighted fishing was really in response to Jon's comment: " . . .So whether it [Brexit] will turn out to be better for us was not a factor in your decision beyond an assumption (guess) that it would be if our elected MPs were shaping the rules?"
I care about fishing a lot and, IMO, it's a good example (albeit not a typical one) of how the EU has got things badly wrong. The bizarre rationale behind fishing quotas and forcing fisherman to discard dead fish is a clear indication that something, somewhere, is fundamentally wrong. If they were willing to listen, to adapt and change - then I might feel very differently about them. I might even have voted remain! However, their intransigence (remember Cameron's pre-referendum visit to Brussels) and 'one size fits all' approach is plain to see and is never going to work. When we leave and are able to plough our own furrow I hope and expect the U.K. fishing industry to get back on its feet and the dreadful practices we see today will be a thing of the past.
All the best to you too, Atilla.
Tim.
Wow - I've been called all sorts of things over the years, but no one's ever called me an academic before. I can't wait to tell my aunt who is a real academic (history professor and writer) - she'll be in tears with laughter!
I guess your general point is that fishing isn't a typical sector of the economy in terms of impact by Brexit or very representative of the economy as a whole. I accept and agree with both points.
The reason I highlighted fishing was really in response to Jon's comment: " . . .So whether it [Brexit] will turn out to be better for us was not a factor in your decision beyond an assumption (guess) that it would be if our elected MPs were shaping the rules?"
I care about fishing a lot and, IMO, it's a good example (albeit not a typical one) of how the EU has got things badly wrong. The bizarre rationale behind fishing quotas and forcing fisherman to discard dead fish is a clear indication that something, somewhere, is fundamentally wrong. If they were willing to listen, to adapt and change - then I might feel very differently about them. I might even have voted remain! However, their intransigence (remember Cameron's pre-referendum visit to Brussels) and 'one size fits all' approach is plain to see and is never going to work. When we leave and are able to plough our own furrow I hope and expect the U.K. fishing industry to get back on its feet and the dreadful practices we see today will be a thing of the past.
All the best to you too, Atilla.
Tim.
I can't see fishing ever getting back on its feet. Fish are not farmed, except for salmon, and, therefore, do not belong to anyone,unless they are inside a country's limits, and the fish don't know about those.
Spanish trawlers have been in trouble with Canada, I know, and they go over to the Indian Ocean, too. Big problems with fish worldwide and being a Brexiteer won't solve anything in that sector.
Spanish trawlers have been in trouble with Canada, I know, and they go over to the Indian Ocean, too. Big problems with fish worldwide and being a Brexiteer won't solve anything in that sector.
mike.
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Apologies for drifting off topic, I may have mentioned this before or possibly forgot to write a post..Anyway Tim, I find your writing style,diction and grammar very easy to follow and there is obviously some tallent there, Have you ever thought about writing as a hobby/profession ? One on the best amature authors i know is Jordan Belfort, Ive read both his books now, wolf of wall st and catching wolf of wall st, Both books draw you in to them to a point your laughing out loud or have a lump in the throat...Just a thought... New year, new beginnings..
Atilla
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I agree with your comments here CV but would encourage you to at least to ponder about the powerful meaning behind your words.
The reason why UK does not have a balanced economy is precisely coz manufacturing is virtually non-existent and thus fall in pound doesn't have a big a boost to exports as one may like to think. Won't go into who decimated that industry instead of supporting it.
In contrast to decimation of manufacturing yes we should be thankful to the EU as it has insulated us to the global shocks and smoothed out the decline of manufacturing by supporting Agriculture and Service Industry.
As for singling out a single sector I agree with you there too and thus why I urged Timsk to expand his impact analsyis to some of the others. For example Motor Industry, Medicine or dare I mention finance???
All the best :cheers:
Atilla
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Perhaps it's the lesser of two evils. Have you considered the other side of the what if not?
Fishing stocks are in decline and scientists have even called on Europe to cut back on quotas to 2017 because there is over fishing and stocks below 85% healthy levels.
Moreover, dead fish become food to other fish. Simply that if some dead fish weren't thrown back, many more would be caught instead.
I know you are green in principal but do you not think we should look at sustainable fishing and towards some sort of ecological balance than going alone free for all approach.
Once again without some key research and investigation, taking a balanced approach leads one to make regrettable decisions for the future.
Here is one write up on Fishing https://www.theguardian.com/environ...ing-quotas-raises-fears-over-dwindling-stocks
All the best to you too... Let me know when you do get to publish I'd like a signed copy please. Make sure it has some pictures in it though as it will help with my comprehension. I'd prefer the text to be in 12 point size and make sure you don't use Sans Serif.
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Atilla
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Perhaps it's the lesser of two evils. Have you considered the other side of the what if not?
Fishing stocks are in decline and scientists have even called on Europe to cut back on quotas to 2017 because there is over fishing and stocks below 85% healthy levels.
Moreover, dead fish become food to other fish. Simply that if some dead fish weren't thrown back, many more would be caught instead.
I know you are green in principal but do you not think we should look at sustainable fishing and towards some sort of ecological balance than going alone free for all approach.
Once again without some key research and investigation, taking a balanced approach leads one to make regrettable decisions for the future.
Here is one write up on Fishing https://www.theguardian.com/environ...ing-quotas-raises-fears-over-dwindling-stocks
All the best to you too... Let me know when you do get to publish I'd like a signed copy please. Make sure it has some pictures in it though as it helps with my comprehension. fwiw I'd prefer text to be in 12 point size and don't use Sans Serif.
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timsk
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Hi Split' & Atilla,
I agree that the fishing industry is complex and there are big issues which extend way beyond Brexit. That said, there are two countries that manage their fish stocks pretty well and, broadly speaking, don't suffer from the same issues that blight the industry here in the U.K. They are Iceland and Norway respectively. Now, ponder on this (rhetorical ) question: besides having sustainable fish stocks - what else do these two countries have in common?
I'm tempted to add Switzerland but, as a landlocked country its fishing industry isn't quite as developed as that of Iceland and Norway. Even so, if it was in member state, the EU would gladly give it money from the European Fisheries Fund (EFF) - just as it's done for Austria, Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia - all of which are also sans fishing fleets on account of being landlocked!
Granted, it will take years for fish stocks in the U.K. - along with its fishing industry - to recover but, without EU bureaucratic madness, recover it will. Outside of the EU, there's no reason why we can't be on a par with Iceland, Norway and other countries who are free to implement their own policies to ensure their fisheries are well maintained, managed and sustainable.
Tim.
Atilla
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Hi Split' & Atilla,
I agree that the fishing industry is complex and there are big issues which extend way beyond Brexit. That said, there are two countries that manage their fish stocks pretty well and, broadly speaking, don't suffer from the same issues that blight the industry here in the U.K. They are Iceland and Norway respectively. Now, ponder on this (rhetorical ) question: besides having sustainable fish stocks - what else do these two countries have in common?
I'm tempted to add Switzerland but, as a landlocked country its fishing industry isn't quite as developed as that of Iceland and Norway. Even so, if it was in member state, the EU would gladly give it money from the European Fisheries Fund (EFF) - just as it's done for Austria, Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia - all of which are also sans fishing fleets on account of being landlocked!
Granted, it will take years for fish stocks in the U.K. - along with its fishing industry - to recover but, without EU bureaucratic madness, recover it will. Outside of the EU, there's no reason why we can't be on a par with Iceland, Norway and other countries who are free to implement their own policies to ensure their fisheries are well maintained, managed and sustainable.
Tim.
Well once again BIA is key here and two countries you pick are unique wrt fishing industry.
First Iceland where most of the fish caught is within its 200m exclusive economic zone. Foreign boats are not allowed and nor can quotas be exchanged. Then we should also remember the Cod War that almost erupted between UK and Iceland.
Norway has a heck of a lot of coastline and into fish farming in a big way. It apparently represents about 7% of all their exports.
In general I agree, there is nothing to stop managing it like they do. Assuming we do break-away then are we not likely to encroach on each others existing modus operandi. Especially around the North Sea?
Talking of BIA yet again, is there any plans on what they may be? Be good to know right? Perhaps during the transition period we can be getting ready. :idea:
counter_violent
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Cya later, thanks for nothing.
Don't let the door hit your ass on the way out.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42514117
Don't let the door hit your ass on the way out.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42514117
sminicooper
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Just a Blair Remainer – no great loss.
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Atilla
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So who's having a ‘nationalist spasm worthy of Donald Trump’ ???
Step forward plz :cheesy:
fwiw He was appointed by the Tories... I always think politicians who quit on principal should be admired. Shame there arn't more like him from the Tory party. I only remember Lord Carrington and one MP who resigned because he was gay, if I recall correctly. Heseltine got shafted for not pulling cabinet line. Tory party makes the Roman Senate look like they were playing child games.
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counter_violent
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Ere we go...cronyism at it's finest.
what has this ***wit ever done to deserve a knighthood!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42514116
what has this ***wit ever done to deserve a knighthood!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42514116
Atilla
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Another man of principal. He campaigned for his belief in the national interest to stop Brexit rather than get votes to save his seat and sadly he lost.
Top man he is! Well deserved imo.
Signalcalc
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