Brexit and the Consequences

[dbphoenix]

It appears that EU members are already adjusting, largely due to Trump's hostility and unpredictability. Be that as it may, GDP growth is to the East, not to the West. As Tom suggested, the UK could easily become irrelevant. As could the US, transitioning as we have from a manufacturing economy to a service economy to a whining economy.

 

[cantagril]

Everything changes and nothing stands still.
Tim.

"We are born into trouble as the sparks fly upward"

 

[Atilla]

Our USP is I believe an out-sized, politically favoured and agile financial services industry that far outweighs any such European centre.

BUT, if the EU decides it can stand the pain of temporary dislocation if all this is moved to e.g. Frankfurt, then our "bluff" fails.

Stand the pain???

They are falling over them selves trying to attract City business and relocations. :idea:

It's not just Euro Clearing but also EBA and EMA along with good many other institutions who will leave. Banks and companies will follow that's for sure.


That stupid TM talks much b0ll0cks about not showing her hand and how she'll walk. I'm afraid EU have nothing to fear from the Brexit negotiation and on the contrary will be hoping and aiding TM to run. Give her some skates to go along with her leather pants.

Might be considered hilarious but in reality it is so so sad it's not funny.

 

[tomorton]

Sadly, Brexit will be a gamble that in about 20 years time we MIGHT be better off than we would have been if we had stayed where we were.

It might work. But considering that where we were was the world's 5th largest economy, with impressive economic growth post-2008, with a rebounding housing market and strong growth in both manufacturing and services. We had increased growth forecasts, inflation dropping to a low of 1.6%, unemployment dropping to 6.8% plus growth in employment leading to an all-time high of 30.4 million. The UK had by far the best GDP growth figures in the G7 and in Europe.

All achieved despite the "burden" of EU membership.

Yet the government (a Conservative government!) asked us to vote if we shouldn't leave the EU. And we voted to say we should. This alone is a great reason why other countries should now ignore what the UK has to say about just about anything.

 

[dbphoenix]

It's hard to move from reigning over 25% of the world to not.

 

[Atilla]

Sadly, Brexit will be a gamble that in about 20 years time we MIGHT be better off than we would have been if we had stayed where we were.

It might work. But considering that where we were was the world's 5th largest economy, with impressive economic growth post-2008, with a rebounding housing market and strong growth in both manufacturing and services. We had increased growth forecasts, inflation dropping to a low of 1.6%, unemployment dropping to 6.8% plus growth in employment leading to an all-time high of 30.4 million. The UK had by far the best GDP growth figures in the G7 and in Europe.

All achieved despite the "burden" of EU membership.

Yet the government (a Conservative government!) asked us to vote if we shouldn't leave the EU. And we voted to say we should. This alone is a great reason why other countries should now ignore what the UK has to say about just about anything.

Pretty accurate description and agree to a large extent. Couple of points;

1. All achieved despite the "burden" of EU membership you say?

Well based on historical account and records, UK was the lagging man of Europe. one that was failing to keep up. EU has propelled UK forward not held her back in my informed opinion. EU is not a burden but a very successful free market framework and envy of the world.

EU could go up in smoke tomorrow and Germany / France / Italy / Spain will pretty much end up in the same place as before. Not much will change. I strongly suspect Germany will even maintain the Euro.

2. Even where you say UK might be better off we need to make a distinction if that is:

a) Because we will be able to perform so much better, or

b) Because European countries will fail

This is an important distinction to make. If case A then we need to do the leg work analysis as to how, what are we going to do different to our European competitors. As db says I haven't heard of any assessment as to what our USP is?

B is the stupid Brexit argument, we'll do so much better because Europe will fail. We may as well do nothing. How does European countries failing change our predicament whether we are in or out of EU as we are not in the Euro?


There is no justification or business case for leaving the EU as you rightly point out too.

Similarly, your post earlier on, touched on the original argument for the formation of the ESCC to keep an eye on Germany and check build up of her military.

The whole shenanigans is such a big stain on the UK international presence that I concur both the US and the UK have considerably shrunk in stature. Any military excursion now more likely to see nails in the coffin carried by eye watering national debt of both countries.

 

[timsk]

Hi Tom,

Sadly, Brexit will be a gamble that in about 20 years time we MIGHT be better off than we would have been if we had stayed where we were.

I doubt you'll have to wait that long. That's not to say we'll be doing better financially, but at least we won't be on the sinking EU ship. Even if the political union is still in tact, the monetary union in the form of the Euro will be long gone and the consequences of that for all those who signed up to it will be dire.

It might work. But considering that where we were was the world's 5th largest economy, with impressive economic growth post-2008, with a rebounding housing market and strong growth in both manufacturing and services. We had increased growth forecasts, inflation dropping to a low of 1.6%, unemployment dropping to 6.8% plus growth in employment leading to an all-time high of 30.4 million. The UK had by far the best GDP growth figures in the G7 and in Europe.

All achieved despite the "burden" of EU membership.

As you say, all this in spite of our EU membership - just think what we'll achieve when we leave!

Yet the government (a Conservative government!) asked us to vote if we shouldn't leave the EU. And we voted to say we should. This alone is a great reason why other countries should now ignore what the UK has to say about just about anything.

I don't understand your logic? If the U.K. does badly and the EU does well after we leave, then your supposition may have some truth in it. However, if the reverse happens and the U.K. goes from strength to strength while the cogs of the giant EU machine grind to a halt, then our influence and stature in the world - especially Europe - will grow immeasurably as a result.
Tim.

 

[tomorton]

Well Tim,I think the EU will indeed do pretty well. Nobody in Europe wants to see it fail. It will have a unified leadership under Germany, a stronger economy than ours, which has proven commitment to the EU project. Beyond that, to the US of E project, without our opposition/reservations/moderating influence. The USE will benefit our economy up to a point, but the EU is already really a trade protectionist club so the good times might be short-lived, and the USE will dwarf us politically outside the region.

The Euro zone might need to be split into two, but the political will is there and the EU could achieve any gymnastics to bolster the whole project.

Eventually, the UK should do pretty well economically from our new independence. But we will have undergone one-two decades of under-performance and political stagnation. And of course, the world doesn't stand still while we're getting there - we're going to look pretty silly if we find we've let the USE be enacted right next door and they decide to really turn the screws on the UK - join or else!

So we could find we have built a strong economy with the EU's help, then damaged it via Brexit, then spent 20 years re-building it, to enjoy just about 5 years of glory, then find we are coerced into joining the USE.

Of course, some might see a USE as a good thing. But they should have been EU-remainers, surely?

 

[Splitlink]

Well Tim,I think the EU will indeed do pretty well. Nobody in Europe wants to see it fail. It will have a unified leadership under Germany, a stronger economy than ours, which has proven commitment to the EU project. Beyond that, to the US of E project, without our opposition/reservations/moderating influence. The USE will benefit our economy up to a point, but the EU is already really a trade protectionist club so the good times might be short-lived, and the USE will dwarf us politically outside the region.

The Euro zone might need to be split into two, but the political will is there and the EU could achieve any gymnastics to bolster the whole project.

Eventually, the UK should do pretty well economically from our new independence. But we will have undergone one-two decades of under-performance and political stagnation. And of course, the world doesn't stand still while we're getting there - we're going to look pretty silly if we find we've let the USE be enacted right next door and they decide to really turn the screws on the UK - join or else!

So we could find we have built a strong economy with the EU's help, then damaged it via Brexit, then spent 20 years re-building it, to enjoy just about 5 years of glory, then find we are coerced into joining the USE.

Of course, some might see a USE as a good thing. But they should have been EU-remainers, surely?

The hard-line Brexiters will not give up, will they? I have given up on them, but I am sorry for the rest. It is as you say--there is a will, here, for the EU to work and, as long as that will exists, so will the EU.

I am observing the standard of life that my family has and am tranquil.

 

[timsk]

The hard-line Brexiters will not give up, will they? . . .

Errr, that cuts both ways Split', surely!

Well Tim, I think the EU will indeed do pretty well. Nobody in Europe wants to see it fail.

Hi Tom,
I hope the EU does well and I certainly don't want to see it fail. It's not in anyone's best interests for that to happen. I suspect most Brexiteers would agree with that, so pretty well everyone is of a like mind on this point at least. However, an important distinction needs to be made here. Namely, whilst nobody in Europe wants to see it fail, there are millions who would vote to leave the EU if they could. That's the key point, IMO. Just look at the unemployment figures - especially among youngsters - in countries like Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece. They make for grim reading. As and when these people wake up to the fact that the EU and the Euro isn't serving them at all well, expect rapid and momentous change. Personally, I hope the top brass in Europe will learn their lesson from Brexit and instigate major reforms to avoid the whole project coming apart at the seams. Sadly, thus far, there's no sign of that happening that I can see.
Tim.

 

[Splitlink]

Errr, that cuts both ways Split', surely!



Hi Tom,
I hope the EU does well and I certainly don't want to see it fail. It's not in anyone's best interests for that to happen. I suspect most Brexiteers would agree with that, so pretty well everyone is of a like mind on this point at least. However, an important distinction needs to be made here. Namely, whilst nobody in Europe wants to see it fail, there are millions who would vote to leave the EU if they could. That's the key point, IMO. Just look at the unemployment figures - especially among youngsters - in countries like Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece. They make for grim reading. As and when these people wake up to the fact that the EU and the Euro isn't serving them at all well, expect rapid and momentous change. Personally, I hope the top brass in Europe will learn their lesson from Brexit and instigate major reforms to avoid the whole project coming apart at the seams. Sadly, thus far, there's no sign of that happening that I can see.
Tim.

Well, the Brits have given it a try. However much I disliked de Gaulle for saying it, at the time, he was proved to be right, wasn't he?

Spain does have a right wing government, even though, it is in a minority. Their priority has, always, been to get the economy straight. This has led to a big unemployment problem, as you say, and cutbacks all over the place.

Our main problem, at present, is Cataluña, where we live. It is calling for a referendum on October 1 and the president says that if it is "Yes" he will take the region into independence within a couple of days.

Rajoy says "no way", so watch this space!

 

[Atilla]

Well, the Brits have given it a try. However much I disliked de Gaulle for saying it, at the time, he was proved to be right, wasn't he?

Spain does have a right wing government, even though, it is in a minority. Their priority has, always, been to get the economy straight. This has led to a big unemployment problem, as you say, and cutbacks all over the place.

Our main problem, at present, is Cataluña, where we live. It is calling for a referendum on October 1 and the president says that if it is "Yes" he will take the region into independence within a couple of days.

Rajoy says "no way", so watch this space!

I never like disunity and going back to my travels in Spain I always thought Catalonians were stuck up arrogant sods a little like the French and some English. :cheesy:

Much like the army how would you feel about shooting the deserters. One for all and all for one, that sort of tink.

 

[Atilla]

Brexodus

“It’s another milestone in what we call the Brexodus,” said Gildas Surry, who helps oversee about 1 billion euros ($1.1 billion) at Axiom Alternative Investments in London, including Deutsche Bank bonds and shares. “Every single continental European bank is working on plans to repatriate their trading and plumbing in their home cities. ”

 

[barjon]

Brexodus

“It’s another milestone in what we call the Brexodus,” said Gildas Surry, who helps oversee about 1 billion euros ($1.1 billion) at Axiom Alternative Investments in London, including Deutsche Bank bonds and shares. “Every single continental European bank is working on plans to repatriate their trading and plumbing in their home cities. ”

Maggie hung our future on the financial services industry washing line and her successors have pranced along and cut the rope. The washing's gonna get more than muddy.

As DB asked in an earlier post "what can we offer the world from U.K. And what does the world need from us". No surprise that he he hasn't had many answers because in the absence of financial services there's precious little else of global stature.

 

[Splitlink]

I never like disunity and going back to my travels in Spain I always thought Catalonians were stuck up arrogant sods a little like the French and some English. :cheesy:

Much like the army how would you feel about shooting the deserters. One for all and all for one, that sort of tink.

Not so, Atilla. I've always lived here and Catalans are the salt of the earth.

It as been obvious to me, that Madrid could, and should, have got to the bottom of this decades ago, bur successive governments have swept it under the carpet.

How do you explain, for example, how Cataluña has a toll on its motorways while Madrld's motorways are free? Or that the Sevilla-Madrid Ave was the first to be built but that the Barcelona connection to to France has, yet to be completed?

Little things, but they needle Cataluña, along with much more. Cataluña and The Basque Country are the economic powerhouses of Spain. Cataluñas hands all the taxes over to Madrid and Madrid gives back what it thinks.

Now the problem has got to this stage. Unlike the Scottish one, which was legal, this one goes against the constitution. I don't like it. I don't want it, and I see unpleasantness ahead in one form, or another.

 

[cantagril]

I never like disunity and going back to my travels in Spain I always thought Catalonians were stuck up arrogant sods a little like the French and some English. :cheesy:

Catalans on both sides of the border have not had a good time of it for many centuries. In Spain, their sufferings in the Civil war are still painful in the present day. Franco did his best to wipe out their culture, banned them from speaking their language and did his best to keep them poor and powerless. Now they've managed to overcome some of that in the 40 odd years since the Generalissimo cashed in his chips it would seem only reasonable that a large number of them might want to uncouple from the locomotive that's been hauling them very slowly to nowhere. The arrogance you detect might simply be resentment that Castillian speakers tend to use their own language by default even when common courtesy would suggest at least an attempt at Catalan.

Having lived north of the border (Languedoc) for quite a while I can attest that some of the above dynamic is the same...but yes, Parisians are certainly arrogant sods and often reviled in the provinces. And as for the English one need look no further tha the view of a semi-Scotsman writing in the Independant a few years back "They were smug, supercilious, hypocritical, bossy, colonising bullies and tricksters. When the oil came along, they were thieves, liars and cheats. When they voted for Thatcher, they cast Scotland into the seventh circle of hell. The English were the enemy."

Much like the army how would you feel about shooting the deserters. One for all and all for one, that sort of tink.

Pour encourager les autres?

 

[barjon]

That may be so dbp, but what I assume Jon meant - and to answer your question about what anyone needs from the U.K. - it's our money. The Germans want to sell us their cars and the French want to sell us their wine and cheese etc. As I said in my last post, not having our financial contribution will hurt. If, on top of that, we're not buying their products - that'll hurt even more. In short, the EU needs us every bit as much - if not more - than we need them.
Tim.

Tim

You did remind me that you had replied to db's question, but I have rather different take than you. I agree that people will be after our money and we will need to spend it given the scale of our imports. We can continue to live high on the hog until our money runs out or until we can replenish it by exports.

As I suggested in my last post we have little of global stature to generate those exports once you take financial services ( and maybe the car industry - if it stays here since we no longer own the vast bulk of it) out of the equation.

 

[timsk]

. . . Little things, but they needle Cataluña, along with much more. Cataluña and The Basque Country are the economic powerhouses of Spain. Spain's hands all the taxes over to Madrid and Madrid gives back what it thinks. . .

Hi Split',
Whether it's the Basque country's relationship with Spain's central government or the UK's relationship with the EU - the parallels are clear. As per my last post about the top brass in Brussels learning the lessons from Brexit, let's hope the politicians in Madrid are paying attention and do everything in their power to prevent Cataluña from going independent. My impression is that they almost certainly haven't/won't and that, sadly, the 'unpleasantness ahead' that you speak of is highly probable.

Playing this through, if Cataluña were to vote for independence then, presumably, they wouldn't be part of the EU and would need to apply to join. As our man on the ground as it were, what impact do you think this might have on the rest of Spain and its relationship with the Brussels? In other words, is it probable/improbable that Cataluña's independence would be a trigger for Spain to hold her own referendum on staying in or getting out of the EU?
Tim.

 

[tomorton]

Not so, Atilla. I've always lived here and Catalans are the salt of the earth.

It as been obvious to me, that Madrid could, and should, have got to the bottom of this decades ago, bur successive governments have swept it under the carpet.

How do you explain, for example, how Cataluña has a toll on its motorways while Madrld's motorways are free? Or that the Sevilla-Madrid Ave was the first to be built but that the Barcelona connection to to France has, yet to be completed?

Little things, but they needle Cataluña, along with much more. Cataluña and The Basque Country are the economic powerhouses of Spain. Spain's hands all the taxes over to Madrid and Madrid gives back what it thinks.

Now the problem has got to this stage. Unlike the Scottish one, which was legal, this one goes against the constitution. I don't like it. I don't want it, and I see unpleasantness ahead in one form, or another.

Isn't it more advantageous for a region like Cataluña to play the same game as the SNP? - always threatening independence but never achieving it?

Look at UKIP - as soon as they achieved what they wanted, independence from the EU, they were finished.

 

[counter_violent]

Tim

You did remind me that you had replied to db's question, but I have rather different take than you. I agree that people will be after our money and we will need to spend it given that scale of our imports. We can continue to live high on the hog until our money runs out or until we can replenish it by exports.

As I suggested in my last post we have little of global stature to generate those exports once you take financial services ( and maybe the car industry - if it stays here since we no longer own the vast bulk of it) out of the equation.

This goes to the crux of the problem, the same problem that the USA has identified. Globalisation, large economic protectionist blocks, businesses that think nothing of their civic responsibilities but are only concerned with the bottom line. Who needs this crap ! I certainly don't. This is no way for society to operate. It is unethical and those in power and in charge of large corporations are morally bankrupt.
People keep getting shafted by the system. We are at a turning point, what we need is political vision and more importantly, strong leadership.