Brexit and the Consequences

[counter_violent]

I agree mike. Although the EU cronies will be a darn site more worried this time next week if Ms. Le Pen is elected President of France. Properly kackin' themselves I reckon!
😆

I can't see her gaining enough votes tbh Tim. France is too far down the road to nowhere. Losing it's identity by the day.

 

[mike.]

Too much emotion...

They are not making it difficult but would you not agree that UK is asking for free market membership benefits whilst not conforming to directives, regulations and membership rules.

Be reasonable and play nice dude 😉

Rules can be rewritten, market access can be just that, no free movement of people just access to the market and financial passporting , it will benefit both sides , possibly theirs more than ours, but no...we must be punished for wanting to leave the cult, Off with their heads....😆


Anyway, the market is liking her firm stance, ftse up 46 on the open ...

 

[Atilla]

I can't see her gaining enough votes tbh Tim. France is too far down the road to nowhere. Losing it's identity by the day.

How can anyone lose their identity?

You sound like those mad Frenchmen who want to restrict playing English songs on French radio to protect their identity.

If you go to Mars do you stop being English?

 

[timsk]

What if Macron wins? 🙄

I can't see her gaining enough votes tbh Tim. France is too far down the road to nowhere. Losing it's identity by the day.

Yeah, I agree chaps, I can't see her winning either. Other than her stance on EU / Frexit, I don't like her brand of politics at all. My view is that it's only because of her anti EU views that she's got as far as she has. Legions of French men and women will vote for her based on this one single issue - just as I will probably vote Conservative next month for the first (and hopefully last) time in my life. I don't begin to understand why political parties in this country and France alike don't get behind Fr/Brexit. A middle of the road liberal outfit with an anti EU stance would have wiped the floor with both Macron and Le Pen by now.

Atilla - if Macron wins - and I expect he will, then the message from the French electorate is clear. Namely, that they don't like Le Pen's far right agenda enough to want her in power but, equally, they aren't at all happy with the EU. Macron can ignore that clear warning at his peril: we all know what happens when the French get a bit uppity!
😛
Tim.

 

[Atilla]

Yeah, I agree chaps, I can't see her winning either. Other than her stance on EU / Frexit, I don't like her brand of politics at all. My view is that it's only because of her anti EU views that she's got as far as she has. Legions of French men and women will vote for her based on this one single issue - just as I will probably vote Conservative next month for the first (and hopefully last) time in my life. I don't begin to understand why political parties in this country and France alike don't get behind Fr/Brexit. A middle of the road liberal outfit with an anti EU stance would have wiped the floor with both Macron and Le Pen by now.

Atilla - if Macron wins - and I expect he will, then the message from the French electorate is clear. Namely, that they don't like Le Pen's far right agenda enough to want her in power but, equally, they aren't at all happy with the EU. Macron can ignore that clear warning at his peril: we all know what happens when the French get a bit uppity!
😛
Tim.

You are totally off the ball mon ami.

70% of the population doesn't like her EU stance which is why she's shifted more ground then an earthquake zone measuring 10 on the Richter scale.

The left don't like her far right agenda but most of France realise she's just copying UK and US in hoping to get elected with that same old Bull story about making France great again and stopping terrorists flooding in to the country.

Bit like CV and his losing identity nonsense. It's a bunch of words with no particular meaning.

Take back control of your identities and be free...

 

[counter_violent]

Rules can be rewritten, market access can be just that, no free movement of people just access to the market and financial passporting , it will benefit both sides , possibly theirs more than ours, but no...we must be punished for wanting to leave the cult, Off with their heads....😆


Anyway, the market is liking her firm stance, ftse up 46 on the open ...

All this talk of deal making is just horse crap. There ain't gonna be any agreement down the line. Both sides can't even accept each others opening position, so we will waste months of banter back and forth before we spin the line that we are withdrawing from talks and they can all go swivvel. At that point, we will start to make progress on bilateral trade deals with the rest of the world. European countries of course, will be at the back of the queue ! 🙂

 

[timsk]

. . . At that point, we will start to make progress on bilateral trade deals with the rest of the world. European countries of course, will be at the back of the queue ! 🙂

Hi c_v,
That sounds okay if everyone falls into line. My understanding is that in the event that the U.K. puts two fingers up to the EU and no deal is struck, doing one-on-one bilateral trade deals with any of the remaining EU member countries could be tricky. The risk is that they won't talk to us because, if they do, Mr. Juncker and Mrs Merkel et al will smack their botties very hard indeed. And none of them will be willing to risk the pain and humiliation of that! Anyway, fear not, as David Davies has said on this morning's Today program that he's confident a deal can - and will - be struck.
Tim.

 

[mike.]

Yes , I heard that Tim, he did seem very confident about a deal and brushed off the exit figures that's being bounced around. I can see perfectly why the negotiating team don't want to give out updates on the talks when you see the negative spin from the media, no way should anything from that first meeting been leaked, it shows how they intend to play.

 

[Signalcalc]

It's all bluff and counter bluff, ping ponged by media speculation at this stage, it's wot sells papers innit.

Slow news week - Bank Holiday.

 

[cantagril]

I can't see her gaining enough votes tbh Tim. France is too far down the road to nowhere. Losing it's identity by the day.

Very interesting thread this.

Having spent most of the last thirty years living in a region of France that has increasingly supported Le Pen, I can categorically state that this support is due to the very same concerns that exist in Britain. Whilst France is not losing it's identity by any means, a large percentage of the population feels this to be completely true.

The Front National's showing at the last two elections is no more than a reflection of a disenchantment with their political system (or lack of it) and the feeling of impotence dealing with the EU....sentiments which must strike accord to many in the UK.

My concerns over Brexit are not that Britain may well suffer some adverse consequences from our own withdrawal but that our example to the French, the Italians, the Spanish...and yes, the Greeks - will provoke a drastic reworking of the EU at best and the destruction of the system at worst.

Whatever happens, I feel that there's a very good chance that by leaving the club we might actually be creating another one of which the UK should be a member or possibly a new European reality that will take decades of incertitude for the dust to settle and any attendant recession to be over.

It's going to be fun, just not the laughing kind.

 

[Splitlink]

Very interesting thread this.

Having spent most of the last thirty years living in a region of France that has increasingly supported Le Pen, I can categorically state that this support is due to the very same concerns that exist in Britain. Whilst France is not losing it's identity by any means, a large percentage of the population feels this to be completely true.

The Front National's showing at the last two elections is no more than a reflection of a disenchantment with their political system (or lack of it) and the feeling of impotence dealing with the EU....sentiments which must strike accord to many in the UK.

My concerns over Brexit are not that Britain may well suffer some adverse consequences from our own withdrawal but that our example to the French, the Italians, the Spanish...and yes, the Greeks - will provoke a drastic reworking of the EU at best and the destruction of the system at worst.

Whatever happens, I feel that there's a very good chance that by leaving the club we might actually be creating another one of which the UK should be a member or possibly a new European reality that will take decades of incertitude for the dust to settle and any attendant recession to be over.

It's going to be fun, just not the laughing kind.

The first hurdle will be the French elections. If it causes a Frexit, that will change the whole negotiatimg ball game, with regards to the UK, IMO.

 

[cantagril]

The first hurdle will be the French elections. If it causes a Frexit, that will change the whole negotiatimg ball game, with regards to the UK, IMO.

Absolutely....but on what time line?

Marine is yelping to get out NOW and Macron is talking about renegotiating. The middle ground there leaves the EU between two stools but it will take time for the French to engage any process of referendum particularly whilst centre stage is occupied by Brexit and one of their dilemmas will be to decide not only what but when....

The Germans certainly don't want to be shouldering (as they see it) the entire responsibility for holding together an increasingly shaky and costly edifice - They have their own right-wing "renegotiator" faction to consider and there are already loud enough noises about Brexit being the opportunity to rejig things; a French clamour for the same merely increases the risk that the two main pillars of the EU will either withdraw or start a process that will radically change what the current Union is all about - hence my previous comment about creating a club that Britain does want to be a part of.

For the record, I take the view that the British were conned into a membership of the EU without being told the conditions that went along with it and now they've been conned again on leaving it in exactly the same way. All we can hope for is the least bad outcome.

 

[Atilla]

Absolutely....but on what time line?

Marine is yelping to get out NOW and Macron is talking about renegotiating. The middle ground there leaves the EU between two stools but it will take time for the French to engage any process of referendum particularly whilst centre stage is occupied by Brexit and one of their dilemmas will be to decide not only what but when....

The Germans certainly don't want to be shouldering (as they see it) the entire responsibility for holding together an increasingly shaky and costly edifice - They have their own right-wing "renegotiator" faction to consider and there are already loud enough noises about Brexit being the opportunity to rejig things; a French clamour for the same merely increases the risk that the two main pillars of the EU will either withdraw or start a process that will radically change what the current Union is all about - hence my previous comment about creating a club that Britain does want to be a part of.

For the record, I take the view that the British were conned into a membership of the EU without being told the conditions that went along with it and now they've been conned again on leaving it in exactly the same way. All we can hope for is the least bad outcome.

Agree with much of what you say except for the last paragraph re: being conned.

First point, UK was lagging behind Europe countries since WWII, as they made economic gains in heaps and bounds. UK realised it was wrong to stay out and subsequently joined with reluctance from the French to accept UK membership.

EU has evolved for various reasons not the place to debate here - but UK was very much part of that evolutionary process and voted in kind. Much of the directives and regulations on farming and standards are down to the British.

Much of the friction on UK relations with EU is down to the Tories and Maggie Thatcher wanting to play second fiddle with John Major and signing of the Maastricht Treaty. This friction much like a scab has been infected by the Eurosceptics and further aggravated by UKIP and in fear of losing votes Cameron called a referendum. In fact Labour has historically been against membership of the EU.

So this conn you speak is more of a Tory politics and infighting.

Truth is that the British economy has thrived on migration, her economy has grown and developed well moving from 7th to 5th place in GDP league tables since joining the EU. Same goes for France.


The biggest conn is that somehow Maggie Thatcher single handled made UK great again. On the contrary she laid the seeds for the big bank deregulation and bust scenario, decimated UK manufacturing, sold national industries for a song to international companies, privatised natural monopolies as advised by the yanks and even got rid of Westland Helicopters to buy Skiorskies cheaper. She also released MP's to claim expenses at will to top up wages so it doesn't show up as inflation busting increases of 30% + when public sector is offered 1% if they were lucky.

 

[Splitlink]

Absolutely....but on what time line?

Marine is yelping to get out NOW and Macron is talking about renegotiating. The middle ground there leaves the EU between two stools but it will take time for the French to engage any process of referendum particularly whilst centre stage is occupied by Brexit and one of their dilemmas will be to decide not only what but when....

The Germans certainly don't want to be shouldering (as they see it) the entire responsibility for holding together an increasingly shaky and costly edifice - They have their own right-wing "renegotiator" faction to consider and there are already loud enough noises about Brexit being the opportunity to rejig things; a French clamour for the same merely increases the risk that the two main pillars of the EU will either withdraw or start a process that will radically change what the current Union is all about - hence my previous comment about creating a club that Britain does want to be a part of.

For the record, I take the view that the British were conned into a membership of the EU without being told the conditions that went along with it and now they've been conned again on leaving it in exactly the same way. All we can hope for is the least bad outcome.

I have an idea that we are talking about years. I'm, just, taking it step by step. A lot of the folk posting on this thread seem to think that they can tell EU to get stuffed. I don't think that things work like that, especially when it comes to making future agreements with nations that, already, have one with the EU.

I'm glad I'm not negotiating any of this. It is a case of being damned if you do and damned if you don't.

Conning the UK? I don't think so.

 

[cantagril]

Agree with much of what you say except for the last paragraph re: being conned.

First point, UK was lagging behind Europe countries since WWII, as they made economic gains in heaps and bounds. UK realised it was wrong to stay out and subsequently joined with reluctance from the French to accept UK membership.

EU has evolved for various reasons not the place to debate here - but UK was very much part of that evolutionary process and voted in kind. Much of the directives and regulations on farming and standards are down to the British.

Much of the friction on UK relations with EU is down to the Tories and Maggie Thatcher wanting to play second fiddle with John Major and signing of the Maastricht Treaty. This friction much like a scab has been infected by the Eurosceptics and further aggravated by UKIP and in fear of losing votes Cameron called a referendum. In fact Labour has historically been against membership of the EU.

So this conn you speak is more of a Tory politics and infighting.

Truth is that the British economy has thrived on migration, her economy has grown and developed well moving from 7th to 5th place in GDP league tables since joining the EU. Same goes for France.


The biggest conn is that somehow Maggie Thatcher single handled made UK great again. On the contrary she laid the seeds for the big bank deregulation and bust scenario, decimated UK manufacturing, sold national industries for a song to international companies, privatised natural monopolies as advised by the yanks and even got rid of Westland Helicopters to buy Skiorskies cheaper. She also released MP's to claim expenses at will to top up wages so it doesn't show up as inflation busting increases of 30% + when public sector is offered 1% if they were lucky.

I hear and understand what you say about UK politicians and when I said conned I meant the electorate with the politicians doing the conning. The UK has certainly benefitted from membership of the EU but there are issues which need to be addressed at a national level. Migration per se is neither "good" nor "bad" but how it is planned and managed is a different matter - when times are good, jobs plentiful and the infrastructure able to cope then not too much of a problem but when things go off the boil and there is no mechanism to do anything about it one can see why people aren't happy realising that control was given away.

The implications of joining the single market and all that went with it was not the deal as most people thought it to be. In the late 80s I had a really dire translation job which was reams and reams of semi-official stuff as to the future effects of membership of the EU with mind-numbing detail of how every facet of every thing would change in some way but what was presented to be voted on by the populace was considerably different.

This time around not even the politicians know what's going to happen so they are not only lying to the people but to themselves as well....or if you prefer: "making gross errors of omission" 🙂

 

[Atilla]

I have an idea that we are talking about years. I'm, just, taking it step by step. A lot of the folk posting on this thread seem to think that they can tell EU to get stuffed. I don't think that things work like that, especially when it comes to making future agreements with nations that, already, have one with the EU.

I'm glad I'm not negotiating any of this. It is a case of being damned if you do and damned if you don't.

Conning the UK? I don't think so.

You have a better handle on this then our UK citizens.

To think UK can do bilateral deals with EU 27 countries is ludicrous. Why negotiate individual deals with member states with all the supporting apparatus that goes to supporting that agreement when you can have just one.

People have forgotten the original business case for the single market.

There is only WTO left which is what the rest of the World uses. As most businesses will tell you that is about the worst outcome. It'll raise costs for all businesses who will pass on as further price increases and see export of jobs.

Trade with rest of the World has geographical distance and as well as standards and the whole aspect of making / negotiating and supproting new deals. Not cheap, efficient or desirable.

But hey if the trust worthy Tories conn you into believing their tripe, knock your selves out. 👍

 

[barjon]

You have a better handle on this then our UK citizens.

To think UK can do bilateral deals with EU 27 countries is ludicrous. Why negotiate individual deals with member states with all the supporting apparatus that goes to supporting that agreement when you can have just one.

People have forgotten the original business case for the single market.

There is only WTO left which is what the rest of the World uses. As most businesses will tell you that is about the worst outcome. It'll raise costs for all businesses who will pass on as further price increases and see export of jobs.

Trade with rest of the World has geographical distance and as well as standards and the whole aspect of making / negotiating and supproting new deals. Not cheap, efficient or desirable.

But hey if the trust worthy Tories conn you into believing their tripe, knock your selves out. 👍

Give it up Atilla, mon brave. You can only try to fight fantasy with fact for so long - just let the dreamers dream and make up their own romantic endings.

 

[counter_violent]

You have a better handle on this then our UK citizens.

To think UK can do bilateral deals with EU 27 countries is ludicrous. Why negotiate individual deals with member states with all the supporting apparatus that goes to supporting that agreement when you can have just one.

People have forgotten the original business case for the single market.

There is only WTO left which is what the rest of the World uses. As most businesses will tell you that is about the worst outcome. It'll raise costs for all businesses who will pass on as further price increases and see export of jobs.

Trade with rest of the World has geographical distance and as well as standards and the whole aspect of making / negotiating and supproting new deals. Not cheap, efficient or desirable.

But hey if the trust worthy Tories conn you into believing their tripe, knock your selves out. 👍

Nobody mentioned doing deals with the 27 others 🙂
As far as i'm concerned, they will be at the back of the Queue👍
We will see how long it takes them to break ranks and come knocking at the door, desperate to do business !:smart:

PS. It's not just Tories who are sceptical about the whole EU fiasco and given that we now have 40+ yrs of evidence, then the popular vote to leave is well justified i'd say.

PPS. Yes Maggie did save the UK. Just a pity she didn't go the whole hog and get us out of the flawed EU in the 80's.

PPPS. UK is once again liberating Europe. In time this will be written into history. 🙂

Anyway, all you remoaners can spend the next few yrs quietly reflecting on the total disaster that is the EU. 😆

 

[Signalcalc]

I guess we do hold a strong hand:

Brussels admits it faces crisis if UK refuses Brexit bill

http://dailym.ai/2qADaBr

 

[cantagril]

I guess we do hold a strong hand:

Brussels admits it faces crisis if UK refuses Brexit bill

http://dailym.ai/2qADaBr

The EU is a mess. The UK is a mess - on both political and economic levels.

Any rapid political change (i.e measured in months) generally gets referred to as a "revolution", whether the streets run with blood, or not. Belief that a revolution rather than incremental change is going to bring about an equally rapid solution or at least improvement is somewhat optimistic.

The economies of the EU countries will all suffer from the imminent turbulence, not least the Germans. I would therefore suggest that the UK be looking further afield for trading partner salvation. As this looks increasingly unlikely to be coming from Washington and Neasden just doesn't make the cut, then presumably those who pretend to guide the citizenry are looking to Beijing, Moscow, Tehran, Minsk, Ulan Bator, Lesotho, Bhutan usw.

....and I nearly forgot: PyongYang, of course!