Bob Volman Price Action Scalping

[BLS]

Hey BLS, should I be comparing the pullback to the initial move from where it breaks the range, or from the top of the last arc before it breaks the range?

I think the top of the last arch, sort of like the last swing high. If you're wondering how Volman does it, he pretty much just eyeballs it (see attached picture).

 

[vanica]

HI,

I agree that second DD had better chance for success in terms of location in a trend. But what about the low formed by the first pullback, isn't it an additional obstacle prices need to surpass on the way to 10pip target? I thought that the risk of a false breakout was too high.

Thanks.

 

[BLS]

HI,

I agree that second DD had better chance for success in terms of location in a trend. But what about the low formed by the first pullback, isn't it an additional obstacle prices need to surpass on the way to 10pip target? I thought that the risk of a false breakout was too high.

Thanks.

I did not even think of that at the time. It's possible that there would be some support around that area but I don't think that "cluster" was big enough to worry about; prices did go past it without any trouble in the second with-trend move. I guess it depends if you were willing to take that risk of that "cluster" being support. You're risking about 5 pip on that trade which is pretty good since you can be wrong two times for every time you are right and break even.

 

[bling23]

Hi all
just had a failed trade. Wanted to see everyone's opinion.

I was trying for an IRB.
In the range, there was 2 distinct low, and i felt there was a 'squeeze' because of the lower highs and a sudden surge of higher lows.

When the higher lows suddenly failed downwards, I guess i entered into a classic false break trap, but i got in anyways, and there was some struggle before I was stopped out of the BB.

My question is: was my analysis of the 'struggle/squeeze' right?

I felt that there were bears trying to push it down, but a surge in euphoria from the bulls. but I felt that these bulls, especially those who bought at 1.234 upwards would retreat seeing the failed upwards momentum.

 

[vanica]

I mean maybe if this DD setup appeared in a strong trend, previous low wouldn't matter much. But as I see it on the chart, the whole down move looks more like a spike in a trading range. One could possibly view it as a breakout and a start of a new trend, but considering there was no proper retest higher, taking such a with-trend trade feels a bit too aggressive.

 

[stehlikpetrmsncom]

View attachment 142698

Last week we were talking about false DDs coming right after a range break. They didn't work out because the market wasn't truly trending or the RB had not been retested. This morning there were a couple good DD setups after a downward break was not retested (although this wasn't really a tradeable RB setup. Stop-loss isn't economical, no real push before the barrier break, plus ranging action right below it to the left). I skipped the first DD although it was definitely the most valid of the three. The market had dropped 15 pip as opposed to what we saw last week, where an RB broke south by 5-8 pips, came back and formed a DD, but a couple pips below the range barrier (it did not retest the range barrier to to the pip). In this case, the downward break was so powerful that it probably negated the need for a retest. It would have scared too many bulls away, and it broke far enough south that it would be a serious feat for it to climb back into that range. The counter trend was uniform and each candlestick was smaller than the candlesticks in the initial downtrend. But nevertheless, I didn't take the first setup because I was still trying to weigh whether or not this was going to be a false DD again. I did get in on the 2nd DD there, which traveled 8 pip and then reversed. I got out for a 3 pip gain at the X, where my tipping point was breached. That DD is inferior to the first setup. It's not as uniform and it backs up into the first setup instead of using it as support. Almost didn't take it, but the market was in an obvious downtrend at that point (although signs pointed to the trend slowing down). I almost exited when it got to 8 pip but decided that would be a bad habit to form and stuck to Volman's tipping point rules. That last arrow looked to me like an SB but I was already in the DD at a better price.

So despite not having a retest of the range, I felt like this DD should have been taken. It's a good example of what we were talking about last week, whether or not we can take trending setups after an RB or not, although this trend was short-lived.

Hi, I traded the same way, I took the first DD because it provided excellent odds, you can hardly ask for a better setup. I would have taken the second DD too, but I was already in a position. The third arrow (SB?) I would be really cautious about because it looks more like chasing the price ( + the second move in the trend surpassed previous low too little) than an actual SB setup, but couldn't really argue with anyone taking it.

In my posts I am not going to talk about results of the trades because it is not important at all whether or not a single trade made profits, but in this instance I am curious, did you hit PT with the first DD? I missed it by one or two pipettes

 

[stehlikpetrmsncom]

Hi all
just had a failed trade. Wanted to see everyone's opinion.

I was trying for an IRB.
In the range, there was 2 distinct low, and i felt there was a 'squeeze' because of the lower highs and a sudden surge of higher lows.

When the higher lows suddenly failed downwards, I guess i entered into a classic false break trap, but i got in anyways, and there was some struggle before I was stopped out of the BB.

My question is: was my analysis of the 'struggle/squeeze' right?

I felt that there were bears trying to push it down, but a surge in euphoria from the bulls. but I felt that these bulls, especially those who bought at 1.234 upwards would retreat seeing the failed upwards momentum.

Hi, I was thinking about taking this trade but then decided not to.

I saw the squeeze being very attractive as well, but the block consists of lower highs, which look weird. And don't forget there is some serious chart resistance to the left - there could be enough space for 10 pip, but who knows, the resistance is formed by various highs and not by a single line.

I was also thinking that if this was an IRB and therefore we were looking at a range, there would be some more sellers willing to sell at the barrier zone, which so far had only few touches, so I wasn't going to trade the IRB as you did, I wanted to wait for at least 2 more touches-dojis at the barrier, trading something mid-between IRB and RB with little squeeze (which would come mainly from the IRB).

 

[samich1262]

I didn't take the IRB, I didn't think it was valid. If it formed right on the 1.235 level, maybe I would have taken it. The move directly to the left before it, having a higher low, seemed too bullish to take a short on an IRB. That IRB you were looking at formed using it as support, and I thought that made it invalid. I was actually looking at the move right before it as a possible IRB, but I skipped it because I thought it lacked pressure. There's a similar setup in the book except that before this, there's a double bottom at the lows of the range instead of a single bottom that we have on this chart. If I'd seen a double bottom before it, I would have taken it, but since it didn't, I skipped over it. I couldn't see a clear winner at that point.

I saw DD's like that first one work out 3 times in the last 2 weeks, so I have been keeping an eye on them to see if that's really a valid setup or if I'm stretching it. The most difficult thing for me right now is Volman states that there will almost always be some sort of resistance on the way to a target, and most of the time I'm still looking for textbook setups.

I heard on the news a few minutes ago that yesterday was the lightest volume trading day of the year. Hopefully this summer slump is almost over, I prefer a faster market. I guess I don't like suspense being in a trade for a long time!

 

[stehlikpetrmsncom]

I saw DD's like that first one work out 3 times in the last 2 weeks, so I have been keeping an eye on them to see if that's really a valid setup or if I'm stretching it.

I really can't think of any reason to not take this trade. It's very valid!

Bearish:

1/ Strong, newly born trend that initiated from range.
2/ The range from which the trend initiated has seen a failed break to the upside, consequently few lower highs and THEN we got ourselves the trend. So the downside move wasn't odd at all, it made sense in (chart) technical terms.
2/Pullback is all gren dojis.
3/ Setup is only two pip high (=5pip risk)
4/ No chart resistance to the left.
5/ No scary round numbers below.

Bullish:

1/ Nothing.

 

[virtuesoft]

Hi, I traded the same way, I took the first DD because it provided excellent odds, you can hardly ask for a better setup. I would have taken the second DD too, but I was already in a position. The third arrow (SB?) I would be really cautious about because it looks more like chasing the price ( + the second move in the trend surpassed previous low too little) than an actual SB setup, but couldn't really argue with anyone taking it.

In my posts I am not going to talk about results of the trades because it is not important at all whether or not a single trade made profits, but in this instance I am curious, did you hit PT with the first DD? I missed it by one or two pipettes

I took the first DD too and it met the target of 10 pips. What is your broker like? Are the spreads fair or did you get slipped on the entry?

 

[Mark1979]

Hi guys,

Just came across this thread. Some great discussion. I have just ordered the Volman book as from what I can gather, it seems to confirm a lot of what I have been doing myself.

I trade the 1 minute as opposed to the 70 tick but the charts are similar. I also use the 100 EMA to identify trend (this is the 5 minute 20 EMA).

Inside bars (or series of inside bars - or 'near' inside bars) at break out S/R zones where there has been a momentum move have the best chance of success (plus I only play them once they have broken the mother bar and this must happen on the next candle.

2 nice trades on Euro today (there were others on the Aussie...). Hope you can view my attachment, not posted in a while...

Hope to get involved in some of the discussion...

Cheers,

Mark

 

[Mark1979]

...thought I would quickly upload the Aussie trades...

Cheers,

Mark

 

[stehlikpetrmsncom]

I took the first DD too and it met the target of 10 pips. What is your broker like? Are the spreads fair or did you get slipped on the entry?

I use Oanda, the spread is 1-1.2 on EURUSD. Frankly I didn't find any other retail broker to go along with this strategy (spread, fast execution, always-on-top 1 click trading). Which broker do you use? Maybe you were quicker on the entry, I'll take it as a lesson that milisecond count

 

[Mark1979]

I use Oanda, the spread is 1-1.2 on EURUSD. Frankly I didn't find any other retail broker to go along with this strategy (spread, fast execution, always-on-top 1 click trading). Which broker do you use? Maybe you were quicker on the entry, I'll take it as a lesson that milisecond count

You should use LMAX. I am using Pathfinder Fastbrokers platform to trade them. Excellent. You can single click market orders and double click mouse for stop and limit orders direct from chart. Instant execution. No requotes.

Spread on Euro is typically 0.3 pips, Aussie about the 0.4 pips. Commission is approx 0.6 pips (and less for aussie) round turn (2.5$ per million), always less than a pip in all during london/ny. Open an account for $2,500.

FX Trading | Forex Trading | CFD Trading | LMAX Exchange
DMA to LMAX - Access LMAX exchange with PathFinder Trader™ - LMAX Trading - FastBrokers
FX Intelligence Analyzer: Compare live spreads and quotes from multiple brokers

Hope this helps.

M

 

[stehlikpetrmsncom]

...

Hi Mark, that is some interesting reading! I was thinking about LMAX but they have minimum deposit of 10,000$. However it seems it is only 2,500$ through that Fastbrokers which if I understand it correctly is an introducing broker. So do they get a pipette or two from your comissions or how does it work? Still, it sounds like a very good deal. I'll look into it, thanks!

 

[Mark1979]

Hi Mark, that is some interesting reading! I was thinking about LMAX but they have minimum deposit of 10,000$. However it seems it is only 2,500$ through that Fastbrokers which if I understand it correctly is an introducing broker. So do they get a pipette or two from your comissions or how does it work? Still, it sounds like a very good deal. I'll look into it, thanks!

Hi mate, no problem. No Fastbrokers don't take anything else.

You will be able to open an account directly with LMAX with $2,500 if you ask but I prefer Pathfinder platform to Multicharts anyway.

It seems LMAX want to give the perception of only wanting larger retail clients. You can actually trade LMAX via MT4 through Armada Markets with even lower commission of $20 per $m. You can download one clicker software if you are prepared to use this platform (execution speed not nearly as good via mt4 though). This is a discussion re: Volman so I don't want to hijack the thread. Will hopefully post some charts at the end of the day...

M

 

[virtuesoft]

I use Oanda, the spread is 1-1.2 on EURUSD. Frankly I didn't find any other retail broker to go along with this strategy (spread, fast execution, always-on-top 1 click trading). Which broker do you use? Maybe you were quicker on the entry, I'll take it as a lesson that milisecond count

I use a currenex broker called London Capital Group. http://www.lcgfx.com/

The spreads on EURUSD are anything from 0.1 to 0.4 pips during the London/New York session. I have attached a screenshot of my spreads this morning. This includes EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, AUDUSD & EURCHF.

The commission costs are $15 USD per million each way, which ends up adding another 0.3 pips to each trade.

The only disadvantage is that the minimum deposit is $20,000 USD and the minimum trade size is 100,000.

 

[Mark1979]

Quick scalp on euro:

 

[Mark1979]

Quick scalp on euro:

...and another....

 

[virtuesoft]

Did anyone else take this Range Break setup on EURUSD?

I ended up with a loss of 3.3 pips but I'm fairly happy with the trade. It seemed to be a valid setup and I managed it well enough.