Belflan's US stock swing trades




no one can predict the market....no one. not even grey................

belfan, no offence as i'm in a very simialr position to you and want to go live with this soon, but when you go live will you be happy enough with the returns your showing so far on 30k?


grey i take it your of course your still bear, does this mean another excellent possible entry on this spike up?


jason
 
no one can predict the market....no one. not even grey................

ok..

belfan, no offence as i'm in a very simialr position to you and want to go live with this soon, but when you go live will you be happy enough with the returns your showing so far on 30k?

no offence taken..

you don't really know my position..

Patience..

regards
Glen
 
just in,

short portfolio running total = $851

will try and exit VMED tonight (now over sold)

INDU MACCI day now -95, so may close soon O/S

UNPQ getting into o/s area

Exit on VMED (oversold) @ 14.35 trade profit = $659

Trading a bit blind tonight (IT prob's) no TS2ki

Glen
 
Running total

Running total = +$938

should go to bed soon, early flight in the morning (crapy job!)

Glen
 
when you go live will you be happy enough with the returns your showing so far on 30k?
jason

I think you need to take a couple of things into account when assessing belflan's performance.

First, the broad market down move since around Feb 1st has not been especially strong. Unless you get really lucky, your results will be proportionate to the broad market.

Second, picking the best stocks from Greys list will depend on experience.

According to belflan's latest post his return is about 3% on his notional 30K. That's about 6% per month which compounds to around 100% PA. Most people would consider that to be not half bad at all.

I have been tracking a number of portfolios of short candidates - grey's and some of my own and they all have fallen (high to low) by between 5% and 10% over this period. If you can capture most of that, it's all you need to do very well.
 
...
Second, picking the best stocks from Greys list will depend on experience.

According to belflan's latest post his return is about 3% on his notional 30K. That's about 6% per month which compounds to around 100% PA. Most people would consider that to be not half bad at all.

...

I agree. Even my amateurish attempts have posted a return similar to Glen's. And this with a pre-determined risk - no gangster trading for quick bucks. Very happy.
The key variable that will improve returns for me are correct stock selection, portfolio diversification and entry.

Keep up the good work here!

Jonathan
 
The key variable that will improve returns for me are correct stock selection, portfolio diversification and entry.

Keep up the good work here!

Jonathan


Spot on Jdbzero... This is the secret of wealth,,

The weak list I compiled with FIBBO goes back to SEP last year.. Stocks from SEPT to DEC fell around 30% on average other wise the return on your portfolio would have been much much higher,,, Stocks that approach their book value show less tendency to move lower and we are not having much luck now a days with short term market direction ...



The secret of wealth is this .. Pick weak stocks by their fundamentals ( I probably point out on how to pick them up during the next seminar ) .. let them run , no adding to position ,, no reducing position no reversing no nothing except taking a position when MACCI is OB and closing when MACCI is OS or when ever the stock hits it s target ,, which ever comes first,

Day trading is gangster trading ,, risks are high so is robbing the bank but the reward is high for those who dare and have the psychology to do the job.

I am going to show you how to intra day trade for profit but whether you can make it as a profitable intra day trader that I don’t know because you need to have the correct psychology . DONOT MISS THE SEMINAR IF YOU ARE AFTER DAY TRADING AS A CAREER

Just the last word on swing trading ,, look for stocks that miss their earnings big time and short them when their MACCI is OB which means not on the same day that they report earnings. give them few days and BINGO .. guys It cannot be simpler than this ,, I am not asking you to solve a differential equation of nth order ,, just loads of common sense . Use your knowledge of TA for ENTRY and POSITION SIZE, Diversify and you be very very wealthy man . Use intra day trading to offset your losses on a bad for your swing . This is what we do ,,,This is what you should do ,,

QUIZ:-- Why did AAPL fall 45% from its high in such a short term ? if you have the answer to this simple quiz you are on your way to become a trader business man and not a gangster trader



iraj
 
QUIZ:-- Why did AAPL fall 45% from its high in such a short term ? if you have the answer to this simple quiz you are on your way to become a trader business man and not a gangster trader

iraj
  • Logically - Apple was a huge momentum stock for 2007 and people extremly bullish. 4th Qtr results are the news where the stock did not go higher. Selling into the news with weak retail investors and other longs creating the vacuum.
  • Fundamentally - apple does not have a diverse product portfolio and is extremely at risk to the consumer recession in progress. Earnings forcasts are lower ahead.
  • Technically - oversold with MACCI turning down on daily and weekly cycle


Jonathan
 
Running Total

Running Total = $837

15 hours travel today, for a 2 hour meeting

not happy
 
  • Logically - Apple was a huge momentum stock for 2007 and people extremly bullish. 4th Qtr results are the news where the stock did not go higher. Selling into the news with weak retail investors and other longs creating the vacuum.
  • Fundamentally - apple does not have a diverse product portfolio and is extremely at risk to the consumer recession in progress. Earnings forcasts are lower ahead.
  • Technically - oversold with MACCI turning down on daily and weekly cycle


Jonathan

spot on ,,, really good.. I am pleased to read this post..
 
Running Total = $1,862


Glen


Well done,, My boys are also doing well.. If you was in wrong stocks you would probably have been wiped by now,,, When the market went against you your losses was not as much as when the market went for you Hence your WINNINGS.
Lets see how much you make by the end of FEB,,,

I am still bear till further notice
 
Well done,, My boys are also doing well.. If you was in wrong stocks you would probably have been wiped by now,,, When the market went against you your losses was not as much as when the market went for you Hence your WINNINGS.
Lets see how much you make by the end of FEB,,,

I am still bear till further notice
Another good day for the bears and an awesome day with the new member added to SKYP group GLEN ( Not belflan ) ..


grey1
 
running total

I've been having a few IT prob's (which are almost sorted) therefore I don't have the MACCI to guide me. Have still got 9 shorts open no change tonight

running total = $2,109

not sure were the INDU MACCI daily is???
 
I've been having a few IT prob's (which are almost sorted) therefore I don't have the MACCI to guide me. Have still got 9 shorts open no change tonight

running total = $2,109

not sure were the INDU MACCI daily is???

Nice going Glen
INDU MACCI daily is 47.97

Glenn
 
Nice going Glen
INDU MACCI daily is 47.97

Glenn

Thanks Glenn,

yes, one thing I've noticed is that many of these trades ran against me at the start, however i doubt many will be exited at a loss.

Daily market MACCI still on our side
cheers
Glen
 
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