Best Thread BBmac's Gbpusd thread

[bbmac]

Fri 4th Dec 09

Cable re-tested the area of the asian/overnight low to find demand there and a run up past the 38.2% of the that fall from y/day's 6720 hi...4hr made a L below the last 2 x Hl off the HH @ 6720 in it's recent uptrend. On 1hr the 100sma like the 200sma is now above (just) the 200sma and this t/f is effectively ranging at the moment.

The current 1hr t/f insofar as obvious near-term potential supp/res factors is concerned is below;

U.s data (as discussed in a post above) later.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

5min uptrend

The move up off the asian/overnight low has seen a 5min uptrend devlop as the macd signal lines to 1hr also began to point north...the pullback to the previous 5min swing hi = prev res=potential rbs @ a HL created a 1min hidden-divergence based Re-entry (to next higher t/ftrend after a pullback) set-up that has seena new Hh in that 5min uptrend ensue. Screencaps below are self explanatory;

Rumour on wires of significant £ demand to hit market at 11am gmt ??

G/L

 

[bbmac]

5min Re-entry to 30min upmove after the pullback from 6640

Using the 6518 asian/overnight L as the starting point, 30min has seen that LL, a LH, HL, H and at a HL the 5min developed a hidden-div based Re-entry (to 30min trend after a pullback) set-up timed as a 1min trigger t/f Rregular bullish div Reversal set-up...the 5min set-up is shown below

It came @ a L on that t/f, coinciding with a HL on that 30min into whose upmove-not overall price action uptrend the re-entry set-up indicated a hi-probability opportuunity to get 'with trend' or should L say more accurately 'with move' although it was @ a 2nd HL position on 30min With it's macd signal line crossed above it's zero axis and 1hr to Daily t/f pointing up. It has not seen a 'with trend' follow thru to a new HH, correct at time of writing.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Current 4hr

The current 4hr chart in respect of near-term obvious potential supp/res factors is below. The red/blue zones are co-existant as prev swing hi/lo's on Daily t/f and the main solid yellow unbreeched fib lines relate to the recent main 5707-6876 swing.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

What was the potential resistance at 6640??

I had a 1min and 5min regular bearish divergence based Reversal set-up @ the recent 6640 Hi (5min shown below) but as I could not identify the potential resistance I rejected the set-up which did play out for a nice pip gain as it happened. Mni had talked about offers 6620/30 the 6645/50 and as price seemed to go above the prev 1hr/4hr swing lo=prev support=potential sbr zone, I decided to sit it out as a trigger without potential supp/res/sbr/rbs is only part of the confluence needed and it is not triggers that move a market but potential supp/res zones.

Generally bullish so far this London session, with major U.s data due later as Uk Ons say Q3 gdp likely to be revised up by 0.2% from that previously revised -0.3%

G/L

 

[bbmac]

With volatility comes opportunity (possibly!,)..U.s Nfp soon.

Extending trading session today for U.s Nfp data due soon. Cable makes a HH @ 6666 in the 5min uptrend,and with U.s Nfp just about 25mins away, better than expected Canadian employment numbers giving hopes of a better than forecast u.s Number (s.)

Dependant on broker spread, price action response and set-ups, my preferred post data release action would be to

a. Sell first hi, buy first pullback HL
b. Buy first lo, sell first pullback LH

Will see what develops. Will be flat going into the data.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Post Nfp reaction

Best headline # since Nov 2007 as -11k is released against -190k previous (positive revision to -139k) and forecast of -120k, Unemp rate down to 10.0% from 10.2%, and manuf jobs -41k from -61k prev and -48k forecast...strange price action on the release but after a few minutes some sustained $ buying re gbpusd pairing (They had to sell $ eventually on these numbers, didn't they !? Lol.)

Did join the $ buying momentum on close of the 1min bearish thrust engulfing candle marked as a. with macd signal lines pointing down to 1hr t/f. then the first reversal set-up came at point b, no supporting 5min set-up and only pre-identified potential supp/rbs was the 61.8% of the intraday rise 6518-6670...Mni suggesting bids @ 6660/50, stronger at 6520.

No decent Re-entry set-up from which to sell the first pullback LH as only hidden-div on the osma oscillator on the pullback at point c so am flat now and finishing here for day/week....wishing I had sold again, lol.

More u.s data later.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Demand at 1hr ascending trend line

Just as I was beginning to power down, the following 1min regular bullish divergence based Reversal set-up (with supporting 5min osc extremes/cci hook based Reversal Extreme set-up) developed at the potential support of the ascending 1hr potential support trend line...nice trade to finish with.

the 1hr ascending support t/line is shown below

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Mon 7th Dec 09

The pullback from post Nfp/Friday lows @ 6420 halted at the 38.2% 6667-6420 (Friday Hi-Lo) as London begins selling following an asian/overnight and pullback Hi off Friday's Lo at that 38.2% fib @ 6515.

The current 1hr t/f in respect of near-term obvious potential supp/res factors is as shwon below.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

strong move down off pullback H

Strong sell off results as London sells from the open @ 6520 pullback Hi from Friday's 6420 Low - 38.2% of Friday's Hi-Lo move. Price has breeched the 1hr and 4hr ascending trend lines.

Nice 5min Bearish thrust candles to get involved with the trend/move/momentum as shown below:

The current 1hr chart in respect of near-term obvious potential supp/res factors is below and the blue zone below current price is co-existant as a previous obvious near-term swing lo on both 4hr and daily t/f. Currently price finding some support @ Wkly S1 pivot (not shown on screenshot below.)

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Daily t/f view

The Daily t/f screenshot below shows the next potential support zone (previous swing lo=previous support=potential support) on this t/f beklow current price. This zone is also co-exisstant on the 4hr t/f and from the LL on the 1hr t/f. The most recent ascending potential support trend line has been breeched (wide grey dotted) and there is another ascending potential support trend line on this t/f joining the lows of 11th march with 13th october (narrow grey dotted) that runs through this prev swing lo zone on the Daily t/f.

Price of course has yet to test the zone again but it is in a downtrend on this Daily t/f with 2 x LH now suggesting a better chance of a downside breech should it do so,?.. although I would not be surprised to see some buyers emerge there.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Extended Daily t/f view

Looking a bit more closely at the current Daily t/f in respect of near-term obvious potential support factors below current price and other than those mentioned in above post and below that zone mentioned, there is the previous swing hi=previous res=potential sbr zone and below that a previous swing lo=prev supp=potential support zone that is co-existant on the Weekly t/f. The fibs shown are the swings to current Yearly hi 0f 7044 from current Yearly Lo 3505 and 3647. The grey dotted lines are the unbreeched fibs of the 5707-6876swing.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Tues 8th Dec 09

Cable has given back over 76.4% of yesterday's recovery off 6312 lo in an overnight/asian session sell-off continued by the London open.

Eraly London session sees a perfect 1min Re-entry (to higher t/f-5min downtrend after a pullback) set-up developed @ the potential SBR of the 5min previous swing Lo zone shown in screenshot below:

The 1min hidden-divergence based re-entry set-up is here:

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Price enters a potential suppport zone

Price enters the previous swing lo=previous support=potential support zone on 1hr, co-existant as an obvious near-term prev swing lo on 4hr...and a regular bullish divergence based Reversal set-up develops on 1 and 5min at area of Weekly S1 pivot in that zone...1min trigger shown below

Note the double regular immediate [seperate valley] bullish divergence in the osma oscillator;

The 1hr prev swing lo zone is here:

Price already @ 81% of the 20day average pip range today with Uk data due later.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Current 1hr view

The 1hr t/f in respect of near-term obvious potential main support/resistance factors is below;
Under the lowest blue zone shown on screenshot, and potential support factors are shown on Daily chart posted yesterday.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

4hr

4hr is in an overall price action (opa)-peak/valley analysis downtrend although it's 100sma is still above it's 200sma. 1hr from yesterday's recovery H has seen a HL, LH, HL, LH and the L @ the current intraday Lo in that 1hr/4hr potential support zone discussed in posts above here...so a less convincing opa downtrend with it's 100sma similarly still above it's 200sma.

 

[bbmac]

Trading Plan

My Daily trading plan is very simple;

1. Look for a repeating regular divergence/osc extremes based Reversal (contra trend) set-up and individual price action trigger on 1min, @ pre-identified potential supp/res/sbr/rbs zones on 1hr t/f...looking also for the confluence of said supporting Reversal set-ups on t/f's above the 1min trigger and the confluence of potential support/resistance factors on 1hr t/f and above.

2. Look for repeating hidden-divergence based Re-entry (to higher t/f opa trend after a pullback) set-ups with individual price action trigger @ pre-identified potential sbr/rbs on that higher t/f. ie either

i. a 1min Re-entry set-up into 5min [+] trend @ 5min potential sbr/rbs
-or-
ii a 5min Re-entry set-up into 30min [+] trend @ 1hr potential sbr/rbs (with entry timed as a 1min Reversal set-up if one develops/co-exists with 5min Re-entry set-up)

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Resistance at 38.2% asian hi-current intraday lo

Extended pullback off 6325 and Mni were touting offers around 6380 and that is where the 5min Re-entry (to higher t/f trend after a pullback) set-up developed timed as a 1min Reversal set-up (0838 1min Rev A.) The 5min Re-entry set-up came @ a H but that H being @ a LH on 30min into whose downtrend (?) the 'with trend' entry after the pullback was indicated...30min macd signal line crossed below it's axis and 1hr+ pointing down at entry...

The hidden-div based 5min Re-entry (to 30min downtrend after a pullback) set-up is here:

Uk data due @ 0930 may have an effect on price.

 

[bbmac]

Re: Daily t/f view

....Price of course has yet to test the zone again but it is in a downtrend on this Daily t/f with 2 x LH now suggesting a better chance of a downside breech should it do so,?.. although I would not be surprised to see some buyers emerge there.

Price has now tested the bottom of that zone with a new LL on 4hr/Daily t/f and found some buyers at the ascending trend line area. Given the downtrend on the 4hr and Daily t/f's it probably still just about favours a downside break through the zone? Time will tell...[trade what you see not what you think.]

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Weds 9th Dec 09

....Price of course has yet to test the zone again but it is in a downtrend on this Daily t/f with 2 x LH now suggesting a better chance of a downside breech should it do so,?..

Price has breeched this zone to the downside now, with a breech too of the ascending daily t/f support trend line and 50% fib of the 5707-6876 move. Yesterday's Daily candle a bearish thrust, and the much heralded UK Pre Budget Report (PBR) later today, ahead of trade Balance data earlier.

G/L