BBmac's Gbpusd thread

[bbmac]

and again confluence

Price rallied from the London open/Asian low @ 5922, reversing the Asian/overnight bearish sentiment to see a high @ 6023..The confluence of 4 potential resistance factors circled on 1hr screenshot below

1. The previous 1hr swing hi=previous resistance=potential resistance zone
2. The 50% fib of the 6124-5922 swing
3. The underside of the previous 1hr ascending support trendline (sbr potential)
4. The daily calculated Pivot (minor factor)

...and for good measure mni were talking about supply in the 6020 area...sure enough price sold off 76pips from the Hi, correct at time of writing, and it illustrates the point about seeking confluence yet again.

 

[glyder]

Price rallied from the London open/Asian low @ 5922, reversing the Asian/overnight bearish sentiment to see a high @ 6023..The confluence of 4 potential resistance factors circled on 1hr screenshot below

1. The previous 1hr swing hi=previous resistance=potential resistance zone
2. The 50% fib of the 6124-5922 swing
3. The underside of the previous 1hr ascending support trendline (sbr potential)
4. The daily calculated Pivot (minor factor)

...and for good measure mni were talking about supply in the 6020 area...sure enough price sold off 76pips from the Hi, correct at time of writing, and it illustrates the point about seeking confluence yet again.

I took that trade, so am pleased I am on the right tracks, but I did not manage to see the degree of confluence you have found and described. There are many more angles to it than I considered before pulling the trigger. Many thanks for these enlightening posts BB.

 

[bbmac]

trend change

The 5min chart below is how the trend (as measured by overall price action-peak/valley analysis) changed off the potential resistance confluence described in posts above..

so as a new downtrend developed on this 5min t/f and as price pulled back to yet another LH at the potential sbr of the prev swing lo=previous support=potential sbr zone, it was always going to be a high probability play if a good hidden divergence based set-up developed on the t/f below-the 1min...Sure enough it did with a great bearish engulfing trigger and price duly obliged selling off to a new LL, the set-up coming at an immediate Lh on both the t/f it set-up on and the t/f above into whose trend a re-entry after a pullback was indicated.

This is how trends change and how advantage can be made of the pullbacks, ..in this case 'selling the rallys' in the highest probability circumstances. In this example the opa trend only extended to the 5min chart so no strong follow through to new intraday lows.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Nfp

Rumours have been circulating since wednesday of a low -'ve or even +'ve NFP # due to be released later today. Buy the rumour/Sell the fact ? ..probably but over @ ff.com they have been lowering their forecast all week, currently -179k despite ADP's weds forecast of -254k (not that ADP is a good guide historically, but has got better recently.) Now further rumours that Ubs are holding short through NFP with 1.5200 target...

As we know it's anyone's guess really, and market reaction will depend on deviation from the forecast consensus, revisions to previous #, un-emp rate (currently 9.7%) and manuf job losses/gains.

A 'good' # (and that could mean a low -'ve number, say -100k well below consensus forecasts) and a stable un-emp rate @ 9.7% could see the $ bulls come backwith thoughts of the worst is over etc...

We'll know @ 1230pm gmt

G/L

 

[poborsky]

Goldman boosts Sept US payrolls loss forecast

see how this works out.

 

[poborsky]

"The Labor Department today also published its preliminary estimate for the annual benchmark revisions to payrolls that will be issued in February. They showed the economy may have lost an additional 824,000 jobs in the 12 months ended March 2009. The data currently show a 4.8 million drop in employment during that time."

 

[Technically Fundamental]

What the hell do we make of this then?
You know I can never predict how economic data affects cable.

 

[poborsky]

What the hell do we make of this then?
You know I can never predict how economic data affects cable.

The no indicators strategy. Hes brilliant at news trading. Apparently

 

[bbmac]

post NFP

So yesterday's NFP came in worse than forecast @ -263k, with a decrease in av hrly earnings and increase in un-emp rate to 9.8% but with a positive revision of last mth's headline # to -201k. Cable's kneejerk was a 50pip sell-off and 4 mins later hit a low @ 5800 level, and this is where you have to remind yourself that you are a technical trader as a clear reversal set-up developed on 1m and 5min with some weak patterns of bullish divergence on 15,30 and 1hr although no real set-ups. The 5min bullish divergence based reversal set-up is shown below and although not shown there was actually double seperate valley regular immediate bullish divergence in the osma.

@ 1334pm the 1min set-up (Reversal Extreme) developed a good bullish engulfing candle as the trigger to the set-ups and the potential Support was 'light bids @5800' touted by Mni as well as the Daily S3 calculated pivot...so all in all a nice trigger and reversal set-ups to go long despite the apparent knee-jerk reaction to some fundie data.

Price duly obliged and remained generally bullish after that till w/e close.

It's always good to remind yourself that you are a tech trader and that is how your edge is derived, so even 4mnins after a major news event, if a set-up comes along you gotta act on it.

 

[bbmac]

Situation re daily t/f @ friday's close

Friday's Daily closed as a bullish pinbar, (The 4hr too closing as abullish pinbar at Friday's market clse. The Weekly candle closed almost a doji (probably a spinningh top?) this after the bearish candle close of the september monthly candle. The pinbar on the daily falls in a previous swing lo=prev supp=potential support zone on that t/f (although not on the higher weekly t/f) and again the 50% fib fan of the current Yearly Lo-Hi 3505-7044- a second touch at Friday's 5800 Lo.

Looking again above current price on the daily t/f, the chart below shows where price found it's tp this week after the recovery from early Monday lows @ 5767,..the previous Daily swing lo=previous support=potential sbr zone with the 50% fib of the6468-5767 move. Aove there and there are previous ascending support trend lines that may act as sbr on a test from the underside as well as obvious previous swing hi's=prev resistance=potential resistance and a descending potential resistance trend line. There are of course more fibs of other moves from and including the current 7044 yearly Hi not shown on chart below.

 

[bbmac]

Resistance confluence @ 6119 hi and resultant downtrend

Thursday's 6119 hi in cable followed a steep rise up from a 5857 Wednesdays Lo. A dramatic sell-off from there has resulted...Look at the confluence of potential resistance factors that were at that 6119 Hi. The 4hr chart below shows the previous swing lo then hi =previous support then res = potential sbr/res zone on that t/f, the previous swing lo being co-existant on the daily t/f also. Also there is the descending resistance trend line, the 50% fib of the 6468-5767 move, and not shown below there were also the then Daily R3, and Weekly R1 calculated pivots and of course the prev sw hi=prev res=potential res on the 1hr t/f.

The Asian/overnight session leading into the London open today (Friday) continued with the sell-off pulling back from 5997-6031 (point c - point b) and when London opened and continued the selling, they did so from the pullback LH @ the potential sbr @ point b. This pattern continued, selling down to a new LL @ point e where a pullback to the previous 1hr swing lo=previous support=potential sbr zone @ point d resulted. The selling continued from this pullback LH, to a new LL @ point g, pulling back again to the previous 1hr sw lo=prev supp=potential sbr zone and a pullback LH @ point f where again the 'with trend' sell the rally participants continued the selling from this pullback LH to a new LL in the strong downtrend to 1hr t/f.

Selling the rally in a downtrend can be done by looking for hi-probability set-ups/triggers on the t/f's @ the potential sbr.. The examples below show the hidden divergence set-ups that occurred on the 15min then 5min t/f's @ points d and f respectively.

 

[bbmac]

W/e Fri 9th Oct

Friday's candle is a bearish engulfing of the body of the previous day's (Thursday) and indeed engulfs the entire Mon Tues and Weds candles of this past week also, yet the weekly pip range was only 46% of it's 52week average.

The screenshot below shows that this bearish engulfing daily candle has breeched the 50% fib fan of the 3505-7044 move up (current Yr Lo-current Yr Hi) and the close finds itself in the Previous swing lo [=previous imbalance of demand/supply=previous support ]=potential support zone on this t/f. Below this zone and the 38.2% fibs of the 3505-7044 and 3648-7044 move come into view...there being a previous minor swing hi=prev res=potential sbr zone co-existant with a more obvious previous swing hi in early January, and this exists between the 50% fibs of the moves mentioned above.
Above this is the 61.8% fib fan of the 3505-7044 move up and there is probably the bottom of the descending channel on this t/f.

The weekly candle has closed as a bearish inverted hammer:

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Gap up at new week's open?

Xe.com and others suggesting a big gap up from Friday's 5844 area close, at new week open may be on:

These quotes can of course change before new week open, but so far suggesting a big gap up?

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Re: possible gap up at next week's open

Price has closed having breeched the 4hr ascending potential support trend line finding some suppprt at the previous swing lo=previous support=potential support zone co-existant on 1hr and 4hr [4hr shown below] and of course @ that prev daily t/f sw lo=prev supp=pot supp zone shown in post above.

Anthing is possible, and if it does gap up it will do so to the area circled in 1hr screenshot below.

The theory is that all gaps get filled anyway but such a gap will doubtless take a few stops.

G/L

 

[1Pipped]

Afternoon bbmac, looks like its going to be no gap afterall... do you by any chance know if those high cable prices were tradeable anywhere that is open at weekend - eg: oanda - or were they just on xe ?

 

[bbmac]

Afternoon bbmac, looks like its going to be no gap afterall... do you by any chance know if those high cable prices were tradeable anywhere that is open at weekend - eg: oanda - or were they just on xe ?

No, strange that more than one source over w/e were suggesting that..in the event made a hi @ 5867 after open, before a dip to 5809 and rally to 5882 asian hi in the late asian session see-ing selling into the london session off that Hi (underside of previous 4hr ascending support trend line) where a sell off to the 5720/25 bids area mentioned by mni ensued, - this area being a previous swing hi from December 2008, visible now on weekly chart. Area of lows is also bottom of the descending daily price channel and in the area of a 3 fib cluster running 5747-16-5692, being 38.2% 3642-7044, 50% 4392-7044, and 38.2% of main current yearly lo-hi 3505-7044 respectively...1hr chart below shows the regular immediate bullish divergence set-up @ the current i/day lows...there was a lso a regular sequential bullish divergence set-up on 4hr..as well as similar mix of bullish divergence set-ups down to 1min..

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Tues 13th Oct 09

A generally bearish asian/overnight session saw london open continue the selling from a 5797 pullback hi, the Uk Cpi/Rpi data knee-jerk see-ing more selling to a low of 5707. Mni had mentioned bids in the area and in the post above I had made mention of '...a 3 fib cluster running 5747-16-5692, being 38.2% 3642-7044, 50% 4392-7044, and 38.2% of main current yearly lo-hi 3505-7044 respectively...' as well as '... this area being a previous swing hi from December 2008, visible now on weekly chart...' mentioned also in above post. There were regular immediate and sequential bullish divergence set-ups to the 1hr t/fat these lows, the 1hr being seen below;

So I was un-surprised at the extent of the pullback/reversal...indeed if the Daily closes as a bullish pinbar/hammer ..this too could develop into reversal set-up

 

[bbmac]

Weeky t/f

Speaking of that previous swing hi from december 2008, it is circled on weekly chart below, but I wonder how much influence it may have over price in respect of potential support. The screenshot below shows the 3 fib cluster as well as the near-term prev sw hi x 2=prev res=potential rbs at orange zone and the 200 week sma coming through at 5470ish (pink line.)

G/L

 

[bbmac]

It's all in the charts !!

Pretty bullish sentiment visible in today's price action so far, the steep recovery move up off Tuesday's 5707 low doubtless blowing out some stops. The asia/overnight session see-ing a pullback off Wed's 5937 hi to 5900 and a London open run up to 5992 before any real supply took price down to a pre 0830am gmt un-employment data low @ 5933. They say it is all in the charts and sure enough there was a regular immediate bullish 1min and 5min reversal set-up @ those lows @ a prev 1hr sw hi=prev res=potential rbs zone, 2 mins before the data @ 0830am gmt..the 1min set-up shown below;

The reaction to the data saw a run up to the current 6023 intraday hi, where supply was encountered, the hi being the 23.6% of the major 7044-5707 fall as well as the 76.4% of the more recent 6119-5707 fall and a previous 1hr sw hi=prev res=potential res zone;

Supply continues to be encountered here and any move above will doubtless target the next potential resistance zone being the prev 1hr sw hi zone 6099-6119, 6095-6119-6164also being a previous 4hr sw lo then hi (SBR) zone, the 38.2% of the 6740-5707 fall being at the base of the zone - @ 6099, with 50% 6470-5707 being just below @ 6086 area.

G/L

 

[Technically Fundamental]

Could you not argue a triangle formation there if you discount the 1'oclock bar high/spike from the data release punting?