BBmac's Gbpusd thread

[bbmac]

Mthly t/f

I've posted it before but here again the Monthly previous swing hi/lo zone that is now potential sbr. price just touched the bottom of the zone @ a 7044 hi before the fall last week. The 50% fib of the major 2.1162-1.3505 fall @ 1.7333 remains intact and remains the next major upside fib above current 7044 high.

G/L

 

[globaljobber]

Scaling out

I'm just looking at methods of scaling out trades for this strategy. I know this is a scalping strategy, and Bbmac doesn't scale out because it has such a high win/loss ratio. However, I am thinking that for trades in the direction of trend, it might not be a bad idea to try to get some extra pips in.

The image shows my trades this morning (quite a good day!), where I tried some scaling out, and increased my earnings in the process. Main trend is down. Trade A was a single contract trade, as was E because against trend. However, trades B,C and D were made using two contracts each, as with trend. I scaled out at what I saw was a first target of around 10pips, or prev supp/res/rbs/sbr area, but then moved stop to entry and allowed second contract to go to what I judged was potentially second scale out area. Yellow arrows are scale out/close of trade positions. The B trade was effectively zero win, as one trade was winner, but stopped out on second for evens. But, trades C and D were really good wins as second contracts went on to increase pip win (with stop moved to entry to remove risk).

Don't know if anyone has anything to add to this. Just an idea to try to increase pips when with trend.

 

[WallStreetHero]

good stuff

 

[bbmac]

great eg of pa invitation to go long

Price sells off in early trading to the previous 4hr swing lo=previous support=potential support zone shown on screenhot below...this previous obvious near-term imbalance of demand/supply (swing lo) is co-existant on the daily t/f thus adding to confluence.

Dropping down a t/f the 1hr chart and price forms 3 pinbars at points a, b, and c in a clear invitation to get long against the 4hr trend but at a strong potential support zone co-existant across the next 2 higher t/f's from the trigger..a hi-probability trading opportunity for pip gain based on just pa and supp/res if ever I saw one.

G/L

I am just adding here for the sake of clarity that my own original long trigger was based on a 1min t/f bullish divergence and band deviation based set-up @ 0637am gmt this morning and I am flat now...I am just making an example of a good pa and potential supp confluence that makes for a high probability trading opportunity. there were also 5min and 15min triggers.

 

[globaljobber]

Hi Bbmac,

But....Does the 30m show a potential Re-entry to down trend (5m also just made a Rev Extr ii.) But then again, the 5m now though shows potential up trend re-entry setup?

 

[bbmac]

Hi Bbmac,

But....Does the 30m show a potential Re-entry to down trend (5m also just made a Rev Extr ii.) But then again, the 5m now though shows potential up trend re-entry setup?

Hi Gerard for a re-entry set-up on 30min back into 1hr downtrend the set-up didn't come at an optimum LH/LH on both the set-up it developed on and the higher t/f into whose downtrend the re-entry after a pullback a 'with trend' entry was sought. Ie on the 30min t/f it came @ a H following an effective HL...I'm not sayiong it wasn't a good set-up just that in respect of target the HL is a potential danger signal to the downtrend, so unless price follows through on the 30min with good bearish candles there may not be a 'with down trend' follow thru from that set-up.

In respect of the 5min Re-entry into the 30min uptrend @ potential rbs of the prev 1hr sw hi zone , well yeh 30min macd was crossed up and 1hr (and 4hr pointing up) so that's ok , just not much of a 1hr uptrend so again careful on potential target judging it on subsequent price action. PS: re your 5min pic you've really got to measure hidden div from the last obvious price swing;

@ the prev 1hr sw hi=prev res=pot rbs

G/L

 

[globaljobber]

Hi Bbmac,

That's just what I traded. Sat and waited for it. Not best 30 up trend, but all else looked ok. Although of course, only 7 pips in it as got in a little too late and out too early! Wanted to be a bit sure that Rev C was going to work, and out because seemed to be a bit of a lack-lustre day today, with little energy.

 

[globaljobber]

Hi Gerard for a re-entry set-up on 30min back into 1hr downtrend the set-up didn't come at an optimum LH/LH on both the set-up it developed on and the higher t/f into whose downtrend the re-entry after a pullback a 'with trend' entry was sought. Ie on the 30min t/f it came @ a H following an effective HL...

Thanks for this too Bbmac, will note this down as do keep forgetting.

 

[bbmac]

Hi Bbmac,

That's just what I traded. Sat and waited for it. Not best 30 up trend, but all else looked ok. Although of course, only 7 pips in it as got in a little too late and out too early! Wanted to be a bit sure that Rev C was going to work, and out because seemed to be a bit of a lack-lustre day today, with little energy.

Yeh well done on the pips, it was a pretty perfect 1min trigger Reversal C set-up (ie 10/20flip inside the existing 40/60 flip and even inside the 60,) so no real need for a late entry particularly when supported by the perfect 5min re-entry 2 set-up @ the potential rbs of the prev 1hr sw hi zone.

 

[bbmac]

re post # 104

Following on from the 3 x 1hr pinbars up from the prev 4hr and daily swing lo=prev support=potential support zone, Monday's candle closes as a doji/pin indicating potentially more upside. Indeed price is bullish and has reached a current high of 6394 (50% 6656-6131) off the 6131 low.

Above current price is the previous 4hr swing lo=previous support=potential sbr zone and in that potential sbr zone is the descending 1hr/4hr potential resistance Trend line and the 50% fib of total 6740-6131 move @ 6435 and below here the 61.8% fib of 6567-6131 @ 6400, 50% fib of 6656-6131 being just below the zone @ 6394.

Price is currently trading @ 112% of it's20 day average range

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Price reaches the 50% of 6656-6131 @ 6494 as decsribed in post above at which there is a previous 1hr minor swing hi=previous resistance=potential resistance zone...(confluence of 2 x potential res factors and Mni talking about offers in the 6390/00 zone also)

....@ which a 1min trigger Reversal set-up develops and is supported by a reversal set-up on 5 and 15min, the 1min bearish divergence and band deviation based set-up is shown below. A quick +15pips gain from the set-up.

The previous 4hr swing lo=prev support=potential sbr zone detailed in last post remains untouched by price, correct at time of writing.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Per the 2 x posts above trend is up to 1hr t/f per overall price action-peak/valley analysis and strong bullish candles on 4hr, macd signal lines are pointing up 15min-4hr t/f and the 5min macd signal is still crossed above it's axis alhough the pullback has dragged it back a bit..price now re-tests the previous 5min swing hi zone that was tested a few times as resistance before the break to the upside ...

Drop down a time frame to the 1min trigger and a perfect hidden divergence and band deviation re-entry to next t/f trend after a pullback set-up develops indicating a high probability place to get 'with next higher t/f+ trend' again at this potential rbs zone on the next higher t/f (5min)

G/L

 

[bbmac]

It's in the Charts!!

They do say that the chart's know, and following a sell off from late overnight/asian Hi @ 6412 area and just a couple of minutes before the release of the 0830am gmt Uk Boe/Mpc minutes the 5min chart set-up with a pinbar trigger in a classic reversal bullish divergence/band deviation based set-up against the prevailing bearish price action off that Hi in the late asian session.

 

[bbmac]

Fib fans?

I don't use the fibonacci fans myself but see the value of them as a potential supp/res tool/factor and like others particularly in confluence with other factors.

This morning's Low @ 5767 was a good example being @ a previous daily swing lo =previous support=potential support zone, around 38.2% of 3646-7044 and the 50% fan of the current yearly lo-hi [3505-7044.]

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Price pulled back off Monday's early lows @ 5767 to a recovery hi at the previous 4hr/daily swing lo=previous support=potential sbr zone shown as the blue zone in the 1hr screenshot below. Co-existant with that zone was also a previous 1hr/4hr swing lo zone running 6128-65..and within this entire 6108-6165 potential res/sbr zone is the underside of the previous daily t/f ascending support trend line (potential sbr) and some fibs of the swings down to 5767 starting at the 7044 high. it became obvious that the most confluence existed at the 6125-40 area and for those that use fib fans the 76.4% of the 6468-5767 fall was included in that confluence...and as you will see from screenshot below...where were the offers waiting,? that's right, where there was most confluence of potential resistance factors...

Confluence, confluence and more confluence, you can never have enough...it's where the highest probability trading opportunities reside, even against a trend, and in this example trend was up to 1hr at time of sell-off

Of course the hidden divergence on the 4hr chart also added confluence of technical factors;

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Even if waiting for a1hr trigger a nice doji trigger @ this previous 4hr/daily swing lo=prev supp=potential rbs zone with the other confluence shown and discussed above the 50% fib shown above at the zone being the 50% of the 6468-5767 move. It doesn't get anymore higher in probability than this, a 1hr trigger @ the next higher t/f potential sbr zone co-existant with the t/f above that, and some other potential resistance factor confluence with a doji trigger..nice!! and price has obliged with a move to the downside of 150+ pips at time of writing.

G/L

 

[leovirgo]

Even if waiting for a1hr trigger a nice doji trigger @ this previous 4hr/daily swing lo=prev supp=potential rbs zone with the other confluence shown and discussed above the 50% fib shown above at the zone being the 50% of the 6468-5767 move. It doesn't get anymore higher in probability than this, a 1hr trigger @ the next higher t/f potential sbr zone co-existant with the t/f above that, and some other potential resistance factor confluence with a doji trigger..nice!! and price has obliged with a move to the downside of 150+ pips at time of writing.

G/L

good analysis. did you take it btw?

 

[bbmac]

good analysis. did you take it btw?

yes but I got in on a 1min trigger (a Reversal Extreme set-up) there were bearish divergence set-ups of varying types to the 30min chart supporting it along with that 4hr hidden divergence re-entry set-up.

G/L

 

[leovirgo]

I took a similar trade in GJ.

 

[Technically Fundamental]

I was logged in to my account and my boss called me in his office at 15:28 I got back at 15:38