BBmac's Gbpusd thread

[kaisen]

Thats a slippery slope that has led to my numerous blow ups. Just wait to be told what to do. You can only be wrong if you form an opinion.

Thanks TF. I certainly do not look to trade the news etc but I am interested in possible triggers in the background as it were.

I whole heartedly agree that, to be honest, whatever my opinion on what the market should do based on fundamentals is not important, it is what the market makes of it and I should trade according to what the markets reaction is.

Just wondered whether it is a note to oneself to be mindful of. But at the end of the day the market will do what the market does.

 

[The Baptist]

GBP Break Out strength

YouTube - GBP Breaks Out to JPY and Euro Targets met

 

[Technically Fundamental]

You can watch the market fly in the minute or two prior to data releases so the chart gives away the figure in a much quicker time than you would be able to go digging it up. Then comes the problem of getting fills
Also, in my months learning this shizen I've not seen many imbalances etc correct themselves on an intra-day basis. Maybe if you have a good understanding of imbalances you can pick an instrument which is under/over valued and watch it but as far as taking that kind of macro trade... I personally can't see how it's possible for us retail traders.

 

[bbmac]

BBMAC/Gamma,

Do you take any fundamentals into consideration today? For example FTSE is down over 1% and commodity prices are down, CPI down etc?
Will that lend to a trigger of a reversal?

If so what are your guesstimates?

My trigger is purely technical...for contra-trend (ie pullbacks or complete reversals) they are based on the confluence of hi-probability repeating patterns of regular divergence/extreme readings with band deviation @ pre-identified potential supp/res and for Re-entry (to next t/f trend after a pullback) ie buy the dip/sell the rally...they are based on hi-probability repeating patterns of hidden dovergence and band deviation on the t/f below that the trend first exists upon and @ pre-identified potential sbr/rbs on the t/f above that it sets-up on...both with a price action trigger.

I am aware of the overall fundamental environment but it does not figure in my trading decisons...this said after the market's strong reaction to an intraday data release (s.) I would be more wary of trading contra-trend for any extended target unless there were a confluence of tech reasons to do so, as detailed above. Simplistically speaking; The sell the first hi buy the first dip -or- buy the first lo/sell the first rally after a strong reaction to a data release can so often work well.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

New intrday highs and a HH of the uptrend results from the 5min hidden-divergence based Re-entry (to next t/f trend after a pullback) @ the potential rbs/supp of the then 23.6% of the then 6342-6590 move up.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

The Daily chart shows the potential resistance zones to the upside of current price on this t/f, with the 76.4% fib of the main 7044-5707 move down @ 6728. Ahead of this the 76.4% fibfan of same move.

Price has breeched the descending resistance trend line on the daily as well as the 61.8% of the 7044-5707 move and is in an uptrend to the 4hr t/f with an upside breech too of the last 2 x LH's of the previous Daily downtrend

G/L

 

[bbmac]

The screenshot below shows that price has arrived at one of the 2 potential descending resistance trend lines on the weekly t/f...the 76.4% fibfan of the total 2.1162-1.3505, although not shown follows virtually the same line as the higher one.

G/L

Daily R3 here too:

 

[bbmac]

Price today @ 159% of it's 20day average pip range now;

Not neccessarily related to the above, This is the first potential rbs zone on 4hr at which I would look for 1hr hidden divergence based set-up and a 1hr price action trigger to get back with 4hr uptrend after a pullback (if indeed I was playing a 1hr trigger which I am not) In so doing and at entry I would look to ensure that the 4hr macd signal line is still above it's zero axis, and that at least the Daily is still pointing up..In this prev swing hi=prev res=potential rbs zone, the 38.2% of current 6240-6628 move with 50% of 6525-6628 a couple of pips below that 38.2%.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Thurs 22nd Oct

Tight asian/overnight session sandwiched between the 1hr swing hi zone and prev 1hr swing hi zone below that has now provided support (RBS,) indeed where early London session support has been found..the 1hr chart below is how I am see-ing the potential supp/res factors on this t/f and as usual I shall be looking for repeating hi-probability set-ups on my trigger t/f +, with a pa trigger at these areas and particularly where they are co-existant with such potential supp/res factors on the 4hr t/f also.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Not much of an overall price action-peak/valley trend on 5min at entry but 5min macd signal line crossed below axis and 30min/1hr poiting down so took a chance on a hidden-div based 1min Re-entry set-up into this dodgy 5min downtrend:

The 5min prev sw lo=prev supp=potential sbr zone is here:

Price sold down to the prev 1hr sw hi/lo zone circled below;

@ which a regular bullish divergence based set-up developed on the 1min trigger chart for another hi-probability trading opportunity;

So, a couple of quick hi-probability trades in early London session with +12 and +14 achieved.

Uk retail Sales data @ 0830am gmt

G/L

 

[bbmac]

3rd test of this previous 1hr swing hi=prev res=potential rbs zone that has now become a prev sw lo zone also...obvious demand here, but will be wary on any 4th test, wary of demand being erased by supply...

Trend remains up to 4hr t/f with yesterday's candle closing bullish and body engulfing bearish body of previous. Is there more upside to come?

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Current 1hr channel is shown in pic below, scenario A may play out with a bearish or bullish thrust candle close b/o of channel would be a hi-probability play, or scenario B = congestion-2nd b/o ie retest of channel before true b/o

G/L

 

[bbmac]

1hr congestion channel breaks to the downside, price reacting to comments from Boe/Mpc member Tucker's comments...nice oscillator extremes and cci hook based Reversal set-up develops on 1min trigger @ the 6550 bids previously reported by mni, this before the hidden divergence based Re-entry to 5min downtrend developed after the pullback from the Reversal Extreme with pinbar trigger set-up..

This Re-entry to 5min downtrend @ a prev 5min sw lo =prev supp=potential sbr zone shown below;

Price challenging 23.6$ of 6240-6638 as I write this

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Thick and fast this morning, a great 1min regular bulliish divergence based Reversal set-up with bullish pinbar trigger below (supported by a 5min Reversal Extreme set-up as described in post above.) 1min set-up shown below:

This @ the prev 1hr swing lo=prev supp=potential supp zone, mni previously confirming that bids likely in that region

Flat now going into Uk retail sales data release..

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Worse than expected Uk Retail sales data causes the drop react...nice 1min Reversal Extreme set-up (set-up decribed in the posts above) develops @ the 6500 area bids previously touted by mni..for a quick +13 pip gain from 6513 ask..

Typical data react of buy the first dip/sell the first rally?

Hidden divergence building in the 1hr oscillators now

G/L

 

[gamma]

Hi bbmac,
Great analysis again,
I see a good exit point at the 50 fib you pointed out for a short on the break of the pivot

 

[bbmac]

Hi bbmac,
Great analysis again,
I see a good exit point at the 50 fib you pointed out for a short on the break of the pivot

Yeh price arrives at a prev 1hr (and 4hr) swing hi = prev res=potential rbs zone co-existant with 38.2% 6240-6638 and 50% 6325-6638,...also here but not shown on 1hr chart below is the ascending potential support t/line on 4hr;

A nice 1min triger bullish divergence based Reversal set-up shown below (supported by a 5min Reversal Extreme set-up, set-up described in posts above)

This as I read on newsfeeds of bids to 6490 with 'tech support 6480/85 and apparently UBS are short cable with a 6000 target and 6800 stop !? Mni talking about base of recent channel @ 6425 area and ahead of that 6445 possible support?

G/L

 

[gamma]

Looks like a small loss on this trade 16540 and I am out for a 10 point loss

 

[bbmac]

You can see how the above 1hr prev sw hi=prev res=potential rbs zone is co-existant with an obvious prev sw hi=prev res=potential rbs zone on 4hr too..

G/L

 

[bbmac]

The 5min supprting set-up to the regular bullish divergence 1min trigger set-up is shown below...a Reversal Extreme, ie extreme oscillator/cci hook based set-up..

I had spoken in last post yesterday that this area may see a bounce and indeed 1hr hidden divergence is evident there..This said it follows 2 x LH and a L below the last HL of the 1hr uptrend, so concerning if holding long for any extended target above current 6638 Hi of the move, from this set-up? anything is possible though, lol

G/L