A Master Class in FX Intraday Trading by F & Co

[Forexmospherian]

Back later on

GL

 

[NickBk]

LOL I love how the EA falls 120 points on US jobs news...

I had a small short left on and then took a deep breath and did my best knife catching act at 147.50 and had a 80 pip ride back up and out.

Just because it happened doesn't mean it's right.

Missed EU but that's fine -))

 

[sun11]

EU

What a news release is this, first it fallen that bad Now its recovered more than 100% of its fall.
Market makers game. I don't see any trend set up here.
Those trader would be lucky who bought from 902.
120 pips move.

 

[Forexmospherian]

EU

1 39PM

It needs to stay under 0935-40 to be able to sell again and then breach under 0880 etc to stay as a down rally


Above 0945 and then staying over 0920 means we might try above 0960+ again

GL

EU

4 37PM

Nearly 3 hrs later

Low around 0900 held over 30+ mins

We stayed above 0920 and made over 0945

PA and LRs said buy after 1 51 and 2 00 pm

Above 0960 we went into a bull PS for US session

HH's and HLs'

Dollar strength disappeared after 2 00 pm and the GU joined the EU in a turn back up

Etc etc etc

 

[Forexmospherian]

GU & GJ

Later on GJ after 2 00 pm and 2 30 pm the large move back up started

Over 100 pip move up on GU and approx 140 pip move up on GJ

No high held over 30 mins on pound crosses but different on EU but now the last HL as lasted over 30+ mins

Lots of clues all over the FX markets on the turns

 

[Forexmospherian]

LOL I love how the EA falls 120 points on US jobs news...

I had a small short left on and then took a deep breath and did my best knife catching act at 147.50 and had a 80 pip ride back up and out.

Just because it happened doesn't mean it's right.

Missed EU but that's fine -))

Hi Nick

Noticed the LH at 3 09 / 10 pm and then a 60 pip fall on EA

Still in bear land for me - but market is playing its normal games - after all its been Freaky Friday

Hope you had a good day - I know you must have had a great week

Enjoy your weekend

Regards

Peter

 

[NickBk]

Hi Nick

Noticed the LH at 3 09 / 10 pm and then a 60 pip fall on EA

Still in bear land for me - but market is playing its normal games - after all its been Freaky Friday

Hope you had a good day - I know you must have had a great week

Enjoy your weekend

Regards

Peter

Hi F,

Superb day and a brilliant week.

They kept all that crazy stuff locked up yesterday so we could get double the fun today. Had my target like many hours ago and now just been hitting it hard since 13.30. Nearly done now and wont take any new positions just babysit my last few.

If I put my total pips here, I doubt anyone barring you would believe me.

Have a great weekend.

Cheers

Edit: Pips don't count I know it is all about the cash. Ended at a very decent lot size.

 

[Forexmospherian]

Hi Nick

Noticed the LH at 3 09 / 10 pm and then a 60 pip fall on EA

Still in bear land for me - but market is playing its normal games - after all its been Freaky Friday

Hope you had a good day - I know you must have had a great week

Enjoy your weekend

Regards

Peter

EA

Approx 90 mins on from this comment - and its dropped another approx 50 pips

Nice way to finish the week off


Enjoy your weekend


Regards


F

 

[NickBk]

^^ EA was my last babysit, just out

Cheers

 

[Forexmospherian]

Hi guys

i posted this comment this morning on another thread

I have copied it here as it gives more detail on the financials and money side of my method

Just to explain if you think my average win of 13 pips is very low - that's because its based on full stake size - and therefore a 45 pip scalp that as say 30 pips on just 30% is only like a 9 pip win on full stake

Also some of my winning trades only make 3 or 5 pips - they are still wins - but of course I get more scratched trades under 10 pips than I do catch 100 pips moves that again will only be on partials with stops in profit

Any other points or queries on it feel free to comment on

Enjoy your weekend

Hi hhiusa

Earlier on in this thread you accused me of making many assumptions etc

Well your assumption that was based in your maths - every 100 trades I will make on average a return of just 1 5% is so unbelievably INCORRECT - all due to so many incorrect assumptions - basically because you just have not got a clue how my method works and how I trade.

I say that with no disrespect because I have checked your own trading thread out and similar I don't really understand how you really trade - other then maybe on FX pairs - and even the info you supply on the statement does not really give me all I need to know.

OK - you have confirmed you don't use stops and that mostly you leave trades on a few days or longer - that you are prepared to average down and that you look for 1% + return on winning trades.

You have then worked out your projected returns all based on maths etc.

Now the only way you can do that with my method is by having all the stats - not just cherry picking win ratios and assumptions that I make a 10 pip profit on every winning trade and have a 10 pip stop ?

Remember my retail way is as far as I am concerned fairly "unique" - its far detached to the majority of normal ways retail traders trade and very different to commercial/ institutional trading - ie the guys you think you should try and replicate .

I put emphasis on trade entries and accuracy and doing all the things most traders say you cannot do - ie catching interim lows and highs and making multi intraday trades a day that might last 2 mins or 2 hrs or 2 months - with no fixed targets on each trade.

My stops are all the same - ok well 3 to 7 pips so if you average 5 pips as the stop size that would apply and cover over 60% of all my trades#

I will not enter a trade on my full stake size I am working on that day unless I can enter with a stop under 7 pips. However my full stake size is again not fixed in stone - it depends on so many factors - including the time of the day and also the day of the week and of the month - and of course my last 100 trades success rate in terms of profit return

You cannot work all these variables out in just a simple maths formulae - ok you might think you can as you are good at advanced maths - but you results will only be correct if you have all the relevant information

Win ratios on the own are of no real guide. Similar Risk to Reward ratios in isolation are of no real use - but if you have all the components involved - then you will get a more realistic answer.

Sharpe ratios etc and other ratios used by the industry are similar are not of great use when you are not compounding ( I don't compound) and for just retail size capital accounts.

You have made me chuckle when you said about 1 5% on ever 100 trades - so let me explain more to show how you are so wrong

I would do normally 100 intraday trades in approx 7 trading days ( on average )

So according to you if I average 1 5% return every 7 trading days - in one full trading year of say approx 250 trading days - that's approx an average annual 54% ROC .

Trouble is you have then forgotten to factor in all my money management "edges" the tips etc you don't read about in books and told about on courses

1. As already said - my stop size is nearly constant - ie average 5 pips - but my targets are entirely fluid / flexible - and although I expect a minimum 1:1 RR on even as really poor trades - most trading days I will also have winning trades with RR's of 3 and 5 and even as high as 10 .

2. Because I am after efficiency in trading - I want my RR's of 3 or 5 within 30 mins of trading - and then I can bank it - an also get more trades in my trading session window

3. On busy trading days I don't stop at my daily target of 50 pips - I can easily double or treble it and even 7 fold it but then most of the winning pips might be on just partial stakes with the stops already in profit - so not to risk a winning trade go to a loss. - slight diversion here - how many trades do you have that go from being in a winning position into a loss that you keep having to average down on ??

4. With my method its possible to have 6 winning trades that make me more money that 15 winning trades with double the amount of pips. I hope you understand this as its certainly not factored in anyway on your basic maths formulae.

A typical 100 trade result for me would be the following

Win ratio - 71%

Average R/R - 2.4

Average efficiency factor - 7

Winning trades 71 - average pip size 13 pips - 923 pips

Losing trades 29 - average pip size 4 pips - 116 pips

Net pip results - 923 - 116 = 807 pips

Value per pip - anything from $10 to $70 - ( that's another reason why i will not disclose results)

My daily target is 50 pips on full stake size for session

So if I do 100 trades in approx 7 trading days - my normal expected result is 7 x 50 = 350 pips

Therefore if I make approx 807 pips in that period - i am over double my target - but it does not mean it double over my money target.

Now all these figures are not fixed in stone - and as the FX markets - they are constantly changing - ie

My win ratio might drop to 64% in April and my RR's might drop to 1.7 and my average winning trade might go to 11.

However in May - my win ratios might improved to 78% my RR's improve to 3 and my losing trades average stop in below 4 and I do 100 trades in only 6 working days.

Going back to your assumption of 1 5% return on 100 trades - its actually between 7 and 19% - all depending on the size of stake and the the amount of partials stakes in the 100 trade result

Anything under 5% return on 100 intraday trades is inefficient and means the method is then not that brilliant.

For me to make losses over 100 trades and over 7 trading days - I would need a win ratio of under 40% - RR under 1.4 and average winning trade under 8 pips with stop size of 5 pips

Please feel free to question these figures

Regards


F

 

[Forexmospherian]

Monday 7th March 2016 - European Open

Good Morning Guys

The format will be changing from this week and I will start today with a few things I have shared with the old thread in the past

First - Preparation

I don't need to use a time management planner for my intrday trading - simply because I have been trading long enough to know it with out having to check a template.

But for those newer followers here's an updated template with the main times of a full day session along with the 9 FX pairs I might trade. I do have a UChf chart up as well but rarely trade that pair and out of the 9 listed 80% of all my trades are with less than 4 pairs most days

Second - Chart set up

This year I have been using a tick chart more that me normal one minute frame for my entries

Entries are key for my method - as I need accuracy and as early entry as possible - so that if I have got my scalp incorrect - and its not going to make over 7 or 15 or even 25+ pips - at least I might be able to get out in profit - even if its only 3 pips

My tick charts - whether t4 or t6 or t8 all have the same LR set ups

There as been a great scalp buy on the EA and great scalp sell on the GJ from after 6 21 am this morning - and in both cases the tick charts gave me advanced clues for earlier entries


Third - Focus - Pacing - Patience - Discipline

Not every morning will the first 90 mins be really good

Market makers are constantly setting up false sentiment patterns and prices - to catch traders out. You dont want 3 or 4 losses and no wins before say 8 15 am in the morning - missing out on the London Open hr - have patience and strong discipline

Forth - Time

Any good successful trading method is only as good as the trader carrying it out

Don't expect results to be anything like mine or Major Magnum's etc in just 3 or 6 or even 12 months . It takes years f practice to improve your skill level - and this method involves many skills - that are not just possible to replicate within a short time period. You need at least 3 months just studying the 1 min chart and feeling a sthough you understand every move - and I dont mean just 1 hr a day - ideal;ly 4 hrs a day - and it can be like watching paint dry.

Hope my explanation is good enough to put all "Newbie" traders off even trying to follow my method . Get your 18 minths + of basic studies in - and then maybe try it

I will not be around every day this week full time - but please feel free to share your chart set ups as well as call etc etc

Have a good day and week


Regards


F

 

[Forexmospherian]

EO at 7 00 am was busy - Here's EJ set up

Loads of scalp opportunities in the 7 00 am TW - ie 6 51 am to 7 09 am

I am posting the EJ one as it shows a nice "false" set up spike to take scalpers out before the drop

A great example of manipulation by large money and even LP's

For me my price structure based on the LR;s after 5 30 and and after 6 00 am said we should keep with LH's and go then to LL's and so that meant sells

 

[Forexmospherian]

7 44am

Not around for first part of the London Open but hope to pop in after 8 45 am for an hr

It's a Monday - so will be checking calendar etc and deciding the main key times to be around

To early to say if it will be a busy Monday or not - but will still try and get 4 hrs of trading in before London Close

Please feel free to post questions - charts - calls etc - etc

See you later and be careful on the hr change for LO

 

[sun11]

Morning,

I guess wasn't not careful during LO.
During EO made 12 pips with EU & GU. Later during LO loss 12 pips for EA. Shame. False movement.

 

[Forexmospherian]

EJ - 53 pips in the bag before 9 00 am just off this pair

Loads of scalp opportunities in the 7 00 am TW - ie 6 51 am to 7 09 am

I am posting the EJ one as it shows a nice "false" set up spike to take scalpers out before the drop

A great example of manipulation by large money and even LP's

For me my price structure based on the LR;s after 5 30 and and after 6 00 am said we should keep with LH's and go then to LL's and so that meant sells

Continuation of EJ TicK Chart from 7 00 am

 

[Forexmospherian]

Morning,

I guess wasn't not careful during LO.
During EO made 12 pips with EU & GU. Later during LO loss 12 pips for EA. Shame. False movement.

Morning Sun#

My biggest concern there on what you have said is twofold

1. Not being able to get out of the EA bad trade under a 7 pips loss and thats including 3 pip spread - not on top . 12 pip loss is to large aqnd really maybe you should not scalp EA without you having confidence of getting out under 7 pips n- like getting out other bad scalps under 5 pips

2. Covering 3 pairs in under an hour - Are you ready for that?? Covering 2 pairs is OK in and hour - but 3 pairs is a lot going on for a scalper with less than a couple of thousand scalps under their belt and under one year of my method ??

I think focusing on one pair on a scalp is first priority etc - two OK sometimes - but trying to scalp 3 different pairs in the busy hr needs a lot of skill SUN

I worry that you are trying to run at top speed before you are confident just jogging. I can get away with it - with 2 or 3 pairs - but that's only because I have 24K + scalps under my belt and its like second nature to me

Also - EJ was a lovely set up - and stood out for me

Pace yourself and keep focused Sun - and have a good day

You are getting there - but again - one step at a time

 

[Forexmospherian]

Good Morning Guys

The format will be changing from this week and I will start today with a few things I have shared with the old thread in the past

---------------------------------------

----------------------------

My tick charts - whether t4 or t6 or t8 all have the same LR set ups

There as been a great scalp buy on the EA and great scalp sell on the GJ from after 6 21 am this morning - and in both cases the tick charts gave me advanced clues for earlier entries

--------------------------------------------------


Third - Focus - Pacing - Patience - Discipline

Not every morning will the first 90 mins be really good

Comment above on GJ approx 2 hrs ago

Since then its dropped over 100 pips

 

[sun11]

Morning Sun#

My biggest concern there on what you have said is twofold

1. Not being able to get out of the EA bad trade under a 7 pips loss and thats including 3 pip spread - not on top . 12 pip loss is to large aqnd really maybe you should not scalp EA without you having confidence of getting out under 7 pips n- like getting out other bad scalps under 5 pips

2. Covering 3 pairs in under an hour - Are you ready for that?? Covering 2 pairs is OK in and hour - but 3 pairs is a lot going on for a scalper with less than a couple of thousand scalps under their belt and under one year of my method ??

I think focusing on one pair on a scalp is first priority etc - two OK sometimes - but trying to scalp 3 different pairs in the busy hr needs a lot of skill SUN

I worry that you are trying to run at top speed before you are confident just jogging. I can get away with it - with 2 or 3 pairs - but that's only because I have 24K + scalps under my belt and its like second nature to me

Also - EJ was a lovely set up - and stood out for me

Pace yourself and keep focused Sun - and have a good day

You are getting there - but again - one step at a time

Hi Peter,

With the 1st point, I agree, sometimes I hold trade 7+ pips loss because of the spikes. During LO it was a spike & false sentiment, I sold EA, but I got stopped out for 12 pips. I was giving it some room to get back to normal position. But as soon as I realize that its 12 pips negative, i closed it. later it fallen 20+ pips in my favor. But i was already out.

With regard to the 2nd point, Noted. I thought, I could cover over them as all them sync together. But now as you mentioned, Ok i will follow 1-2 pairs per hour. Not more than that.

I was today +12 pips in profit. But now i am -7 pips loss in terms of daily pl. But taking a break for 30 minute again, last trades on EU created some losses. I was selling EU, thinking that its a correction. But it was keep rising. Last trade I made from 240 LR. As soon as market touched it sold position to that correction zone. But it failed.

In case of EU I was targeting 902 area when i was selling from 945-950 area. Obviously I was not planning to get that target in one shot. But was hoping to get at least 15 pips in my favor. But this plan failed.

I today my wining rate is moderate. But still my daily pl is in loss. Because of the R:R.

I have one question:

Do you enter sell or buy from the longer LRs. In term of tick chart, obviously you don't wait for 1 minute to enter trade. I do the same. But sometimes it doesn't work. Not always longer LR works as support or resistance. Specially when the trend is already changed.

How can I deal with it?

Answer when ever you get time..no hurry.
Thank you again,
Regards
S.

 

[Forexmospherian]

EU

9 22am

Ideally would like to buy above 0923/27 area if possible

0940 is a support and 0920 - if we just get through both then 0900

Might not be around to get a good entry - and EU is slow - but above 0920 its still really in a bull PS from last week

 

[Forexmospherian]

Hi Peter,

With the 1st point, I agree, sometimes I hold trade 7+ pips loss because of the spikes. During LO it was a spike & false sentiment, I sold EA, but I got stopped out for 12 pips. I was giving it some room to get back to normal position. But as soon as I realize that its 12 pips negative, i closed it. later it fallen 20+ pips in my favor. But i was already out.

With regard to the 2nd point, Noted. I thought, I could cover over them as all them sync together. But now as you mentioned, Ok i will follow 1-2 pairs per hour. Not more than that.

I was today +12 pips in profit. But now i am -7 pips loss in terms of daily pl. But taking a break for 30 minute again, last trades on EU created some losses. I was selling EU, thinking that its a correction. But it was keep rising. Last trade I made from 240 LR. As soon as market touched it sold position to that correction zone. But it failed.

In case of EU I was targeting 902 area when i was selling from 945-950 area. Obviously I was not planning to get that target in one shot. But was hoping to get at least 15 pips in my favor. But this plan failed.

I today my wining rate is moderate. But still my daily pl is in loss. Because of the R:R.

I have one question:

Do you enter sell or buy from the longer LRs. In term of tick chart, obviously you don't wait for 1 minute to enter trade. I do the same. But sometimes it doesn't work. Not always longer LR works as support or resistance. Specially when the trend is already changed.

How can I deal with it?

Answer when ever you get time..no hurry.
Thank you again,
Regards
S.

I always enter my scalp buy or scalp sell from the quickest LRs turning ie the 8/9 / 12 settings - but only if the structure of the other LR's are agreeing with the direction I am taking

Example - i would not take a new scalp sell if my 8 / 12 lrs are still under price bar/candle saying its still trying up

The fastest LRs are the most important for scalping - but remember some scalps might only be worth 3 pips and so you try to ignore them - other scalps from a new low in a down trend - could be - say could be the start of a turn up and a 50 -100 - even 300 pip upmove

The longer LRs - mid range and longer are for price structure of the session that 30 or 60 mins

Its the quick LR's that every move starts with

Hope that helps Sun

Regards


Peter

Back next after 11 00 am