swingin' the ftse: 2008

And we start the year with.................

monthly timeframe - still looking bullish despite the volatility of the last half of 2007 and the rejection so far of the 6951 all-time high.

weekly time frame - has a ranging look about it twixt 6000 and 6750. On the downside 6000 looks a key number with several visits and breaches of it last year, although no weekly close below that level to confirm any breach.

daily time frame - our trading timeframe. The year starts with the swing trend UP. Remember that the swing trend is an assumed trend based on confirmed* breaks of swing highs/lows.

* Some will not wait for confirmation and will trade the break itself, others will hold off trading until the first reaction, still others not until they have seen some confirmation (their own methods) of the trend change.

There was a long signal on 20 December and an entry at around 6322 which is still running. Today may give us a third bar of reaction and a potential swing low (I'll post it later if it comes) with possible opportunity to add to the initial position.

Good trading

jon

barjon said:

monthly timeframe - still looking bullish despite the volatility of the last half of 2007 and the rejection so far of the 6951 all-time high.

Click to expand...

Just want to add a little postscript to Jon's comments with an observation about volume. In spite of the recent volatility, volume has steadily dropped off in a gradual decline since September last year. If the bulls are to mount a serious assault on the 2007 highs, I would want and expect to see this trend reversing.
Tim.

ugh one day in and already trouble appears.

We got our third lower low and potential swing low (thick blue line) BUT after making a higher high before afternoon tumble as US weakness kicked in. Not tradeable as it stands imo and will be looking for a bit further down tomorrow - not beyond around 6380 (see further below) - and another potential swing low which looks more respectable.

If I'd been in the long trade from around 6322 and hadn't already taken profits I'd be looking to protect some gains by shifting stop to around that 6380 level which is fib50% of the up move. Can always re-enter if a potential swing low does get confirmed. Some will have already closed out when we came back below today's open.

good trading

jon

Happy New Year Jon and all

barjon said:

ugh one day in and already trouble appears.

We got our third lower low and potential swing low (thick blue line) BUT after making a higher high before afternoon tumble as US weakness kicked in. Not tradeable as it stands imo and will be looking for a bit further down tomorrow - not beyond around 6380 (see further below) - and another potential swing low which looks more respectable.

If I'd been in the long trade from around 6322 and hadn't already taken profits I'd be looking to protect some gains by shifting stop to around that 6380 level which is fib50% of the up move. Can always re-enter if a potential swing low does get confirmed. Some will have already closed out when we came back below today's open.

good trading

jon

Click to expand...

Hi Jon

Good post"sss Jon, keep thread going its a good one, :clap:

Just a wee bit more if I may, them yanks (Dow are swing low violated :-0 and closed below tonight = they are Short term trend down and the other time frames are very ifffffffffffffyyyy as is the ftse, (not quite as bad) under 12 sma month 52 sma week and under lows to

Other indexs are still up

Ftse, your chart don"t show gap open Jon on 20-21st Dec, a gap thats not filled yet(few more hours should sort that unless unemployment numbers come in good in the am)

For those interested, I have averages SMA 52 and 14 sloping down to, Rsi 10 holding its 50 line @ 56:15 which is the only bright spot but he"s still pointing downwards.

Trade well all, and happy New Year :clover:

thanks for p&f charts tim errrr mine are looking similer tim.

Andy

andy

yeah, the LSE rules maintain no gap openings which a lot of providers still follow - including pro-real-time it seems. i haven't got round to replacing sharescope yet (who recognised gaps) since i got a bit fed up with them feeding all the goodies to the real time version and leaving eod a bit in the cold, so have to live with it for a bit.

hope the gap doesn't mean no-one could have got the 6322 entry i was talking about since i wasn't about on the day and i don't want to lead anyone up the garden path .

cheers

jon

Well that's a bit better, but not much.

New potential swing low today signalling a long entry around 6490 if it comes. Even the bold will only take half position though I would think - either as a new trade or as an addition to the first position (where the stop will be moved up).

I've decided to bite my chagrin with Sharescope and re-activate my account, so it should be back to normal charts soon. Couldn't find anything I liked better.

good trading

jon

UP but NOT

barjon said:

Well that's a bit better, but not much.

New potential swing low today signalling a long entry around 6490 if it comes. Even the bold will only take half position though I would think - either as a new trade or as an addition to the first position (where the stop will be moved up).

I've decided to bite my chagrin with Sharescope and re-activate my account, so it should be back to normal charts soon. Couldn't find anything I liked better.

good trading

jon

Click to expand...

Hi Jon

Good call and sensible advice to those not able to keep an eye on developements

No candle expert but

Its not good we have an engulfer of the whole area, I won"t mention my scalp short this morning its just to

errrrrrrrrrrr gaps been filled

Dows gone, if I could post chart I would, dont seem to copy and upload and splashed with broker rubbish adverts.

Basic out the bottom of point of a wedge days no R under for a bit and Swing trend down and confirmed. Disapline required = see if we get a nice 3 day rally to sell into next week

Ftse is still up but NOT I think cash 250 is down point. So its usual self = a head of its self or behind itself = nice range index :cheesy:

Andy

It triggered, but turned out as risky as it looked. The cautious (who wait for a close above the swinglow high) will be applauding their caution whilst the bold count the cost.

good trading

jon

How do you do it sticker for the rules or no

barjon said:

It triggered, but turned out as risky as it looked. The cautious (who wait for a close above the swinglow high) will be applauding their caution whilst the bold count the cost.

good trading

jon

Click to expand...

Jon

I do things my way and I am sure others do it theirs.

I am not pure swing trader by a stretch, I would not describe myself as a pure intra day trader, I am sort of between just am. Have an awareness what you lads are up to and what others are up to and manage to grab a few more intra day pts which includes the odd overnighter by being aware. Usually gone for brunch or 1st reaction against us next day for sure and move on to the next.

Just as easy for me to be gone in one 3min bar as it is to stay all day


Q: Would you or do you Jon or any one else come to think of it

Enter a swing signal like the recent ones given when the Dow is contra ie: down and opinion to it being Up open to question. ( it never was up IMO)

Just wondered or do you enter all with no discretion at all :?:

question is for anyone who follows thread

thought we could fill the days between now and the Dow/ftse 3-5 day bounce with a bit of light trader banter, see if this threads can come up with any thought provoking ideas from anyone.

I will go 1st

If you wait for the close above the signal Jon :?: it trends or breaks out and trends into the close

How do you get in for reasonable cost of carry :?: or do you pass on the trade if its not a drunk after all but a top prizefighter (which is what we are after) or do you enter at the front of bus then Jon (small pullback perhaps intra day) :?: how do you place stops if intra day entry, same as swing location or intra day time frame, I ask because you mentioned in earlier posts that you liked to enter after the signal is given.

I just would not trade it due to Crimbo period full stop and never at the signal, a few intra day scalps for me thats all.

Did a long day before of a range that proved to be at the low of the day with swing low and cont of trend in mind, but did not carry it, (intra day pull back a bit violent for my taste) just had wee gain away before the Dow open threatened to remove gain from my open PL screen.


Andy

develbis said:

Jon

..................Enter a swing signal like the recent ones given when the Dow is contra ie: down and opinion to it being Up open to question. ( it never was up IMO)

Just wondered or do you enter all with no discretion at all :?:

question is for anyone who follows thread

thought we could fill the days between now and the Dow/ftse 3-5 day bounce with a bit of light trader banter, see if this threads can come up with any thought provoking ideas from anyone.

I will go 1st

If you wait for the close above the signal Jon :?: it trends or breaks out and trends into the close

How do you get in for reasonable cost of carry :?: or do you pass on the trade if its not a drunk after all but a top prizefighter (which is what we are after) or do you enter at the front of bus then Jon (small pullback perhaps intra day) :?: how do you place stops if intra day entry, same as swing location or intra day time frame, I ask because you mentioned in earlier posts that you liked to enter after the signal is given. .....................




Andy

Click to expand...

andy

I use the thread to demonstrate the principles of simple 3-bar swing trading as a follow on from this article T2W Trading Community . I have tried not to cloud it all too much by talking about the different conditions that may apply, but have tried to indicate how different traders (fearless, bold, more cautious, cautious) may approach it. It's up to individual traders to determine their own rules and conditions.

For my own trading I only play with ftse (UK shares are my main bag) and my trading bounces between bold and more cautious with position size more or less equalling out the different risks.

I do use my discretion (albeit that it's a moot point as to whether that gives better results) and I did not take this latest trade because of the volatile christmas period; the suspect retracement; the dow weakness causing sudden back offs from ftse trying for higher things etc. Had I been in the earlier position I might have chanced a small addition but I would have had the stop on both to just below today's early low.

I will enter on the break after retracement when there is momentum behind the move, otherwise I wait for a close above and see if there is an opportunity the next day or so via intraday action. Similarly with trend change. I see this like a traffic light with a number of red and ambers before the light finally turns green - each trader determines how they will approach this.

Happy to discuss in more detail if you like.

good trading

jon

I'd like to add my congratulations on this thread, it has inspired me to resume swing trading the FTSE. Here's hoping for a good year!
Tom

tomorton said:

I'd like to add my congratulations on this thread, it has inspired me to resume swing trading the FTSE. Here's hoping for a good year!
Tom

Click to expand...

Mr. Orton, Sir - how very nice to see you. Welcome aboard and happy new year!
Tim.

Week 1/08

New thread, new year - so I thought I'd introduce a few changes in the way I present the P&F chart. I'll put the 'nuts and bolts' of the info' conveyed by the chart in simple note form at the top of the post. This will enable anyone interested in these details to access them without having to wade through a quagmire of my waffle!
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Status: BEARISH
Support: 6275
Resistance 1: 6500
Resistance 2: 6600

You'll notice from the chart that both the red bearish resistance line and the bloo bullish support line are in play. Sooner or later, one of them will be breached, allowing the other to dominate. In the last line of bloo 'X's, the bulls failed to push the index as far up as the bearish resistance line. On the other hand, the bears are within one square of testing the bullish support line and just 3 squares away from support at 6275. If support is breached, a second consecutive double bottom sell signal will be generated. If this happens, the current column of red 'O's would still only be 10 strong, leaving plenty of scope for further falls within the existing column. The point being that any pull backs could be minor - i.e. less than 75 points and that last Fridays very wide range bar/candle could just be a hint of things to come.
Tim.

well, here we are back with good old sharescope

Further to my post here http://www.trade2win.com/boards/381170-post10.html everyone from the fearless to the cautious are in limbo land at the moment after the abortive and suspect retracement (red circle). I suppose the really fearless could still be tempted into a long if the action stays above 6252 and a potential swinglow appears. Most, however, will be waiting for a break from the 6252 - 6611 (maybe 6535) range to set the direction even though the swing trend is still up.

good trading

jon

At midday the FTSE shows today as a swing low. I am looking for a bullish afternoon from the Dow and to enter long shortly before our close. Although this would be bullish on UK equities I am already long on gold as a hedge.

tomorton said:

At midday the FTSE shows today as a swing low. I am looking for a bullish afternoon from the Dow and to enter long shortly before our close. Although this would be bullish on UK equities I am already long on gold as a hedge.

Click to expand...

Hi Tom,
QQQQ, SPY and DIA are all above yesterday's closing prices and drifting higher pre-market around yesterday's highs of the day. All of which bodes well for a bullish performance from the DOW when it opens. However, it's very early in the day and the situation could of course change very rapidly.
Tim.

FTSE long stopped out this morning but the cost was within the 2% rule and the gold long hedged the losses. Dow suggests we might form a swing low on the FTSE tomorrow, looking to go long again late pm if the Dow continues to rally. However, not a large position as the Dow does not look strong, there will be time to add to the position if the Dow leads us upwards again through its 200EMA.

Jumped in pre-open with a small long as Feb FTSE future then already printing an up day. Will hopefully be confirmed by index itself and I will add to long this pm as per original plan.

tomorton said:

Jumped in pre-open with a small long as Feb FTSE future then already printing an up day. Will hopefully be confirmed by index itself and I will add to long this pm as per original plan.

Click to expand...

hi, tom

I see you're in the fearless camp

Yesterday's low breached the earlier swing low by 10 points. Not much, but to some enough to change the swing trend - for others it's the first warning light of a change, the next will be a close below that level.

good trading

jon

hope its ok to post here

still short the FTSE today was looking for 208 later today to take a positional trade but given price action so far 219 will do, these are cash price position will be taken on futures