Would you trade a coin toss?

Tubbs said:
I never said I wasn't trading for profits.

I don't really see why just because everyone follows nonsensical rubbish that it becomes self fulfilling. Everyone follows different indicators,

I'm sorry to offend people - just want a bit of healthy debate as I'm going through a crisis of faith. Please someone - show me the light...........please?
Click to expand...

Intraday trading is random, there is no doubt about that in my mind. One example is yesterday's NEXT PLC. Bad Trading statement results in a fall of 54p. No one is going to convince me that the Next price is not over reacting but , if the statement had been optimistic the price would have shot up. Panic and greed are what moves intraday trading and coin tossing is one way to come to a decision, put a stop on it and walk away to something more interesting.

Next PLC made me a lot of money several years ago and that was by studying the fudamentals.
It still works today. When the well managed company has been spotted, then TA comes into it.
Not the other way around.

Split
 
Splitlink said:
Next PLC made me a lot of money several years ago and that was by studying the fudamentals.
It still works today. When the well managed company has been spotted, then TA comes into it.
Not the other way around.

Split
Click to expand...

:eek:
Equally, TA spots a well/badly-managed company.
eg; 52-week high/low, closing above/below 200-MA, etc.

Isnt this the basis of all the stock-scanning software ?
Use TA to identify opportunity ( well-managed companies ) ?

The other side of the coin ( just to keep this thread ontrack ) :)
 
trendie said:
:eek:
Equally, TA spots a well/badly-managed company.
eg; 52-week high/low, closing above/below 200-MA, etc.

Isnt this the basis of all the stock-scanning software ?
Use TA to identify opportunity ( well-managed companies ) ?

The other side of the coin ( just to keep this thread ontrack ) :)
Click to expand...

I use TA to tell me what good companies are going up, but TA will throw the lousy ones in with the good. You have to know which ones are which. For my trading purposes I use one share, that I consider to be a well managed company, and stay with it. The rest is just hard work and not necessary. With that company I work out my gambling vices and stay away from index trading! ;) I agree with those who feel that interday is a toss of the coin. The 5% who are good at it will never pass their edge on to the rest of us and I don't blame them. Overnight and longer term success, for me, is a mixture of of FA and TA and with that, I can't grumble at the result.

Split
 
I agree about using a small group of stocks to trade. You feel that you understand them, and their nuances.

I must admit, I prefer Indices, ( Dow ), although I am becoming a convert to FX.
( I can now lose money 24 hours a day )

I also agree that intra-day, randomness prevails. But, longer term, patterns appear.
( Whats this one company, if it isnt a secret ? )

Anyway, lets see Effkays results.
 
trendie said:
I agree about using a small group of stocks to trade. You feel that you understand them, and their nuances.

I must admit, I prefer Indices, ( Dow ), although I am becoming a convert to FX.
( I can now lose money 24 hours a day )

I also agree that intra-day, randomness prevails. But, longer term, patterns appear.
( Whats this one company, if it isnt a secret ? )

Anyway, lets see Effkays results.
Click to expand...

Remember what I said about an edge? That is classified information! No. the reason is that if I say what it is it will, surely, go against me and every other poor sod who trades it! :LOL:

Nevertheless, it is a Footsie component, follows its movements fairly well and can be traded overnight without the risk of overnight index trading.
 
Ok using the sequence I suggested, you would have gone short on breach this morning at 3239 with a stop at 3267, and taken profits at 3211 within the next hour.

You would have then wanted to be a buyer, before 9 but there was no breach, so stay put. Again wanting to buybefore 10 but nothing.

More results as they come....as for now 56 pips in profit (call it 50 allowing for spreads etc)
 
a bit off topic, but surely a dice roll would play a bit better, as you can allow for certain other things, e.g. to stay flat, or to go heavily long, short etc.
 
Effkay said:
a bit off topic, but surely a dice roll would play a bit better, as you can allow for certain other things, e.g. to stay flat, or to go heavily long, short etc.
Click to expand...

You do realise, that at some point, a major realisation will take place, and then we will dispense with both coins and dice ??!!
 
Effkay said:
Nah...I reckon luck is the way forward!! :)
Click to expand...

Effkay,

which coin are you using ? ( when I did my experiment I used a Spanish 500 peseta coin )

do you think some coins are more "lucky" than others ? :)
 
Ok followng the first trade.....sold at 3181 bought back at 3167

And current position bought at 3196, stop 3163 take profit at 3229, so if this bar (4-5) or subsequent bars break 3163 before 3229 then it will be the first loss of the day

so far +60 in profit!
 
last trade was a loss -33

overall +37 profit look to short the 6-7bar on breach of 5-6 low
 
given that you have stop-loss of 20, and take profit of 40, what would the outcome have been if the heads/tails events had been reversed ??

since every event would potentially be slanted in favour of taking more profit than loss, the direction should be irrelevant.

would it have still resulted in a profit ??

now, that WOULD clinch the argument !!
 
It wouldn't for my system, as it looks for a breach for entry, and so this morning for example a heads would have kept you out of the trade altogether. (Today's results are a bit botched by the way, they should actually be better than they are, as I took profits too early on the second trade, and so the 3rd trade should never have been entered!) NEver mind, I shall start again tomorrow, what I will do is post the rsults for the entire day around 9pm (UK)
 
Well here I am advocating the use of (or at least testing) a coin toss system, I an't dismiss one based on lunar cycles!!
 
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