FetteredChinos
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lunar cycles do have their place in the markets.. the key is working out which ones.
and of course including non-trading days when establishing turning points...
a320 and TomH are your men for this over on TacticalTrader.
their knowledge never fails to amaze me.
FC
and of course including non-trading days when establishing turning points...
a320 and TomH are your men for this over on TacticalTrader.
their knowledge never fails to amaze me.
FC
Effkay,
What are the profits/loss for the week; how many trades were done etc.?
Have you been down to the Patent Office yet? Think of all the profits you can make once there is a proven track record for this innovative system. It cannot be any worse than most of the nonsense that people peddle for large sums of money and you have not spent years developing it either.
What are the profits/loss for the week; how many trades were done etc.?
Have you been down to the Patent Office yet? Think of all the profits you can make once there is a proven track record for this innovative system. It cannot be any worse than most of the nonsense that people peddle for large sums of money and you have not spent years developing it either.
trendie
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Effkay said:
Dont be disheartened with just a few tests.
This week, my test SB account went from £1,110 on Monday to a peak of £1,616 on Wednesday.
It is currently at £1,483.
I have had 3 winning days, and two losing.
Its the long-term game that counts.
trendie
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LION63 said:
If you read the "Chart of 10,000 coin tosses" you will find I have got "bagsies" on selling special trading-coins. :cheesy:
Also, pkfryer has got a patent on a secret tea-leaf mixture to use to predict the markets.
Whatever happened to pkfryer ?
damianoakley
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REF: Random Entry
I've seen this thread quite late on, so missed the first 8 pages, but I've certainly been down this road before on another thread.
Profits CAN be made with random entry in any liquid market - as long as the trader uses good position sizing and a good exit strategy. Entry is one of the least important aspects of trading, but the whole trading community across the globe is obsessed with good entry signals.
I've seen this thread quite late on, so missed the first 8 pages, but I've certainly been down this road before on another thread.
Profits CAN be made with random entry in any liquid market - as long as the trader uses good position sizing and a good exit strategy. Entry is one of the least important aspects of trading, but the whole trading community across the globe is obsessed with good entry signals.
right guys, I'm done with this thread....to be honest I don't have time to trade the method I suggested so far the method is at around breakeven, and I don't really have time to pursue it, if anyone else wants to take over....Go for it!
Otherwise...I'm on the dice trading thread (yeah yeah keep the sniggers to yourself!
)
Otherwise...I'm on the dice trading thread (yeah yeah keep the sniggers to yourself!
)Rhody Trader
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What damianoakley says is right, though I would add one thing - volatility. You need a market with sufficient movement.
damianoakley
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Fire away then mate - please elaborate on the "completely utterly mathematically wrong" bit.
I'm genuinely interested to hear your thoughts and opinions.
I'm genuinely interested to hear your thoughts and opinions.
henry766 said:
Well, some do try to get right down to the nitty gritty. I'm sure that there are lots of books on the subject. Personally, I think that you either try to figure it out with statistics or fundamentals or you pack it in and go to the track. Unless, of course, you can't figure out whether the nag likes hard ground or mud.
split
damianoakley
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TO HENRY766:
What is your reply above supposed to mean?
I asked you to explain yourself................you said before that I was "completely mathematically wrong".
Please back that up with "the maths" and explain why i'm "utterly wrong".
Thanks
Damian
PS - I won't be able to be back online again until Wednesday or Thursday evening, so please don't think I'm ignoring your if I don't reply straight away. Cheers
What is your reply above supposed to mean?
I asked you to explain yourself................you said before that I was "completely mathematically wrong".
Please back that up with "the maths" and explain why i'm "utterly wrong".
Thanks
Damian
PS - I won't be able to be back online again until Wednesday or Thursday evening, so please don't think I'm ignoring your if I don't reply straight away. Cheers
damianoakley
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Just before we go off course here, I think I should re-clarify what I'm actually stating is possible.
People seem to just hear the word "random" and flip.
What I'm saying is:
It is possible over the medium to long-term to make profits from random entry. That means tossing a coin to decide whether to go long or short in the market. The position sizing and exit strategies would be fixed.
Look at the above carefully. The ONLY part of the system that is decided by a coin-toss is the decision to go long or short..............nothing else.
People just assume that "random" means a totally random system with no rules. That's not what I mean.
A system with random exit strategies or random positon sizing would not work.
People seem to just hear the word "random" and flip.
What I'm saying is:
It is possible over the medium to long-term to make profits from random entry. That means tossing a coin to decide whether to go long or short in the market. The position sizing and exit strategies would be fixed.
Look at the above carefully. The ONLY part of the system that is decided by a coin-toss is the decision to go long or short..............nothing else.
People just assume that "random" means a totally random system with no rules. That's not what I mean.
A system with random exit strategies or random positon sizing would not work.
damianoakley said:
Would you toss a coin on which direction a bus will run away on a hill? The same with a share in medium or long term trend. I'd try to find a better system than that because the fact that you know the trend is a factor in your favour. I suppose you could toss a coin on when you will sell. Will I get a better price today or tomorrow, for instance, but I think that it is imprudent to go long when the share has been dropping for days.
Split
trendie
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I think the problem here is that the ground rules regarding "random" may not have been clearly stated.
Damianoakley, it may be useful to re-state them, so that recent readers dont have to re-read all 11 pages of this thread !!
My understanding is that random is dependant on time-frame.
Yes, each coin-flip is random. The result is NOT affected by the previous flips.
However, over a large enough trial, they WILL tend towards 50/50.
Dice throws ARE random. You CANNOT guess which number, from 1-6 will fall.
But, over a large enough set of trials, the numbers WILL tend towards 1/6.
Radio-active decay IS random. But it can be quantified mathematically. ( go figure )
This is the great paradox of randomness. There IS order from chaos.
We have the ability to mathematically quantify something that is, wait for it, random.
We CAN quantify randomness mathematically.
SO, damian, please restate your definitions, and continue.
Damianoakley, it may be useful to re-state them, so that recent readers dont have to re-read all 11 pages of this thread !!
My understanding is that random is dependant on time-frame.
Yes, each coin-flip is random. The result is NOT affected by the previous flips.
However, over a large enough trial, they WILL tend towards 50/50.
Dice throws ARE random. You CANNOT guess which number, from 1-6 will fall.
But, over a large enough set of trials, the numbers WILL tend towards 1/6.
Radio-active decay IS random. But it can be quantified mathematically. ( go figure )
This is the great paradox of randomness. There IS order from chaos.
We have the ability to mathematically quantify something that is, wait for it, random.
We CAN quantify randomness mathematically.
SO, damian, please restate your definitions, and continue.
Last edited:
danfreek
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Random entry in a strong trend should be very profitable providing that it is based on a good risk reward ratio for the stops and profit targets. Using the example you gave, imaging that we are going to trade a random entry in a stock (or whatever) in a strong downtrend.
If heads means go long and tails means go short and we place a stop at 10 points and take profits at 40 points, then we have a random entry with a good r/r ratio. We have already assumed the price is going down and because of the random entry we can assume that we go long 50% of the time and go short 50% of the time, but when we are long we lose 10 points, but if short we win 40 pints, we should end up 30 in profit * the number of trades minus spread and commission. Clearly in practice it wouldn't always work like that, so I wouldn't recomend trading on a random entry. The theory behind it is very encouraging, there are just too many assumptions and not enough control over the system.
If heads means go long and tails means go short and we place a stop at 10 points and take profits at 40 points, then we have a random entry with a good r/r ratio. We have already assumed the price is going down and because of the random entry we can assume that we go long 50% of the time and go short 50% of the time, but when we are long we lose 10 points, but if short we win 40 pints, we should end up 30 in profit * the number of trades minus spread and commission. Clearly in practice it wouldn't always work like that, so I wouldn't recomend trading on a random entry. The theory behind it is very encouraging, there are just too many assumptions and not enough control over the system.
