Surely using a coin toss as a basis for trading decisions is a mugs game looking at the probability, since the coin and the market are unrelated.
What I mean is presuming u toss a head (meaning go long)
thats a 1/2 chance
The market has a 1/2 chance of going up( simplistic view!),
so the chance of you making the correct trade is 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4
So from a probability point of view you only have a 1/4 chance of success?
Anyone agree? Or should I shut up now?!!![Confused :confused: :confused:](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7)
What I mean is presuming u toss a head (meaning go long)
thats a 1/2 chance
The market has a 1/2 chance of going up( simplistic view!),
so the chance of you making the correct trade is 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4
So from a probability point of view you only have a 1/4 chance of success?
Anyone agree? Or should I shut up now?!!