wot happened next revisited

[PKFFW]

off-piste tomorrow so here's CANDLE 13 a bit early

1: Large gap up opening and new high all indicate strength.
2: Came a long way off it's high and closed down. Clearly sellers took charge at some point during this candle being printed.
3: Large volume increase on a bearish candle would tend to indicate to me that sellers now have control.

I'd be putting my stop under the low of candle 12 just to give it a bit more room to see how it plays out.

If I had to make a prediction I'd be guessing price will be heading down. This up move hasn't seemed hugely strong and this last candle seems to indicate sellers have the upper hand.

Cheers,
PKFFW

 

[fibonelli]

I personally don't like to see candles (#12 and #13) with top tails exceeding the body. Volume is well above average on #13 suggesting old supply just above. I think candle #14 will be a small IB near the close of #13 or a large red body. The price action suggests that there would be bearish regular momentum divergence.

Flat, awaiting #14.

 

[Vrothdar]

off piste tomorrow so here's CANDLE 13 a bit early

I'd be moving my stop up to the low of candle 12 to guarantee a small profit on my second trade but give a little room for movement.

 

[rags2riches]

This is nearly a pinbar. The high volume may show lots of sellers moving in as price tried to move higher and this candle should serve as a warning sign of an impending down move.

In addition the strength of the upthrust from candles 9-13 is less than the upthrust from candles 1-8 showing that buying strength is petering out.

Move my stop to below the low of candle 12, giving a little more room than Barjon.

 

[barjon]

and CANDLE 14

 

[superspurs]

sellers had achance to run with the ball but they dropped it,more upside

 

[PKFFW]

and CANDLE 14

1: No downward pressure from the open and a higher close than previous candle. Would seem to indicate that there are still some buyers around.
2: Price did come off the high and didn't make new high though. Showing buying pressure isn't being sustained.
3: Reduced volume showing that sellers aren't really interested in driving the price down hard.
4: Doesn't seem to be much activity one way or the other just now.

I'm happy to keep my stop where it is under candle 12.

Cheers,
PKFFW

 

[Vrothdar]

Also keeping my stop under the low of 12.

 

[millsy500]

candle 13, first sign of weakness
candle 14, no demand bar. Next bar down...

 

[barjon]

............and CANDLE 15

 

[fibonelli]

Although #14 was an inside bar as I'd guessed (see post 82 above). It had low volume. I didn't think it was overly bearish as the close>open.
#15 clearly evidences supply is still immediately above. Volume was slightly below that of #13. The interesting point is close>open again and the open was the same as the #14 close.
Flat, waiting for #16 which may be a narrow range bar like #3 or #12.

 

[millsy500]

............and CANDLE 15

Bar 15,upthrust on volume. Another weak bar.
3 week bars in a row. Possibly some distibution going on.

Closed long position for a profit: (million bucks I think)

I'm going to play aggressive on this and reverse to short.

 

[PKFFW]

............and CANDLE 15

1: Clear rejection of the high would indicate to me that sellers are entering the market in droves around this area.
2: Increased volume confirms the above.
3: As has been mentioned by others, this entire up move from candle 5 or 6 doesn't seem to have much impetus behind it.
4: Candles 13 and 15 look like what my limited understanding of a "blow off" would look like.

I'd be moving my stop to below low of candle 14. If it breaks that I'd be pretty sure the move is over.

Cheers,
PKFFW

 

[superspurs]

a shake out,hold with stop under candle 15 (but profit should have been banked on the big up move)

 

[rags2riches]

............and CANDLE 15

By candle 14 I would have expected a move down due to the low volume possibly indicating lack of buying interest. I would have trailed the stop to below the low of candle 13.

Candle 15 is another nearly pinbar on high volume indicating more sellers moving in. I am expecting a move down soon so I trail the stop to the low of candle 14.

 

[barjon]

...and here's the last, a bit early since I'm away again for a few days.

That's it then - want another one?

good trading

jon

 

[dick_dastardly]

That's it then - want another one?

good trading

jon

Yes please do, but would it be possible to put the raw price data into excel so that the chart could be made to unfold as if it were in real time rather than just cut and paste from a historical chart if you see what I mean.




dd

 

[Vrothdar]

Well I'd have been caught by the massive gap down on the last candle and would have exited asap.

Result: Exited too early on my first trade - still a profitable trade
Second trade was a smallish loss.

 

[bracke]

barjon

I see you are still playing with your candles and no doubt burning them at both ends. It's time you moved on to more serious methods ie: s/r, you know it makes sense.

Regards

bracke

ps Is mr marcus still posting?

 

[rags2riches]

...and here's the last, a bit early since I'm away again for a few days.

That's it then - want another one?

good trading

jon

Well I got completely suckered by that gap down!! Lesson learnt for next time.

Do you care to reveal which instrument this was Barjon? I take it that it was an EOD equity.

More please - this is good practice!