wot happened next revisited

[dick_dastardly]

I'm sorry barjon but I'm afraid there's only one thing that jumps out at me from your chart and that's the big area of fresh air above the red line.

It's almost as if that red line is at the centre of the price action ( or will be )

or are you just being sneaky and did that on purpose to get us to go long before the drop


dd

 

[Vrothdar]

I would now move the stop to BE. Putting the stop below candle 4 could be a bit too close if stop hunting occurs. Now that I have a free trade I just sit back and relax.

I hadn't considered that. Going to stick by my decision when I posted but in future I'll take that into consideration.

 

[mb325]

Volume is something i've never used, and i'm only just starting to learn and understand price action but in an effort to keep this thread going...

I'd expect the next candle to be bearish. This is purely because the three bullish candles in the diagram show the highest levels of volume, suggesting to me that there are a lot of buyers BELOW the red line. The 5th candle which tested the red line closed up, but with nowhere near the levels of volume of the previous bulls, suggesting to me that there aren't a lot of buyers ABOVE the red line.

Maybe people who bought on the 'breakout' will get worried over the retracement and start selling, or people's stops will start getting hit...

 

[Bladerunner]

its only Paper money and we still care, or at least I do

Back to the start

I "ll have a stab at it again, last post was a bit brief but it was a working day when I posted and its raining here so ~

My thought........sssssssss

Just noticed that quite a few posts including mine have started to manage Jons position which was not really the point in the exercise, just goes to show where the brain wants to focus when paper money is on the line



1st thing that came in to my mind when I saw Jon"s chart in post one ~

The instrument ( Bull Candle 1 ) is in new higher ground and Jon"s entry Bull candle failed to make a new high that day so perhaps not a young move = I don"t like the look of that


Where is the instrument ?

think we have a number of demand ranges lower see told you I had been paying attention

The move looks a bit tired and no volume on the last bar = no pro money supporting higher prices.

Prive action will need to generate some more upside fuel I think.

Volume = do not think its a top just yet so Main High high prob not in yet

I favour the Birth of a new range

Jons trade, I would close out on the close of the last bar based on above thoughts, the volume drop off on the last bar gives me no reason to stay any longer. I expect the spin top candle to mark what will be the new top of our range or there abouts and watch for the moment.

I am expecting or would be looking for

1) price to fall back possibly just below all the candles shown, move will be nothing to scary then rally on obviously higher volume, I would expect the move to again run out of steam at the top of the range and repeat. = draw in new fuel / market participants into the boiler ready to be be burnt

or

2) price to move lower and test Jon"s obvious entry location = Head up = Volume increasing decreasing etc, price could give a very loud and clear message that longs are still very ok if price action confirms following the test on lower volume = to easy who wants us to no longs are still ok = eyes on volume and days range etc



Thats about all I see from the information so far

well apart from

putting the last five candles together would give quite a nice candle on good volume compared to the previous Five ,

Test of high / = sellers starting to become more active volume combined looks higher on the combined re-test.





Jon"s trade ~ Changed my mind again

its a good game this, you invent it Jon ? ~

Volume does not or I do not think it looks like a top just yet so ~

Stop to BE + cost = freeplay = always a good position for a numpty who can"t make his mind up Wot"s going to happen next


= if test bar thought plays out = pro money still supporting the move, they would be more aggresive in the down bar otherwise. They want a numpty like me still in for the moment, infact they want every numpty still in. Do not want to cause a rush for the exits just yet.

A nice easy to spot test bar on low volume will keep the higher low still in play and be very visable to many this could attract the new fuel / new market participants required to propel price higher. They perhaps missed the inicial break (Jon"s Bar) and jump at the chance (greed) not wishing to miss out = a rush to buy the following day


We could then see a fast upside move before everyone gets bored and starts to wander off = supply starts to increase at these levels. This would or could be a real pain for the pro"s who want to get price higher before they start to off load their or some of their stock perhaps at much higher levels.



Good weekend all


Andy



Watching with interest, good thread again Jon

Just read this post back to myself and Bl...dy glad the trades at BE

 

[options]

...and CANDLE 5 for those still following along. Next one not 'til Monday I'm afraid.

K, Coming to this thread a little late. I won't say what I would have done, Just what I would do next. (Unless anyone knows a broker that will let me trade with hindsight?).
I would be buying 5 points above red line OR Selling 3 points under previous body high. (2nd bar back). This covers either way to get yourself into a trade, and then it can be managed. I think it may go higher, but what I think doesn't really come into it! The chart will tell soon enough.
I haven't read Barjohns' comments as they are his views and may influence any views that I form. The red line is just that. Can't attach any importance to it other than being where the last high point is on the chart.
Chart is probably a daily chart and is not my type of trading. But nonetheless a chart is a chart.
Hardly taken any notice of the volume as it is around the atr. But. The first volume bar and the second from last volume bar are attached to above higher volume buying candles. While the volume bars in between could be showing hidden accumulation by market pros.

Given the last price bar. It should be a nice move either way. Would have been nice though to have seen a lot more of the previous price bars.

All this is assuming That Barjohn has presented us with a 'straight' chart and not turned the price chart upside down again. (Little tinker that he is).

 

[barjon]

ah, well I am a sneaky fellow and a bit of a tinker so now for CANDLE 6

 

[PKFFW]

ah, well I am a sneaky fellow and a bit of a tinker so now for CANDLE 6

1: Break of the previous candle high and the old high and held above the old high. Shows to me there is still some buying interest. How much though?
2: Volume around average. Seems to show there is no real urgency from either sellers or buyers. Fact price held above old resistance would make me favour buyers still control the market at this point.
3: Retraced from it's high almost back to opening though. This would indicate again that whilst there are certainly buyers around, there is not a real urgency from those buyers.

I'd be moving my stop in tight under the previous candle in order to get out if resistance doesn't become support.

Cheers,
PKFFW

 

[Vrothdar]

I think there's probably some more life in this move yet. I'd be moving my stop up to the close of candle 5 as I'd not be comfortable watching the price drop back as far as the low before closing. I suspect that the next candle is going to be a much larger one than the last two with either a short wick either on the high or the low depending on which direction it moves.

 

[kenobi]

its a short and it will take the lows.

 

[JTrader]

ah, well I am a sneaky fellow and a bit of a tinker so now for CANDLE 6

I think the next candle could still go up, given the HH,HL and higher close of the last candle, and the fact that the high low and close, were all above the previous R level formed from the high of the 1st candle on the chart, and so this may well act as minor support. However, the last bar looked a bit pinbarish (though not quite, as the candle closed above its open), so would be wary of a reversal down forming.




When interpreting the candles. I think the idea of not colour coding the candles is important. Or, at least recognising for example that a candle can close up, but everything else from the previous candle/s is saying - go short. One might not necessarily think of, or be comfortable with looking for the reversal - i.e. selling into strength & buying into weakness, but sometimes this can be the best thing to do, as the outcome will prove.

 

[Bladerunner]

New day = New Brain

Back to the start

I "ll have a stab at it again, last post was a bit brief but it was a working day when I posted and its raining here so ~

My thought........sssssssss

Just noticed that quite a few posts including mine have started to manage Jons position which was not really the point in the exercise, just goes to show where the brain wants to focus when paper money is on the line



1st thing that came in to my mind when I saw Jon"s chart in post one ~

The instrument ( Bull Candle 1 ) is in new higher ground and Jon"s entry Bull candle failed to make a new high that day so perhaps not a young move = I don"t like the look of that


Where is the instrument ?

think we have a number of demand ranges lower see told you I had been paying attention

The move looks a bit tired and no volume on the last bar = no pro money supporting higher prices.

Prive action will need to generate some more upside fuel I think.

Volume = do not think its a top just yet so Main High high prob not in yet

I favour the Birth of a new range

Jons trade, I would close out on the close of the last bar based on above thoughts, the volume drop off on the last bar gives me no reason to stay any longer. I expect the spin top candle to mark what will be the new top of our range or there abouts and watch for the moment.

I am expecting or would be looking for

1) price to fall back possibly just below all the candles shown, move will be nothing to scary then rally on obviously higher volume, I would expect the move to again run out of steam at the top of the range and repeat. = draw in new fuel / market participants into the boiler ready to be be burnt

or

2) price to move lower and test Jon"s obvious entry location = Head up = Volume increasing decreasing etc, price could give a very loud and clear message that longs are still very ok if price action confirms following the test on lower volume = to easy who wants us to no longs are still ok = eyes on volume and days range etc



Thats about all I see from the information so far

well apart from

putting the last five candles together would give quite a nice candle on good volume compared to the previous Five ,

Test of high / = sellers starting to become more active volume combined looks higher on the combined re-test.





Jon"s trade ~ Changed my mind again

its a good game this, you invent it Jon ? ~

Volume does not or I do not think it looks like a top just yet so ~

Stop to BE + cost = freeplay = always a good position for a numpty who can"t make his mind up Wot"s going to happen next


= if test bar thought plays out = pro money still supporting the move, they would be more aggresive in the down bar otherwise. They want a numpty like me still in for the moment, infact they want every numpty still in. Do not want to cause a rush for the exits just yet.

A nice easy to spot test bar on low volume will keep the higher low still in play and be very visable to many this could attract the new fuel / new market participants required to propel price higher. They perhaps missed the inicial break (Jon"s Bar) and jump at the chance (greed) not wishing to miss out = a rush to buy the following day


We could then see a fast upside move before everyone gets bored and starts to wander off = supply starts to increase at these levels. This would or could be a real pain for the pro"s who want to get price higher before they start to off load their or some of their stock perhaps at much higher levels.



Good weekend all


Andy



Watching with interest, good thread again Jon

Just read this post back to myself and Bl...dy glad the trades at BE

volume on 3rd candle back is starting to bother me, its pretty high and its narrow spread is bearish

Next two candles are narrow ranges and closing on their lows, small gap ups are bear"ish also

do not like above at all, played with the idea of moving Stop up close this am and in fact posted and deleted

decided to leave it at BE + cost + a Kit Kat for me and wait for test and check volume etc




Thoughts

pro"s short some

numpty stops get hit, volume picks up to the downside (retail shorts)

price action takes out the stops under the whole range

pro"s step in and buy back aggressive and absorb any supply at the lower levels and reverse price back up (pinbar"ish)

long term players are kept happy when they see the quick reverse

some shorts are trapped wrong side

numpties who had their stops hit and realise their error re-enter market Long

range in place so other traders enter market Long

silly shorts are forced to cover as price advances

Activity generates fuel =

price runs up volume up into the highs = real breakout when the remaining early shorts who entered at the numpty stop area start to cover also

Morning Gap ~ Gone


Decided to leave it at BE + cost + a Kit Kat for me(Jon"s money ) and wait for test and check volume


Andy

 

[rags2riches]

Candle 6 has the open and close at the bottom end of the candle (a bearish signal) suggesting a possible retrace below the red line soon.

If the red line holds as support on the next candle then it would be forming a pivot line (resistance turned support), so I would expect price to move up.

Assuming a move down below the red line I would be watching the size of the move very carefully to determine if this is just a retracement or a reversal.

Time to lock in some profits so I move my stop to just below the low of candle 3.

No cause for panic just yet.

 

[barjon]

.....and CANDLE 7

btw way chaps is this ok day by day or would you like to speed up a bit?

 

[JTrader]

.....and CANDLE 7

btw way chaps is this ok day by day or would you like to speed up a bit?

day by day fine for me. encourages input, and i dont see a big rush.

Long/Up.
I'm guessing the high was set first on the last bar, then the low, then the retrace up to near the open price. This one could go either way, as the last candle didn't set a HH, but made a HL, and closed on its open price, after making waht i guess to be a recovery, b4 the close, though i could be wrong as the low may have occurred b4 the high.
However, due to the pinbarish look to the last candle and the fact the it did not close down, and the fact that there is a HL, and the big gap up on the open b4 an attempt to fill this gap down only for a likely recovery up to occur b4 the close, i expect to see further upwards movement.

 

[Vrothdar]

.....and CANDLE 7

btw way chaps is this ok day by day or would you like to speed up a bit?

Seems to me like a bit of an exaggeration of the previous bar - people are waiting to see which direction the market goes in. I'm expecting a big move soon. I'd move my stoploss to the close of candle 5 as I think that if the price reaches this level it'll carry on with quite a bit of strength.

As far as frequency of posting is concerned - I'm quite happy with the pace.

 

[Bladerunner]

1 day at a time is good

1 day at a time is good for me 2

Still do not like these narrow spreads, good thoughts on the Buyer Jon, give that some thought, volume is LOW in new high ground with a narrow spreads and little gap opens

Its gone very quiet .................

Do not like that previous mentioned candle on the high volume Jon, looks like weakness in the background at least in the short term, these narrow spreads / days range"s are

Narrow and the last candle is volume less .........was the USA shut ? no interest = no fuel

Think we are going down before we go up, always the chance of a nice upthrust first so

locking in @

My Stop is up under that high volume candle thats bothering me, thats a little more than 50% by the looks of it by eye Jon ?

Box of kit kats and some good coffee for me unless it gapps me on bad news

thoughts ~

if this markets still strong and your Buyer or any Buyer"s are still active

any test lower than the last 3 bars on low volume(which I would want to see) should be followed by a good volume up bar

Andy

 

[rags2riches]

.....and CANDLE 7

btw way chaps is this ok day by day or would you like to speed up a bit?

Speed is fine for me Barjon - 1 a day allows more time for a careful considered reply.

Well candle 7 looks the market is pausing for breath (not sure if it is exactly an inside bar). There may be a few more bars of consolidation before a strong move (I favour the upside right now).

I reckon in candle 6 the volume increased as sellers stepped in since we were at a new high, but they were unable to push the price down significantly. Very low volume in candle 7 might mean no more sellers for now.

Long position still looks good, red line holding as support. More waiting and being patient.

 

[PKFFW]

.....and CANDLE 7

btw way chaps is this ok day by day or would you like to speed up a bit?

One per day is fine for me to. Gives time to think and read others replies to try to learn more.

1: Nice gap up open shows definite buying interest. Not too worried about the closing of the gap either as(from what I have heard) that happens often and also price held above the previous candle low. So all good signs there.
2: Price did close pretty much at the open which was very near the high however price failed to make a new high.
3: Volume is low and has mostly been below average since getting close to and breaking above resistance. To me, that's not a good sign. Heard it referred to as a "Sharks mouth" once. Price going up, volume going down.......gives a big < shape that looks like a sharks mouth ready to chomp you. Don't know why that has stuck in my head but there you go.

So to me price seems to be saying things are going to go higher but volume seems to be saying there is no true support for the move. I'll freely admit I'm confused. Good thing about trading is you don't have to know what's going to happen, you can manage the trade as it goes.

So........

I'd be keeping my stop just below candle 5. If price retraces to previous resistance and that holds as support it's all good. If it breaks then I'm out with a decent profit.

Cheers,
PKFFW

 

[millsy500]

first pullback on low vol. No real selling interest.
Vol increases on up bars (bullish vol)
last bar is successful test (mark down closer higher, low vol, strength in background) which should mean higher prices....
next bar up

 

[barjon]

...and CANDLE 8