wot happened next revisited

[Bladerunner]

Sitting pat, waiting for the low volume test a little lower into the higher volume areas

Getting emotional here

Can picture a lock in the longs down bar on good volume and range appearing tomorrow

A Fox in the Hen House

Hours in range, tested higher, range to break out with trend after testing the 3rd candle back / the roof of R again

Andy

 

[JTrader]

...and CANDLE 8

Wow, this chart sucks!

Again we have a HL, equal close and a HH. Overall, these still indicate upward momentum, but the price is struggling to close up or move, and so is a sign of a lack of sustained buying interest.
I am therefore more wary now of the possibility of a reversal down. However, because of the HH & HL i still think there is some room for upwards price movement. Plus this candle is not very pinbarish. Therefore, i continue to say - long/up!

So, just to clarify, i have been long/going-looking long since the open of candle 5.

 

[Vrothdar]

Not really sure what to say. Just seems like further confirmation to me that there is a lot of uncertainty in the market.

Part of me wants to say that I'd tighten my stop right up and catch a shorter term short in the reversal/retrace should it occur.

The more conservative part of me says that doing that is too risky (and is pre-empting the market rather than reacting to the market) and that I'd be better off doing nothing right now and hope that I don't get stopped out should a retracement occur.

Going to leave my stop where it was before.

 

[millsy500]

Bar 10 and 11 seem to show some shorters coming in with the top tails ,weak shorts, we must be at a resistance area.Last 2 bars Look to me like 2 tests now, see if theres anymore more shorts out there, before the move up..might even get a shakeout to scare some longs

 

[options]

I would close out, bank a bit of profit and wait for another entry.

 

[rags2riches]

...and CANDLE 8

This is beginning to look like a swing high. Volume is picking up but price remains indecisive. Still waiting for a big move in either direction...

 

[PKFFW]

...and CANDLE 8

1: Seems neither buyers nor sellers are clearly in control here. Hence the doji.
2: Volume picked up slightly from last candle but is still below the average as far as I can see with those candles. So still tells me there isn't a huge amount of interest in this area one way or the other.

Without further information I'm happy to keep my stop where it was. If I had to guess I'd say a retrace towards the red line is on offer where we may find support.

If I'm at all psychic my dream of last night will come true..........retrace to just above the low of candle 5 over the period of about 8 candles then a big bullish candle on larger volume signalling the start of the next big upmove.

I really need a hobby! Surely dreaming about trading means I need a hobby right??

Cheers,
PKFFW

 

[superfly]

if it breaks the high of bar 8 by a tick I would be long with a stop under bar 7 (minus a tick) to traiscalp a potental big up bar.

 

[Splitlink]

1: Seems neither buyers nor sellers are clearly in control here. Hence the doji.
2: Volume picked up slightly from last candle but is still below the average as far as I can see with those candles. So still tells me there isn't a huge amount of interest in this area one way or the other.

Without further information I'm happy to keep my stop where it was. If I had to guess I'd say a retrace towards the red line is on offer where we may find support.

If I'm at all psychic my dream of last night will come true..........retrace to just above the low of candle 5 over the period of about 8 candles then a big bullish candle on larger volume signalling the start of the next big upmove.

I really need a hobby! Surely dreaming about trading means I need a hobby right??

Cheers,
PKFFW

This chart goes to show that, if you keep waiting for another signal, the trade will get away from you. I think that the lowest low, or just below it, should be the stop point once three bars have established themselves above it. That's happened. How much will that risk cost you? Too much? Drop the idea. Otherwise, don't wait any longer-

Split

 

[barjon]

....and CANDLE 9.

For those enjoying their daily fix I'm afraid I'm going to be off-piste for the next week or so. Sorry to be leaving you in the lurch just as our hero has slipped off the path - will he fall to his doom or with one mighty bound........da, da, da, de, da

 

[Bladerunner]

Stop under what looks to be the real test on low Vol

Bull Bar next out the top, if not happy with Stop and trade

relaxed about the freebie and give some real thought to what happens next over the next week

Have a good break Jon

 

[Vrothdar]

Well I've been stopped out. I think I had my stop too tight really as I agree with Barjon's notes.

If the price passes the open of candle 9 I'll be going long. Shame that I'd be paying twice the commission and missing out a chunk of the move but that's what you get for putting stops too tight I suppose.

Even if that's the only lesson I learn from this thread it's been a worthwhile exercise

 

[JTrader]

....and CANDLE 9.

For those enjoying their daily fix I'm afraid I'm going to be off-piste for the next week or so. Sorry to be leaving you in the lurch just as our hero has slipped off the path - will he fall to his doom or with one mighty bound........da, da, da, de, da

Candle 9 has a LH, LL & a lower close, so i expect price to go further down. I'd be looking to short on the open of the next candle, unless there was a significant gap up, which would make me stay flat.
It did close back above the red line, after testing below it, but i don't know the significance of the red line, whether Barjon left it there as a clue, as per the white line also.....personally I've tried to ignore both lines, as they're not mine.

Also, if i draw an imaginary trendline connecting the bottoms of the candle from candle 2 upwards. Candle 9's close (& possibly even candles 8's close actually, on hindsight)signalled a breakout from this, porividing a further clue to a pending move downwards.

 

[options]

Well, I'm in a tiny bit of profit :clap: (Smug basstard)

Poss fall down, but holding entry.

If Barjohn is going on the piste he should take us with him!

 

[millsy500]

Another low volume retrace, I've just gone long ....

 

[superfly]

FOR NOW (*) i have no positon yet:

if it breaks the high of bar 8 by a tick I would be long with a stop under bar 7(minus a tick) to traillscalp a potental big up bar.

with bar 9 the evidecebalance in the presented context ticked to the short side
so short, if price should brakebelow bar 9 on weak volume

however if price should regain upstrength than
go long, if price should brakeabove bar 8 on strong volume

when the market grants an entry, SET Hardinistops

I lack pricelevels to callibrate and manage entersize and dynamic stopscaleoutsize

-entersize 6,9 or 12 units
-stopscaleoutsize 2,3 or 4 units

*=started monitoring/trading after bar 7

 

[PKFFW]

....and CANDLE 9.

For those enjoying their daily fix I'm afraid I'm going to be off-piste for the next week or so. Sorry to be leaving you in the lurch just as our hero has slipped off the path - will he fall to his doom or with one mighty bound........da, da, da, de, da

1: Lower high and lower lower would signal weakness and possibly lower prices to come.
2: Tested previous resistance, briefly penetrated and now holding above. Good sign but as JT has said, I have no idea how much importance can be attached to that red line. All I know at this stage is it is the point of the last swing high. So will just have to watch it and see.
3: Volume is lower which would indicate to me there still isn't any urgency on the part of the sellers.

Happy to keep my stop where it is (below low of candle 5). I still think this level is showing equilibrium in the market and will break one way or the other. Not sure which.

Cheers,
PKFFW

 

[rags2riches]

....and CANDLE 9.

Well price is retracing on low volume. The red line was tested but pulled back which is a bullish sign. I have no idea at this stage whether this is a retrace before a new breakout or a reversal.

Profit is already secure on this trade with a stop below the low of candle3 so I will attempt to ride out the retrace.

 

[mb325]

3: Volume is lower which would indicate to me there still isn't any urgency on the part of the sellers.

Or that there's no buyers and price had to drop down to attract some?

 

[PKFFW]

Or that there's no buyers and price had to drop down to attract some?

Well yes that goes without saying I would have thought.

What I meant with the line you have quoted was that with volume being so low there obviously isn't alot of activity going on. If there were urgent sellers wanting to get out of their long positions, I would have thought there would be alot more volume as they all scramble to unload. Further, I would expect a bigger downward movement of price if that was the case. Lastly, the fact price moved back up from it's low to nearly the halfway point of the candle shows that sellers are not desperately having to drive price down in order to get out of their positions.

That's just my take of course and I freely admit to not being the best reader of price and volume on these boards.

Cheers,
PKFFW