Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

lemput said:
have to agree with kriesau: the board is good and it provides us with a chance to transmit our opinions and get a decent counter measure to our own ideas.
As to the dow, am I the only one who has no particular view of the dow and am just waiting for a break either way? Quite strange as normally I have ideas to what I think is going to happen, yet right now I have little clue and hence I have not traded it for 2 weeks. I am sure though that we will soon make a run for a break but for me it is a 50/50 where we go.
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Hi Lemput - My view is very bearish on the Dow and I think that we could see it go below 10,000 over the next few months. Why - because we are reaching a critical point in the US economic cycle with an escalating trade deficit, an escalating budget deficit, an asset bubble particularly in the housing market, the signs of growing inflation and further interest rises from the Fed. There is no easy resolution of these problems which are all coalescing at the moment and Greenspan can't keep this tightrope act going for much longer.
However timing is critical and we need a catalyst to really trigger a market drop of 400/500 points which of course will not happen overnight. In the meantime there are still some Bulls out there who have not given up and we can expect to see one or two short term bull rallies before it goes down. I would be extremely nervous going long on the Dow to ride any of these and I'm continually looking to go short. I've run a number of profitable short positions over the past few weeks as it moved down from 10750 and I'm currently short at 10525.
I use fundamentals as well as technical signals (I'm weak on the latter) as my main signal points and I'm hoping to improve my understanding of the technical aspects over time - some of the dialogue on this board is really helpful in that respect.
Anyway thats my take on the current scenario - good luck to everyone here.
 
kriesau said:
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Hi Lemput - My view is very bearish on the Dow and I think that we could see it go below 10,000 over the next few months. Why - because we are reaching a critical point in the US economic cycle with an escalating trade deficit, an escalating budget deficit, an asset bubble particularly in the housing market, the signs of growing inflation and further interest rises from the Fed. There is no easy resolution of these problems which are all coalescing at the moment and Greenspan can't keep this tightrope act going for much longer.
However timing is critical and we need a catalyst to really trigger a market drop of 400/500 points which of course will not happen overnight. In the meantime there are still some Bulls out there who have not given up and we can expect to see one or two short term bull rallies before it goes down. I would be extremely nervous going long on the Dow to ride any of these and I'm continually looking to go short. I've run a number of profitable short positions over the past few weeks as it moved down from 10750 and I'm currently short at 10525.
I use fundamentals as well as technical signals (I'm weak on the latter) as my main signal points and I'm hoping to improve my understanding of the technical aspects over time - some of the dialogue on this board is really helpful in that respect.
Anyway thats my take on the current scenario - good luck to everyone here.

That is very wise, but 10,000 I think is a bit too ambitious bearing in mind the current state of the maket.

Kind Regards.
 
SOCRATES said:
That is very wise, but 10,000 I think is a bit too ambitious bearing in mind the current state of the maket.

Kind Regards.
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Hi Socrates - If the Dow breaches 10360 on the downside where do you think the next level of support will be - 10200 ??
Also if you think that 10,000 is over ambitious do you have a view on the potential Dow low for this year ?
Regards
 
kriesau said:
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Hi Socrates - If the Dow breaches 10360 on the downside where do you think the next level of support will be - 10200 ??
Also if you think that 10,000 is over ambitious do you have a view on the potential Dow low for this year ?
Regards
If that were to happen, and to happen quickly, I would say no floor, until such time as a floor becomes manifest via price behaviour and general market conditions, giving the clue.

I do not have a view on the Dow, I am completely open minded because in the current state of play there is no reliable inference yet concretely manifest.

Kind Regards.
 
With less than an hour to go, looks like today will a NR-7 (narrow-range) day. (range of around 40pts)
Usually precedes a big move.
My money is still on the downside.
(still dont understand fully the nature of volume - still reading!!)
 
Was out today and by the looks of it I didnt miss much!

So we close below 10450. We may test 10400 tomarrow and then may even finish near or above 10500.

(narrow-range) day. (range of around 40pts)
Usually precedes a big move.

Could well get that 'big move' tomarrow.
 
Market Internals
Issues................................................ NYSE ........................................Nasdaq
Advancing .........................................1,408 ...........................................1,062
Declining ...........................................1,832 ..........................................1,950
Unchanged ..........................................164 ..............................................162
Total................................................... 3,404........................................... 3,174

Ratio
Advancers to Decliners ...................0.77............................................... 0.54

Volume
Advancing ....................................514,020,000................................ 523,397,000
Declining ......................................681,714,000 ...............................814,338,000
Unchanged ....................................20,805,000 ..................................26,810,000
Total ...........................................1,216,539,000............................ 1,364,545,000

Doesn't add much to the mix really.
There is not any clear cut bull or bear bias for tomorrow from the internals.
It looks as if it will be sentiment driven, news, and how it's interpreted will provide the direction, which is pretty unpredictable in an index.

cheers d998
 
10356 support w/ 10200 strong support then a rally back near highs or possible break of 11027. This to happen before June 30. Then from the 10984/11027 + - we see Christmas on a downhill slide.
May profitable trades abound whatever direction you choose.
 
Nasdaq and S&P opened in London in negative territory.
Dow is -8 on close at 10440

For frugi I think NR7 shows the narrowest range in previous 7 periods of trading. Some swing traders believe the next bar will give a range breakout.


At 09.00 Dow contract mid is at 10435
 
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ducati998 said:
It looks as if it will be sentiment driven, news, and how it's interpreted will provide the direction, which is pretty unpredictable in an index.
Have to take issue with that - the '... in an index bit' I mean. I don't think an index is any more or less predictable in its reaction to news than any other instrument although it does depend a bit on the news and the particular index. Granted the DJIA is not a tradeable instrument as such but it is a reasonable proxy for the US economy and its derivatives markets can turn over more daily volume than the securities that make up the index proper. Sector specific news can move a sector index without affecting the overall market much, but the potential market moving stuff is just that - market moving. Today's trade figures at 1:30 UK time for example. If they are worse than consensus (ie bigger deficit), then we're not going to see a surge to new highs yet a while (if at all) and especially so because the markets well understand the ability of the powers that be to massage the 'market moving' stuff. In other words, if they're bad, they'll likely be seen as REALLY bad; if they're good, they MAY be just about OK - or something like that
 
Resistance=10522
Support=10384
Pivot=10458
Still can't see the direction - so sideways and a bit uppish inmho
 
hariab said:
sorry guys, am at work at mo (in UK). Wat times the trade data out???
If you ask the question again in clear proper English we may all understand what you mean and give you an answer.
 
The US Deficit is another all-time record and right at the top end of concensus at $61 Billion. I think we can expect a down day.
 
The US Deficit is another all-time record and right at the top end of concensus at $61 Billion. I think we can expect a down day.

Better to expect nothing and if you get what you had wanted to expect, then you will have something.

Provided you don't screw up of course.
 
eCalendar

hariab said:
sorry guys, am at work at mo (in UK). Wat times the trade data out???

It came out at 1.30pm GMT (London), that is 8.30am ET (New York).

If you are interested in up to date data, have a look at the attached calendar from Bloomberg. It lists the most useful reports, gives a consensus of opinion before the data is released and an explanation of why the data is important to investors.

Eg, International Trade. Consensus at Bloomberg was -$59b, actual report was -$61b. Worse than expected, expect a down day.

But it is not quickly updated when the report is released, for that check the big news-wires like reuters or try bloomberg mainpage.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/
 
Good chance of ending above 10400 today. Fed stuff coming out later in the session.
 
a really good downhill luge, and I get stopped out at 10,380, cos of my profit target ! (+140 (short from 10,520))
bet it turns into a 3-digit tumble.
 
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