Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[kriesau]

a really good downhill luge, and I get stopped out at 10,380, cos of my profit target ! (+140 (short from 10,520))
bet it turns into a 3-digit tumble.

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Currently still short from 10525 and I took another short position at 1.30pm at 10430 when the trade deficit was announced. My Nasdaq 100 short at 1490 is also healthy.
However took a big hit on the Nikkei (lost 110 pts) when my long at 11710 hit 11600 about half an hour ago. I only had 3 trades on the Nikkei this year and got wiped out on all of them. Still you can't win em all but it has taken 40% of my current profit on my US shorts.
The rest of the day will probably be significantly influenced by the publication of the Fed minutes at around 7.30pm. Where will the Dow close today ? Closer to 10300 or back up nearer 10400. That is the question !!!!!!!!!!!!111

 

[kriesau]

Support kicking in at around 10365. Can it bounce back up or will it break through and approach 10300 ??

 

[Racer]

There has been failure to break higher recently, AIG the only one holding the dow up today, if that succumbs then ...... lovely drop to come
NasC not looking too hot at all either as it has broken 1980 even more

 

[kriesau]

Seems to be resistance at 10380. I guess that the content of the Fed minutes will be the next catalyst.

 

[User]

Closing above 10400 seems likely but a test of 10350 area before the Fed's info could occur.

Should be volatile. Been in a range for more than two hours now should break out any time now. For some reason I think we'll have a dip before 7.00 and then up towards 10400 after that.

 

[Racer]

Nope too bearish to finish up

 

[trendie]

spike up: speculative SHORT at 10,415 (D4F) !!!!!

 

[Racer]

Right that's that bit of short covering sorted out (on the Dow direction that is)... now back to business.

They can't see those minutes as positive or they must be a right loada ........

 

[kriesau]

Wow what a spike on no meaningful news. Closed my daytrade short at 10411 to take 19 points. Kept my Dow 10525 short and Nasdaq 100 1490 short open. Lets see how far this spike takes the markets up. I'm ready to go short again when it runs out of steam.

 

[kriesau]

I smell a rat. Only 2 of the Dow 30 stocks are up the rest in still in negative territory. Watching for the market to turn down again after this strange euphoria subsides.

 

[kriesau]

spike up: speculative SHORT at 10,415 (D4F) !!!!!

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Hope you had a long stop. The bulls are in full cry but for how long ???????

 

[User]

Nope too bearish to finish up

Right that's that bit of short covering sorted out (on the Dow direction that is)... now back to business.

How bearish is that looking now? That is a great example of solid support. 10365-400 is major support.

One thing I will say: when we break this support area clearly then we'll be at the 2004 lows in no time. Now we test 10700 and it should be a quick ride up.

I'm ready to go short again when it runs out of steam.

In my opinion we're moving higher by around 300 points very soon.

April is a very bullish month in the first year of a presedential cycle. and 10365-400 is major support. Those two reasons are enough for me to buy for the time being. Bought the Dow at 10379. Just kicking myself as I should of bought it much lower!!!!

 

[Racer]

Just one of those days where it takes a little longer to sink in that's all.

 

[User]

You lot might think I've gone a little barmy but I'm looking at the 15 minute chart and I believe we could well end up above 10500 today.

I smell a rat. Only 2 of the Dow 30 stocks are up the rest in still in negative territory. Watching for the market to turn down again after this strange euphoria subsides.

That my friend was an extremely powerful reversal and the chances of it now reversing again to the down side seem very slim.

 

[peterpr]

Well, that's me done for a few days. I aim for 100 points per week off the YM and usually come close. Today I've bagged 60 points on the way down and just closed a long for 90 points on the way back up. 150 points in just two trades. Best day - again - YTD - bloody marvelous.

Trust everyone else bagged at least some of it because you don't get days like that very often - and even when you do it's just toooo easy to miss moves like that last one.

 

[User]

Just one of those days where it takes a little longer to sink in that's all.

So are you suggesting that this reversal is not the real reaction and we may see move towards 10400 or could see the lows again today?

On my chart 10500 seems very likely....

 

[lemput]

crazy day it seems. Bought a tiny long and basically closed it out for nothing- great - having seen the action. Sometimes it is really nice though to sit back and just watch. I guess that is why we keep coming back because the Dow really is rollercoaster sometimes. I agree with you user, A lot of of our resident shorts might just be getting a little stretched!

 

[Racer]

Short covering bounce ( a lot more than I expected though), so depends on how many are doing that. After 20:00 the reall trading will happen

 

[lemput]

on the other hand i buy a lot of yen which keeps me busy!!! do any of you guys do a little forex as well?

 

[trendie]

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Hope you had a long stop. The bulls are in full cry but for how long ???????

Ive done it again.
I logically shorted, and made 140 points in about 4 days.
Then, I lose all control, short for no obvious reason, and lose half my gains in about 20 minutes.
Happens ALL the time!