Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[gmca686]

Rudeboy,
Do you get Air Miles with the number of your posts ??

 

[SOCRATES]

I therefore see no valid reason for endless dissemination about an arena whose rules of engagement are the opposite to the opinions, aspirations, hopes and beliefs of the people who choose to discuss what are merciless protocols but from a series of viewpoints not in harmony with the reality of what really it is.

This is not my fault, but it is yours. When you are able to look and observe all of this through the correct pipe through which to view the market, you develop the ability to be consistently right, which is what I consistently am, and I am sorry if this serves to annoy some members but if and when I make a statement it is the result of looking down the correct pipe with care, and the resulting view can be subjected to the most ferocious and detailed examination, and, both at the time and afterwards, can be proved to be unerrringly (and probably very annoyingly ) right. I very much doubt with my track record that from now on I am suddenly going to acquire the habit of being consistently wrong. So therefore that does not arise.

What is the case is that I joined this website on 24th April, 2004. I allowed myself one year to fully explore what all this discussion is all about and its relevance. I have arrived at several conclusions. These conclusions are that there are truly very few people who truly understand worldwide what this is all about, although everybody pretends to do so. It may be the case that traders are born, not made. The year expires in 15 days.

KInd Regards As Usual.

May I take this opportunity to invite you to enlighten us, on a realtime basis, as to the daily movements on the Dow. I note that you promised Chartman that you would refrain from such activities....... but I won't tell him if you don't !!![/QUOTE]
The Dow is not the fierce beast many traders think it is because of its vast movements.
The Dow is driven by really serious forces, some domestic, some foreign, and often a mixture of both. This makes it very liquid and very fast, and , consequently there is no room for mistakes in reading it accurately. I have in the past posted forecasts on the Dow and I am pleased to tell you all of them have been pinsharp. I have not lost my touch, I assure you, but my dilemma is that I have a huge mission to fulfil in the next three years and my time for me will become more precious than it already is. It is a question of finding the time to do it. I promise you that whenever there is a slot, I will do my best, as I am not leaving the site, but my posting will have to be seriously curtailed or even ended because of my new workload, which will require my full and undivided attention.

Kind Regards.

 

[SOCRATES]

Or, should i say, fancy a crack at the Dow! I know your not a chancer!

Hello Rudeboy, I have done it live on this website before, so it is not a problem. But I will be very short of time, as explained in my post above. I will try whenever I can to find a slot to do some more.

Kind Regards.

 

[SOCRATES]

Only 15 days eh. We'll miss your enthusiasm of expression. Some intersting remarks in that last post.
Be well if you feel you have to go.
Cheers to you.
Julian.

I am overwhelmed with a project that will keep me very busy right to the end of 1998, as far as I can envisage. It needs my undivided attention. For this reason I will not have the freedom to post as frequently as of this year. I will do my best to visit and comment from time to time.

Kind Regards and Thanks for Your Good Wishes, Much Appreciated.

 

[User]

I said in my post on this thread, number 1341 yesterday, that the Dow had a cap at between 10500 and 10520.

The Dow was actually sitting at 10546 at the close on 07/04/05. You say on 07/04/05 that the Dow is capped at 10500-520. Surely the Dow dealt with your problematic area on Thursday.

You disagreed with me and reasoned the market was likely to go higher.

I didn't specifically reason with you but yes I did believe the market will rise for Friday. Of course the market didn't rise it fell 80 odd points. But I can fully justify my trades.

Obviously I was wrong and well I can't be right all the time but I still had a nice profitable week overall. The reason why I thought the market would rise on 08/04/05 is given in chart format below.

but the fact of the matter is that the Dow has a cap at around this level (500 to 520) that it is struggling with and that is why I am out on the long side for today.

Yes you weren't long but hope you caught the short.

I have promised Chartman not to predict. This is why my comments are guarded but I make my drift patently obvious, but of course you are too busy contradicting to percieve this.

I may contradict with members but I also agree with members. In all honesty I am young at 21 years of age and yes I learn something everyday but I am assertive in my trading decisions. I also learn daily in the form of experience and at this moment in time I don't have to perceive anything from you as I am doing great with my trading life.

I do have a busy life as I juggle with numerous commitments. I will most probably trade full time when I finish university. I do try my best in sharing my views and contribute to this thread and hopefully some members read and benefit from my work.

Socrates I am sure some members benefit from your literal posts. Obviously you are busy with your project as you have mentioned but please try your best to spare some time so that you can help other newbies as you will agree that starting this game from scratch can be a ruthless task.

To all that read and contribute to this thread:

This thread does promote debate and it is great to see other members participating. Questions are welcome and I am sure you will get contradicting answers. A market comprises of many who have contradicting stances to one another but that is what makes a market.

This thread is not a competition! I stress on this matter and if any of you would like to compete then please enter the share and Dow competitions. This thread is to obviously find out where the Dow is heading! It is pleasing to see more members making a contribution but more importantly this thread is to help newbies.

Please contribute to this thread in a friendly manner and yes trading can be competitive but remember this thread should offer help to those that require it.

 

[SOCRATES]

But I do contribute in a friendly manner because I tell it as it is for your benefit.
My manner of posting would be unfriendly if I resorted to posting absolute bull**** and endless wandering inconsequential drivel, and fibs.It happens that there is too much nonsense bandied about this topic for my liking.

Kind Regards As Usual.

 

[SOCRATES]

By the way, this is guaranteed to upset the apple cart with unohoo next door...cheers !

 

[User]

But I do contribute in a friendly manner because I tell it as it is for your benefit.
My manner of posting would be unfriendly if I resorted to posting absolute bull**** and endless wandering inconsequential drivel, and fibs.It happens that there is too much nonsense bandied about this topic for my liking.

Kind Regards As Usual.

My apologies, my last sentence wasn't aimed towards you, instead I was generally talking to everybody that reads this thread.

But I do contribute in a friendly manner because I tell it as it is for your benefit.

I think its fair to let individuals decide if your comments provide benefit to them or not.

Good luck with your project

 

[SOCRATES]

I think its fair to let individuals decide if your comments provide benefit to them or not.

User, you do not seem to get my drift.

My comments are the result of very long experience.

They are offered within a framework of morality, logical deduction and reason.

They would be guaranteed not to offer any benefit if they were offered within a framework of
immorality, guesswork and unreason.

The majority of individuals are not in a position of sufficient expertise to decide this, as they operate in a scenario in which they are not allowed to know that they don't know, and that,
is the problem.

Kind Regards.

 

[TheBramble]

I am overwhelmed with a project that will keep me very busy right to the end of 1998...

...Do you need a DeLorean by any chance...?

 

[hariab]

hey all,
wats every1s feelin on today??? I personally feel that if we get oil rise dropping after comments over weekend, and no real shockers on earnings, we could be seeing 10550 again today????? Be a struggle between 10500 and 10520, but this will be a test on traders mood whether they are feeling pessimistic or looking forward to the earnings and eco news out this week.

 

[Pat494]

Resistance = 10549
support = 10409
pivot = 10497
Some of my unreliable indicators say up and some say down so I guess it's sort of sideways

 

[SOCRATES]

...Do you need a DeLorean by any chance...?

Well spotted Bramble, I meant 2008 of course.

As for John DeLorean, does anyone know what became of him ?

In the late 1970's he left the Chrysler Corporation in Detroit, Michigan, to set up a car manufacturing enterprise of his own called DeLorean Cars and set up a small factory in Nothern Ireland. This was partly funded by the British Govt., eager to bring employment to the region that was depressed through years of conflict.

His design was for a very nice looking gull wing sports car. The enterprise ran into diffficulties and eventually shut down. I know about this because I met him briefly and two people I knew well went to work with him when Chrysler drastically scaled down its operations as a result of being taken over by Peugeot ~ Citroen, the French car manufacturing combination.

I also remember the ridiculous statement made in a car showroom in London at the time, that the car would not be popular since drivers would be frightened that if the car skidded off the road and ended up on its back and caught fire the doors could not be opened, hence frying the occupants before help could arrive. Just goes to show the ideas people are apt to get .

Amazing.

KInd Regards.

 

[jonnyy40]

He recently died

 

[SOCRATES]

I also met his wife, who was truly stunning and very charming, but I believe that the marriage foundered after the business collapsed and ended in divorce, very sad.

 

[kriesau]

Well spotted Bramble, I meant 2008 of course.

As for John DeLorean, does anyone know what became of him ?

In the late 1970's he left the Chrysler Corporation in Detroit, Michigan, to set up a car manufacturing enterprise of his own called DeLorean Cars and set up a small factory in Nothern Ireland. This was partly funded by the British Govt., eager to bring employment to the region that was depressed through years of conflict.

His design was for a very nice looking gull wing sports car. The enterprise ran into diffficulties and eventually shut down. I know about this because I met him briefly and two people I knew well went to work with him when Chrysler drastically scaled down its operations as a result of being taken over by Peugeot ~ Citroen, the French car manufacturing combination.

I also remember the ridiculous statement made in a car showroom in London at the time, that the car would not be popular since drivers would be frightened that if the car skidded off the road and ended up on its back and caught fire the doors could not be opened, hence frying the occupants before help could arrive. Just goes to show the ideas people are apt to get .

Amazing.

KInd Regards.

He died after a stroke last month having been declared bankrupt a few years ago. He was still fighting his lawyers who were seeking to acquire control of his remaining assets and liquidate them to settle his legal fees. His last marriage also ended in divorce after he was busted for a drugs deal in 1984 (he was subsequently acquitted). His last venture was selling DMC branded stainless steel watches on the internet for $3500 each.

 

[kriesau]

Hey User & Socrates - you both make interesting and insightful contributions to this board. This is not a competition, its all of us individually and collectively trying to surf the trend and make money, whether on daytrades or on longer positions or both.
The satisfaction in being right is that you make money for yourself and have maybe helped others to do the same. There is nothing to be gained by bickering.

User - You have an amazing degree of maturity and knowledge for someone aged 21.
Socrates - your insights are valuable and I hope that you continue to post here.

Back to business - whats the view for today ? I'm went short on the Dow at 10525 and short on the Nasdaq 100 at 1490 last week. Daily Dow Cash futures are up around 15 points from Fridays close.

Looks like the budget deficit report for March which is due out on Tuesday may be a catalyst this week together with a series og company reports. I guess that GE will be closely watched.

I'm still very bearish about the Dow but we could still see a short term rally with resistance at 10570. If it can't break and consolidate above 10500 then we could be back tested support at around 10370 - 10400. Thats my take - any other views would be very welcome.

 

[User]

kriesau I'm not sure if we move lower or higher for today but the support areas are 10450-400 and 10370.

Where do we move from here? Well at this moment in time we moved higher at the start of last week and then lost 80 odd points. We are now sitting on the top of the downward sloping trendline. Any upward action from here will secure the case for upward action for April.

April is one of the strongest months in the 1st year of the presidential cycle. The Vix also came back some what on Friday so there may be room for limited upside.

I also believe we will breach 10400 at some point this year and will also touch 2004 lows. For now though I still feel higher action will be seen.

Lets see how todays session develops.

Good luck.

Please have a look at the chart attached.

 

[peterpr]

COT's again! At every short-term cyclical bottom for the past 12 months or so, total open interest for the combined ES, SP, DJ, & YM contracts has been well below average with commercials neutral/long. That's exactly how things stood last week. Subsequent below average volume on the index consituents proper and well below average on the futures means there won't have been much change since it was published. In other words its saying that we are close to or at a bottom of sorts.

Granted many of the other bellweather indices look ugly but, in spite of Friday's sell off, I'm expecting a significant rally - say a couple of hundred points or so - before any confirmed break below the DJIA 10370ish support. After that? well a waterfall decline would not surprise.

However, please note - I won't be trading ANY of that. It simply forms the backdrop to what I do trade, which is real-time price action

The chart shows the Larger DOW futures contract - the other three are similar.

 

[lemput]

have to agree with kriesau: the board is good and it provides us with a chance to transmit our opinions and get a decent counter measure to our own ideas.
As to the dow, am I the only one who has no particular view of the dow and am just waiting for a break either way? Quite strange as normally I have ideas to what I think is going to happen, yet right now I have little clue and hence I have not traded it for 2 weeks. I am sure though that we will soon make a run for a break but for me it is a 50/50 where we go.