Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[User]

Hi all, I've been busy the last week or so and haven't contributed much. Anyway nice to see some newbie’s posting on the thread.

The Dow closed the day higher and made intraday moves towards 10350 region. Ending above 10400 signifies the strength of support.

As the Dow is oversold a move towards 10600 seems very likely. I went long on the Dow at 10370. I will add to that position. A close below this years low will give an extension to this downward move that we have seen. However that does not seem likely at this moment in time.

I have stated many times in this thread that we will visit the 2004 lows this year and I still feel confident however a move higher from here shouldn't be ruled out. A top for the year is now in place and 11,000 will not occur in my opinion. A move towards 10600 is a realistic target that I feel will be seen in the coming sessions. 10700-10850-70 region are also levels that can be seen but will be problematic areas should we approach them.

 

[sumathik]

hi user
since we are trading below 10650 test of 10000-10200 is given imho. but expecting a bounce to test 10550-10600. only a close above 10650 will lead us to 10800.
looks like we might trade the 10880--10180 range untill we break either way which should bring 11400 /9600.

 

[GKB]

I think I have yet to hear an analyst on bloomberg or cnbc finish his commentry by saying something like, "I expect the market to decline by X% this year."

Hi,
I only rarely add to the threads these days, but read them often.
FWIW, Stephen Hochberg (EWI) has been saying just that.

Kind regards,

Graham

 

[tradesmart]

The Dow has formed a divergent RSI/CCI bottom at c10360 which preceded a trend reversal when the same setup occurred at 9700 in October and also at 10360 in January.

The 200 point height of the current expanding consolidation 360/560 hints at a target to fill the gap that was left around 750ish should an upside break above 560 occur, but the expanding range may be considered bearish until 560 is broken imho.

 

[Pat494]

Some are forecasting oil at $100 + surely this alone will dampen markets, although I suppose it is the same for all the oil-needy nations. A poke in the eye for Uncle Sam ???

 

[tradesmart]

Some are forecasting oil at $100 +

Yes Goldman Sachs who last week suddenly predicted an oil price “super spike” to over $100/b just when the market was starting to fall..........

It is well known that Goldman’s are heavily long on oil and have reportedly acquired huge interests in the commodity including oil fields, so plainly it is in their interests to ‘talk-up’ the market and unfortunately they appear to have the power to do so......

Some observers have described this as “irresponsible” and I am inclined to agree…..

 

[User]

Dow currently trying to stabalise around 10450 and a test of 10500 later in the session seems likely.

 

[tradesmart]

Dow currently trying to stabilise around 10450 and a test of 10500 later in the session seems likely.

Yes User - having bounced off of the lows yesterday the market is in a tighter range today with a bias to the upside so far....

Probably a holding pattern prior to the EIA Petroleum Status report at 15.30bst tomorrow - there are apparently some hopes that the report will be stock friendly and oil will deflate somewhat....

It was doing that last week until Goldmans played their "$100 spike" card....what have they got left up their sleeves I wonder.......?

One of their analysts will probably spot $175 through his long range telescope........ :cheesy:

 

[User]

TS do you think we'll touch 10500? Will we close below 10500 or above it today?

I think that we have the potential to close above 10500 today.

 

[tradesmart]

User - I suspect that the cash wants to at least test 490 which has been a strong S/R level, but the market is fixated by the intraday oil price......if oil rallies stocks fall and vice versa.....

 

[roguetrader]

Very choppy, divergence between NYSE and Naz internals causing a problem, TRIN at .78 on NYSE while Naz over 1

 

[User]

Finally we may play with the days highs as opec makes an announcement! A chance to reach 10500

 

[peterpr]

The YM contract has been rangebound centred above and below the daily pivot R1 resistance and the weekly pivot. Price action has pretty much ignored both of them - which is unusual. Interesting to note that the last reported total COT position on both DOW contracts was at a historically low level, with the commercials favouring shorts. That gives the 'Plunge Prevention Team' a lot of room for manouver if they want to engineer a serious rally.

My own indicators say we ought to see a bit more down-side first though - but I'm not betting the ranch on it.

 

[tradesmart]

Alan to the rescue....?

(strange....!..... )

Greenspan: crude inventories could ease price frenzy
WASHINGTON-- Fed chief Alan Greenspan said the current spike in oil prices may not be long-lived. Greenspan noted that futures prices for delivery of oil for summer delivery exceed spot prices. "That will likely support increased inventories of crude oil. If sustained, these market technicals could encourage enough of an inventory buffer to damp the current price frenzy," Greenspan said in a speech prepared for delivery Tuesday for the National Petrochemical and Refiners Association.

 

[peterpr]

Alan to the rescue....?
(strange....!..... )

Looks like the markets have finally got him sussed though - half-hearted spike to 10495 on the YM followed by a 50 point plummet - and counting

 

[peterpr]

Ignore last post - back to equilibrium again - One thing's certain: he sure as hell makes the markets nervous - can't seem to decide exactly what it is he's saying I guess

 

[tradesmart]

half-hearted spike to 10495 on the YM followed by a 50 point plummet

They had to fill that lower gap somehow Peter.......and taking out stops must have had some appeal......this is the exchange MM's at work.......

(and they only had to sell 5000 contracts to do it...)

straight back up again now.......

I see that May crude has fallen following Alan's remarks closing just above $56 - all the stock bulls need is a +ve inventory report tomorrow.....

 

[peterpr]

They had to fill that lower gap somehow Peter.......and taking out stops must have had some appeal......this is the exchange MM's at work.......

Agreed - their footprints were all over Friday's action too - after which I speculated about a corresponding bull trap. Not convinced this is it yet though. Too many indicators in relatively neutral territory still for a significant bottom IMHO - time enough yet in this session I guess but things look too choppy for a convincing upside resolution before the close (to me anyway).

Having committed that to a post, it will no doubt be 'eat my hat' time shortly - Cause and effect and all that

 

[roguetrader]

Volume coming in slightly ahead of yesterday on the Nas and lighter on the NYSE. All in all a choppy sloppy day imho

 

[ducati998]

Market Internals
Issues...................................................... NYSE..................................... Nasdaq
Advancing ...............................................1,829 ........................................1,470
Declining ................................................1,398 .........................................1,504
Unchanged ...............................................143 ............................................162
Total........................................................ 3,370......................................... 3,136

Ratio
Advancers to Decliners ........................1.31.............................................. 0.98

Volume
Advancing .......................................684,079,000 .............................690,415,000
Declining ........................................430,301,000 .............................615,686,000
Unchanged...................................... 10,747,000 ................................29,083,000
Total .............................................1,125,127,000 ..........................1,335,184,000


Indexes
Dow ...........................................................................................10,455.80 +34.66
Nasdaq.......................................................................................... 1,997.70 +6.63
S&P................................................................................................. 1,180.53 +4.41
10-Yr Note..................................................................................... 96.25.....Yield: -0.09........4.470%

Kinda feels bullish to me, not today, but setting up for a bit of a trot up later in the week?

cheers d998