Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[SOCRATES]

Does it really matter whether it goes up or down really now ? If it goes up you buy it, if it goes down you sell it, and if it goes sideways you abstain. Why this endless discussion, and for what porpoise ? (typo deliberately not altered).

 

[tradesmart]

Yes, people and porpoises are beginning to suspect that the bottoming process may not be complete yet. After such severe falls as we've seen recently, several rally attempts may fail before one succeeds; probably from quite a bearish fake out low, possibly just below prior 'support' levels to shake out weak longs and suck in late shorts....purely speculative comment, but this is the scenario that often plays out.....

This article and comment echoes my own view.....

But momentum faded in the last hour, with only the two blue-chip indicators able to hang on to gains by the close.

The weak trading volume throughout the session spoke to the lack of conviction on the part of buyers, noted Barry Ritholtz, market strategist at Maxim Group.

"We got a little too bearish, so we bounced, but we didn't get bearish enough to really bring in much in the way of buyers," he added. "The breadth has been just OK and the volume anemic. That tells me this bounce is not going to last much longer."

What should help the bounce extend at least to Thursday is the upbeat news announced after the bell, Ritholtz said. "I expect the market to rally on the news tomorrow," he added.

 

[aspex]

"Several rally attempts may fail before one succeeds; probably from quite a bearish fake out low, possibly just below prior 'support' levels to shake out weak longs and suck in late shorts."
..........and exactly the same may occur to get a new lower trend. Perhaps it may be a good idea to turn the graph upside down occasionally

 

[ChowClown]

I read with interest over on another channel one chap's Gann Cycle analysis targeting 9550 by the end of June '05, snowballing from mid April against poor econ reports.

Anyone else have a similar Gann analysis?

 

[roguetrader]

Does it really matter whether it goes up or down really now ? If it goes up you buy it, if it goes down you sell it, and if it goes sideways you abstain. Why this endless discussion, and for what porpoise ? (typo deliberately not altered).

No I don't suppose it does matter really, but then what harm does it do? For people passing through these boards maybe it provides a plesant island in a sea of abuse. (slight exageration I know) So why not just let it go on on its unoffensive, minding its own business way.
Yes it probably makes for quite boring reading compared to the endless threads with people attacking each other, worrying about who is and who isn't making money. But as I say what harm does it do?

 

[SOCRATES]

Two lovely hot dogs with mustard and a spendid mug of tea have miraculously appeared before me. Give me a chance to deal with them, and I will come back to you with regard to the above and porpoises and pleasant islands etc.,

 

[SOCRATES]

It does no harm at all roguetrader if you are a battle hardened expert in this profession, but it can do a lot of harm if you are not.

In any other proffession sharing is the route, but not in trading.

Trading is a lonely occupation, for this reason many traders like to break the monotony of looking at screens and pressing buttons by engaging in something allied to trading, but different, I concede.

However, the route to mastery is not via sharing, but the opposite. This in humanistic terms is viewed as a cruel imposition.

In trading terms isolation and self reflection are the keys that open the doors to realisations. These realisations are crucial for aspiring traders to progress. Sharing blunts progress. It prevents self examination and deep introspection.

Once all that needs to be achieved has been achieved, then all else is a luxury.

Another problem that arises is that sharing induces opinions that become stored subconsciously, and this is something no trader can afford to be plagued with, but a trap very easy to fall into.

KInd Regards.

 

[peterpr]

It does no harm at all roguetrader if you are a battle hardened expert in this profession, but it can do a lot of harm if you are not.

In any other proffession sharing is the route, but not in trading.

Trading is a lonely occupation, for this reason many traders like to break the monotony of looking at screens and pressing buttons by engaging in something allied to trading, but different, I concede.

However, the route to mastery is not via sharing, but the opposite. This in humanistic terms is viewed as a cruel imposition.

In trading terms isolation and self reflection are the keys that open the doors to realisations. These realisations are crucial for aspiring traders to progress. Sharing blunts progress. It prevents self examination and deep introspection.

Once all that needs to be achieved has been achieved, then all else is a luxury.

Another problem that arises is that sharing induces opinions that become stored subconsciously, and this is something no trader can afford to be plagued with, but a trap very easy to fall into.

KInd Regards.

Don't have issues with any of that; but your first post displayed irritation. Why on earth should it bother you that people go wandering off up blind alleys etc (unless you're an old softee with a nannying urge that is). It's all part of what it takes to become a 'battle hardened pro' as you put it IMHO. In any event, I reckon the more amateurs there are losing money the better; long may there remain a constant stream of them I say - makes maintaining an edge that much easier for those who depend on it for a living.

 

[TheBramble]

Another problem that arises is that sharing induces opinions that become stored subconsciously, and this is something no trader can afford to be plagued with, but a trap very easy to fall into.

You are absolutely right Socco and I may well have done a disservice to some with my view on what the Dow may or may not do.

I'll leave my transgression in place as a permanent marker to the foibles and lack of consideration that can beset even the most gifted of mortals.

On the other hand, if the Dow does hit 10459 before the week is out, you still owe me a fiver

 

[vocalist]

Dow having lots of trouble with 10500,not just breaking it but also staying above.Really needs a good hourly close above this I would have thought.

 

[SOCRATES]

I will gladly send you a fiver if that will please you, but the fact of the matter is that the Dow has a cap at around this level (500 to 520) that it is struggling with and that is why I am out on the long side for today.
Now teatime.

 

[SOCRATES]

Don't have issues with any of that; but your first post displayed irritation. Why on earth should it bother you that people go wandering off up blind alleys etc (unless you're an old softee with a nannying urge that is). It's all part of what it takes to become a 'battle hardened pro' as you put it IMHO. In any event, I reckon the more amateurs there are losing money the better; long may there remain a constant stream of them I say - makes maintaining an edge that much easier for those who depend on it for a living.

Yes, I agree with you entirely. However, I will admit, that, against my better judgement I am an old softy at heart and I do not like to hear stories of people who are doing their best of having to suffer pain unnecessarily. What I mean is that they don't have to go looking for it. In my view they are likely to encounter it more readily if they succumb to the temptation to try to share, because sharing is not the route. The problem with this kind of sharing is that it induces subconscious opinions that are so subliminal that they get in the way of accepting what there is rather than part of popular concensus.

Traders ought to disregard the majority popular opinion, because it frequently proves to be wrong. This applies to lots of things. The ability to make up one's mind independently is impaired by inappropriate discussion, however well meant or intentioned. The implanting of opinions as a consequence is a nuisance not easily got rid of. It tends to stimulate difficulty with correctly rationalising what is presented in order to deal with it unemotionally, it has the effect of locking people into having difficulty with accepting what is, rather than what might be wished for or even imagined as a consequence of not becoming insulated against such perils.

This does not mean that interesting discussions at a high level of expertise are unwelcome,
to the contrary. But endless discussion in closed loops, guesswork, and opinion is detrimental to keeping a supercooled head, in my view.

A supercooled head, untainted by any of these perils is the desired mental state, and not the opposite. It cannot be maintained if bombarded by ideas that carry with them the virus of emotions arrived at via opinions. This is because opinions have the insidious ability to disable reason, logical deduction, and what is most important, the ability to act in accordance with logical deduction and reasoning.

And all of this above is not an opinion, it is a view, which is a very different proposition indeed.

Kind Regards As Usual.

 

[User]

Final hour or so of trading needs to be watched. A close below 10500 today would be bearish and could well be the start of a new leg down. For now I'm still long from the other day and at this moment in time I feel we are just about to test 10540-50.

 

[peterpr]

Yes, I agree with you entirely. However, I will admit, that, against my better judgement I am an old softy at heart and I do not like to hear stories of people who are doing their best of having to suffer pain unnecessarily.... <snip>

No problem with all of that post either, particularly

The problem with this kind of sharing is that it induces subconscious opinions that are so subliminal that they get in the way of accepting what there is rather than part of popular concensus.

But I still think the kind of thing we're discussing is inevitable. It's also an inevitable part of finding a way through to a consistent, profitable trading style and system IMHO.

Getting burned - even badly (figuratively speaking) is potentially the most thorough learning experience available and I don't see how anyone can expect to make a consistent living trading without at least a few such experiences. I had a another minor one myself today. Left a protected short position on the LIFFE last night and didn't log in this morning until 8:45 - Bam! LIFFE Xchange down, all pending orders cancelled and footsie airborn - Could have been a lot worse though.

 

[roguetrader]

Socrates, taken in isolation the statments throughout your posts are in my opinion for the most part accurate, however when one puts them all together the picture becomes somewhat confused.
In your first post the impression you gave seemed to be one of mild irritation that nothing of any real consequence was being discussed. Conclusion: Nothing on this thread is of any real benefit to anyone.

The next post seems concerned to point out that traders shouldn't give away their knowledge, their edge, their secrets. (Look out for number 1) though if one feels the need to discuss the market, that is probably best acheived by discussing, nothing of any consequence. Then oddly is worried at the end that someone less experienced might succumb to detremental bias from this. In the spirit of Looking after number 1, who cares?

Your concern for the damage that such discussions might cause the inexperienced is commendable, but trading is a survival of the fittest and if the fittest by their actions cause damage to the weaker then so be it. That is how it is, has been, and will be, long after youand I are gone

 

[User]

For now I'm still long from the other day and at this moment in time I feel we are just about to test 10540-50.

So we hit the 10540-50 region.

I've closed my long at 10553.

10550 could well give some resistance. I may be buying back on a dip as we all know that we have moved from 10350 too 10550 but the Dow hasn't moved up in smooth fashion. 10600 should be a difficult level and I do feel we will see 10600 maybe tomarrow. That would be interesting as we would be around 300 points away from the highs of the year and the 300 points or so from the lows of the year.

 

[User]

Buying at 10527, we've seen the dip from the resistance I talked about at 10550.

Now we have the potential off closing above 10550.

But as I mentioned before: the last hour of trading needs to be seen closely today. As if we see some sell action which brings the Dow down near to 10500 then we can assume that this wave of downward action is not over and if we close at the highs which I think we could then that will indicate some range consolidation or upward action for the rest of April.

 

[RUDEBOY]

User, good man, i like it!

 

[trendie]

a beginners question!!

over the past 3 days, the price has risen.
over the past 3 days, volume has fallen.

does this mean this rally is a weak one, and the down direction should recommence ?

(have started to read up on volume as a means of confirming price moves)

 

[SOCRATES]

a beginners question!!

over the past 3 days, the price has risen.
over the past 3 days, volume has fallen.

does this mean this rally is a weak one, and the down direction should recommence ?

(have started to read up on volume as a means of confirming price moves)

Not necessarily.